------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 100640 DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM CHST FRI JUL 10 2020 GUZ001>004-PMZ171>173-PMZ181-240400- GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-MAJURO- 500 PM CHST FRI JUL 10 2020 ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE CNMI AND NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... ...SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS ON KAPINGAMARANGI... .SYNOPSIS... A relatively wet trade wind pattern persists across parts of Micronesia, as has been the case the last couple weeks. A series of trade-wind troughs and weak disturbances brought showers to Yap State and Palau, and to Kosrae State and the southern Marshall Islands. Drier conditions have persisted across Chuuk and Pohnpei states, particularly at Kapingamarangi. Very dry conditions continue across the Marianas despite the passage of several tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cells. These westward-moving upper-level disturbances have passed near or just north of Saipan, triggering some showers across Saipan and Tinian, but still below average rainfall has been received. Farther south, Guam has seen a couple days with island-effect convection, generating afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, easterlies were just enough to push this weather offshore to the west, allowing for below-average rainfall over the island. Recent rainfall (inches) across Micronesia: % of normal based on 1981- 2010 rainfall normals (averages) Jan-Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Norm(%) Norm(%) Norm(%) 1-7 RMI WSO Majuro 113 15.78 160 12.83 117 2.97 Wotje 110 5.50 112 4.66 83 0.00 Utirik* 123 -- -- -- -- -- Kwajalein/Ebeye 99 6.15 93 6.09 77 0.59 Ailinglapalap 89 11.65 108 18.09 166 2.31 Jaluit 88 13.80 127 6.81 66 2.39 FSM Kosrae airport 105 29.07 157 23.64 152 3.69 WSO Pohnpei 87 24.91 136 11.70 74 0.33 Kapingamarangi 100 3.93 34 5.87 45 0.69 WSO Chuuk 63 13.09 112 11.45 94 0.26 Lukunor 70 12.52 98 11.34 95 0.88 Onoun** -- 4.73 53 10.31 101 0.50 WSO Yap 30 8.22 97 18.56 141 1.81 Woleai 41 10.54 97 11.25 90 8.28 Ulithi 83 9.90 162 8.67 85 1.86 ROP WSO Palau 70 24.24 171 14.21 83 1.76 Marianas Guam airport 102 8.16 190 3.40 48 0.49 Rota airport 61 2.62 65 2.33 45 0.11 Tinian airport 63 1.36 40 1.83 36 0.77 Saipan airport 59 1.10 40 1.96 44 1.15 *Utirik missing rainfall since May 8th **Onoun % normal rainfall based on Fananu in the Hall Islands .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... *D4 Exceptional short and long-term drought* Mariana Islands: Saipan and Tinian *D3 Extreme short and long-term drought* Republic of the Marshall Islands: Wotje and Utirik Mariana islands: Rota and the northern CNMI. *D2 Severe short-term drought* Pohnpei State: Kapingamarangi *D1 Moderate short- and/or long-term drought* Republic of the Marshall Islands: Kwajalein Mariana Islands: Guam For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi Agricultural impacts still persist across the northern Marshall Islands and the CNMI. The wildfire risk is still high across Tinian and Saipan. Residents of Kapingamarangi report household water tanks are around 25% capacity. Residents of Wotje in the Marshall Islands report water tanks around 50% capacity. .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS... Marshall Islands: Wotje and Utirik have reverse osmosis units on site. Pohnpei State: Dry weather is expected to continue at Kapingamarangi. Residents urged to conserve drinking water. Mariana Islands: Officials across the CNMI report water levels are still above thresholds for concern. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... Marshall Islands: Adequate rainfall fell across the southern Marshall Islands the last couple weeks. However, rainfall totals continue to taper to the north, with drought conditions persisting at Kwajalein, Wotje and Utirik. Spotty showers are seen across the Marshalls this afternoon while the ITCZ sits to the southeast and south. The ITCZ will shift northward this weekend bringing a wetter pattern to south and central islands and atolls. Adequate or above-adequate rainfall is expected for much of the Marshall Islands the next couple weeks with 4 to 5 inches of rainfall the next 10 days for islands south of 10N. However, below-adequate rainfall is expected farther north at Utirik. Pohnpei State: Very dry conditions the last couple weeks show some improvement this weekend at Kapingamarangi. The ITCZ has shifted to the south just enough to bring some showers to the area. Rainfall is still expected to be below adequate the next couple weeks but could see around 2 inches of rainfall over the next 10 days. The ITCZ will keep to the south through the weekend but then begin a northward shift bringing drier weather to the area next week. Efforts to conserve water should continue in the coming weeks. Yap State: Yap, Ulithi and Woleai have all seen adequate or near-adequate rainfall the last couple weeks. Most recently, Woleai has seen a very wet first week of July. Rainfall the next couple weeks is expected to be near-adequate across the state with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall possible the next ten days. While Ulithi remains at D0, Yap State will be excluded from subsequent statements as rainfall should be sufficient to maintain drought-free conditions. We`ll be watching closely for any changes in conditions across the state. Marianas: Rainfall remains below adequate for Guam and the CNMI despite TUTT cells passing near Saipan and island-effect thunderstorms near Guam. Little change is expected in the next couple weeks with much-needed deep tropical moisture keeping well to the south. 10-day rainfall totals for Guam and the CNMI are consistent around 1.5 inches. Favorable upper-level conditions and/or island-effect convection with light winds will be key to locally higher rainfall in the coming weeks. Otherwise, a relatively dry pattern will persist across the Marianas. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday July 24, 2020 or sooner if necessary. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor team at NCEI, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Aydlett/Bukunt ------------------------------------------------------------------------