000 AXGM70 PGUM 040118 DGTGUM GUZ001>004-180200 GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- PMZ161-PMZ171-172-PMZ181-180200- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-MAJURO- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1115 AM CHST THU FEB 4 2016 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING ACROSS MICRONESIA... ...STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR DROUGHT ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SYNOPSIS... THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MICRONESIA ARE CURRENTLY IN OR ENTERING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4 LEVELS). IN ADDITION...ONE OF THE STRONGEST EL NINOS IN HISTORY REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES FOR THE PACIFIC REGION. ANALYSIS OF THIS EL NINO EVENT COUPLED WITH CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF 2016...THEN WEAKEN TO NEUTRAL BY THE SUMMER MONTHS AND POSSIBLY TREND TOWARD LA NINA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE YEAR. INCREASINGLY DRY WEATHER IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS MICRONESIA. DROUGHT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MARIANA ISLANDS...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...BOTH YAP AND CHUUK STATES...AND THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT WILL LIKLEY BECOME DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR POHNPEI STATE AND POSSIBLE KOSRAE STATE. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET MONTH OR TWO FROM NOW THROUGH SPRING 2016...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AS 2016 PROGRESSES. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS.... THE MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME MUCH WORSE AND GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE. GUAM... RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME WORSE AND THE NUMBER OF GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING MONTHS. CHUUK STATE... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN CHUUK STATE WITH VERY LOW RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING MONTHS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF WENO. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF WENO MAY RECEIVE A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF CHUUK STATE DURING THE COMING WEEKS. FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU... KOROR AND BABELDAOB... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 3 MONTHS WAS VERY LOW...AND RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. GRASS FIRES...ESPECIALLY ON BABELDAOB...WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS. SOME YELLOWING OF VEGETATION ON THE ROCK ISLANDS COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU... RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING MONTHS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WORSE...ESPECIALLY FOR SONSOROL. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS. FOR YAP STATE.... YAP... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS YAP. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WAS BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS. YELLOWING OF VEGETATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. OUTLYING ISLANDS OF YAP STATE... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD AT NGULU...ULITHI...FAIS... FARAULEP...WOLEAI AND SATAWAL. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST AND RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF YAP STATE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. FOR THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MANY ATOLLS HAVE REQUESTED ASSISTANCE. FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... AREAS NEAR WOTJE...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE COMING MONTHS. DROUGHT WILL BECOME WORSE WITH VERY SPOTTY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. FOR MAJURO AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS... AREAS NEAR MAJURO...JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS IN THE COMING MONTHS BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS EL NINO WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE SUMMER AND POSSIBLY LA NINA CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SPRING 2016 BEFORE RAINFALL PATTERNS GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET MONTH OR TWO FROM NOW THROUGH THE SUMMER OF 2016...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... OCT NOV DEC DEC NORMAL JAN JAN NORMAL KOROR WSO 6.24 7.86 4.60 12.33 2.64 11.20 PELELIU 4.30 11.04 2.00 11.90 1.90 10.70 YAP WSO 5.29 3.31 4.93 9.28 2.23 7.30 ULITHI 6.28 3.24 7.44 7.12 1.29 6.23 WOLEAI 2.22 2.58 5.55 11.45 0.34 10.68 CHUUK 6.09 7.46 8.87 11.02 6.40 8.58 FANANU 3.90 5.27 2.09 M 2.59 M GUAM INTL AIRPORT 14.26 5.96 3.77 5.98 2.62 4.96 ROTA 15.45 5.54 4.93 3.04 5.28 TINIAN 30.76 2.81 6.89 2.14 6.20 SAIPAN 21.00 2.94 4.03 4.21 1.36 3.56 KWAJALEIN 11.71 9.98 3.90 7.94 2.02 5.12 JALUIT 4.51 4.35 8.62 11.01 4.57 10.66 WOTJE 8.60 2.57 1.84 7.70 TRACE 2.50 MAJURO 10.52 5.33 6.93 11.50 1.11 8.28 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA. THE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MICRONESIA IN THE COMING MONTHS. IN GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST OF THE COMMONWEALTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBE AND CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO AT LEAST. GUAM... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A QUARTER INCH UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. CHUUK STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS CHUUK STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. AREAS NEAR WENO...FANANU AND ULUL WILL BE DRIER THAN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND MAY RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF WENO COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU... KOROR... SHORT-TERM COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS VARIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER. OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. VERY LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS SUCH AS SONSOROL...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. YAP STATE... BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS ACROSS YAP STATE. SPECIFIC ISLANDS AFFECTED INCLUDE YAP ALONG WITH NGULU...ULITHI...FAIS...FARAULEP...WOLEAI AND SATAWAL. SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER. THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. NORTHERN AREAS NEAR WOTJE...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN SPOTTY TRADE- WIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AREAS NEAR MAJURO...JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP ATOLLS WILL BE VERY DRY AND RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL FROM LIGHT TRADE- WIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS DRY WEATHER SITUATION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18...2016 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ ...DROUGHT STATEMENT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND CHUUK STATE... PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ SIMPSON/WILLIAMS