Summitville Bristlecone, Colorado - CO656 Additional Site Information Cody Routson Connie Woodhouse Jonathan Overpeck Reference: Cody C. Routson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Jonathan T. Overpeck. 2011. Second century megadrought in the Rio Grande headwaters, Colorado: How unusual was medieval drought? Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 22, L22703, November 2011. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050015 Funding sources: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) The Climates of Southwestern North American Megadrought: Multi-Proxy, Multivariate Observations and Analysis Keywords: Megadrought, Summitville, Bristlecone COFECHA output: Chronology file name : CO656.CRN Measurement file name : CO656.RWL Date checked : 28FEB18 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : -268 Ending year : 2009 Principal investigators: Cody Routson Connie Woodhouse Jonathan Overpeck Site name : Summitville Bristlecone Site location : Colorado Species information : PIAR ROCKY MOUNTAIN BRISTLECONE PINE Latitude : 3726 Longitude : -10638 Elevation : 3560M Series intercorrelation: 0.753 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.400 Avg standard deviation : 0.177 Avg autocorrelation : 0.628 Number dated series : 30 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 6 Pct problem segments : 0.63 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span -275 -250 -225 -200 -175 -150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 -226 -201 -176 -151 -126 -101 -76 -51 -26 -1 24 49 74 99 124 149 174 199 224 249 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 16 SMV035A 220 1202 .69 18 SMV037D 102 1193 .67 .73 .84 .80 .84 19 SMV038B -93 1092 .54 .66 .76 .79 .81 .77 .81 .80 .83 .83 .71 .53 .63 20 SMV039A -200 1146 .75 .74 .66 .63 .76 .72 .67 .70 .67 .72 .77 .79 .87 .88 .84 .57 .31B 23 SMV042A -76 1211 .61 .62 .74 .77 .86 .84 .83 .88 .88 .74 .71 .81 .75 24 SMV043A -268 443 .77 .78 .85 .79 .86 .74 .59 .73 .78 .83 .90 .87 .82 .80 .72 .71 .69 .75 .85 .77 25 SMV043B -268 375 .77 .78 .84 .79 .86 .83 .82 .83 .76 .80 .85 .80 .83 .85 .81 .85 .90 .88 .83 .80 27 SMV045A 100 968 .81 .85 .87 .62 .53 Av segment correlation .77 .78 .85 .78 .82 .74 .68 .69 .71 .76 .80 .80 .80 .81 .80 .80 .80 .80 .72 .66 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 274 299 324 349 374 399 424 449 474 499 524 549 574 599 624 649 674 699 724 749 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 14 SMV030A 368 1160 .86 .87 .79 .65 .69 .86 .80 .79 .85 .88 .87 .83 .82 .77 .72 15 SMV032A 229 1278 .76 .70 .75 .75 .71 .76 .77 .75 .73 .73 .71 .77 .85 .84 .86 .92 .90 .82 .83 .92 16 SMV035A 220 1202 .70 .71 .82 .76 .70 .54 .55 .79 .78 .69 .78 .63 .56 .73 .83 .86 .84 .90 .85 .85 17 SMV036B 513 1028 .51 .57 .46 .57 .80 .84 .75 .74 .85 18 SMV037D 102 1193 .83 .77 .81 .73 .66 .76 .86 .85 .85 .88 .86 .79 .77 .73 .75 .85 .82 .77 .78 .87 19 SMV038B -93 1092 .75 .72 .72 .69 .64 .70 .78 .81 .85 .78 .71 .76 .75 .74 .74 .83 .88 .88 .79 .79 20 SMV039A -200 1146 .55 .78 .79 .78 .65 .61 .81 .85 .84 .80 .72 .80 .75 .65 .73 .85 .84 .88 .84 .86 21 SMV040A 643 1063 .72 .70 .70 .75 22 SMV041A 248 999 .84 .84 .85 .81 .81 .77 .84 .86 .74 .66 .70 .73 .75 .81 .86 .84 .79 .72 .74 .82 23 SMV042A -76 1211 .44 .57 .92 .80 .73 .78 .83 .80 .81 .84 .85 .72 .66 .76 .81 .87 .84 .79 .76 .83 24 SMV043A -268 443 .71 .78 .90 .81 .76 .78 .73 .74 25 SMV043B -268 375 .79 .86 .89 .76 .71 .72 26 SMV044A 587 1433 .81 .90 .85 .74 .72 .81 27 SMV045A 100 968 .68 .84 .89 .79 .82 .85 .85 .76 .72 .67 .39 .56 .80 .71 .66 .72 .74 .70 .59 .63 28 SMV047A 473 1354 .49 .55 .64 .74 .88 .84 .76 .76 .80 .84 .82 Av segment correlation .71 .76 .83 .77 .72 .74 .79 .80 .78 .72 .71 .70 .73 .74 .78 .84 .82 .79 .77 .81 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 725 750 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 774 799 824 849 874 899 924 949 974 999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SMV001A 1034 1905 .68 .76 .81 .85 .88 .79 .76 .84 4 SMV007B 918 2007 .73 .68 .75 .84 .87 .83 .86 .72 .62 .76 .77 .79 .79 5 SMV008C 1111 2007 .36 .69 .88 .86 .80 6 SMV011B 1020 1956 .66 .59 .76 .78 .69 .82 .71 .67 .66 14 SMV030A 368 1160 .80 .83 .84 .91 .91 .79 .82 .83 .79 .86 .86 .80 .76 .70 .73 .81 .83 15 SMV032A 229 1278 .93 .82 .82 .92 .89 .78 .84 .91 .83 .87 .90 .84 .74 .71 .47 .42 .82 .87 .77 .78 16 SMV035A 220 1202 .88 .78 .82 .86 .72 .63 .73 .82 .86 .90 .88 .86 .79 .73 .72 .47 .60 .84 .75 17 SMV036B 513 1028 .87 .82 .84 .88 .84 .80 .85 .83 .74 .86 .57 .56 18 SMV037D 102 1193 .85 .83 .83 .86 .88 .86 .90 .88 .78 .87 .94 .83 .68 .74 .78 .78 .83 .84 19 SMV038B -93 1092 .86 .68 .71 .88 .78 .74 .88 .84 .58 .72 .92 .87 .60 .59 20 SMV039A -200 1146 .88 .79 .86 .90 .74 .73 .84 .73 .69 .82 .85 .82 .70 .73 .79 .61 21 SMV040A 643 1063 .77 .73 .61 .71 .87 .83 .81 .69 .64 .74 .72 .25B .16B 22 SMV041A 248 999 .80 .78 .74 .73 .71 .61 .58 .37 .43 .67 23 SMV042A -76 1211 .87 .81 .80 .88 .76 .74 .89 .76 .72 .88 .88 .83 .70 .71 .71 .67 .76 .81 .80 26 SMV044A 587 1433 .83 .76 .76 .83 .81 .84 .87 .77 .70 .83 .79 .61 .50 .52 .77 .76 .48 .50 .67 .74 27 SMV045A 100 968 .81 .79 .77 .78 .77 .69 .75 .78 .77 28 SMV047A 473 1354 .82 .78 .82 .90 .89 .70 .76 .77 .70 .81 .75 .69 .63 .65 .82 .86 .89 .75 .58 .59 29 SMV050A 924 1505 .65 .66 .79 .85 .84 .63 .48 .52 .78 .87 .78 .74 .70 30 SMV053A 1125 1664 .44 .36 .43 .33 Av segment correlation .84 .78 .78 .85 .81 .75 .81 .76 .70 .81 .83 .74 .64 .69 .72 .67 .74 .74 .71 .69 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SMV001A 1034 1905 .87 .80 .73 .74 .81 .83 .57 .59 .78 .80 .78 .78 .82 .82 .86 .86 .85 .66 .51 .74 2 SMV005A 1260 2007 .70 .72 .79 .86 .91 .81 .77 .81 .81 .88 .88 .89 .84 .83 .74 .73 .86 .88 .84 3 SMV006B 1339 2007 .76 .81 .83 .85 .82 .78 .88 .83 .77 .77 .67 .69 .85 .88 .82 .81 4 SMV007B 918 2007 .79 .77 .70 .59 .62 .75 .75 .79 .80 .86 .86 .80 .69 .50 .47 .64 .59 .54 .62 .76 5 SMV008C 1111 2007 .82 .78 .74 .77 .83 .91 .86 .83 .87 .87 .94 .93 .85 .84 .82 .83 .91 .93 .84 .85 6 SMV011B 1020 1956 .66 .69 .73 .76 .73 .81 .73 .53 .35 -.15B .39 .77 .71 .73 .70 .78 .80 .79 .76 .71 8 SMV021B 1368 2009 .79 .80 .86 .79 .74 .90 .81 .72 .80 .80 .81 .83 .84 .86 .87 9 SMV021C 1364 2009 .75 .76 .90 .87 .84 .86 .81 .83 .87 .72 .68 .83 .83 .79 .79 10 SMV023A 1244 2009 .74 .74 .74 .80 .81 .66 .39 .60 .79 .78 .85 .87 .89 .66 .46 .65 .77 .85 .80 .84 11 SMV024A 1410 2009 .88 .81 .75 .92 .91 .89 .89 .82 .75 .82 .90 .87 .82 12 SMV025A 1540 2009 .83 .79 .68 .75 .72 .67 .76 .82 13 SMV027C 1320 2009 .77 .78 .85 .74 .71 .75 .66 .66 .63 .52 .56 .44 .56 .84 .78 .45 .20B 15 SMV032A 229 1278 .61 .59 26 SMV044A 587 1433 .72 .71 .71 .75 .73 .72 .72 .67 28 SMV047A 473 1354 .78 .79 .66 .67 .67 29 SMV050A 924 1505 .52 .50 .66 .79 .83 .82 .39 .27B .51 .61 .53 30 SMV053A 1125 1664 .58 .72 .64 .57 .69 .85 .86 .86 .83 .75 .78 .77 .77 .74 .66 .73 .71 Av segment correlation .71 .71 .70 .73 .76 .80 .71 .72 .75 .70 .79 .82 .78 .75 .69 .73 .79 .79 .75 .75 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SMV001A 1034 1905 .77 .70 .74 .77 .85 .84 .71 2 SMV005A 1260 2007 .66 .60 .75 .76 .76 .78 .83 .82 .74 .82 .83 3 SMV006B 1339 2007 .70 .56 .59 .62 .77 .90 .84 .81 .81 .74 .72 4 SMV007B 918 2007 .80 .69 .54 .44 .57 .64 .78 .84 .65 .64 .66 5 SMV008C 1111 2007 .89 .81 .80 .73 .80 .88 .91 .86 .73 .79 .82 6 SMV011B 1020 1956 .68 .65 .67 .67 .69 .65 .55 .61 .61 7 SMV013B 1776 2007 .58 .44 .57 .65 .71 .53 .38 .53 .63 8 SMV021B 1368 2009 .85 .72 .71 .83 .86 .83 .88 .92 .81 .84 .87 9 SMV021C 1364 2009 .80 .80 .69 .61 .76 .82 .92 .89 .77 .75 .77 10 SMV023A 1244 2009 .91 .80 .66 .68 .85 .85 .89 .92 .80 .79 .72 11 SMV024A 1410 2009 .83 .84 .78 .65 .74 .83 .91 .90 .81 .83 .86 12 SMV025A 1540 2009 .84 .72 .67 .69 .66 .73 .77 .75 .69 .70 .75 13 SMV027C 1320 2009 .38 .67 .68 .70 .73 .72 .77 .71 .59 .71 .77 Av segment correlation .76 .71 .68 .66 .74 .78 .80 .80 .70 .74 .76 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Summitville 10:35 Wed 28 Feb 2018 Page 19 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 SMV001A 1034 1905 872 35 0 .755 .31 1.10 .153 .536 .432 2.64 .392 -.025 2 2 SMV005A 1260 2007 748 30 0 .786 .39 1.27 .221 .642 .450 2.39 .217 -.010 2 3 SMV006B 1339 2007 669 27 0 .777 .27 .84 .143 .611 .430 2.59 .348 -.032 2 4 SMV007B 918 2007 1090 44 0 .704 .35 1.15 .180 .704 .338 2.63 .304 -.017 2 5 SMV008C 1111 2007 897 36 0 .818 .26 .83 .139 .524 .460 2.60 .387 -.020 2 6 SMV011B 1020 1956 937 38 1 .658 .24 .90 .143 .555 .480 2.78 .325 -.004 9 7 SMV013B 1776 2007 232 9 0 .579 .87 1.51 .231 .668 .178 2.64 .442 -.006 1 8 SMV021B 1368 2009 642 26 0 .822 .23 .70 .101 .618 .334 2.50 .323 -.028 3 9 SMV021C 1364 2009 646 26 0 .802 .37 1.00 .167 .502 .377 2.57 .371 -.021 2 10 SMV023A 1244 2009 766 31 0 .765 .21 .53 .096 .498 .398 2.56 .324 -.004 2 11 SMV024A 1410 2009 600 24 0 .840 .37 .79 .146 .413 .358 2.57 .316 -.027 2 12 SMV025A 1540 2009 470 19 0 .736 .27 .69 .124 .654 .336 2.59 .394 -.023 2 13 SMV027C 1320 2009 690 28 1 .642 .21 .76 .140 .779 .412 2.59 .323 -.006 2 14 SMV030A 368 1160 793 32 0 .777 .37 1.34 .198 .632 .425 2.53 .300 -.028 9 15 SMV032A 229 1278 1050 42 0 .776 .30 1.38 .226 .811 .378 2.54 .357 -.032 2 16 SMV035A 220 1202 983 40 0 .761 .24 1.44 .170 .738 .427 2.64 .346 -.041 2 17 SMV036B 513 1028 516 21 0 .739 .31 1.30 .159 .580 .413 2.58 .345 -.042 1 18 SMV037D 102 1193 1092 43 0 .806 .43 1.24 .233 .647 .417 2.59 .395 -.041 9 19 SMV038B -93 1092 1186 47 0 .755 .39 1.38 .174 .606 .347 2.56 .342 -.007 1 20 SMV039A -200 1146 1347 53 1 .749 .33 1.05 .173 .587 .401 2.76 .390 -.005 2 21 SMV040A 643 1063 421 17 2 .699 .27 1.06 .173 .729 .432 2.44 .278 -.006 1 22 SMV041A 248 999 752 30 0 .726 .48 1.76 .262 .654 .402 2.64 .359 -.038 2 23 SMV042A -76 1211 1288 52 0 .775 .28 .96 .157 .685 .409 2.65 .340 -.028 2 24 SMV043A -268 443 712 28 0 .782 .49 1.49 .279 .607 .451 2.69 .366 -.030 2 25 SMV043B -268 375 644 26 0 .813 .50 1.79 .322 .679 .467 2.68 .386 -.016 2 26 SMV044A 587 1433 847 34 0 .748 .36 1.42 .192 .566 .468 2.52 .362 -.019 9 27 SMV045A 100 968 869 34 0 .736 .21 .53 .096 .597 .345 2.64 .358 -.015 2 28 SMV047A 473 1354 882 36 0 .738 .38 .88 .138 .545 .285 2.55 .333 -.030 3 29 SMV050A 924 1505 582 24 1 .668 .28 1.32 .229 .819 .416 2.59 .336 -.013 2 30 SMV053A 1125 1664 540 21 0 .685 .37 .98 .195 .641 .394 2.65 .389 -.043 2 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 23763 953 6 .753 .33 1.79 .177 .628 .400 2.78 .348 -.022