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AXGM70 PGUM 070601
DGTGUM

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST FRI OCT 07 2022

PMZ173-110600-
POHNPEI-
400 PM CHST FRI OCT 07 2022

...DROUGHT WORSENS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...

.SYNOPSIS:
La Nina is large and in charge with persistent easterly wind anomalies
anchored along the equatorial Pacific, cooler than normal equatorial
SSTs and large-scale convection anchored across the Maritime Continent
(Indonesia and South East Asia). La Nina is expected to continue
through the end of the year.

The La Nina setup will maintain a sharp rainfall gradient near
Kapingamarangi the next several months with showery weather to the
north closer to Nukuoro, and much drier conditions in the vicinity of
Kapinga. Kapinga is likely to see continued drier than normal weather
with monthly rainfall around 3 to 5 inches while some months see a bit
more rain. Overall, rainfall will be well below normal and severe
drought is expected to persist or worsen.

Preliminary rainfall (inches) for select islands across Pohnpei
State. % of monthly normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 data.

              May      Jun      Jul      Aug      Sep     Oct 1-6

Kapinga       1.19     3.40     8.60     4.17     4.00     0.58
Nukuoro      18.62    12.62    21.65    11.22    12.22     1.58
WSO Pohnpei  22.32    18.02    26.66    19.69    17.41     6.45
Pingelap      7.14     8.66    21.82    15.42    13.47     4.65
Mwoakilloa   11.55    11.87    18.14    15.68    14.95     3.46

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
*D2 Severe drought* -- Kapingamarangi

For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi

Public and private water tanks are around 50% capacity. Crops are
stressed from the recent dry weather.

.DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS:
Eight 1,500 gallon water tanks were also shipped to Kapinga recently.
These water tanks will bolster water resources once they are installed.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK:

Rainfall around 3 to 5 inches per month is expected to continue through
the end of the year. This should prolong or even worsen drought for
Kapinga. Residents of Kapinga are encouraged to conserve water.
Rainfall chances are expected to increase early 2023 as La Nina begins
to ease and large-scale convection shifts back towards the equator.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
The next Drought Information Statement will be issued late this month,
or sooner if necessary.

.RELATED WEBSITES:
-US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands-
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi
-National Weather Service Guam-
https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology
-Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services-
https://www.weather.gov/peac
-Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook-
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/
-Coral reef watch satellite monitoring-
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:
This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National
Weather Service offices, USAPI drought monitor team, Tropical Weather
Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USAID
subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program.

.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT:
National Weather Service
3232 Hueneme Road
Barrigada, GU 96913
http://www.weather.gov/gum
phone: 671-472-0953
e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov

$$

Bukunt/Aydlett

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