# Southwestern United States Reconstructed and Instrumental Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) Data from 1571-2020 CE #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Service for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # Template Version 4.0 # Encoding: UTF-8 # NOTE: Please cite original publication, NOAA Landing Page URL, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. # If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, study title, NOAA Landing Page URL, and date accessed. # # Description/Documentation lines begin with '#' followed by a space # Data lines have no '#' # # NOAA_Landing_Page: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/36693 # Landing_Page_Description: NOAA Landing Page of this file's parent study, which includes all study metadata. # # Study_Level_JSON_Metadata: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/json/noaa-recon-36693.json # Study_Level_JSON_Description: JSON metadata of this data file's parent study, which includes all study metadata. # # Data_Type: Climate Reconstructions # # Dataset_DOI: 10.25921/zv90-dw19 # # Science_Keywords: Drought #--------------------------------------- # Resource_Links # # Data_Download_Resource: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/wahl2022/wahl2022-spei.txt # Data_Download_Description: NOAA Template File; Southwest United States SPEI Data # #--------------------------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2022-09-09 #--------------------------------------- # File_Last_Modified_Date # Date: 2023-03-24 #--------------------------------------- # Title # Study_Name: Southwestern United States Reconstructed and Instrumental Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) Data from 1571-2020 CE #--------------------------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Wahl, Eugene R.; Zorita, Eduardo; Diaz, Henry F.; Hoell, Andrew #--------------------------------------- # Description_Notes_and_Keywords # Description: For the annual reconstructed values, the Standard Error of Prediction (SEP) employed at the 95% level (2-sided t-test) gives a confidence interval (CI) of +- 0.247. At the 21-year scale the corresponding CI is +- 0.054. #--------------------------------------- # Publication # Authors: Wahl, Eugene R.; Zorita, Eduardo; Diaz, Henry F.; Hoell, Andrew # Published_Date_or_Year: 2022-09-19 # Published_Title: Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future # Journal_Name: Nature Communications # Volume: 3 # Edition: # Issue: # Pages: # Report_Number: 202 # DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00532-4 # Online_Resource: # Full_Citation: # Abstract: Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current period of warming. Consistent with and extending previous reconstructions, we find that the ongoing drought is the most intense at the 21-year scale back to 600 CE. Evaluation using standardized regression coefficients shows that recent warming damps the effect of moisture delivery on the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index by approximately one-third. The probability of full recovery of the current moisture deficit is unlikely even by mid-century and about five percent in 10-15 years. Evaluation of future climate simulations indicates increasing regional temperature stress and soil moisture depletion, and coupled with long recovery periods for moisture delivery, very low chance for regional mega-reservoirs to regain full-capacity levels assuming current demand. #--------------------------------------- # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: # Grant: #--------------------------------------- # Site_Information # Site_Name: Southwestern United States # Location: United States of America # Northernmost_Latitude: 42 # Southernmost_Latitude: 31.25 # Easternmost_Longitude: -102 # Westernmost_Longitude: -124.5 # Elevation_m: #--------------------------------------- # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: SWUSA SPEI Wahl2022 # First_Year: 1571 # Last_Year: 2020 # Time_Unit: year Common Era # Core_Length_m: # Parameter_Keywords: precipitation, air temperature # Notes: #--------------------------------------- # Chronology_Information # Chronology: #--------------------------------------- # Variables # PaST_Thesaurus_Download_Resource: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/skos/past-thesaurus.rdf # PaST_Thesaurus_Download_Description: Paleoenvironmental Standard Terms (PaST) Thesaurus terms, definitions, and relationships in SKOS format. # # Data variables follow that are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Variables list, one per line, shortname-tab-var components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, data type, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data) # ## year_CE age,,,year Common Era,,climate reconstructions; instrumental,,,N, ## SPEI standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,,,dimensionless,,climate reconstructions; instrumental,,,N, #------------------------ # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing_Values: NA year_CE SPEI 1571 -0.316 1572 -0.068 1573 -0.002 1574 0.002 1575 -0.093 1576 -0.222 1577 0.396 1578 0.031 1579 -0.369 1580 -0.435 1581 0.007 1582 0.013 1583 0.109 1584 -0.296 1585 -0.376 1586 0.198 1587 0.255 1588 -0.001 1589 0.344 1590 -0.418 1591 0.045 1592 -0.233 1593 -0.125 1594 0.107 1595 -0.134 1596 0.241 1597 -0.139 1598 -0.148 1599 0.279 1600 -0.241 1601 0.197 1602 0.247 1603 0.074 1604 0.27 1605 0.229 1606 0.135 1607 -0.269 1608 0.129 1609 0.296 1610 0.256 1611 0.194 1612 -0.021 1613 -0.143 1614 0.048 1615 0.233 1616 0.221 1617 0.33 1618 0.145 1619 -0.015 1620 0.222 1621 0.072 1622 -0.205 1623 0.136 1624 0.041 1625 0.155 1626 -0.137 1627 0.195 1628 0.22 1629 -0.099 1630 0.039 1631 -0.154 1632 -0.343 1633 0.011 1634 -0.089 1635 0.257 1636 0 1637 -0.153 1638 -0.088 1639 -0.044 1640 0.506 1641 0.352 1642 0.196 1643 -0.047 1644 0.142 1645 -0.102 1646 -0.103 1647 0.103 1648 -0.03 1649 0.316 1650 0.072 1651 0.379 1652 -0.054 1653 -0.254 1654 -0.438 1655 -0.04 1656 0.426 1657 -0.071 1658 -0.127 1659 -0.116 1660 0.214 1661 0.214 1662 0.052 1663 -0.144 1664 0.121 1665 -0.033 1666 -0.085 1667 -0.279 1668 0.089 1669 -0.131 1670 -0.259 1671 0.229 1672 0.251 1673 -0.034 1674 0.125 1675 0.044 1676 0.009 1677 0.38 1678 0.146 1679 -0.094 1680 0.456 1681 -0.133 1682 0.121 1683 0.32 1684 -0.051 1685 -0.113 1686 -0.312 1687 0.186 1688 0.019 1689 0.054 1690 -0.071 1691 -0.147 1692 0.232 1693 0.182 1694 0.13 1695 0.119 1696 0.209 1697 0.244 1698 -0.032 1699 0.269 1700 0.148 1701 0.19 1702 0.457 1703 -0.131 1704 0.109 1705 0.084 1706 -0.224 1707 -0.201 1708 -0.222 1709 0.123 1710 -0.058 1711 0.093 1712 0.086 1713 -0.068 1714 -0.104 1715 -0.031 1716 -0.105 1717 0.041 1718 0.029 1719 0.098 1720 0.404 1721 -0.235 1722 -0.322 1723 0.196 1724 -0.008 1725 0.333 1726 0.262 1727 0.12 1728 -0.21 1729 -0.423 1730 0.274 1731 0.16 1732 0.158 1733 -0.114 1734 0.296 1735 -0.327 1736 -0.29 1737 -0.293 1738 0.256 1739 -0.031 1740 0.271 1741 0.126 1742 0.079 1743 0.308 1744 0.067 1745 0.392 1746 0.41 1747 0.375 1748 -0.325 1749 0.254 1750 0.08 1751 -0.077 1752 -0.048 1753 0.038 1754 0.01 1755 -0.072 1756 -0.139 1757 -0.204 1758 0.134 1759 -0.016 1760 0.066 1761 0.086 1762 0.155 1763 -0.08 1764 0.093 1765 -0.341 1766 0.311 1767 -0.017 1768 0.138 1769 0.165 1770 -0.256 1771 0.295 1772 -0.003 1773 -0.123 1774 0.137 1775 0.053 1776 -0.221 1777 -0.338 1778 -0.097 1779 0.164 1780 -0.123 1781 -0.002 1782 -0.244 1783 -0.148 1784 0.445 1785 0.16 1786 0.003 1787 0.375 1788 -0.249 1789 0.31 1790 0.358 1791 0.121 1792 0.413 1793 0.146 1794 -0.223 1795 -0.248 1796 -0.204 1797 0.261 1798 -0.041 1799 0.138 1800 -0.214 1801 0.219 1802 0.135 1803 -0.197 1804 0.18 1805 -0.109 1806 0.009 1807 -0.071 1808 -0.062 1809 -0.238 1810 0.121 1811 0.349 1812 -0.03 1813 -0.072 1814 0.011 1815 0.02 1816 0.396 1817 0.225 1818 -0.046 1819 0.069 1820 -0.083 1821 0.294 1822 -0.217 1823 -0.135 1824 -0.199 1825 0.486 1826 0.273 1827 -0.05 1828 0.48 1829 -0.238 1830 0.167 1831 0.164 1832 0.507 1833 0.317 1834 -0.102 1835 0.113 1836 0.014 1837 0.272 1838 0.623 1839 0.435 1840 0.219 1841 -0.099 1842 0.134 1843 -0.088 1844 -0.024 1845 -0.317 1846 -0.12 1847 0.07 1848 0.139 1849 0.352 1850 0.345 1851 -0.396 1852 0.284 1853 0.298 1854 0.04 1855 -0.066 1856 -0.131 1857 -0.146 1858 -0.031 1859 -0.07 1860 0.121 1861 -0.079 1862 0.489 1863 -0.12 1864 -0.355 1865 0.101 1866 0.452 1867 0.551 1868 0.772 1869 0.173 1870 -0.204 1871 -0.35 1872 0.02 1873 0.029 1874 0.029 1875 -0.036 1876 0.185 1877 -0.195 1878 0.326 1879 -0.333 1880 0.043 1881 0.074 1882 -0.176 1883 -0.173 1884 0.53 1885 0.018 1886 0.1 1887 -0.162 1888 0.034 1889 0.113 1890 0.293 1891 0.213 1892 -0.079 1893 0.073 1894 -0.146 1895 0.211 1896 -0.004 1897 0.259 1898 -0.048 1899 -0.166 1900 -0.128 1901 -0.028 1902 -0.345 1903 0.13 1904 -0.335 1905 0.094 1906 0.331 1907 0.29 1908 0.083 1909 0.248 1910 -0.32 1911 0.073 1912 0.29 1913 0.086 1914 0.298 1915 0.368 1916 -0.06 1917 0.143 1918 -0.217 1919 0.158 1920 0.277 1921 0.19 1922 -0.065 1923 0.284 1924 -0.319 1925 0.088 1926 -0.02 1927 0.174 1928 -0.339 1929 0.163 1930 -0.135 1931 -0.219 1932 0.185 1933 -0.16 1934 -0.737 1935 0.054 1936 -0.114 1937 0.07 1938 0.158 1939 -0.145 1940 -0.22 1941 0.821 1942 0.091 1943 -0.228 1944 0.033 1945 0.08 1946 -0.26 1947 -0.105 1948 -0.012 1949 0.103 1950 -0.355 1951 -0.276 1952 0.316 1953 -0.28 1954 -0.288 1955 -0.141 1956 -0.437 1957 0.049 1958 0.304 1959 -0.416 1960 -0.377 1961 -0.048 1962 -0.065 1963 -0.056 1964 -0.062 1965 0.447 1966 -0.236 1967 0.145 1968 0.004 1969 0.223 1970 -0.025 1971 -0.054 1972 -0.268 1973 0.502 1974 -0.32 1975 0.33 1976 -0.074 1977 -0.298 1978 0.074 1979 0.175 1980 0.219 1981 -0.399 1982 0.443 1983 0.727 1984 0.243 1985 0.174 1986 0.178 1987 0.064 1988 0.074 1989 -0.363 1990 -0.162 1991 0.024 1992 0.028 1993 0.284 1994 -0.418 1995 0.36 1996 -0.544 1997 0.395 1998 0.662 1999 0.462 2000 -0.44 2001 0.093 2002 -0.339 2003 0.041 2004 0.08 2005 0.61 2006 -0.134 2007 -0.047 2008 -0.015 2009 -0.111 2010 0.313 2011 0.107 2012 -0.414 2013 -0.159 2014 -0.141 2015 -0.136 2016 -0.029 2017 -0.011 2018 -0.758 2019 0.417 2020 -0.758