ST.FRANCIS SUNKLANDS, ARKANSAS - AR054 Additional Site Information Malcolm K. Cleaveland PI comments on site: This site, like the Reelfoot Lake site, is special because it shows the effects of the New Madrid earthquakes late 1811 to early 1812. The Reelfoot Lake site mainly shows the effect of the creation of the lake, a tremendous growth spurt several years after the quakes. The St. Francis chronology shows considerable growth suppression for at least 50 years after the seismic activity. I turned to negative exponential and regression lines to detrend this chronology because the cubic spline considerably reduced the growth depression after 1811. There was other evidence of the quake effects. For example, only 6 trees of more than 100 (ca.5%) could be dated through this period. The rest were so suppressed (so many missing rings) that they were undatable for at least 50 years, but datable before 1812 and from the late 1800s to the present. Because the 6 trees that could be dated through this period were relatively fast growing, presumably indicative that they suffered less damage than the others, the estimates of average growth rate during this period GREATLY OVERESTIMATE the true growth rate. While there is evidence from other sites that this period was quite dry in the Mississippi Valley, none show the degree of growth suppression. As evidence, for 46 years (1812-1857) the standard chron- ology did not have an index above average. There is other evidence. For example, tree 93 leans and the change in growth rates associated with reaction wood over and under the lean indicate that it either started leaning or the lean was greatly increased between the 1811 and 1812 growing seasons. Obviously, this chronology is of limited use for climatic studies after 1811. However, there is no comparable period of suppression back to 1321, good news for people who live in the area. Note that because the number of trees sampled exceeded 100, the first 99 have the ID SFS, 99+ have the ID SFB to keep from repeating the early numbers. All trees were collected at the same site. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : NONE Measurement file name : AR054.RWL Date checked : 01JUL96 Technician's name : MARIETTE SEKLECKI Supervisor's name : HENRI D. GRISSINO-MAYER Beginning year : 1321 Ending year : 1990 Principal investigators: D.W. STAHLE, M.K. CLEAVELAND Site name : ST. FRANCIS SUNKLANDS, QUAKE EFFECTS AFTER 1811 Site location : ARKANSAS, USA Species information : TADI BALDCYPRESS Latitude : 3538N Longitude : 9027W Elevation : 65 M Series intercorrelation: 0.646 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.556 Avg standard deviation : 0.826 Avg autocorrelation : 0.486 Number dated series : 81 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 15 Pct problem segments : 2.92 Are there obvious misdated series? NO Number possible misdated series : N/A Percent misdated series : 0.00 Do they affect chronology quality? N/A Recommend withhold from ITRDB? N/A Comments: #10 SFS22B 1775-1849 SHOULD BE DIVIDED INTO TWO SERIES #14 SFS23D 1683-1732 IS POSSIBLY MISDATED #57 SFS99B 1809-1874 HAS LOW CORRELATION EXCELLENT HIGH QUALITY CHRONOLOGY PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 23:36 Mon 01 JUL 1996 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under 0.3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SFS03A 1473 1718 .70 .71 .69 .73 .75 .67 .67 .55 .43 .37 2 SFS07A 1767 1990 .75 .72 .59 3 SFS07C 1770 1990 .70 .68 .67 4 SFS07D 1751 1990 .65 .60 .58 5 SFS08A 1723 1990 .65 .65 .62 .69 .51 6 SFS08B 1723 1990 .75 .76 .64 .69 .65 7 SFS08C 1723 1990 .74 .75 .79 .79 .50 8 SFS13A 1453 1651 .43 .44 .54 .62 .59 .52 .43 .43 9 SFS22A 1589 1781 .44 .54 .70 .77 .71 .69 .69 .75 10 SFS22B 1624 1990 .64 .64 .73 .79 .85 .66 .33 .18B .28B 13 SFS23C 1716 1974 .64 .71 .56 .52 .42 14 SFS23D 1683 1808 .22B .53 .68 .45 .47 16 SFS28A 1497 1633 .69 .71 .62 .47 .46 .47 17 SFS28B 1483 1654 .57 .68 .69 .58 .58 .57 .56 18 SFS31A 1480 1575 .71 .68 .63 .67 19 SFS33A 1453 1561 .60 .69 .69 .66 20 SFS33B 1444 1657 .63 .66 .66 .69 .79 .77 .66 .48 .48 21 SFS36A 1408 1813 .64 .69 .63 .71 .84 .73 .61 .63 .64 .58 .58 .58 .64 .61 .17B .21B 22 SFS36B 1467 1761 .61 .68 .81 .66 .62 .71 .74 .77 .65 .60 .62 .55 23 SFS40A 1475 1641 .75 .77 .77 .74 .54 .49 24 SFS40B 1499 1669 .73 .72 .70 .69 .61 .64 .71 25 SFS45A 1346 1443 .78 .78 .73 .73 26 SFS45B 1321 1616 .59 .70 .76 .75 .71 .72 .62 .63 .67 .68 .61 27 SFS45C 1454 1612 .45 .52 .58 .66 .60 .54 28 SFS55A 1485 1716 .61 .68 .64 .53 .63 .61 .31A .33B .33 29 SFS55B 1424 1630 .60 .60 .58 .50 .60 .60 .56 .62 .61 30 SFS56A 1405 1626 .78 .69 .50 .63 .77 .72 .76 .65 .67 31 SFS56B 1380 1658 .46 .59 .59 .46 .55 .73 .70 .78 .78 .67 .64 37 SFS70A 1374 1509 .72 .73 .77 .78 .66 .52 38 SFS70B 1360 1590 .60 .65 .65 .68 .69 .62 .57 .64 .67 53 SFS93A 1588 1983 .71 .70 .64 .58 .70 .74 .70 .64 .61 .66 54 SFS93C 1587 1990 .62 .69 .74 .68 .70 .66 .63 .53 .56 .61 55 SFS95A 1645 1990 .49 .50 .55 .50 .49 .63 .44 .37 56 SFS95B 1734 1990 .45 .54 .39 .32A 57 SFS95C 1570 1990 .38 .37 .25B .44 .52 .59 .54 .45 .54 .52 .44 58 SFS98A 1803 1989 .12B 59 SFS99B 1809 1990 .18B 63 SFB03A 1342 1617 .48 .59 .71 .74 .75 .65 .76 .80 .74 .76 .70 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 23:36 Mon 01 JUL 1996 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under 0.3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2 SFS07A 1767 1990 .66 .73 .76 .80 .66 .66 3 SFS07C 1770 1990 .57 .58 .62 .59 .36 .36 4 SFS07D 1751 1990 .44 .44 .72 .64 .35B .41 5 SFS08A 1723 1990 .53 .81 .85 .83 .86 .82 6 SFS08B 1723 1990 .57 .74 .79 .78 .83 .84 7 SFS08C 1723 1990 .44 .81 .78 .75 .85 .88 10 SFS22B 1624 1990 .34 .38 .57 .61 .83 .78 11 SFS23A 1840 1990 .42B .37 .41 .68 .74 .65 12 SFS23B 1866 1990 .68 .68 .77 .77 .78 13 SFS23C 1716 1974 .38 .56 .63 .76 .80 15 SFS24C 1858 1990 .49 .55 .74 .70 .66 32 SFS62A 1863 1990 .69 .77 .79 .77 .66 33 SFS62C 1895 1990 .73 .79 .79 .73 34 SFS67A 1903 1990 .61 .78 .82 35 SFS68B 1905 1990 .79 .77 .61 36 SFS69B 1859 1990 .46 .65 .51 .50 .49 39 SFS81A 1899 1990 .70 .70 .80 .73 40 SFS81B 1894 1990 .65 .62 .71 .63 41 SFS82A 1932 1990 .77 .76 42 SFS82B 1906 1990 .86 .86 .88 43 SFS84A 1928 1990 .50 .72 44 SFS85A 1936 1990 .62 .66 45 SFS88A 1869 1960 .63 .71 .80 .70 46 SFS88B 1889 1970 .61 .61 .50 47 SFS89A 1891 1990 .74 .79 .85 .80 48 SFS89B 1911 1990 .85 .83 .79 49 SFS90A 1916 1990 .86 .82 .75 50 SFS90B 1927 1990 .83 .80 51 SFS91A 1900 1990 .89 .91 .79 52 SFS91B 1905 1990 .83 .81 .80 53 SFS93A 1588 1983 .70 .71 .76 .86 .92 .90 54 SFS93C 1587 1990 .64 .73 .78 .85 .87 .82 55 SFS95A 1645 1990 .55 .64 .74 .85 .86 .85 56 SFS95B 1734 1990 .41 .60 .68 .77 .67 .50 57 SFS95C 1570 1990 .47 .62 .83 .74 .75 .74 58 SFS98A 1803 1989 .25A .53 .63 .69 .66 .67 59 SFS99B 1809 1990 .25B .39 .64 .71 .74 .74 60 SFB01A 1934 1990 .85 .85 61 SFB01B 1919 1990 .75 .77 .76 62 SFB02A 1882 1990 .77 .87 .87 .85 64 SFB04A 1934 1990 .74 .73 65 SFB05A 1930 1990 .77 .76 66 SFB05B 1952 1990 .72 67 SFB08A 1900 1990 .55 .82 .66 68 SFB08B 1875 1990 .50 .68 .80 .69 69 SFB09A 1876 1990 .76 .79 .80 .83 70 SFB09B 1868 1990 .74 .78 .85 .89 .85 71 SFB09C 1877 1990 .76 .83 .84 .80 72 SFB11A 1906 1990 .77 .75 .80 73 SFB11B 1914 1990 .81 .85 .77 74 SFB12A 1863 1990 .57 .63 .67 .70 .42 75 SFB13A 1849 1990 .70 .70 .77 .80 .87 .82 76 SFB13B 1861 1990 .68 .77 .83 .79 .74 77 SFB14A 1935 1990 .64 .63 78 SFB15A 1825 1990 .50 .71 .73 .77 .88 .88 79 SFB15B 1838 1990 .55 .65 .75 .86 .92 .91 80 SFB16A 1924 1990 .84 .85 .87 81 SFB18B 1910 1990 .73 .71 .59 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 23:36 Mon 01 JUL 1996 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 SFS03A 1473 1718 246 10 0 0.621 1.06 3.45 0.586 0.338 0.482 2.14 0.379 0.015 2 2 SFS07A 1767 1990 224 9 0 0.701 0.57 2.57 0.391 0.417 0.535 2.25 0.413 -0.051 1 3 SFS07C 1770 1990 221 9 0 0.554 0.45 2.00 0.327 0.568 0.682 2.17 0.391 -0.030 1 4 SFS07D 1751 1990 240 9 1 0.530 0.62 2.98 0.587 0.681 0.674 2.13 0.368 -0.031 2 5 SFS08A 1723 1990 268 11 0 0.710 0.45 4.11 0.482 0.534 0.654 2.15 0.381 -0.010 1 6 SFS08B 1723 1990 268 11 0 0.732 0.47 5.62 0.573 0.457 0.608 2.15 0.343 -0.012 3 7 SFS08C 1723 1990 268 11 0 0.719 0.51 4.01 0.541 0.538 0.644 2.14 0.369 -0.053 1 8 SFS13A 1453 1651 199 8 0 0.506 1.14 3.15 0.593 0.690 0.319 2.12 0.397 -0.020 1 9 SFS22A 1589 1781 193 8 0 0.652 1.02 4.48 0.764 0.636 0.526 2.26 0.386 -0.010 1 10 SFS22B 1624 1990 367 15 2 0.507 0.77 5.08 0.701 0.549 0.714 2.08 0.158 0.010 1 11 SFS23A 1840 1990 151 6 1 0.556 1.05 7.57 1.198 0.654 0.692 2.25 0.401 -0.022 1 12 SFS23B 1866 1990 125 5 0 0.749 0.88 7.94 1.060 0.506 0.566 2.64 0.490 -0.041 1 13 SFS23C 1716 1974 259 10 0 0.600 0.86 8.22 0.912 0.610 0.447 2.31 0.369 -0.024 1 14 SFS23D 1683 1808 126 5 1 0.413 0.64 2.36 0.466 0.488 0.493 2.30 0.428 -0.061 1 15 SFS24C 1858 1990 133 5 0 0.623 0.87 3.46 0.624 0.529 0.426 2.03 0.312 -0.006 1 16 SFS28A 1497 1633 137 6 0 0.567 1.31 5.20 0.680 0.284 0.375 2.28 0.386 -0.016 1 17 SFS28B 1483 1654 172 7 0 0.600 0.79 1.94 0.289 0.330 0.302 2.19 0.376 0.008 1 18 SFS31A 1480 1575 96 4 0 0.695 1.52 3.39 0.660 0.025 0.474 2.09 0.437 -0.036 2 19 SFS33A 1453 1561 109 4 0 0.661 0.85 4.60 0.613 0.364 0.435 2.37 0.493 0.010 1 20 SFS33B 1444 1657 214 9 0 0.651 1.49 4.74 0.846 0.472 0.415 2.40 0.417 -0.029 1 21 SFS36A 1408 1813 406 16 2 0.583 1.01 3.94 0.675 0.547 0.486 2.20 0.314 0.006 1 22 SFS36B 1467 1761 295 12 0 0.648 1.30 5.81 1.012 0.367 0.542 2.31 0.403 0.008 1 23 SFS40A 1475 1641 167 6 0 0.689 1.43 4.45 0.683 0.470 0.336 2.00 0.347 -0.010 1 24 SFS40B 1499 1669 171 7 0 0.680 1.18 3.48 0.501 0.557 0.296 2.01 0.311 -0.017 2 25 SFS45A 1346 1443 98 4 0 0.757 1.59 8.25 1.385 0.319 0.651 2.68 0.519 0.003 1 26 SFS45B 1321 1616 296 11 0 0.654 1.18 6.19 0.958 0.401 0.535 2.13 0.307 0.016 1 27 SFS45C 1454 1612 159 6 0 0.534 0.82 6.80 0.845 0.313 0.646 2.58 0.445 0.057 1 28 SFS55A 1485 1716 232 9 2 0.501 0.93 2.54 0.489 0.600 0.333 2.07 0.388 -0.003 5 29 SFS55B 1424 1630 207 9 0 0.581 1.15 4.71 0.863 0.394 0.536 2.41 0.494 -0.001 2 30 SFS56A 1405 1626 222 9 0 0.691 1.01 2.59 0.440 0.311 0.392 2.08 0.313 -0.013 2 31 SFS56B 1380 1658 279 11 0 0.610 0.90 2.51 0.386 0.432 0.340 2.30 0.367 -0.015 2 32 SFS62A 1863 1990 128 5 0 0.694 0.66 3.45 0.585 0.422 0.700 2.32 0.403 -0.037 1 33 SFS62C 1895 1990 96 4 0 0.725 0.58 3.90 0.617 0.382 0.668 2.49 0.487 0.029 1 34 SFS67A 1903 1990 88 3 0 0.680 2.00 7.46 1.407 0.566 0.581 2.25 0.462 -0.056 2 35 SFS68B 1905 1990 86 3 0 0.672 1.12 6.97 1.313 0.416 0.704 2.56 0.547 0.056 1 36 SFS69B 1859 1990 132 5 0 0.503 0.84 9.98 1.298 0.687 0.636 2.25 0.362 -0.110 1 37 SFS70A 1374 1509 136 6 0 0.676 1.06 3.31 0.621 0.046 0.527 2.42 0.509 0.024 1 38 SFS70B 1360 1590 231 9 0 0.637 1.07 4.88 0.725 0.228 0.571 2.30 0.370 0.014 1 39 SFS81A 1899 1990 92 4 0 0.697 0.96 7.74 1.180 0.374 0.692 2.51 0.469 -0.019 1 40 SFS81B 1894 1990 97 4 0 0.625 0.89 3.48 0.840 0.405 0.785 2.15 0.437 -0.062 1 41 SFS82A 1932 1990 59 2 0 0.766 1.14 6.07 1.177 0.566 0.777 2.39 0.555 -0.149 1 42 SFS82B 1906 1990 85 3 0 0.871 1.40 7.00 1.152 0.243 0.646 2.51 0.482 -0.035 1 43 SFS84A 1928 1990 63 2 0 0.497 1.37 7.96 1.428 0.645 0.514 2.53 0.514 -0.023 1 44 SFS85A 1936 1990 55 2 0 0.632 1.21 7.18 1.416 0.764 0.506 2.12 0.449 -0.171 2 45 SFS88A 1869 1960 92 4 0 0.632 2.07 9.98 1.957 0.628 0.739 2.29 0.461 0.054 1 46 SFS88B 1889 1970 82 3 0 0.572 1.73 6.82 1.400 0.578 0.693 2.11 0.429 -0.075 2 47 SFS89A 1891 1990 100 4 0 0.772 2.58 8.54 1.861 0.312 0.559 2.35 0.526 -0.011 1 48 SFS89B 1911 1990 80 3 0 0.823 2.49 7.61 1.545 0.469 0.462 2.26 0.478 -0.024 1 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 23:36 Mon 01 JUL 1996 Page 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 49 SFS90A 1916 1990 75 3 0 0.774 1.81 9.85 1.649 0.429 0.557 2.30 0.420 -0.002 1 50 SFS90B 1927 1990 64 2 0 0.788 1.48 8.19 1.337 0.520 0.555 2.51 0.510 -0.112 1 51 SFS91A 1900 1990 91 3 0 0.828 1.79 8.79 1.661 0.440 0.691 2.37 0.443 -0.025 1 52 SFS91B 1905 1990 86 3 0 0.795 1.98 7.02 1.418 0.384 0.606 2.28 0.493 -0.021 1 53 SFS93A 1588 1983 396 16 0 0.711 0.67 4.90 0.675 0.664 0.567 2.26 0.327 -0.022 1 54 SFS93C 1587 1990 404 16 0 0.691 0.80 6.57 0.777 0.636 0.590 2.25 0.348 -0.008 1 55 SFS95A 1645 1990 346 14 0 0.608 0.33 1.45 0.210 0.354 0.552 2.27 0.368 0.003 1 56 SFS95B 1734 1990 257 10 1 0.517 0.53 7.78 0.793 0.715 0.574 2.15 0.300 -0.017 2 57 SFS95C 1570 1990 421 17 1 0.566 0.40 2.35 0.281 0.379 0.552 2.26 0.330 -0.014 1 58 SFS98A 1803 1989 187 7 2 0.511 0.56 4.92 0.715 0.428 0.670 2.47 0.368 -0.024 3 59 SFS99B 1809 1990 182 7 2 0.516 0.39 2.11 0.332 0.594 0.581 2.43 0.433 0.004 1 60 SFB01A 1934 1990 57 2 0 0.856 1.08 4.51 0.872 0.194 0.528 2.72 0.556 0.024 1 61 SFB01B 1919 1990 72 3 0 0.786 1.53 7.28 1.448 0.264 0.602 2.45 0.500 -0.005 1 62 SFB02A 1882 1990 109 4 0 0.806 2.03 6.62 1.521 0.367 0.603 2.46 0.537 -0.023 1 63 SFB03A 1342 1617 276 11 0 0.676 1.22 5.03 0.633 0.441 0.402 2.26 0.412 -0.006 1 64 SFB04A 1934 1990 57 2 0 0.751 1.42 5.44 1.237 0.548 0.582 2.18 0.483 -0.160 1 65 SFB05A 1930 1990 61 2 0 0.763 1.68 5.41 1.237 0.613 0.432 2.29 0.488 -0.038 1 66 SFB05B 1952 1990 39 1 0 0.717 1.89 6.43 1.645 0.612 0.423 2.41 0.441 -0.112 1 67 SFB08A 1900 1990 91 3 0 0.573 1.20 7.05 1.547 0.348 1.019 2.31 0.462 -0.019 1 68 SFB08B 1875 1990 116 4 0 0.646 1.02 5.92 1.152 0.391 0.890 2.24 0.427 -0.090 1 69 SFB09A 1876 1990 115 4 0 0.771 1.21 7.29 1.250 0.408 0.592 2.41 0.439 -0.024 1 70 SFB09B 1868 1990 123 5 0 0.811 1.25 7.71 1.267 0.597 0.529 2.23 0.350 -0.047 1 71 SFB09C 1877 1990 114 4 0 0.780 1.61 9.98 2.122 0.639 0.562 2.24 0.387 -0.016 1 72 SFB11A 1906 1990 85 3 0 0.765 1.04 6.74 0.912 0.323 0.643 2.49 0.481 0.071 1 73 SFB11B 1914 1990 77 3 0 0.793 1.15 7.03 1.506 0.560 0.827 2.53 0.473 -0.012 1 74 SFB12A 1863 1990 128 5 0 0.552 1.39 6.03 1.257 0.626 0.568 2.07 0.252 0.004 4 75 SFB13A 1849 1990 142 6 0 0.764 1.52 8.47 1.631 0.788 0.521 2.17 0.346 -0.006 1 76 SFB13B 1861 1990 130 5 0 0.747 1.22 7.94 1.114 0.678 0.511 2.26 0.402 -0.077 1 77 SFB14A 1935 1990 56 2 0 0.627 1.94 8.27 2.068 0.750 0.624 2.16 0.434 -0.111 1 78 SFB15A 1825 1990 166 6 0 0.699 0.76 6.69 1.087 0.652 0.704 2.21 0.379 -0.030 1 79 SFB15B 1838 1990 153 6 0 0.749 0.87 6.16 1.101 0.477 0.686 2.37 0.363 -0.008 1 80 SFB16A 1924 1990 67 3 0 0.847 1.19 5.97 1.095 0.313 0.537 2.59 0.451 0.007 1 81 SFB18B 1910 1990 81 3 0 0.619 0.66 4.03 0.813 0.558 0.656 2.33 0.427 -0.075 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 13074 513 15 0.646 0.99 9.98 0.826 0.486 0.556 2.72 0.387 -0.017