------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 271027 CCA DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT... CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 820 PM CHST TUE APR 27 2023 MHZ002-290500- MAJURO- 820 PM CHST TUE APR 27 2023 ...BENEFICIAL RAINS RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... corrected details in synopsis .SYNOPSIS: An El Nino Watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on April 13th. El Nino may develop as early as June or July, with high confidence for El Nino`s onset by August. Widespread rains returned to the northern RMI the last week or so as moist, convergent trade-wind flow fed into slow-moving tropical cyclone Sanvu north of Pohnpei. Wotje received over 7 inches of rain since April 13th and Kwajalein recorded around 6 inches. Satellite-derived rainfall estimates indicate nearby atolls also received good rains. Preliminary rainfall (inches) for select islands across the Marshall Islands. Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1-27 Wotje 9.71 3.38 1.30 0.80 7.83 Roi-Namur 8.19 6.12 0.09 1.76 ---- Kwajalein 5.88 7.08 1.32 4.43 8.17 Majuro 10.30 12.14 9.51 11.12 11.79 Ailinglaplap 4.16 8.20 3.22 11.48 20.42 Mili 11.81 22.43 21.25 11.65 10.19 Jaluit 7.41 8.33 7.58 6.23 6.60 .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: *D1 Moderate drought* -- Northern islands of the RMI near & north of 9N For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi Lingering drought conditions persist as rains continue to return. .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS: Residents across the northern islands are still encouraged to conserve water as there may be dry stretches the next few weeks. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Another 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast through the first week of May. Long-range models advertise decent rains will continue the next few months as the transition to El Nino aligns with the climatological increase in rains across the northern RMI. Drought should continue to erode and conditions should continue to improve. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This will be the last Drought Information Statement at this time. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, USAPI drought monitor team, Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov / william.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Bukunt ------------------------------------------------------------------------