========= ============ ============ ========= ===========  ========= =========

Magnitude Probability  Probability  Number of Estimated    Estimated  Total
of Differ of correctly that detect- total     cost of      cost of    cost
ence Risk identifying  ed risk      subjects  epidemio-    micro-     excluding
to be     a risk when  could be due required  logical      biologi-   overhead
Detected  a risk does, to chance              study        cal study  and pro-
          in face,     alone and not          component    component  fessional
          exist        to an actual           (1992        (1992      services
                        risk                  dollar)at    dollar)    (1992
                                              $3,702                  dollars)
                                              per 1000
                                              completed
========= ============ ============ ========= ===========  ========= =========
              I - b           a         N     encounters 
========= ============ ============ ========= ===========  ========= =========
100%           .80           .05       9,200  $    34,058  $ 50,000  $  84,058
(2-fold        .90           .05      12,314  $    45,586  $ 50,000  $  95,586
increase)      .95           .05      15,231  $    56,385  $ 50,000  $  106,385
               .99           .05      21,533  $    79,715  $ 50,000  $  129,715
               .80           .01      13,690  $    50,680  $ 50,000  $  100,680
               .90           .01      17,440  $    64,563  $ 50,000  $  114,563
               .95           .01      20,881  $    77,601  $ 50,000  $  127,601
               .99           .01      28,167  $   104,272  $ 50,000  $  154,272

50%            .80           .05      33,324  $   123,365  $ 50,000  $  173,365
increase       .90           .05      44,608  $   165,139  $ S0,000  $  215,139
               .95           .05      55,177  $   204,265  $ 50,000  $  254,265
               .99           .05      77,991  $   288,723  $ 50,000  $  338,723
               .80           .01      49,584  $   183,560  $ 50,000  $  223,560
               .90           .01      63,171  $   233,859  $ 50,000  $  283,859
               .95           .01      75,632  $   279,990  $ 50,000  $  329,990
               .99           .01     102,028  $   377,708  $ 50,000  $  427,708

25%            .80           .05     142,335  $   526,924  $ 50,000 $   576,924
increase       .90           .05     190,537  $   705,368  $ 50,000 $   755,368
               .95           .05     235,665  $   872,432  $ 50,000 $   922,432
               .99           .05     333,163  $ 1,233,369  $ 50,000 $ 1,283,369
               .80           .01     211,788  $   784,039  $ 50,000 $   834,039
               .90           .01     269,818  $   998,866  $ 50,000 $ 1,048,866
               .95           .01     323,042  $ 1,195,901  $ 50,000 $ 1,245,901
               .99           .01     435,781  $ 1,615,261  $ 50,000 $ 1,663,261


