045 AXGM70 PGUM 021425 CCA DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-090600- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...RESEND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1210 PM CHST TUE JUL 2 2013 ...SEASONAL TRADE-WIND SHOWERS HAVE RESUMED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT... THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS (RMI) CABINET ISSUED A STATE OF DISASTER ON MAY 8TH FOR THE NORTHERN RMI...WHICH WAS ELEVATED FROM THE PREVIOUS STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED ON 19 FEBRUARY. THE CABINET RENEWED THE DISASTER DECLARATION ON THE 7TH OF JUNE. THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OVER 6,300 PEOPLE AND A FULL RECOVERY WILL TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS. AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI) AND GUAM ALONG WITH CHUUK AND YAP STATES IN THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL AND NEAR-SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING WEEKS. SYNOPSIS... ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ARE PREDICTED TO LAST INTO THE FALL. TRADE WINDS HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS RECENTLY ON PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN ATOLL TO WAKE ISLAND BETWEEN 9 AND 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 160 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. SHORT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT MOST CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FALL AND A NEAR NORMAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING WEEKS. RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF 9N...INCLUDING BIKINI... ENEWETAK...RONGELAP...RONGERIK...AILUK...ALINGINAE...LIKIEP... WOTJE...MEJIT ISLAND AND UTIRIK. ATOLLS BETWEEN 8N AND 9N...SUCH AS NAMU AND MALOELAP...SHOULD RECEIVE SEASONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SUMMER AND ATOLLS FROM MAJURO AND AILINGALAPLAP SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. A SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FOR GUAM ALONG WITH ROTA... TINIAN AND SAIPAN OF THE CNMI AND FOR YAP STATE. THE NORTHERN AREAS OF CHUUK STATE...INCLUDING NAMONUITO ATOLL AND THE HALL ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE SUMMER. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO AND ARNO... TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE HELPING WATER SUPPLIES ON MAJURO AND ARNO. LATEST INFORMATION FOR MAJURO AND THE MAJURO RESERVOIR INDICATE THERE ARE ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO AND AILINGALAPLAP... A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THE CHANCE FOR MORE FREQUENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS...SO PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO CAPTURE THE RAINFALL. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED CONSIDERABLE AGRICULTURE ON MANY ATOLLS OF THE NORTHERN RMI AND SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD MAY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE WELL WATER IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS HAS BECOME TOO SALTY FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO DILUTE AND REPLENISH SALTY AQUIFERS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RMI SENT OUT DROUGHT ASSESSMENT TEAMS THAT REPORTED VERY SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGES...ALONG WITH DAMAGED OR DESTROYED FOOD CROPS AND DETERIORATING HEALTH IN MANY LOCATIONS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... MAJURO AND ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR THE MORTLOCKS AND CHUUK LAGOON... FOR YAP ISLAND AND YAP STATE ATOLLS...AND FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE AND THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE. COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI) AND GUAM... WATER RESOURCES SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE IN THE CNMI AND ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE ON GUAM. THE MAJOR IMPACT FROM VERY DRY WEATHER WAS GRASS FIRES...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR THE CNMI AND GUAM. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE RAINFALL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE COMING WEEKS. SOME REGIONAL RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE MARSHALL ISLANDS MAJURO... 2.42 10.44 5.13 6.46 6.60 10.55 KWAJALEIN... 1.22 0.46 1.73 9.34 1.97 4.66 UTIRIK... 1.91 1.19 0.37 0.19 0.55 4.77 WOTJE... 0.42 0.12 0.12 1.27 1.17 5.67 CHUUK STATE FANANU... 3.10 2.41 4.87 3.93 6.03 ~12.00 ONUON... 9.26 2.13 6.06 4.18 4.20 10.53 YAP STATE YAP... 5.72 5.86 5.95 2.81 5.41 16.16 ULITHI... 3.24 4.81 3.23 4.05 3.78 10.93 WOLEAI... 6.89 9.39 3.05 9.19 10.03 13.15 CNMI SAIPAN... 4.83 2.78 2.40 1.65 4.82 5.68 TINIAN... 6.80 2.10 5.30 0.60 5.36 3.05 ROTA... 3.91 2.78 3.53 1.74 3.81 3.92 GUAM... 5.12 2.95 3.95 1.14 3.51 6.32 TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... A NEAR-SEASONAL PATTERN OF CLOUD CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO ATOLL AS OF JULY 2ND... VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO INDICATE THE SPOTTY NATURE OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. MAJURO WILL BE WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO AS OF JULY 2ND... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL AT TIMES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE RMI IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE UTIRIK... RONGELAP AND ENEWETAK AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WOTJE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO AS OF JULY 2ND... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN RMI WITH DRIER WEATHER PERSISTING SOUTH TOWARD THE TARAWA AREA. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO BUT NORTH OF BUTARITARI AND TARAWA. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... CHUUK STATE AS OF JULY 2ND... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN THE COMING DAYS AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CHUUK STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. YAP STATE AS OF JULY 2ND... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR MOST OF YAP STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CNMI AND GUAM AS OF JULY 2ND... NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY WITH TOTALS OF A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. OTHER IMPACTS... THE JULY 1ST CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF ALERT AND WARNING AREAS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PALAU...YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO CHUUK STATE. CONCERNED PEOPLE OF MICRONESIA SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. RAINFALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MONITORED AND CONCERNED PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR ANY LATER WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT CHUUK...YAP...PALAU...POHNPEI AND MAJURO...AND THE USAID/OFDA SUBREGIONAL OFFICE IN MAJURO. WE ALSO THANK THE MAYOR OF WOTJE ATOLL AND KWAJALEIN RTS WEATHER PEOPLE FOR THEIR IMPORTANT INPUT. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ SIMPSON/GUARD