000 AXHW70 PHFO 102004 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-112200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1005 AM HST THU JAN 10 2013 ...WET TRADES EASE WINDWARD DRYNESS WHILE LEEWARD DROUGHT EXPANDS IN MAUI COUNTY... SYNOPSIS... WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS BROUGHT AMPLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE EAST-FACING SLOPES. PERIODS OF STRONG TRADE WINDS HELPED BLOW RAINFALL INTO SOME OF THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINED VERY DRY. THIS PERSISTENT LEEWARD DRYNESS PRODUCED AN EXPANSION OF EXTREME DROUGHT...OR D3 CATEGORY CONDITIONS IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...IN PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. ON THE ISLAND OF MAUI...THE D3 AREA OVER KIHEI SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO LOWER KULA AND EASTWARD INTO ULUPALAKUA AND KAUPO. ON MOLOKAI...THE EXISTING EXTREME DROUGHT AREA OVER WESTERN MOLOKAI SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT...THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT...THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF HUALALAI IN THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST KAU. ON KAUAI...THE AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...DECREASED OVER THE PAST MONTH AND IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH KAUAI FROM POIPU TO HANAPEPE. SEVERE DROUGHT ALSO CONTINUED OVER WEST OAHU FROM NANAKULI TO MAKAHA...THE LOWER LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE HUMUULA SADDLE REGION OF THE BIG ISLAND. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS HELPED IMPROVE PASTURE CONDITIONS BUT FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR FULL RECOVERY. RANCHERS WILL NOT YET RESTOCK PASTURES UNTIL PASTURES IMPROVE FURTHER. OAHU. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION REMAIN IN POOR CONDITION OVER THE LEEWARD WAIANAE RANGE AS MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS OCCURRED MOSTLY OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE. WEST OAHU RANCHERS DESTOCKED PASTURES SEVERAL MONTHS AGO DUE TO POOR GRAZING CONDITIONS. MOLOKAI. VERY POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS IN WEST MOLOKAI HAVE SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. RANCHERS HAVE BEEN CULLING HERDS AT A GREATER THAN NORMAL RATE. THE WATER LEVEL IN THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR INCREASED A FEW FEET OVER THE PAST MONTH BUT REMAINS VERY LOW. THUS...THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS CONTINUED A MANDATORY 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION. LANAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE DECEMBER 6 UPDATE. EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED THAT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH-...EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SLOPES...WERE VERY DRY AND PLANTS AND ANIMALS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE. MAUI. LEEWARD MAUI WAS VERY DRY OVER THE PAST MONTH CAUSING POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER KULA...ULUPALAKUA AND KAUPO AREAS. RANCHERS HAVE BEEN CULLING HERDS AT A GREATER THAN NORMAL RATE IN THESE AREAS. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY CONTINUED ITS LONG STANDING REQUEST FOR A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE FOR UPCOUNTRY RESIDENTS. THE REQUEST FOR A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI RESIDENTS ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. IN EARLY DECEMBER WAILUKU RIVER AT RAINBOW FALLS STOPPED FLOWING BUT RESUMED BY MID-DECEMBER AND AVERAGE FLOW WAS RECENTLY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR FOR PASTURES AND NON-IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN MOST OF THE KAU AND LEEWARD KOHALA SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON DECEMBER 20 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT PROBABILITIES FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY BUT DO NOT TILT IN FAVOR OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE WET SEASON AFTERWARD. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON JANUARY 17. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DATA FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHOWED THAT MOST OF THE MONITORED STREAMS ON THE BIG ISLAND...KAUAI AND MAUI HAD FLOW AVERAGES IN THE NORMAL RANGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OAHU FLOW AVERAGES WERE BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO MONITORED STREAMS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN THE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT AREAS. AVERAGE STREAM FLOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVELS EXCEPT FOR OAHU WHERE FLOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE LONG LEAD PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...AND SEASONAL CONSIDERATIONS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 7 2013 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...HAWAII.GOV/DLNR/DROUGHT/INDEX.HTML USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HAWAII.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$