DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...FIRST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1230 PM CHST FRI JAN 26 2018 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... SYNOPSIS... THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING AND THEN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUMMER INTO EARLY FALL. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N THROUGH MARCH OR UNTIL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN APRIL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. SATELLITE SHOWS VERY DRY WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN DRY OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT WITH SHOWERS FROM TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL D0) TO SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS RECENTLY BUT CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN THERE IN THE COMING WEEKS. SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL D0) TO SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). MEANWHILE...GUAM IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (DROUGHT LEVEL D0). SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... DRY CONDITIONS AFFECTING UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN HAVE BECOME WORSE AND ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS IN MODERATE DROUGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED ONLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI... AILUK...WOTJE...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. MALOELAP...JUST SOUTH OF 9N...COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO... MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...JALUIT... AILINGLAPLAP...AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS...AND THESE LOCATIONS HAVE HAD ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS SO FAR. .THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... DRY WEATHER IS AFFECTING SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING BY THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IF SHEAR LINES MOVE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT...AND LOCAL WELLS WILL ALSO BE AT RISK AND COULD BECOME SALTY. THE DANGER FROM WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE SPRING. THEN...CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... JAN NORMAL % OF NORMAL JAN NORMAL (1-24) (1-24) (1-24) (1-31) UTIRIK 1.19 1.57 76 2.03 WOTJE 2.48 1.87 133 2.42 AILINGALAPLAP 6.98 4.88 143 6.30 JALUIT 5.72 7.53 76 9.72 MAJURO 10.65 6.41 166 8.28 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 11.24 3.10 363 4.01 SAIPAN 1.93 2.76 70 3.56 TINIAN 3.04 3.18 96 4.11 ROTA 1.83 4.06 45 5.24 GUAM AP 0.73 3.84 19 4.96 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE CNMI. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) WILL BE VERY LOW WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ONLY FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE COULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. .THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... RAINFALL FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH WILL BE SPOTTY WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH...SUCH AS PAGAN AND AGRIHAN COULD RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A SHEAR LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. GUAM WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 8 FEBRUARY 2018 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N FROM 135E TO 165E...INCLUDING MUCH OF PALAU AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM ...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472- 0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/GUARD/LANDER $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services. * National Weather Service * National Weather Service National Headquarters * 1325 East West Highway * Silver Spring, MD 20910 * * Incorrect Region Format!Web Master's E-mail: NWS Internet Services Team * Page last modified: Jan 10th, 2018 19:57 UTC * Disclaimer * Credits * Glossary * Privacy Policy * About Us * Career Opportunities