Will we have a white Christmas? It's an age-old question that occurs to almost everyone this time of year. This report, created by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), contains maps and tables showing the percent probabilities for a snow depth of at least 1 inch on Christmas morning, as well as the probabilities for a depth of at least 5 inches and 10 inches. The "First Order" Summary of Day Dataset for the period of 1961-1990 was used to compute these statistics. Only stations with at least 25 years of data were used and the '61-'90 period was
chosen to coincide with the standard period for computing climatological normals.
Following is a brief summary of our findings:
Greatest probability for at least 1-inch snow depth (continental U.S.):
100% - Marquette MI
Sault Ste Marie MI
Hibbing MN
International Falls MN
Stampede Pass WA
Greatest probability for at least 5-inch snow depth (continental U.S.):
100% - Stampede Pass WA
Greatest probability for at least 10-inch snow depth (continental U.S.):
96% - Stampede Pass WA
Generally, the greatest probabilities lie where they would be expected--
over the northern U.S. and in mountainous areas. In defining a 'white
Christmas' as having a snow depth of at least 1 inch, the chances are
60% or better over an area including much of the northern Rockies, the
northern Great Plains, the Great Lakes area, and most of New England.
The chances are less than 20% over most of the southern third of the
country excluding the Rockies, along with the Pacific coast.
The 5 and 10-inch maps (Figures 3-6) indicate areas where there is a
greater likelihood of encountering travel problems due to heavy snow.
However, keep in mind that this is based on snow depth and not
necessarily on newly fallen snow. Also, it is important to remember that
higher mountain areas (e.g., elevation of 8000 feet in an area averaging
about 4000 feet) will tend to have higher probabilities for each of the 3
categories.
Table 1 presents city-by-city probabilities for at least 1, 5, and 10-
inch depths on Christmas morning. Figures 1 through 6 display these
probabilities for the continental U.S. in map form with city-by-city
plots and with contours at 20 percent intervals.
If you desire further data related to these tables and figures, please
contact NCDC (phone 828-271-4800, fax 828-271-4876, email
'nndc.weborder@noaa.gov').
Table 1
Probability of snow depth on Christmas Day
greater than or equal to values (in inches)
shown at top of column
1 5 10
ALABAMA
ANNISTON 0% 0% 0%
BIRMINGHAM 0% 0% 0%
HUNTSVILLE 3% 0% 0%
MOBILE 0% 0% 0%
MONTGOMERY 0% 0% 0%
MUSCLE SHOALS 7% 0% 0%
TUSCALOOSA 0% 0% 0%
ALASKA
ADAK 43% 23% 3%
ANCHORAGE 90% 70% 37%
ANNETTE 17% 10% 0%
BARROW 100% 80% 30%
BARTER ISLAND 100% 93% 39%
BETHEL 87% 50% 13%
BETTLES 100% 100% 100%
BIG DELTA 97% 57% 23%
COLD BAY 40% 10% 3%
CORDOVA 63% 43% 20%
FAIRBANKS 100% 100% 77%
GULKANA 97% 83% 53%
HOMER 67% 30% 13%
JUNEAU 62% 31% 14%
KENAI 80% 67% 37%
KING SALMON 60% 20% 3%
KODIAK 20% 0% 0%
KOTZEBUE 100% 97% 77%
MC GRATH 100% 100% 77%
NORTHWAY 100% 93% 66%
SITKA 27% 10% 3%
ST PAUL ISLAND 53% 7% 0%
TALKEETNA 100% 93% 79%
YAKUTAT 83% 60% 40%
ARIZONA
FLAGSTAFF 56% 36% 12%
PHOENIX 0% 0% 0%
PRESCOTT 10% 3% 3%
TUCSON 3% 0% 0%
WINSLOW 20% 3% 0%
YUMA 0% 0% 0%
ARKANSAS
FORT SMITH 10% 0% 0%
LITTLE ROCK 3% 0% 0%
CALIFORNIA
ALAMEDA 0% 0% 0%
BAKERSFIELD 0% 0% 0%
BISHOP 3% 0% 0%
BLUE CANYON 74% 48% 41%
EUREKA 0% 0% 0%
FRESNO 0% 0% 0%
LEMOORE 0% 0% 0%
LONG BEACH 0% 0% 0%
LOS ANGELES 0% 0% 0%
OXNARD 0% 0% 0%
PASO ROBLES 0% 0% 0%
RED BLUFF 0% 0% 0%
SACRAMENTO 0% 0% 0%
SALINAS 0% 0% 0%
SAN DIEGO 0% 0% 0%
SAN FRANCISCO 0% 0% 0%
SANTA BARBARA 0% 0% 0%
SANTA MARIA 0% 0% 0%
STOCKTON 0% 0% 0%
COLORADO
ALAMOSA 60% 10% 0%
DENVER 50% 13% 7%
GRAND JUNCTION 40% 7% 0%
PUEBLO 28% 3% 0%
TRINIDAD 37% 3% 0%
CONNECTICUT
BRIDGEPORT 30% 10% 0%
HARTFORD 57% 23% 3%
DELAWARE
WILMINGTON 13% 3% 3%
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WASHINGTON 13% 7% 0%
FLORIDA
APALACHICOLA 0% 0% 0%
DAYTONA BEACH 0% 0% 0%
FORT MYERS 0% 0% 0%
JACKSONVILLE 0% 0% 0%
KEY WEST 0% 0% 0%
MIAMI 0% 0% 0%
ORLANDO 0% 0% 0%
PENSACOLA 0% 0% 0%
TALLAHASSEE 0% 0% 0%
TAMPA 0% 0% 0%
WEST PALM BEACH 0% 0% 0%
GEORGIA
ATHENS 0% 0% 0%
ATLANTA 0% 0% 0%
AUGUSTA 0% 0% 0%
BRUNSWICK 4% 0% 0%
COLUMBUS 0% 0% 0%
MACON 0% 0% 0%
SAVANNAH 3% 0% 0%
HAWAII
HILO 0% 0% 0%
HONOLULU 0% 0% 0%
KAHULUI 0% 0% 0%
LIHUE 0% 0% 0%
IDAHO
BOISE 30% 10% 0%
BURLEY 38% 3% 3%
IDAHO FALLS 70% 30% 13%
LEWISTON 10% 0% 0%
POCATELLO 40% 17% 0%
ILLINOIS
CHICAGO 40% 7% 0%
MOLINE 47% 10% 0%
PEORIA 40% 10% 0%
QUINCY 32% 7% 0%
ROCKFORD 57% 13% 3%
SPRINGFIELD 33% 7% 0%
INDIANA
EVANSVILLE 13% 3% 0%
FORT WAYNE 47% 7% 0%
INDIANAPOLIS 30% 3% 0%
SOUTH BEND 67% 37% 7%
WEST LAFAYETTE 24% 8% 4%
IOWA
CEDAR RAPIDS 39% 7% 0%
DES MOINES 50% 17% 7%
DUBUQUE 62% 21% 7%
MASON CITY 57% 30% 17%
SIOUX CITY 63% 13% 7%
WATERLOO 70% 13% 3%
KANSAS
CONCORDIA 24% 3% 3%
DODGE CITY 27% 0% 0%
GARDEN CITY 25% 0% 0%
GOODLAND 30% 3% 3%
RUSSELL 20% 0% 0%
SALINA 11% 4% 4%
TOPEKA 23% 3% 0%
WICHITA 23% 0% 0%
KENTUCKY
BOWLING GREEN 14% 3% 0%
COVINGTON 17% 0% 0%
LEXINGTON 10% 3% 0%
LONDON 16% 12% 0%
LOUISVILLE 13% 0% 0%
PADUCAH 17% 3% 0%
LOUISIANA
BATON ROUGE 0% 0% 0%
LAFAYETTE 0% 0% 0%
LAKE CHARLES 0% 0% 0%
MONROE 4% 0% 0%
NEW ORLEANS 0% 0% 0%
SHREVEPORT 0% 0% 0%
MAINE
AUGUSTA 90% 52% 21%
BRUNSWICK 80% 40% 17%
CARIBOU 97% 77% 57%
HOULTON 96% 74% 52%
PORTLAND 83% 43% 13%
MARYLAND
LEXINGTON PARK 13% 10% 3%
SALISBURY 14% 3% 0%
MASSACHUSETTS
BOSTON 23% 17% 3%
MILTON 55% 21% 7%
SOUTH WEYMOUTH 33% 13% 10%
WORCESTER 60% 27% 10%
MICHIGAN
ALPENA 83% 47% 13%
DETROIT 50% 13% 0%
FLINT 63% 10% 0%
GRAND RAPIDS 73% 37% 3%
HOUGHTON LAKE 82% 56% 0%
LANSING 73% 17% 0%
MARQUETTE 100% 86% 71%
MUSKEGON 70% 37% 13%
PELLSTON 89% 69% 35%
SAGINAW 61% 18% 0%
SAULT STE MARIE 100% 80% 53%
TRAVERSE CITY 87% 50% 17%
MINNESOTA
ALEXANDRIA 89% 41% 11%
DULUTH 97% 63% 43%
HIBBING 100% 66% 41%
INTERNATIONAL FALLS 100% 73% 53%
MINNEAPOLIS 73% 30% 13%
REDWOOD FALLS 62% 27% 8%
ST CLOUD 73% 37% 10%
MISSISSIPPI
GREENWOOD 3% 0% 0%
JACKSON 0% 0% 0%
MCCOMB 0% 0% 0%
MERIDIAN 0% 0% 0%
MISSOURI
CAPE GIRARDEAU 18% 0% 0%
JOPLIN 18% 4% 0%
SPRINGFIELD 23% 7% 0%
ST LOUIS 23% 3% 0%
MONTANA
BILLINGS 63% 17% 0%
BOZEMAN 73% 17% 3%
BUTTE 87% 17% 0%
GLASGOW 77% 30% 0%
GREAT FALLS 57% 17% 3%
HAVRE 61% 21% 4%
HELENA 67% 17% 0%
KALISPELL 80% 43% 3%
LEWISTOWN 76% 32% 12%
MILES CITY 57% 32% 4%
MISSOULA 73% 20% 0%
NEBRASKA
GRAND ISLAND 40% 10% 10%
NORFOLK 57% 17% 7%
NORTH PLATTE 33% 10% 0%
OMAHA 44% 8% 4%
SCOTTSBLUFF 47% 3% 0%
VALENTINE 61% 14% 4%
NEVADA
ELKO 47% 13% 0%
ELY 50% 13% 0%
LAS VEGAS 0% 0% 0%
RENO 20% 3% 0%
WINNEMUCCA 37% 3% 0%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
CONCORD 87% 57% 7%
LEBANON 85% 70% 30%
MOUNT WASHINGTON 93% 63% 27%
NEW JERSEY
ATLANTIC CITY 7% 3% 0%
MILLVILLE 14% 3% 0%
NEWARK 23% 10% 0%
NEW MEXICO
ALBUQUERQUE 3% 0% 0%
CLAYTON 17% 0% 0%
NEW YORK
ALBANY 63% 30% 13%
BINGHAMTON 67% 43% 17%
BUFFALO 57% 23% 13%
GLENS FALLS 76% 59% 21%
MASSENA 77% 47% 23%
NEW YORK 10% 7% 0%
POUGHKEEPSIE 45% 28% 7%
ROCHESTER 60% 23% 3%
SYRACUSE 70% 47% 20%
UTICA 71% 46% 18%
WATERTOWN 69% 41% 21%
NORTH CAROLINA
ASHEVILLE 7% 0% 0%
CAPE HATTERAS 3% 3% 0%
CHARLOTTE 0% 0% 0%
CHERRY POINT 3% 3% 3%
GREENSBORO 10% 0% 0%
HICKORY 3% 0% 0%
JACKSONVILLE 4% 4% 4%
NEW BERN 3% 3% 0%
RALEIGH 3% 0% 0%
WILMINGTON 3% 3% 3%
NORTH DAKOTA
BISMARCK 87% 30% 0%
FARGO 83% 37% 3%
GRAND FORKS 89% 46% 7%
MINOT 79% 32% 14%
WILLISTON 79% 31% 3%
OHIO
AKRON 40% 7% 0%
CINCINNATI 11% 4% 0%
CLEVELAND 50% 17% 0%
COLUMBUS 23% 0% 0%
DAYTON 27% 3% 0%
FINDLAY 41% 0% 0%
MANSFIELD 47% 3% 0%
TOLEDO 57% 3% 0%
YOUNGSTOWN 50% 10% 0%
ZANESVILLE 21% 3% 0%
OKLAHOMA
MCALESTER 4% 0% 0%
OKLAHOMA CITY 3% 0% 0%
TULSA 7% 0% 0%
OREGON
ASTORIA 3% 0% 0%
EUGENE 7% 0% 0%
MEDFORD 3% 0% 0%
NORTH BEND 0% 0% 0%
PENDLETON 13% 7% 0%
PORTLAND 0% 0% 0%
REDMOND 20% 7% 0%
SALEM 3% 0% 0%
SEXTON SUMMIT 44% 33% 7%
PENNSYLVANIA
ALLENTOWN 30% 10% 3%
ALTOONA 31% 3% 0%
BRADFORD 70% 37% 23%
DUBOIS 52% 28% 14%
ERIE 57% 23% 10%
HARRISBURG 33% 10% 3%
PHILADELPHIA 10% 7% 3%
PITTSBURGH 33% 7% 0%
WILKES-BARRE 43% 17% 3%
WILLIAMSPORT 43% 10% 0%
RHODE ISLAND
PROVIDENCE 37% 10% 0%
SOUTH CAROLINA
BEAUFORT 3% 0% 0%
CHARLESTON 3% 0% 0%
COLUMBIA 0% 0% 0%
FLORENCE 3% 0% 0%
GREENVILLE 3% 0% 0%
SOUTH DAKOTA
ABERDEEN 59% 19% 0%
HURON 60% 27% 7%
PIERRE 47% 10% 0%
RAPID CITY 47% 7% 0%
SIOUX FALLS 67% 27% 7%
TENNESSEE
BRISTOL 17% 3% 0%
CHATTANOOGA 3% 0% 0%
CROSSVILLE 14% 7% 3%
JACKSON 7% 3% 0%
KNOXVILLE 10% 3% 0%
MEMPHIS 7% 3% 3%
NASHVILLE 13% 3% 0%
OAK RIDGE 7% 3% 0%
TEXAS
ABILENE 3% 0% 0%
AMARILLO 7% 0% 0%
AUSTIN 0% 0% 0%
BEEVILLE 0% 0% 0%
BROWNSVILLE 0% 0% 0%
COLLEGE STATION 0% 0% 0%
CORPUS CHRISTI 0% 0% 0%
DALLAS 0% 0% 0%
DEL RIO 0% 0% 0%
EL PASO 0% 0% 0%
GALVESTON 0% 0% 0%
HOUSTON 0% 0% 0%
KINGSVILLE 0% 0% 0%
LUBBOCK 3% 0% 0%
LUFKIN 0% 0% 0%
MCALLEN 0% 0% 0%
MIDLAND 0% 0% 0%
PORT ARTHUR 0% 0% 0%
SAN ANGELO 0% 0% 0%
SAN ANTONIO 0% 0% 0%
VICTORIA 0% 0% 0%
WACO 0% 0% 0%
WICHITA FALLS 3% 0% 0%
UTAH
CEDAR CITY 33% 7% 0%
MILFORD 46% 11% 0%
SALT LAKE CITY 53% 13% 3%
VERMONT
BURLINGTON 77% 50% 13%
MONTPELIER 93% 72% 41%
VIRGINIA
LYNCHBURG 13% 3% 0%
NORFOLK 3% 0% 0%
RICHMOND 7% 0% 0%
ROANOKE 17% 7% 0%
STERLING 17% 10% 0%
VIRGINIA BEACH 0% 0% 0%
WALLOPS ISLAND 16% 0% 0%
WASHINGTON
BELLINGHAM 10% 7% 0%
OLYMPIA 3% 0% 0%
QUILLAYUTE 0% 0% 0%
SEATTLE 7% 0% 0%
SPOKANE 70% 30% 3%
STAMPEDE PASS 100% 100% 96%
WALLA WALLA 17% 3% 0%
WENATCHEE 67% 43% 17%
WHIDBEY ISLAND 7% 0% 0%
WEST VIRGINIA
BECKLEY 36% 7% 4%
BLUEFIELD 24% 10% 0%
CHARLESTON 30% 3% 0%
ELKINS 35% 10% 0%
HUNTINGTON 23% 0% 0%
MARTINSBURG 24% 3% 3%
MORGANTOWN 31% 0% 0%
PARKERSBURG 24% 3% 0%
WISCONSIN
EAU CLAIRE 87% 33% 17%
GREEN BAY 77% 40% 3%
LA CROSSE 66% 28% 10%
MADISON 67% 20% 7%
MILWAUKEE 60% 10% 3%
WAUSAU 93% 54% 25%
WYOMING
CASPER 47% 10% 3%
LANDER 77% 37% 17%
LARAMIE 48% 4% 0%
ROCK SPRINGS 55% 10% 3%
SHERIDAN 83% 17% 7%
WORLAND 59% 24% 3%
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
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