000 AXGM70 PGUM 090414 DGTGUM PMZ181-240200- MAJURO- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 PM CHST THU FEB 9 2017 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... SYNOPSIS... THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S LA NINA ADVISORY INDICATED A LIKELY TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SOMETIME THIS MONTH. THOSE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST JUNE. SEASONAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. DRY WEATHER IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF 8N EAST OF 170E AND NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 160E AND WEST OF 170E. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN ISLANDS ARE GETTING TYPICAL DRY-SEASON...BUT GENERALLY ADEQUATE RAINFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW SHOWS THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE IN SHORT-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WORSENING OR EXTREME CONDITIONS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS... THE ATMOSPHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY...AND SEVERE DROUGHT IS ALREADY AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND LIKELY OTHER NORTHERN AND THE WESTERN ATOLLS. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK ...RONGELAP... BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MORE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING MALOELAP...LIKIEP AND AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND. CLIMATE SUMMARY... COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS NOW INDICATE THE WEAK LA NINA AFFECTING MICRONESIA WILL TRANSITION TO ENSO- NEUTRAL LATER THIS MONTH. MANY ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE EXPERIENCING DROUGHT AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE COMING WEEKS. WHILE WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED REPORTS FROM UTIRIK...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB FEB (1-7) NORMAL % NORMAL WOTJE 13.83 8.07 1.50 0.08 0.75 0.40 188 UTIRIK 18.47 9.46 1.99 0.63 NO REP 0.50 ? MAJURO 15.28 17.36 11.77 17.65 4.18 2.10 199 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 18.73 14.16 10.36 9.00 5.17 1.06 488 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET OR MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS FREQUENT AND DRIER WEATHER IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N TO 10N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR WOTJE...UTIRIK... RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP AND MALOELAP ATOLLS WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WHILE KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO MAY ALSO SEE SOME EXTENDED DRY PERIODS...BUT THEY HAVE HAD LARGE VOLUMES OF RAIN IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE BEING PREPARED FOR AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO UNITS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED SINCE BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. FOR EXAMPLE...WOTJE RECEIVED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ON 5 FEBRUARY. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 23 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA...EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) GUARD $$