DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...FIRST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1230 PM CHST FRI JAN 26 2018
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING AND
THEN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUMMER INTO
EARLY FALL. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. MOST RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N THROUGH MARCH OR UNTIL UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN
APRIL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING
SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.
SATELLITE SHOWS VERY DRY WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N FROM THE DATE
LINE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN
DRY OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT WITH SHOWERS FROM TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE.
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
HAVE WORSENED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL D0) TO SHORT-TERM
AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND
NEARBY ATOLLS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS RECENTLY BUT CONDITIONS
COULD WORSEN THERE IN THE COMING WEEKS. SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA OF
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY
(DROUGHT LEVEL D0) TO SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT
(DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). MEANWHILE...GUAM IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS (DROUGHT LEVEL D0).
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
MARSHALL ISLANDS...
FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
DRY CONDITIONS AFFECTING UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH OF
KWAJALEIN HAVE BECOME WORSE AND ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS IN MODERATE
DROUGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED ONLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUFFER FROM VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.
MALOELAP...JUST SOUTH OF 9N...COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS.
OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...
MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...JALUIT...
AILINGLAPLAP...AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS...AND THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS SO FAR.
.THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
DRY WEATHER IS AFFECTING SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND ISLANDS FARTHER
NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING BY THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IF SHEAR LINES MOVE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC...BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM PERSISTENT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.
VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT...AND LOCAL
WELLS WILL ALSO BE AT RISK AND COULD BECOME SALTY. THE DANGER FROM
WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE SPRING.
THEN...CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS.
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...
JAN NORMAL % OF NORMAL JAN NORMAL
(1-24) (1-24) (1-24) (1-31)
UTIRIK 1.19 1.57 76 2.03
WOTJE 2.48 1.87 133 2.42
AILINGALAPLAP 6.98 4.88 143 6.30
JALUIT 5.72 7.53 76 9.72
MAJURO 10.65 6.41 166 8.28
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 11.24 3.10 363 4.01
SAIPAN 1.93 2.76 70 3.56
TINIAN 3.04 3.18 96 4.11
ROTA 1.83 4.06 45 5.24
GUAM AP 0.73 3.84 19 4.96
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE CNMI.
EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN
SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
WILL BE VERY LOW WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
ONLY FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH
AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE COULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
.THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
RAINFALL FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH WILL
BE SPOTTY WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND A HALF
INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH...SUCH
AS PAGAN AND AGRIHAN COULD RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A SHEAR LINE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. GUAM WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 8 FEBRUARY 2018 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N FROM 135E
TO 165E...INCLUDING MUCH OF PALAU AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)
SIMPSON/GUARD/LANDER
$$
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