600 Year Ensemble Climate Reconstructions and Code Package
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
               World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder
                                  and
                     NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!!


NAME OF DATA SET: 600 Year Ensemble Climate Reconstructions and Code Package
LAST UPDATE: 4/2013 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo)
CONTRIBUTORS: Martin P. Tingley and Peter Huybers


SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Tingley, M.P. and P. Huybers. 2013. 
600 Year Ensemble Climate Reconstructions and Code Package.
NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.


ORIGINAL REFERENCE: 
Tingley, M.P. and P. Huybers. 2013. 
Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented 
in the past 600 years.
Nature, Vol. 496, pp. 201-205, 11 April 2013. 
doi:10.1038/nature11969   

ABSTRACT:
Recently observed extreme temperatures at high northern latitudes 
are rare by definition, making the longer time span afforded by climate 
proxies important for assessing how the frequency of such extremes 
may be changing. Previous reconstructions of past temperature variability 
have demonstrated that recent warmth is anomalous relative to preceding 
centuries or millennia, but extreme events can be more thoroughly evaluated 
using a spatially resolved approach that provides an ensemble of possible 
temperature histories. Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis 
of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, 
we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature 
extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600?years. 
The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior 
years back to 1400 (probability P > 0.95), in terms of the spatial average. 
The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western 
Russia (P > 0.99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the 
Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0.90). These and other recent extremes greatly 
exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as 
resulting from constant space-time variability about an increased mean 
temperature.


GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Global
PERIOD OF RECORD: 1400 - 2000 AD

FUNDING SOURCES: 


DESCRIPTION:
Ensemble Climate Reconstructions, input data files, and Matlab Code Package 
for Tingley and Huybers 2013, Nature 496:201.  Code and data are included 
in compressed Zip file tingley2013.zip, or uncompressed in sub-folders 
located in: 
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/