Geyzspchu, Bhutan - bt009 Additional Site Information Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : BT009.CRN Measurement file name : BT009.RWL Date checked : 01SEP11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1457 Ending year : 2002 Principal investigators: Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Site name : Geyzspchu Site location : Bhutan Species information : PCSN SIKKIM SPRUCE Latitude : 2725 Longitude : 09058 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.470 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.149 Avg standard deviation : 0.372 Avg autocorrelation : 0.915 Number dated series : 19 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 37 Pct problem segments : 13.75 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Geyzspchu 16:42 Thu 01 Sep 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 GCPS01B 1457 2002 .38 .37 .26A .13B .24A .57 .62 .55 .57 .51 .48 .62 .62 .59 .54 .53 .68 .72 .51 .32A 2 GCPS03A 1512 2002 .08B .08B .35 .64 .64 .60 .64 .60 .46 .42 .34 .51 .66 .51 .54 .59 .58 .54 3 GCPS05B 1783 2002 .63 .59 .47 .59 .71 .68 .62 4 GCPS07A 1793 2002 .50 .64 .45 .43 .23B .22B .48 5 GCPS07B 1592 2002 .46 .48 .56 .55 .53 .33A .14B .20B .42 .65 .58 .62 .59 .48 .42 6 GCPS08A 1730 1908 .36 .30A .53 .64 .56 .54 .53 7 GCPS08B 1758 2002 .42 .32A .50 .81 .74 .41 .06B .19B 8 GCPS09B 1599 2002 .53 .56 .63 .32B .29B .57 .39 .17B .38 .49 .50 .62 .62 .41 .23B 9 GCPS14A 1799 2002 .34B .34B .56 .59 .62 .59 .45 10 GCPS14B 1762 2002 .40 .48 .51 .46 .57 .54 .44 .45 11 GCPS16B 1772 2002 .34 .31A .44 .60 .69 .69 .42 .39 12 GCPS17A 1580 2002 .56 .54 .51 .51 .37 .38 .51 .49 .49 .52 .63 .66 .63 .51 .24A 13 GCPS17B 1573 2002 .55 .56 .79 .62 .49 .43 .34 .33 .29B .31A .44 .64 .58 .57 .36 .16B 14 GCPS18A 1645 2002 .44 .38 .42 .45 .37 .48 .59 .57 .49 .70 .68 .49 .46 15 GCPS18B 1602 2002 .48 .51 .29B .32B .43 .56 .58 .54 .60 .54 .68 .73 .39 .28B 16 GCPS19A 1474 2002 .28A .22A .12B .35 .50 .41 .45 .54 .53 .46 .54 .64 .59 .69 .63 .63 .54 .52 .50 .43 17 GCPS19B 1540 2002 .34 .37 .56 .48 .56 .65 .58 .62 .64 .54 .68 .62 .56 .51 .59 .56 .37 18 GCPS21A 1753 2002 .40 .51 .43 .32A .28A .41 .38 .24A 19 GCPS21B 1711 2002 .25A .44 .60 .46 .44 .46 .46 .66 .54 .45 Av segment correlation .33 .30 .15 .22 .40 .53 .56 .55 .49 .45 .44 .45 .42 .49 .54 .54 .58 .58 .45 .37 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Geyzspchu 16:42 Thu 01 Sep 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1950 1975 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 GCPS01B 1457 2002 .41 .36 2 GCPS03A 1512 2002 .60 .58 3 GCPS05B 1783 2002 .74 .70 4 GCPS07A 1793 2002 .49 .45 5 GCPS07B 1592 2002 .48 .45 7 GCPS08B 1758 2002 .45 .46 8 GCPS09B 1599 2002 .36 .31A 9 GCPS14A 1799 2002 .54 .51 10 GCPS14B 1762 2002 .42 .39 11 GCPS16B 1772 2002 .56 .54 12 GCPS17A 1580 2002 .43 .47 13 GCPS17B 1573 2002 .41 .45 14 GCPS18A 1645 2002 .62 .59 15 GCPS18B 1602 2002 .60 .59 16 GCPS19A 1474 2002 .55 .53 17 GCPS19B 1540 2002 .50 .48 18 GCPS21A 1753 2002 .55 .56 19 GCPS21B 1711 2002 .68 .66 Av segment correlation .52 .50 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Geyzspchu 16:42 Thu 01 Sep 2011 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 GCPS01B 1457 2002 546 22 4 .451 .72 2.28 .471 .936 .194 2.56 .272 -.026 1 2 GCPS03A 1512 2002 491 20 2 .483 .66 3.25 .472 .946 .162 2.72 .365 -.012 3 3 GCPS05B 1783 2002 220 9 0 .620 .23 .65 .101 .767 .217 2.62 .325 -.021 1 4 GCPS07A 1793 2002 210 9 2 .383 .64 2.74 .407 .944 .152 2.67 .314 .004 2 5 GCPS07B 1592 2002 411 17 3 .472 .53 1.52 .204 .866 .152 2.76 .330 -.014 1 6 GCPS08A 1730 1908 179 7 1 .461 .92 2.28 .413 .949 .118 2.69 .492 -.020 3 7 GCPS08B 1758 2002 245 10 3 .388 1.17 3.46 .688 .944 .135 2.58 .274 -.031 1 8 GCPS09B 1599 2002 404 17 5 .431 .64 2.63 .455 .959 .142 2.68 .382 -.003 1 9 GCPS14A 1799 2002 204 9 2 .518 1.25 2.61 .472 .902 .127 2.64 .389 -.006 1 10 GCPS14B 1762 2002 241 10 0 .448 1.23 3.57 .607 .933 .137 2.62 .378 -.010 1 11 GCPS16B 1772 2002 231 10 1 .467 .97 1.90 .334 .896 .122 2.63 .432 -.040 3 12 GCPS17A 1580 2002 423 17 1 .477 .48 1.33 .262 .943 .155 2.37 .184 -.014 2 13 GCPS17B 1573 2002 430 18 3 .429 .96 2.79 .495 .919 .156 2.41 .194 -.037 3 14 GCPS18A 1645 2002 358 15 0 .517 .56 1.24 .220 .906 .134 2.70 .306 -.019 3 15 GCPS18B 1602 2002 401 16 3 .482 .66 1.71 .340 .949 .132 2.58 .282 -.039 1 16 GCPS19A 1474 2002 529 22 3 .473 .79 2.13 .360 .941 .137 2.50 .276 -.036 3 17 GCPS19B 1540 2002 463 19 0 .530 .76 1.39 .225 .856 .131 2.64 .281 -.017 1 18 GCPS21A 1753 2002 250 10 3 .395 .95 1.85 .314 .891 .124 2.56 .388 -.049 1 19 GCPS21B 1711 2002 292 12 1 .475 .82 1.77 .312 .864 .170 2.61 .351 .026 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 6528 269 37 .470 .76 3.57 .372 .915 .149 2.76 .313 -.020