{"xmlId":"85095","NOAAStudyId":"44542","studyName":"Global Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rate Reconstruction over the Past Nine Centuries","doi":"https://doi.org/10.25921/hbr3-re18","uuid":"12b7643d-7999-42d9-bf53-4a8d5c491d98","dataPublisher":"NOAA","contactInfo":{"type":"CONTACT INFORMATION","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","state":"CO","postalCode":"80305-3328","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","phone":"828-271-4800","fax":null,"constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site."},"dataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","investigators":"Zhang, X.; Li, J.; Liu, L.","investigatorDetails":[{"firstName":"Xu","lastName":"Zhang","initials":"X.","orcId":"0000-0002-0957-3636"},{"firstName":"Jinbao","lastName":"Li","initials":"J.","orcId":null},{"firstName":null,"lastName":"Liu","initials":"L.","orcId":null}],"version":"1.0","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","fundingGrant":"2018YFA0605601"},{"fundingAgency":"Research Grants Council of Hong Kong","fundingGrant":"17317722"},{"fundingAgency":"University of Hong Kong","fundingGrant":"Seed Fund 2302101685"}],"studyNotes":"This study presents a CGR reconstruction using the principal components regression method from the PAGES2k Global 2,000 Year Multiproxy Database (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/21171 ) over the past nine centuries.","onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/44542","difMetadataLink":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-forcing-44542.xml","isoMetadataLink":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/iso/xml/noaa-forcing-44542.xml","originalSource":null,"dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/climate-forcing","studyCode":null,"scienceKeywords":["carbon cycle"],"reconstruction":"Y","contributionDate":"2026-03-27","entryId":"noaa-forcing-44542","earliestYearBP":850,"mostRecentYearBP":-56,"earliestYearCE":1100,"mostRecentYearCE":2006,"publication":[{"author":{"name":"Zhang, X., Li, J. and Liu, L."},"pubYear":2026,"title":"Annually resolved atmospheric CO2 growth rate over the past nine centuries","journal":"Nature Communications","volume":null,"edition":null,"issue":null,"pages":null,"reportNumber":null,"citation":"Zhang, X., Li, J. and Liu, L. 2026. Annually resolved atmospheric CO2 growth rate over the past nine centuries. Nature Communications. . doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-72220-2","type":"publication","identifier":{"type":"doi","id":"10.1038/s41467-026-72220-2","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72220-2"},"abstract":"Interannual atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR), mostly resulting from fluctuating carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere, is a key determinant of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, CGR observations are merely available in recent decades, which are unable to fully reveal its natural variability and interactions with terrestrial ecosystems and climatic drivers. Here we present a reconstruction of interannual CGR over the past nine centuries (1100-2006) based on a globally distributed temperature-sensitive proxy network. The reconstruction is validated by the comparison with dynamic global vegetation model simulations and the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation. Our data reveal a close association of CGR variability with atmospheric CO2 concentration and tropical climate. Present CGR variability is unprecedentedly high over the past nine centuries, suggestive of the instability of present carbon cycle and the reducing resilience of atmospheric carbon balance under intensifying anthropogenic forcing. Our record provides a pre-industrial constraint for perceiving the climate-carbon coupling under historical climate forcings.","pubRank":"1"}],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"22723","siteName":"Global","siteCode":null,"mappable":"N","locationName":"Geographic Region>Global","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"type":"POLYGON","coordinates":["-90","90","-180","180"]},"properties":{"southernmostLatitude":"-90","northernmostLatitude":"90","westernmostLongitude":"-180","easternmostLongitude":"180","minElevationMeters":null,"maxElevationMeters":null}},"paleoData":[{"dataTableName":"Global carbon growth rate Zhang2026","NOAADataTableId":"59328","earliestYear":1100,"mostRecentYear":2006,"timeUnit":"CE","earliestYearBP":850,"mostRecentYearBP":-56,"earliestYearCE":1100,"mostRecentYearCE":2006,"coreLengthMeters":null,"dataTableNotes":null,"species":[],"dataFile":[{"fileUrl":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/zhang2026/zhang2026-global-cgr.txt","urlDescription":"NOAA Template File","linkText":"Global Carbon Growth Rate Reconstruction Data","variables":[{"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvWhat":"age variable>age","cvMaterial":null,"cvError":null,"cvUnit":"time unit>age unit>year Common Era","cvSeasonality":null,"cvDetail":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvShortName":"year"},{"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvWhat":"chemical composition>compound>inorganic compound>carbon dioxide","cvMaterial":null,"cvError":null,"cvUnit":"rate unit>concentration per time unit>parts per million per year","cvSeasonality":"annual","cvDetail":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvAdditionalInfo":"ensemble median of carbon growth rate reconstruction","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvShortName":"CGR"},{"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvWhat":"chemical composition>compound>inorganic compound>carbon dioxide","cvMaterial":null,"cvError":"confidence interval>95% confidence interval lower bound","cvUnit":"rate unit>concentration per time unit>parts per million per year","cvSeasonality":"annual","cvDetail":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvAdditionalInfo":"lower bound of carbon growth rate reconstruction","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvShortName":"CGR_L"},{"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvWhat":"chemical composition>compound>inorganic compound>carbon dioxide","cvMaterial":null,"cvError":"confidence interval>95% confidence interval upper bound","cvUnit":"rate unit>concentration per time unit>parts per million per year","cvSeasonality":"annual","cvDetail":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvAdditionalInfo":"lower bound of carbon growth rate reconstruction","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvShortName":"CGR_U"}],"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>climate forcing>carbon dioxide"]}]}]}],"reference":{"pastThesaurusSkos":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/skos/past-thesaurus.rdf","pastThesaurusExplorer":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/cvterms","gcmdKeywordThesaurus":"https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data/find-data/idn/gcmd-keywords"},"dataLicenseDescription":null,"dataLicenseUrl":null}