Trail Gulch update, Colorado - co649 Additional Information Connie Woodhouse Mark Losleben Jeff Lukas Kurt Chowanski Purpose of Collection: Climatology - Snowpack reconstruction Reference: Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, C.A. Woodhouse, J.L. Betancourt, D.B. Fagre, J.S. Littell, E. Watson, B.H. Luckman, and L.J. Graumlich. 2011. The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. Sciencexpress, Published online 9 June 2011. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201570 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : CO649.CRN Measurement file name : CO649.RWL Date checked : 07JUN11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 996 Ending year : 2002 Principal investigators: Connie Woodhouse Mark Losleben Jeff Lukas Kurt Chowanski Site name : Trail Gulch update Site location : Colorado Species information : PIED PINYON Latitude : 3943 Longitude : -10659 Elevation : 2210m Series intercorrelation: 0.876 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.523 Avg standard deviation : 0.200 Avg autocorrelation : 0.476 Number dated series : 68 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 0 Pct problem segments : 0.00 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update 16:44 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 trx101 996 1209 .92 .92 .96 .95 .93 .96 .77 .65 .72 2 trx102 996 1045 .92 3 trx102 1067 1203 .87 .79 .92 .85 .72 .76 4 trx061 1310 1560 .82 .81 .86 .88 .89 .90 .84 5 trx062 1363 1536 .88 .88 .85 .84 .90 6 trx011 1308 1443 .75 .87 .90 .84 .85 7 trx012 1308 1426 .73 .85 .84 .84 .84 8 trx051 1443 1557 .83 .76 9 trx131 1180 1359 .62 .77 .83 .86 .86 .88 .87 10 trx131 1462 1579 .81 11 trx132 1180 1406 .59 .81 .86 .87 .94 .90 .88 .94 .93 12 trx151 1170 1414 .70 .76 .86 .90 .93 .97 .95 .92 .93 .90 13 trx152 1170 1342 .72 .76 .81 .84 .91 .94 .90 14 trx211 1290 1579 .90 .91 .91 .90 .90 .83 .82 .81 15 trx213 1226 1579 .78 .83 .88 .90 .87 .83 .86 .85 .86 .81 16 trx212 1290 1443 .90 .90 .90 .89 .88 .83 17 trx212 1464 1565 .79 18 trx221 1333 1450 .89 .89 .90 .90 .90 19 trx081 1367 1579 .91 .92 .87 .83 .86 20 trx082 1275 1353 .91 .92 .92 21 trx082 1371 1579 .86 .91 .90 .92 .87 22 trx121 1160 1447 .75 .81 .84 .91 .91 .87 .82 .84 .90 .90 .88 23 trx072 1180 1283 .85 .85 .74 .77 24 trx071 1190 1350 .91 .92 .90 .88 .83 .85 .85 25 trx161 1268 1440 .80 .76 .79 .83 .84 .87 .89 26 trx122 1160 1443 .75 .87 .90 .90 .93 .93 .88 .85 .92 .91 .90 39 trg222 1408 1999 .79 .88 .85 41 trg032 1469 1962 .73 42 trg031 1429 1996 .47 .70 43 trg212 1446 1512 .85 .83 49 trg221 1402 1983 .52 .81 .80 Av segment correlation .92 .92 .96 .91 .86 .94 .81 .72 .76 .84 .85 .87 .89 .86 .87 .89 .89 .84 .83 .81 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update 16:44 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 trx061 1310 1560 .84 .87 .89 5 trx062 1363 1536 .93 .91 8 trx051 1443 1557 .72 .84 .87 10 trx131 1462 1579 .87 .89 .88 .86 14 trx211 1290 1579 .80 .79 .78 .79 15 trx213 1226 1579 .79 .76 .78 .77 17 trx212 1464 1565 .79 .68 .64 19 trx081 1367 1579 .89 .90 .91 .89 21 trx082 1371 1579 .91 .88 .89 .88 27 trg231 1819 1999 .96 .96 .95 .90 .92 .96 .95 28 trg131 1677 1999 .73 .76 .80 .84 .74 .75 .84 .80 .85 .84 .83 .93 29 trg121 1650 1999 .84 .87 .92 .90 .85 .85 .82 .88 .92 .87 .86 .91 .92 30 trg042 1499 1999 .83 .86 .85 .84 .90 .87 .89 .90 .90 .90 .91 .88 .90 .92 .91 .92 .83 .84 .90 .89 31 trg241 1809 1999 .87 .92 .93 .93 .87 .89 .86 32 trg021 1521 1999 .71 .70 .72 .77 .83 .90 .93 .93 .94 .92 .91 .91 .88 .88 .89 .87 .87 .87 .83 33 trg132 1706 1999 .84 .89 .88 .83 .80 .82 .87 .86 .87 .91 .95 34 trg242 1821 1999 .87 .86 .87 .88 .83 .83 .89 35 trg041 1536 1999 .78 .87 .80 .79 .85 .86 .91 .92 .91 .92 .93 .94 .95 .95 .89 .87 .89 .90 36 trg122 1628 1999 .78 .77 .88 .93 .93 .93 .87 .84 .83 .88 .88 .85 .90 .79 37 trg011 1670 1999 .82 .84 .90 .91 .89 .91 .89 .91 .94 .90 .86 .88 .88 38 trg142 1797 1999 .84 .83 .87 .91 .91 .91 .89 .85 39 trg222 1408 1999 .86 .85 .83 .88 .87 .88 .90 .91 .88 .88 .91 .88 .83 .87 .92 .93 .90 .92 .94 .93 40 trg232 1720 1999 .94 .94 .94 .88 .87 .92 .91 .84 .87 .94 .94 41 trg032 1469 1962 .77 .84 .84 .86 .90 .86 .84 .93 .88 .88 .91 .94 .89 .81 .86 .87 .79 .76 .81 42 trg031 1429 1996 .83 .86 .81 .86 .91 .87 .88 .93 .94 .94 .95 .95 .93 .91 .91 .92 .90 .88 .80 .82 43 trg212 1446 1512 .83 44 trg212 1521 1650 .78 .82 .81 .85 .84 .83 45 trg211 1560 1700 .75 .64 .72 .77 .75 .75 46 trg211 1810 1999 .84 .89 .91 .83 .76 .76 .86 47 trg012 1678 1999 .87 .94 .96 .94 .91 .91 .92 .95 .95 .89 .85 .89 48 trg022 1548 1999 .72 .72 .67 .64 .87 .90 .92 .93 .89 .90 .84 .82 .90 .92 .90 .86 .88 .89 49 trg221 1402 1983 .83 .85 .80 .81 .82 .88 .91 .89 .84 .82 .89 .92 .79 .80 .89 .93 .95 .93 .91 .91 50 trg141 1582 1999 .90 .87 .89 .89 .90 .88 .84 .85 .85 .88 .92 .93 .79 .73 .85 .89 51 trg671 1559 2002 .91 .88 .81 .74 .79 .88 .89 .91 .87 .89 .86 .82 .93 .91 .89 .85 .86 52 trg611 1563 2002 .91 .87 .82 .82 .85 .86 .87 .91 .90 .88 .88 .91 .94 .91 .88 .90 .89 53 trg821 1625 2002 .82 .83 .88 .89 .89 .92 .88 .82 .85 .89 .87 .79 .82 .41 54 trg842 1772 2002 .50 .69 .69 .79 .67 .80 .86 .69 .71 55 trg621 1690 2002 .83 .88 .87 .85 .83 .83 .87 .90 .85 .74 .74 .74 56 trg661 1840 2002 .89 .91 .87 .82 .86 .91 57 trg662 1847 2002 .93 .92 .85 .79 .81 .87 58 trg851 1910 2002 .85 .83 .83 59 trg872 1742 2002 .79 .80 .80 .82 .89 .92 .77 .78 .89 .86 60 trg622 1670 2002 .77 .83 .85 .90 .86 .84 .87 .90 .87 .82 .88 .89 .84 61 trg871 1724 2001 .77 .78 .76 .71 .68 .82 .87 .75 .82 .82 .80 62 trg652 1514 2002 .88 .87 .89 .88 .89 .93 .95 .89 .86 .90 .93 .89 .85 .92 .96 .90 .87 .87 .88 63 trg831 1705 2002 .89 .90 .86 .83 .78 .86 .91 .95 .91 .84 .86 64 trg801 1785 2002 .82 .81 .84 .87 .78 .71 .76 .84 65 trg642 1529 2002 .80 .83 .91 .93 .88 .90 .91 .90 .94 .90 .86 .89 .94 .93 .87 .87 .90 .88 66 trg632 1800 2002 .84 .92 .89 .83 .83 .83 .86 67 trg832 1701 2002 .86 .80 .80 .88 .82 .90 .95 .86 .79 .80 .85 68 trg651 1508 2002 .78 .83 .87 .86 .86 .94 .96 .93 .94 .88 .76 .77 .81 .91 .94 .86 .79 .87 .86 Av segment correlation .83 .83 .81 .83 .84 .84 .86 .87 .87 .89 .89 .87 .85 .84 .89 .90 .86 .84 .85 .85 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update 16:44 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1975 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 51 trg671 1559 2002 .87 52 trg611 1563 2002 .89 53 trg821 1625 2002 .35 54 trg842 1772 2002 .70 55 trg621 1690 2002 .72 56 trg661 1840 2002 .90 57 trg662 1847 2002 .87 58 trg851 1910 2002 .84 59 trg872 1742 2002 .86 60 trg622 1670 2002 .85 61 trg871 1724 2001 .80 62 trg652 1514 2002 .89 63 trg831 1705 2002 .84 64 trg801 1785 2002 .84 65 trg642 1529 2002 .88 66 trg632 1800 2002 .86 67 trg832 1701 2002 .85 68 trg651 1508 2002 .85 Av segment correlation .82 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Trail Gulch update 16:44 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 14 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 trx101 996 1209 214 9 0 .882 .42 1.33 .210 .548 .471 2.55 .367 -.021 1 2 trx102 996 1045 50 1 0 .916 .55 1.28 .258 .366 .454 2.69 .517 -.006 1 3 trx102 1067 1203 137 6 0 .859 .29 .76 .146 .336 .556 2.54 .441 -.010 1 4 trx061 1310 1560 251 10 0 .870 .35 1.04 .181 .435 .562 2.53 .384 .021 1 5 trx062 1363 1536 174 7 0 .900 .26 .92 .156 .513 .585 2.70 .450 .011 1 6 trx011 1308 1443 136 5 0 .820 .81 2.53 .423 .650 .415 2.76 .462 -.079 1 7 trx012 1308 1426 119 5 0 .804 .80 1.90 .386 .687 .384 2.62 .443 .000 1 8 trx051 1443 1557 115 5 0 .796 .53 1.38 .257 .581 .384 2.78 .559 .036 2 9 trx131 1180 1359 180 7 0 .789 .42 .92 .176 .674 .315 2.55 .417 -.019 3 10 trx131 1462 1579 118 5 0 .881 .28 .85 .189 .332 .771 2.63 .477 -.005 2 11 trx132 1180 1406 227 9 0 .844 .34 .85 .171 .686 .400 2.51 .374 -.046 1 12 trx151 1170 1414 245 10 0 .897 .47 1.33 .280 .586 .497 2.51 .399 -.054 1 13 trx152 1170 1342 173 7 0 .875 .48 1.38 .258 .510 .520 2.43 .380 -.056 1 14 trx211 1290 1579 290 12 0 .870 .47 1.66 .294 .527 .597 2.67 .477 -.014 1 15 trx213 1226 1579 354 14 0 .851 .45 1.65 .319 .547 .654 2.69 .423 -.012 4 16 trx212 1290 1443 154 6 0 .884 .45 1.26 .244 .346 .571 2.73 .571 -.021 1 17 trx212 1464 1565 102 4 0 .816 .29 .74 .184 .464 .711 2.51 .538 -.014 2 18 trx221 1333 1450 118 5 0 .881 .40 1.59 .231 .645 .422 2.61 .533 -.038 1 19 trx081 1367 1579 213 9 0 .889 .30 .89 .180 .458 .631 2.81 .448 .013 2 20 trx082 1275 1353 79 3 0 .901 .47 1.32 .196 .268 .390 2.93 .528 .018 1 21 trx082 1371 1579 209 9 0 .897 .29 .70 .165 .318 .683 2.63 .540 -.026 2 22 trx121 1160 1447 288 11 0 .874 .43 1.70 .289 .811 .456 2.52 .322 -.023 1 23 trx072 1180 1283 104 4 0 .783 .39 .68 .133 .409 .345 2.47 .438 -.016 1 24 trx071 1190 1350 161 7 0 .854 .49 .88 .190 .558 .312 2.52 .425 -.027 1 25 trx161 1268 1440 173 7 0 .846 .30 .59 .122 .374 .435 2.46 .369 -.003 4 26 trx122 1160 1443 284 11 0 .883 .40 1.25 .215 .700 .411 2.58 .325 -.038 1 27 trg231 1819 1999 181 7 0 .957 .44 .83 .171 .255 .447 2.45 .360 -.013 1 28 trg131 1677 1999 323 12 0 .814 .63 1.35 .222 .564 .295 2.44 .335 .005 1 29 trg121 1650 1999 350 13 0 .892 .46 1.13 .198 .339 .458 2.42 .337 -.011 1 30 trg042 1499 1999 501 20 0 .900 .32 1.04 .184 .594 .530 2.52 .306 -.024 1 31 trg241 1809 1999 191 7 0 .885 .42 1.16 .217 .421 .542 2.53 .414 -.008 1 32 trg021 1521 1999 479 19 0 .868 .28 .73 .127 .314 .512 2.56 .346 -.016 1 33 trg132 1706 1999 294 11 0 .865 .60 1.55 .241 .624 .315 2.46 .314 .010 1 34 trg242 1821 1999 179 7 0 .904 .44 1.38 .221 .495 .481 2.45 .330 .014 1 35 trg041 1536 1999 464 18 0 .893 .35 .90 .172 .402 .519 2.67 .382 -.029 1 36 trg122 1628 1999 372 14 0 .876 .36 .83 .138 .373 .406 2.52 .336 .010 1 37 trg011 1670 1999 330 13 0 .911 .60 1.51 .275 .623 .371 2.36 .269 -.018 1 38 trg142 1797 1999 203 8 0 .899 .42 .89 .197 .496 .455 2.49 .400 -.032 1 39 trg222 1408 1999 592 23 0 .894 .41 1.81 .262 .446 .664 2.71 .383 -.040 1 40 trg232 1720 1999 280 11 0 .929 .32 .77 .139 .277 .494 2.51 .366 -.022 1 41 trg032 1469 1962 494 20 0 .841 .29 1.29 .246 .762 .702 2.57 .399 -.019 1 42 trg031 1429 1996 568 22 0 .861 .35 1.28 .229 .672 .597 2.59 .385 -.014 1 43 trg212 1446 1512 67 3 0 .844 .48 1.00 .192 .435 .406 2.78 .558 -.010 2 44 trg212 1521 1650 130 6 0 .881 .29 .79 .183 .527 .637 2.51 .450 .007 1 45 trg211 1560 1700 141 6 0 .817 .19 .48 .124 .294 .793 2.46 .395 -.009 1 46 trg211 1810 1999 190 7 0 .917 .29 .73 .153 .348 .592 2.35 .358 -.020 1 47 trg012 1678 1999 322 12 0 .916 .54 1.64 .251 .597 .405 2.47 .296 -.029 1 48 trg022 1548 1999 452 18 0 .874 .31 .68 .118 .264 .407 2.46 .288 -.020 1 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Trail Gulch update 16:44 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 15 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 49 trg221 1402 1983 582 23 0 .861 .27 .96 .180 .512 .689 2.53 .302 -.026 1 50 trg141 1582 1999 418 16 0 .878 .28 .71 .145 .420 .560 2.45 .331 -.035 1 51 trg671 1559 2002 444 18 0 .899 .30 .99 .197 .520 .650 2.54 .381 -.002 1 52 trg611 1563 2002 440 18 0 .892 .52 1.31 .232 .383 .480 2.45 .338 -.006 1 53 trg821 1625 2002 378 15 0 .838 .43 .89 .176 .388 .419 2.70 .368 .022 1 54 trg842 1772 2002 231 10 0 .767 .22 .54 .112 .536 .447 2.48 .324 .007 1 55 trg621 1690 2002 313 13 0 .867 .27 .65 .127 .497 .469 2.39 .260 -.011 2 56 trg661 1840 2002 163 7 0 .913 .30 .91 .190 .428 .746 2.52 .455 .014 1 57 trg662 1847 2002 156 7 0 .910 .48 1.22 .258 .451 .583 2.32 .358 -.008 1 58 trg851 1910 2002 93 4 0 .880 .45 1.40 .278 .755 .390 2.31 .344 -.045 1 59 trg872 1742 2002 261 11 0 .862 .42 1.31 .238 .514 .535 2.59 .384 -.006 1 60 trg622 1670 2002 333 14 0 .862 .26 .78 .149 .448 .547 2.60 .298 -.024 1 61 trg871 1724 2001 278 12 0 .821 .32 .98 .176 .390 .558 2.60 .399 -.017 2 62 trg652 1514 2002 489 20 0 .925 .33 .82 .181 .413 .591 2.55 .270 -.013 1 63 trg831 1705 2002 298 12 0 .888 .53 1.30 .245 .533 .424 2.49 .324 .007 2 64 trg801 1785 2002 218 9 0 .850 .52 1.15 .226 .423 .424 2.46 .340 .013 1 65 trg642 1529 2002 474 19 0 .922 .32 1.08 .164 .406 .571 2.47 .335 -.031 1 66 trg632 1800 2002 203 8 0 .912 .31 .66 .144 .234 .559 2.42 .340 -.033 1 67 trg832 1701 2002 302 12 0 .873 .44 .97 .186 .205 .497 2.58 .318 -.006 1 68 trg651 1508 2002 495 20 0 .890 .28 .74 .152 .353 .634 2.51 .345 -.012 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 18340 733 0 .876 .38 2.53 .200 .476 .523 2.93 .366 -.015