------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 290403 DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 400 PM CHST FRI OCT 29 2021 PMZ173-120600- POHNPEI- 400 PM CHST FRI OCT 29 2021 ...SEVERE DROUGHT DEVELOPING ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL IN FAR SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE... .SYNOPSIS: La Nina has returned for a second year. On the ocean side of things...surface and subsurface temperatures near and east of the dateline continue to drop. As for the atmosphere...near-surface wind anomalies have been easterly while upper-level wind anomalies have been westerly. All of these conditions indicate that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to La Nina. This strengthening La Nina pattern has produced very dry conditions for Kapingamarangi in Pohnpei state. Inadequate rainfall is expected to continue as La Nina peaks the next month or so. Adequate rainfall (8+ inches/month) may return to Kapingamarangi in December or January. Recent rainfall (inches) for select islands across Pohnpei State. % of normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 rainfall normals. Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct1-28 Oct 1-28 % Norm % Norm % Norm Kapingamarangi 4.26 45 3.98 45 1.57 23 Nukuoro 10.80 91 11.35 105 4.72 48 Pohnpei 7.07 48 10.83 73 12.98 98 .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: *D2 Severe short- and long-term drought* -- Kapingamarangi *D0 Abnormally Dry* -- Nukuoro Kapingamarangi: Private water tanks are around 20% capacity. Crops and vegetation have started to brown. For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS: Kapingamarangi: Residents have been conserving water for several weeks. These water conservation efforts have maintained public water tank levels near full capacity. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Kapingamarangi: CPC Global Hazards map indicates fairly dry conditions will persist around Kapingamarangi at least the next two weeks. Deterministic 10-day model runs from the GFS and ECMWF support this pattern, with both models indicating around an inch of rainfall in that time frame. Long-range model output from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and C3S multi model seasonal forecast point to below normal rainfall for Kapinga to round out the year. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday, Nov 12, 2021 or sooner if necessary. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor team, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Bukunt/Aydlett ------------------------------------------------------------------------