------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 030647 RRB DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 445 PM CHST FRI JUN 03 2022 PMZ181-100500- MAJURO- 445 PM CHST FRI JUN 03 2022 ...EPISODES OF SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... .SYNOPSIS: Disturbances embedded in the ITCZ will continue to bring episodes of showery weather to islands of the northern RMI. This pattern is expected to continue for the next several months as supported by a wetter-than-normal outlook in the longer-range seasonal models. La Nina continues based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Transition to ENSO neutral has been delayed due to the ongoing easterly wind burst across much of the Pacific Ocean the last few months. The latest model and forecaster consensus suggests La Nina will persist the next several months with a bit more uncertainty late in the year (Nov/Dec time frame) with either La Nina or ENSO neutral. Recent rainfall (inches) for select islands across the Republic of the Marshall Islands. % of monthly normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 data. Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May % Norm % Norm % Norm Wotje 0.05 3 2.55 75 4.76 114 6.85 Kwajalein 6.45 161 11.07 243 8.21 118 13.17 Majuro 8.79 115 19.61 227 24.02 216 6.72 Ailinglaplap 6.70 130 21.82 333 24.49 343 13.66 Mili 8.12 108 22.32 223 28.49 209 17.54 Jaluit 5.83 94 23.64 232 12.26 113 8.42 .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: *D1 Moderate drought* -- Wotje and RMI atolls near and north of 9.5N For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi --------------------------------------------- Northern Marshall Islands near and north of 9N: Vegetation continues to green up and water catchment levels continue to climb. .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS: There are no known drought mitigation actions at this time. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Wotje and nearby atolls: Deterministic models suggests 1 to 4 inches of rain near Wotje the next week or so. Long-range models indicate above normal rainfall for the northern Marshall islands the next several months. Although there will be stretches of dry weather, rains should be frequent enough to fend off water and drought concerns. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This will be the final Drought Information Statement for the northern RMI. Conditions will be monitored closely the next several weeks. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor team, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Bukunt/Aydlett ------------------------------------------------------------------------