000 AXGM70 PGUM 010138 DGTGUM PMZ173-PMZ174-150200 POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1130 AM CHST THU DEC 1 2016 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI OF POHNPEI STATE... SYNOPSIS... THE LA NINA ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017. THIS MEANS THAT TRADE WINDS WILL BE MORE DOMINANT OVER MICRONESIA AND DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM NEAR KAPINGAMARANGI EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA WILL ALSO BE AT RISK FOR DRY WEATHER. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES KAPINGAMARANGI REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND NUKUORO IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND KOSRAE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN THE COMING MONTHS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS.... POHNPEI STATE... KAPINGAMARANGI... LOCAL AUTHORITIES HAVE REQUESTED ASSISTANCE AND POHNPEI STATE GOVERNMENT HAS PROVIDED DESALINATORS AND BOTTLED WATER AND IS CONDUCTING FURTHER ASSESSMENTS. SHOWERS OCCURRED AT KAPINGAMARANGI THIS PAST WEEK AND A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...BUT MUCH DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS NEEDED. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED. NUKUORO... SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL AT NUKUORO THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. HELPFUL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FOR KOSRAE STATE.... KOSRAE... RAINFALL DURING THIS PAST MONTH WAS JUST ADEQUATE BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR KOSRAE. THIS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COMING MONTHS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK LA NINA PATTERN CURRENTLY AFFECTING MICRONESIA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY NEXT SUMMER. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT LOCATIONS WITHIN ABOUT 4 DEGREES OF THE EQUATOR. ALSO...OTHER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA NORTH OF 10N MAY BECOME VERY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THIS DRY SEASON. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEP OCT NOV NOV NOV TOTAL NORMAL % NORMAL KAPINGAMARANGI 7.61 2.14 6.58 8.19 80 NUKUORO 8.02 7.61 5.80 10.50 55 KOSRAE 12.71 9.87 7.76 13.31 58 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF 160E. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI AND NUKUORO IN SOUTHWEST POHNPEI STATE THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017. VERY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO LIKELY FOR KOSRAE AND FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING MONTHS. POHNPEI STATE... KAPINGAMARANGI... SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...THEN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY AROUND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. NUKUORO... SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES WILL ALSO PRODUCE VARIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR NUKUORO DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED SINCE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER DURING THE COMING DAYS FOR KOSRAE WITH ONLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY DECEMBER 15 2016 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AND ALERT AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY POHNPEI STATE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON $$