Laya Chamsa, Bhutan - bt018 Additional Site Information Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : BT018.CRN Measurement file name : BT018.RWL Date checked : 06SEP11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1453 Ending year : 2006 Principal investigators: Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Site name : Laya Chamsa Site location : Bhutan Species information : JURE DROOPING JUNIPER Latitude : 2757 Longitude : 08945 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.481 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.223 Avg standard deviation : 0.311 Avg autocorrelation : 0.824 Number dated series : 23 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 26 Pct problem segments : 11.30 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Laya Chamsa 14:32 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 LY2JR20A 1468 2006 .12B .15B .35 .34 .56 .55 .45 .52 .52 .65 .73 .60 .59 .60 .40 .31A .45 .53 .55 .59 2 LY2JR20C 1453 2006 .12B .15B .35 .34 .56 .56 .37 .28A .45 .73 .46 .43 .68 .63 .45 .42 .64 .55 .34 .40 3 LY2JR20B 1650 2006 .43 .50 .44 .35 .47 .33B .12B .37 .44 .33 .39 .47 4 LY2JR07A 1639 2006 .24B .31B .46 .49 .51 .67 .50 .46 .51 .53 .67 .60 .63 5 LY2JR01A 1805 2006 .08B .13B .51 .67 .64 .64 6 LY2JR12A 1750 2006 .57 .61 .58 .42 .55 .66 .71 .65 7 LY2JR01B 1798 2002 .53 .53 .42 .43 .57 .66 .48 8 LY2JR04A 1788 2006 .59 .55 .35 .55 .68 .51 .38 9 LY2JR12B 1814 2006 .62 .52 .61 .73 .55 .46 10 LY2JR09A 1834 2006 .34 .64 .67 .44 .44 11 LY2JR14A 1739 2006 .34 .40 .61 .64 .69 .65 .58 .64 .51 12 LY2JR21A 1834 2006 .25B .25A .42 .51 .54 13 LY2JR03B 1809 2006 .31A .16B .38 .56 .34 .49 14 LY2JR04B 1817 2006 .54 .59 .54 .46 .48 .55 15 LY2JR06A 1775 2006 .20B .29B .38 .36 .58 .59 .42 16 LY2JR09B 1819 2006 .58 .56 .45 .37 .48 .44 17 LY2JRO6B 1755 2006 .52 .44 .40 .30B .40 .55 .52 .53 18 LY2JR12C 1778 2006 .65 .64 .57 .59 .56 .59 .68 19 LY2JR14B 1711 2006 .60 .47 .48 .44 .44 .52 .55 .46 .49 .51 20 LY2JRO6C 1838 2006 .47 .55 .53 .46 .59 21 LY2JR02B 1820 1940 .32B .33B .56 .54 .56 22 LY2JR05A 1831 1969 .38B .44 .38B .52 .53 23 LY2JR17B 1827 2006 .42 .56 .61 .57 .64 Av segment correlation .12 .15 .35 .34 .56 .56 .41 .35 .43 .59 .54 .45 .55 .51 .44 .41 .51 .55 .53 .53 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Laya Chamsa 14:32 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1950 1975 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 LY2JR20A 1468 2006 .43 .40 2 LY2JR20C 1453 2006 .40B .54 3 LY2JR20B 1650 2006 .51 .49 4 LY2JR07A 1639 2006 .69 .70 5 LY2JR01A 1805 2006 .71 .68 6 LY2JR12A 1750 2006 .59 .60 7 LY2JR01B 1798 2002 .40 .40 8 LY2JR04A 1788 2006 .35 .41 9 LY2JR12B 1814 2006 .53 .67 10 LY2JR09A 1834 2006 .66 .62 11 LY2JR14A 1739 2006 .40 .56 12 LY2JR21A 1834 2006 .33A .20A 13 LY2JR03B 1809 2006 .50 .53 14 LY2JR04B 1817 2006 .50 .52 15 LY2JR06A 1775 2006 .42 .51 16 LY2JR09B 1819 2006 .47 .58 17 LY2JRO6B 1755 2006 .56 .56 18 LY2JR12C 1778 2006 .62 .66 19 LY2JR14B 1711 2006 .37 .40 20 LY2JRO6C 1838 2006 .60 .56 23 LY2JR17B 1827 2006 .45 .60 Av segment correlation .50 .53 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Laya Chamsa 14:32 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 LY2JR20A 1468 2006 539 22 3 .444 .59 2.45 .347 .809 .277 2.86 .399 -.004 2 2 LY2JR20C 1453 2006 554 22 4 .428 .62 2.23 .352 .782 .266 2.83 .354 .003 2 3 LY2JR20B 1650 2006 357 14 2 .398 .47 1.43 .242 .717 .315 2.88 .378 -.047 2 4 LY2JR07A 1639 2006 368 15 2 .498 .36 .82 .145 .735 .256 2.56 .333 -.006 2 5 LY2JR01A 1805 2006 202 8 2 .496 .85 2.90 .450 .865 .237 2.59 .379 -.013 1 6 LY2JR12A 1750 2006 257 10 0 .588 .57 1.23 .214 .831 .168 2.84 .456 .004 1 7 LY2JR01B 1798 2002 205 9 0 .454 1.02 2.72 .500 .920 .184 2.36 .216 -.010 5 8 LY2JR04A 1788 2006 219 9 0 .518 .84 2.99 .613 .933 .182 2.79 .453 .006 1 9 LY2JR12B 1814 2006 193 8 0 .609 .61 1.26 .228 .778 .207 2.66 .442 -.022 1 10 LY2JR09A 1834 2006 173 7 0 .502 .58 1.79 .353 .907 .185 2.47 .335 .014 2 11 LY2JR14A 1739 2006 268 11 0 .551 .33 .65 .130 .724 .280 2.72 .493 -.014 2 12 LY2JR21A 1834 2006 173 7 4 .303 .55 2.32 .356 .831 .253 2.72 .371 -.052 4 13 LY2JR03B 1809 2006 198 8 2 .414 .63 2.01 .395 .924 .252 2.80 .397 .060 2 14 LY2JR04B 1817 2006 190 8 0 .538 .68 1.93 .355 .892 .176 2.67 .388 .017 1 15 LY2JR06A 1775 2006 232 9 2 .420 .51 1.67 .267 .809 .230 2.49 .272 -.044 2 16 LY2JR09B 1819 2006 188 8 0 .501 .70 3.11 .500 .946 .177 2.53 .381 .038 1 17 LY2JRO6B 1755 2006 252 10 1 .476 .49 1.11 .214 .891 .178 2.52 .288 .010 1 18 LY2JR12C 1778 2006 229 9 0 .620 .54 1.04 .163 .736 .163 2.75 .420 -.036 1 19 LY2JR14B 1711 2006 296 12 0 .475 .50 1.00 .166 .771 .189 2.53 .343 .005 8 20 LY2JRO6C 1838 2006 169 7 0 .510 .60 1.17 .207 .847 .158 2.65 .331 -.011 1 21 LY2JR02B 1820 1940 121 5 2 .439 1.32 3.10 .829 .978 .123 2.70 .475 -.022 1 22 LY2JR05A 1831 1969 139 5 2 .421 .77 1.90 .397 .914 .180 2.50 .409 -.031 1 23 LY2JR17B 1827 2006 180 7 0 .558 .46 1.34 .204 .824 .204 2.58 .382 -.021 6 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5702 230 26 .481 .60 3.11 .311 .824 .223 2.88 .376 -.007