------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 131900 DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 AM CHST FRI JAN 14 2022 PMZ181-280600- MAJURO- 500 AM CHST FRI JAN 14 2022 ...DROUGHT WORSENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... .SYNOPSIS: The synoptic pattern the last few weeks has been characterized by a featureless, moderate northeast trade-wind flow across the Marshall Islands. The inter-tropical convergence zone has been largely non- existent. These conditions have led to dry conditions for atolls of the RMI near 10N with minimal shower activity farther south across the central and southern Marshall Islands. La Nina continues based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions. A series of westerly wind bursts in December 2021 should chew into the La Nina signal the next several months, with ENSO neutral possibly establishing by late spring. Overall expectations are for drought to worsen across the northern Marshall Islands for the next month or so before showers begin to pick up. This largely follows climatology and trends in seasonal climate models. Recent rainfall (inches) for select islands across the Republic of the Marshall Islands. % of normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 rainfall data. Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan 1-12 Jan 1-12 % Norm % Norm % Norm Wotje 9.26 116 2.55 63 0.00 0 Kwajalein 14.47 134 3.74 50 0.52 33 Majuro 17.42 130 8.76 74 0.91 31 .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: *D2 Severe drought* -- Wotje and RMI atolls near and north of 9.5N *D0 Abnormally Dry* -- Kwajalein and nearby atolls For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi Water catchment levels are very low on Wotje. Residents are using personal water catchment tanks for drinking water and community tanks for other water needs. .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS: Wotje residents are conserving water .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Wotje and nearby atolls: Dry weather is expected the next week or so. A round of showers is possible during the Jan 22-25 timeframe but overall rainfall amounts look minimal at this time. Models suggest rainfall may not exceed 0.50" through the end of the January. This will lead to worsening drought conditions. There are conflicting signals as to how long the drought will last for the northern Marshall Islands. Climatology would bring decent rains (>4"/month) back by April. On the other hand, long- range models continue to indicate wetter than normal conditions for the northern Marshall Islands the next several months. Confidence is admittedly low as to when decent rains will return, but mid to late March seems reasonable based on all guidance. Kwajalein and nearby atolls: Models suggest between 0.50" and 1" by the end of January. Decent rains look to return around mid March based on long-range model output and the expectation for waning La Nina conditions the next few months. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday, Jan 28 2022 or sooner if necessary. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor team, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Bukunt/Aydlett ------------------------------------------------------------------------