[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run VJR1 Program COF 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25208 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS File of DATED series: vjrii.tu_ CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1233 to 1831 599 years Continuous time span is 1233 to 1831 599 years Portion with two or more series is 1233 to 1815 583 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 14 *C* *O* Master series 1233 1831 599 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 2814 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 2798 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .490 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .169 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 12 *A* *** Mean length of series 201.0 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . <====================> . . . . . . . . OLC0202A 1 1442 1654 213 . . . . . . . . .<===============> . . . . . . . . . OLC0202B 2 1462 1629 168 . . . . <==========>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OLC0208A 3 1233 1341 109 . . . . <==========>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OLC0208B 4 1233 1348 116 . . . . . . . . <====================> . . . . . . . . OLC0212A 5 1455 1660 206 . . . . . . . . .<===================> . . . . . . . . OLC0212B 6 1463 1661 199 . . . . . . . . . <======================> . . . . . . . OLC0218A 7 1497 1722 226 . . . . .<===============================> . . . . . . . . . . OLC0219A 8 1267 1581 315 . . . . .<=========================> . . . . . . . . . . . OLC0219B 9 1266 1520 255 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================> . . . . . OLC0220A 10 1652 1831 180 . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . . . . . OLC0220B 11 1653 1815 163 . . . . . . . . <====================> . . . . . . . . . OLC0223B 12 1427 1630 204 . . . . . . . . . . <========================> . . . . . . OLC0226A 13 1536 1780 245 . . . . . . . . . . <=====================> . . . . . . OLC0226B 14 1537 1751 215 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1250 -.598 2 1300 .776 4 1350 -.875 2 1400 1.506 2 1450 -.152 4 1251 1.218 2 1301 1.040 4 1351 -1.238 2 1401 -1.003 2 1451 1.854 4 1252 -.306 2 1302 .166 4 1352 -.552 2 1402 -.314 2 1452 .987 4 1253 .930 2 1303 1.642 4 1353 .223 2 1403 -1.096 2 1453 .714 4 1254 -.801 2 1304 -.835 4 1354 1.367 2 1404 .532 2 1454 .538 4 1255 .657 2 1305 -1.111 4 1355 1.802 2 1405 .469 2 1455 -.282 5 1256 1.087 2 1306 .906 4 1356 1.697 2 1406 -.470 2 1456 .234 5 1257 2.304 2 1307 .283 4 1357 1.618 2 1407 .108 2 1457 -.281 5 1258 .202 2 1308 .093 4 1358 1.017 2 1408 -2.567 2 1458 -.054 5 1259 .877 2 1309 -1.759 4 1359 .758 2 1409 -.355 2 1459 -.506 5 1260 -.212 2 1310 -1.464 4 1360 -.932 2 1410 .708 2 1460 .123 5 1261 -1.912 2 1311 -.848 4 1361 -.180 2 1411 -.211 2 1461 .738 5 1262 -.763 2 1312 -.581 4 1362 .785 2 1412 .943 2 1462 1.598 6 1263 -1.717 2 1313 .589 4 1363 1.429 2 1413 .660 2 1463 .842 7 1264 -.976 2 1314 .312 4 1364 .170 2 1414 -.317 2 1464 -.982 7 1265 1.210 2 1315 .811 4 1365 -.774 2 1415 -1.436 2 1465 -.671 7 1266 .288 3 1316 .022 4 1366 -1.712 2 1416 .216 2 1466 -1.999 7 1267 -.479 4 1317 .418 4 1367 -.901 2 1417 2.444 2 1467 -.883 7 1268 -.672 4 1318 1.265 4 1368 -.211 2 1418 .153 2 1468 .244 7 1269 1.462 4 1319 1.581 4 1369 -1.647 2 1419 -.023 2 1469 .678 7 1270 .734 4 1320 .069 4 1370 -.653 2 1420 .895 2 1470 .085 7 1271 1.502 4 1321 .296 4 1371 -.803 2 1421 1.359 2 1471 -.290 7 1272 .788 4 1322 -.263 4 1372 -2.507 2 1422 -.057 2 1472 -1.047 7 1273 1.405 4 1323 1.913 4 1373 -.641 2 1423 .380 2 1473 -.104 7 1274 -.518 4 1324 1.064 4 1374 .470 2 1424 .492 2 1474 .456 7 1275 .529 4 1325 .436 4 1375 -.544 2 1425 -.977 2 1475 -.453 7 1276 -.513 4 1326 -.269 4 1376 .798 2 1426 -1.066 2 1476 -.027 7 1277 -.925 4 1327 -.894 4 1377 -.135 2 1427 -.705 3 1477 .997 7 1278 -.522 4 1328 -2.934 4 1378 1.679 2 1428 -.451 3 1478 1.068 7 1279 -.419 4 1329 -.756 4 1379 -.525 2 1429 -.728 3 1479 -2.908 7 1280 .019 4 1330 -.606 4 1380 .045 2 1430 -.234 3 1480 -.419 7 1281 1.041 4 1331 -.392 4 1381 1.157 2 1431 .232 3 1481 -.488 7 1282 -1.561 4 1332 -.573 4 1382 1.611 2 1432 -.398 3 1482 -.199 7 1233 -1.068 2 1283 -1.319 4 1333 -1.513 4 1383 1.273 2 1433 1.562 3 1483 -1.226 7 1234 -1.378 2 1284 .371 4 1334 .735 4 1384 1.218 2 1434 2.174 3 1484 -.271 7 1235 -.034 2 1285 -1.082 4 1335 .801 4 1385 1.092 2 1435 1.225 3 1485 -.161 7 1236 -.566 2 1286 -2.376 4 1336 .206 4 1386 1.014 2 1436 .447 3 1486 1.048 7 1237 .838 2 1287 .635 4 1337 1.830 4 1387 1.245 2 1437 -.228 3 1487 .785 7 1238 .281 2 1288 -1.542 4 1338 -1.269 4 1388 -.060 2 1438 -.861 3 1488 .241 7 1239 1.273 2 1289 .094 4 1339 .192 4 1389 .869 2 1439 -.022 3 1489 .927 7 1240 1.863 2 1290 -.791 4 1340 -1.400 4 1390 -.238 2 1440 -.487 3 1490 -.402 7 1241 .576 2 1291 -.307 4 1341 1.015 4 1391 -1.403 2 1441 -.911 3 1491 1.132 7 1242 .024 2 1292 -1.523 4 1342 -.408 3 1392 -1.115 2 1442 -1.276 4 1492 1.321 7 1243 -.396 2 1293 -.020 4 1343 .251 3 1393 .577 2 1443 -.320 4 1493 .268 7 1244 -.889 2 1294 -1.392 4 1344 1.177 3 1394 .201 2 1444 -.794 4 1494 .625 7 1245 1.412 2 1295 .725 4 1345 1.719 3 1395 -1.446 2 1445 -.311 4 1495 1.181 7 1246 -1.876 2 1296 1.340 4 1346 .986 3 1396 -.760 2 1446 -.408 4 1496 .713 7 1247 -.108 2 1297 1.284 4 1347 .129 3 1397 -3.501 2 1447 -.339 4 1497 .586 8 1248 -1.616 2 1298 .927 4 1348 -2.061 3 1398 -1.948 2 1448 -.274 4 1498 .873 8 1249 -.023 2 1299 1.426 4 1349 -1.168 2 1399 -.620 2 1449 .474 4 1499 -1.001 8 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1500 -1.628 8 1550 -.775 9 1600 .143 8 1650 -.112 6 1700 -.324 5 1750 -.498 4 1501 -1.238 8 1551 -.680 9 1601 -1.329 8 1651 .589 6 1701 -.040 5 1751 -.135 4 1502 -1.809 8 1552 -.738 9 1602 .752 8 1652 -.590 7 1702 .533 5 1752 1.259 3 1503 -1.452 8 1553 -.785 9 1603 -1.178 8 1653 .444 8 1703 1.229 5 1753 1.404 3 1504 -.377 8 1554 -.671 9 1604 .236 8 1654 .077 8 1704 1.065 5 1754 1.926 3 1505 .035 8 1555 -.080 9 1605 -1.172 8 1655 .626 7 1705 .455 5 1755 .829 3 1506 .640 8 1556 -.037 9 1606 -.164 8 1656 1.115 7 1706 -.085 5 1756 .896 3 1507 .696 8 1557 -.215 9 1607 -.093 8 1657 1.547 7 1707 -.479 5 1757 1.957 3 1508 1.297 8 1558 .920 9 1608 -.784 8 1658 .862 7 1708 -1.401 5 1758 .906 3 1509 .395 8 1559 1.422 9 1609 -.924 8 1659 -.375 7 1709 -2.512 5 1759 1.712 3 1510 .323 8 1560 1.803 9 1610 .283 8 1660 -.396 7 1710 -1.633 5 1760 .468 3 1511 1.054 8 1561 1.515 9 1611 .998 8 1661 .210 6 1711 -.739 5 1761 -.198 3 1512 1.696 8 1562 .919 9 1612 .798 8 1662 .007 5 1712 -.983 5 1762 .073 3 1513 .396 8 1563 -.772 9 1613 -.575 8 1663 .323 5 1713 .319 5 1763 -.354 3 1514 -.254 8 1564 -.828 9 1614 -.053 8 1664 .440 5 1714 -.031 5 1764 -.730 3 1515 -.901 8 1565 -1.122 9 1615 -.274 8 1665 .470 5 1715 1.301 5 1765 -.803 3 1516 -1.262 8 1566 -.315 9 1616 1.137 8 1666 1.248 5 1716 1.308 5 1766 -1.846 3 1517 -.505 8 1567 .046 9 1617 1.818 8 1667 -.082 5 1717 .334 5 1767 -1.006 3 1518 -.188 8 1568 .137 9 1618 1.229 8 1668 .377 5 1718 .570 5 1768 -1.454 3 1519 -.593 8 1569 -.233 9 1619 .112 8 1669 -1.147 5 1719 .647 5 1769 -.820 3 1520 .207 8 1570 .765 9 1620 .645 8 1670 -2.055 5 1720 .966 5 1770 -.737 3 1521 .864 7 1571 .583 9 1621 .109 8 1671 -2.160 5 1721 .438 5 1771 -1.948 3 1522 1.096 7 1572 .441 9 1622 -1.112 8 1672 -1.399 5 1722 -.239 5 1772 .003 3 1523 .966 7 1573 .114 9 1623 -.120 8 1673 -.266 5 1723 -.920 4 1773 .002 3 1524 -.044 7 1574 .446 9 1624 -1.157 8 1674 -.895 5 1724 -.367 4 1774 -.370 3 1525 -.357 7 1575 -.440 9 1625 -.784 8 1675 -1.294 5 1725 .246 4 1775 .100 3 1526 -.300 7 1576 -.061 9 1626 -.242 8 1676 -.742 5 1726 -.966 4 1776 .562 3 1527 -1.800 7 1577 .883 9 1627 .203 8 1677 -.853 5 1727 -.558 4 1777 1.674 3 1528 -.122 7 1578 .905 9 1628 -.107 8 1678 -.894 5 1728 .256 4 1778 1.428 3 1529 -.770 7 1579 -.125 9 1629 .337 8 1679 -1.334 5 1729 -.921 4 1779 .193 3 1530 -.898 7 1580 -1.428 9 1630 1.108 7 1680 -.433 5 1730 -.057 4 1780 1.002 3 1531 -.986 7 1581 .245 9 1631 -.777 6 1681 1.266 5 1731 .112 4 1781 1.478 2 1532 -.727 7 1582 -1.666 8 1632 -.773 6 1682 .427 5 1732 .962 4 1782 .336 2 1533 -.850 7 1583 -.437 8 1633 -.894 6 1683 .384 5 1733 1.321 4 1783 .003 2 1534 .553 7 1584 -.034 8 1634 .568 6 1684 1.001 5 1734 1.182 4 1784 -.251 2 1535 1.747 7 1585 .901 8 1635 .801 6 1685 1.096 5 1735 -.388 4 1785 -1.122 2 1536 1.297 8 1586 -1.042 8 1636 .456 6 1686 1.634 5 1736 -.208 4 1786 -1.790 2 1537 1.313 9 1587 -.217 8 1637 1.534 6 1687 .593 5 1737 -.355 4 1787 -1.091 2 1538 .310 9 1588 .295 8 1638 1.423 6 1688 -.054 5 1738 1.618 4 1788 -.559 2 1539 1.057 9 1589 -1.239 8 1639 .304 6 1689 -.507 5 1739 .963 4 1789 -1.187 2 1540 -.118 9 1590 -.452 8 1640 .658 6 1690 -.130 5 1740 -1.493 4 1790 -1.012 2 1541 .425 9 1591 -.800 8 1641 .615 6 1691 .999 5 1741 -.546 4 1791 -1.553 2 1542 -.194 9 1592 .952 8 1642 .271 6 1692 .604 5 1742 .034 4 1792 -1.914 2 1543 .329 9 1593 .247 8 1643 -.143 6 1693 .491 5 1743 -.867 4 1793 .648 2 1544 -.210 9 1594 1.010 8 1644 -2.901 6 1694 2.110 5 1744 -.352 4 1794 .916 2 1545 -.259 9 1595 1.565 8 1645 -1.709 6 1695 .643 5 1745 -2.041 4 1795 .871 2 1546 .111 9 1596 .363 8 1646 -1.138 6 1696 -.267 5 1746 -.904 4 1796 .807 2 1547 -.356 9 1597 -.302 8 1647 -1.075 6 1697 -.909 5 1747 .106 4 1797 .034 2 1548 -1.140 9 1598 .031 8 1648 .059 6 1698 -1.042 5 1748 .782 4 1798 1.184 2 1549 -1.480 9 1599 .178 8 1649 .199 6 1699 -1.086 5 1749 .006 4 1799 2.793 2 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1800 .496 2 1801 -.203 2 1802 -.400 2 1803 -1.924 2 1804 -.370 2 1805 1.411 2 1806 -.149 2 1807 -.478 2 1808 -1.041 2 1809 2.019 2 1810 .574 2 1811 -.440 2 1812 -1.031 2 1813 1.537 2 1814 -1.223 2 1815 -.001 2 1816 -2.040 1 1817 -1.162 1 1818 1.331 1 1819 1.330 1 1820 .252 1 1821 2.113 1 1822 1.089 1 1823 .171 1 1824 .765 1 1825 .942 1 1826 1.490 1 1827 .984 1 1828 -1.280 1 1829 -1.232 1 1830 -1.498 1 1831 -.853 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1250---b 1300--------C 1350--d 1400----------F 1450----a 1500g 1550--c 1251---------E 1301---------D 1351-e 1401-d 1451----------G 1501-e 1551--c 1252----a 1302------A 1352---b 1402----a 1452--------D 1502g 1552--c 1253--------D 1303----------G 1353------A 1403-d 1453--------C 1503f 1553--c 1254--c 1304--c 1354---------E 1404-------B 1454-------B 1504---b 1554--c 1255-------C 1305-d 1355----------G 1405-------B 1455----a 1505-----@ 1555-----@ 1256---------D 1306--------D 1356----------G 1406---b 1456------A 1506-------C 1556-----@ 1257----------I 1307------A 1357----------F 1407-----@ 1457----a 1507-------C 1557----a 1258------A 1308-----@ 1358---------D 1408j 1458-----@ 1508---------E 1558--------D 1259--------D 1309g 1359--------C 1409---a 1459---b 1509-------B 1559----------F 1260----a 1310f 1360--d 1410--------C 1460------@ 1510------A 1560----------G 1261h 1311--c 1361----a 1411----a 1461--------C 1511---------D 1561----------F 1262--c 1312---b 1362--------C 1412--------D 1462----------F 1512----------G 1562--------D 1263g 1313-------B 1363----------F 1413-------C 1463--------C 1513-------B 1563--c 1264-d 1314------A 1364------A 1414----a 1464-d 1514----a 1564--c 1265---------E 1315--------C 1365--c 1415f 1465--c 1515--d 1565-d 1266------A 1316-----@ 1366g 1416------A 1466h 1516-e 1566----a 1267---b 1317-------B 1367--d 1417----------J 1467--d 1517---b 1567-----@ 1268--c 1318---------E 1368----a 1418------A 1468------A 1518----a 1568------A 1269----------F 1319----------F 1369g 1419-----@ 1469-------C 1519---b 1569----a 1270--------C 1320-----@ 1370--c 1420--------D 1470-----@ 1520------A 1570--------C 1271----------F 1321------A 1371--c 1421---------E 1471----a 1521--------C 1571-------B 1272--------C 1322----a 1372j 1422-----@ 1472-d 1522---------D 1572-------B 1273----------F 1323----------H 1373--c 1423------B 1473-----@ 1523--------D 1573------@ 1274---b 1324---------D 1374-------B 1424-------B 1474-------B 1524-----@ 1574-------B 1275-------B 1325-------B 1375---b 1425-d 1475---b 1525---a 1575---b 1276---b 1326----a 1376--------C 1426-d 1476-----@ 1526----a 1576-----@ 1277--d 1327--d 1377----a 1427--c 1477--------D 1527g 1577--------D 1278---b 1328l 1378----------G 1428---b 1478---------D 1528-----@ 1578--------D 1279---b 1329--c 1379---b 1429--c 1479l 1529--c 1579-----a 1280-----@ 1330---b 1380-----@ 1430----a 1480---b 1530--d 1580f 1281---------D 1331---b 1381---------E 1431------A 1481---b 1531-d 1581------A 1282f 1332---b 1382----------F 1432---b 1482----a 1532--c 1582g 1233-d 1283-e 1333f 1383---------E 1433----------F 1483-e 1533--c 1583---b 1234-f 1284------A 1334--------C 1384---------E 1434----------I 1484----a 1534-------B 1584-----@ 1235-----@ 1285-d 1335--------C 1385---------D 1435---------E 1485----a 1535----------G 1585--------D 1236---b 1286j 1336------A 1386---------D 1436-------B 1486---------D 1536---------E 1586-d 1237--------C 1287-------C 1337----------G 1387---------E 1437----a 1487--------C 1537---------E 1587----a 1238------A 1288f 1338-e 1388-----@ 1438--c 1488------A 1538------A 1588------A 1239---------E 1289-----@ 1339------A 1389--------C 1439-----@ 1489--------D 1539---------D 1589-e 1240----------G 1290--c 1340f 1390----a 1440---b 1490---b 1540-----@ 1590---b 1241-------B 1291----a 1341---------D 1391f 1441--d 1491---------E 1541-------B 1591--c 1242-----@ 1292f 1342---b 1392-d 1442-e 1492---------E 1542----a 1592--------D 1243---b 1293-----@ 1343------A 1393-------B 1443----a 1493------A 1543------A 1593------A 1244--d 1294-f 1344---------E 1394------A 1444--c 1494-------B 1544----a 1594---------D 1245----------F 1295--------C 1345----------G 1395f 1445----a 1495---------E 1545----a 1595----------F 1246h 1296---------E 1346--------D 1396--c 1446---b 1496--------C 1546-----@ 1596------A 1247-----@ 1297---------E 1347------A 1397n 1447----a 1497-------B 1547---a 1597----a 1248f 1298--------D 1348h 1398h 1448----a 1498--------C 1548-e 1598-----@ 1249-----@ 1299----------F 1349-e 1399--b 1449-------B 1499-d 1549f 1599------A PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600------A 1650-----@ 1700----a 1750---b 1800-------B 1601-e 1651-------B 1701-----@ 1751----a 1801----a 1602--------C 1652---b 1702-------B 1752---------E 1802---b 1603-e 1653-------B 1703---------E 1753----------F 1803h 1604------A 1654-----@ 1704---------D 1754----------H 1804---a 1605-e 1655-------C 1705-------B 1755--------C 1805----------F 1606----a 1656---------D 1706-----@ 1756--------D 1806----a 1607-----@ 1657----------F 1707---b 1757----------H 1807---b 1608--c 1658--------C 1708f 1758--------D 1808-d 1609--d 1659---a 1709j 1759----------G 1809----------H 1610------A 1660---b 1710g 1760-------B 1810-------B 1611--------D 1661------A 1711--c 1761----a 1811---b 1612--------C 1662-----@ 1712-d 1762-----@ 1812-d 1613---b 1663------A 1713------A 1763---a 1813----------F 1614-----@ 1664-------B 1714-----@ 1764--c 1814-e 1615----a 1665-------B 1715---------E 1765--c 1815-----@ 1616---------E 1666---------E 1716---------E 1766g 1816h 1617----------G 1667-----@ 1717------A 1767-d 1817-e 1618---------E 1668------B 1718-------B 1768f 1818---------E 1619------@ 1669-e 1719-------C 1769--c 1819---------E 1620-------C 1670h 1720--------D 1770--c 1820------A 1621-----@ 1671i 1721-------B 1771h 1821----------H 1622-d 1672-f 1722----a 1772-----@ 1822---------D 1623-----@ 1673----a 1723--d 1773-----@ 1823------A 1624-e 1674--d 1724---a 1774---a 1824--------C 1625--c 1675-e 1725------A 1775-----@ 1825--------D 1626----a 1676--c 1726-d 1776-------B 1826----------F 1627------A 1677--c 1727---b 1777----------G 1827--------D 1628-----@ 1678--d 1728------A 1778----------F 1828-e 1629------A 1679-e 1729--d 1779------A 1829-e 1630---------D 1680---b 1730-----@ 1780---------D 1830f 1631--c 1681---------E 1731------@ 1781----------F 1831--c 1632--c 1682-------B 1732--------D 1782------A 1633--d 1683------B 1733---------E 1783-----@ 1634-------B 1684---------D 1734---------E 1784----a 1635--------C 1685---------D 1735---b 1785-d 1636-------B 1686----------G 1736----a 1786g 1637----------F 1687-------B 1737---a 1787-d 1638----------F 1688-----@ 1738----------F 1788---b 1639------A 1689---b 1739--------D 1789-e 1640-------C 1690----a 1740f 1790-d 1641-------B 1691--------D 1741---b 1791f 1642------A 1692-------B 1742-----@ 1792h 1643----a 1693-------B 1743--c 1793-------C 1644l 1694----------H 1744---a 1794--------D 1645g 1695-------C 1745h 1795--------C 1646-e 1696----a 1746--d 1796--------C 1647-d 1697--d 1747-----@ 1797-----@ 1648-----@ 1698-d 1748--------C 1798---------E 1649------A 1699-d 1749-----@ 1799----------K PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 OLC0202A 1442 1654 .60 .68 .87 .69 .55 .65 .61 .53 .43 2 OLC0202B 1462 1629 .73 .77 .79 .75 .64 .39 .39 3 OLC0208A 1233 1341 .52 .75 .58 .64 4 OLC0208B 1233 1348 .52 .67 .37 .42 5 OLC0212A 1455 1660 .82 .86 .65 .53 .39 .44 .60 .51 6 OLC0212B 1463 1661 .80 .88 .75 .62 .52 .47 .54 .51 7 OLC0218A 1497 1722 .44 .46 .41 .48 .55 .54 .38 .34 .17B 8 OLC0219A 1267 1581 .72 .72 .67 .71 .48 .38 .38 .27B .14B .15B .43 .45 .40 9 OLC0219B 1266 1520 .69 .72 .65 .64 .48 .38 .42 .28B-.05B-.02B 10 OLC0220A 1652 1831 .57 .56 .38 11 OLC0220B 1653 1815 .44 .42 .27A 12 OLC0223B 1427 1630 .32B .37 .43 .47 .40 .39 .49 .46 13 OLC0226A 1536 1780 .29A .50 .63 .66 .65 .73 .51B .27A 14 OLC0226B 1537 1751 .40 .43 .55 .58 .63 .73 .59 .40 Av segment correlation .52 .71 .60 .59 .67 .48 .38 .40 .37 .50 .55 .61 .49 .49 .52 .54 .52 .56 .45 .33 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1725 1750 1775 1774 1799 1824 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 OLC0220A 1652 1831 .43 .62 .57 11 OLC0220B 1653 1815 .38 .71 .55 13 OLC0226A 1536 1780 .36 .40 14 OLC0226B 1537 1751 .38 Av segment correlation .39 .58 .56 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== OLC0202A 1442 to 1654 213 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .596) is: Lower 1548> -.012 1452< -.011 1449< -.011 1450> -.010 1654> -.010 1608> -.009 Higher 1479 .067 1644 .007 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1456 +3.3 SD; 1548 +3.0 SD; 1608 +3.1 SD; 1654 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0202B 1462 to 1629 168 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .612) is: Lower 1608> -.026 1603> -.012 1624> -.012 1580> -.010 1602< -.010 1613> -.010 Higher 1479 .066 1582 .008 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1479 1480 5.2 SD [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1479-10.2 SD; 1608 +4.7 SD; 1609 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0208A 1233 to 1341 109 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .587) is: Lower 1233> -.060 1309< -.036 1242< -.012 1239> -.007 1300< -.005 1304> -.005 Higher 1328 .029 1286 .015 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1233 +4.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0208B 1233 to 1348 116 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .472) is: Lower 1308< -.043 1233< -.042 1309> -.023 1304> -.023 1348> -.022 1285> -.014 Higher 1328 .035 1282 .022 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1242 +3.3 SD; 1285 +3.6 SD; 1304 +3.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0212A 1455 to 1660 206 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .606) is: Lower 1589> -.027 1655< -.017 1472> -.011 1577< -.010 1548> -.008 1609> -.008 Higher 1479 .070 1582 .007 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1589 +4.2 SD; 1655 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0212B 1463 to 1661 199 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .625) is: Lower 1609< -.010 1605> -.009 1656< -.009 1655< -.008 1584< -.006 1466> -.006 Higher 1479 .069 1644 .014 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1605 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0218A 1497 to 1722 226 years Series 7 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1673 1722 2 -.15 .01 .09 .15 -.10 -.05 -.06 .03 -.11 -.03 .17| .18 .27* .14 .00 .12 -.24 -.21 .10 -.09 .10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .402) is: Lower 1704< -.054 1640< -.023 1722> -.011 1533> -.009 1659> -.008 1590> -.007 Higher 1644 .044 1589 .013 1673 to 1722 segment: Lower 1704< -.245 1722> -.042 1698> -.028 1697> -.018 1699> -.011 1673> -.011 Higher 1709 .096 1694 .062 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1533 +3.6 SD; 1534 +3.4 SD; 1590 +3.3 SD; 1673 +3.1 SD; 1698 +3.7 SD; 1699 +3.3 SD; 1704 -6.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0219A 1267 to 1581 315 years Series 8 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1425 1474 -1 .06 -.07 -.19 .10 .13 -.23 .05 -.15 .09 .31* .27| .05 .01 -.29 -.02 -.17 -.05 .16 .10 .11 -.08 1450 1499 9 -.29 .15 -.12 .08 .09 .02 .05 .05 .02 .16 .14|-.20 -.19 .03 -.11 -.18 -.09 .07 .13 .22*-.02 1475 1524 3 -.09 .15 -.09 -.01 -.05 .01 .01 .08 -.07 .06 .15|-.15 -.09 .20*-.13 -.14 -.03 -.17 -.15 -.03 -.08 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .445) is: Lower 1479> -.034 1397< -.014 1456< -.014 1418> -.011 1490< -.010 1389> -.007 Higher 1348 .010 1408 .010 1425 to 1474 segment: Lower 1456< -.117 1441> -.034 1448< -.027 1468< -.025 1444> -.015 1464> -.014 Higher 1451 .055 1434 .051 1450 to 1499 segment: Lower 1479> -.124 1456< -.055 1468< -.013 1476< -.011 1484< -.010 1485< -.008 Higher 1451 .034 1462 .026 1475 to 1524 segment: Lower 1479> -.149 1518> -.017 1508< -.017 1476< -.011 1484< -.010 1485< -.008 Higher 1495 .015 1477 .013 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1374 +3.5 SD; 1389 +4.3 SD; 1397 -4.5 SD; 1422 +4.0 SD; 1479 +5.9 SD; 1489 +3.6 SD; 1518 +4.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0219B 1266 to 1520 255 years Series 9 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1425 1474 1 .01 -.10 .10 .13 .03 -.24 -.40 -.27 -.16 .16 .28| .32* .03 .16 .10 -.07 .15 .11 .09 -.10 -.09 1450 1499 -7 -.27 -.08 -.02 .59* .01 -.01 -.07 .08 -.03 .17 -.05| .02 -.10 .03 .02 -.19 -.05 .19 .13 -.09 .02 1471 1520 -7 -.32 -.15 -.16 .45* .01 -.01 .01 .17 .05 .28 -.02|-.02 -.05 .00 .02 -.27 -.13 .03 .07 -.05 .11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .390) is: Lower 1479> -.049 1486< -.046 1397> -.024 1463< -.011 1336< -.011 1418< -.008 Higher 1338 .011 1408 .010 1425 to 1474 segment: Lower 1463< -.092 1464> -.033 1473< -.032 1470> -.025 1428> -.023 1462< -.020 Higher 1451 .068 1434 .060 1450 to 1499 segment: Lower 1486< -.158 1479> -.147 1463< -.029 1473< -.012 1470> -.008 1480< -.006 Higher 1451 .048 1466 .039 1471 to 1520 segment: Lower 1479> -.188 1486< -.170 1505< -.016 1473< -.013 1480< -.006 1513> -.006 Higher 1500 .026 1472 .025 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1478 1479 4.6 SD [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1397 +4.5 SD; 1409 +4.1 SD; 1463 -4.8 SD; 1479 +7.3 SD; 1486 -7.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0220A 1652 to 1831 180 years Series 10 [*] Later part of series cannot be checked from 1816 to 1831 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .498) is: Lower 1729< -.026 1800< -.020 1750> -.018 1726> -.012 1802> -.011 1668< -.010 Higher 1799 .014 1809 .013 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1729 -5.0 SD; 1776 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0220B 1653 to 1815 163 years Series 11 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1749 0 -.02 .09 -.07 -.21 .03 .10 .22 -.02 -.03 .08 .27* .18 -.28 .15 -.20 -.07 -.11 -.40 -.11 .05 .12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .420) is: Lower 1726< -.061 1800> -.029 1729> -.015 1654< -.012 1801> -.009 1802< -.008 Higher 1814 .014 1809 .013 1700 to 1749 segment: Lower 1726< -.115 1729> -.048 1728< -.023 1721< -.019 1730< -.016 1704> -.014 Higher 1745 .056 1738 .041 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1725 1726 -4.1 SD [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1704 +3.1 SD; 1725 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0223B 1427 to 1630 204 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1427 1476 7 -.27 -.06 .17 -.03 .22 .03 -.15 -.20 .19 .09 .32| .05 -.05 -.02 -.19 -.20 -.26 .34*-.17 .16 -.08 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .410) is: Lower 1589> -.033 1472< -.019 1454< -.015 1479> -.013 1432> -.011 1520< -.009 Higher 1580 .015 1466 .013 1427 to 1476 segment: Lower 1454< -.053 1432> -.049 1472< -.035 1475> -.026 1437> -.024 1459> -.016 Higher 1466 .074 1451 .046 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1588 1589 4.6 SD [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1472 -5.5 SD; 1486 +3.1 SD; 1589 +4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0226A 1536 to 1780 245 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1536 1585 0 -.13 .04 -.14 .09 -.09 -.06 .15 -.11 -.12 .07 .29* .02 .17 -.07 .02 -.21 .15 .20 -.06 -.05 .08 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1675 1724 -1 .02 .08 -.11 -.23 -.11 -.19 -.11 -.03 .11 .52* .51| .20 .01 .30 -.07 -.16 -.16 -.26 -.09 -.08 .05 1700 1749 0 .13 .21 -.20 -.27 -.16 -.13 -.03 -.12 -.13 .23 .27* .09 .00 .16 .10 .05 .14 -.33 -.20 -.07 -.06 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .436) is: Lower 1572< -.019 1537< -.017 1729> -.017 1776< -.011 1726> -.011 1723< -.010 Higher 1644 .016 1589 .010 1536 to 1585 segment: Lower 1537< -.071 1572< -.056 1554> -.030 1538> -.029 1579> -.024 1565> -.020 Higher 1580 .093 1559 .023 1675 to 1724 segment: Lower 1723< -.098 1722> -.042 1713< -.034 1676> -.022 1714> -.012 1717> -.011 Higher 1694 .038 1681 .035 1700 to 1749 segment: Lower 1723< -.073 1729> -.065 1726> -.033 1713< -.022 1722> -.021 1739< -.013 Higher 1740 .082 1709 .035 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1537 1538 4.3 SD [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1537 -5.6 SD; 1554 +3.1 SD; 1571 +3.2 SD; 1729 +4.4 SD; 1776 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OLC0226B 1537 to 1751 215 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .477) is: Lower 1749> -.028 1548< -.017 1750< -.012 1726> -.010 1721> -.010 1574< -.009 Higher 1644 .019 1694 .010 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1748 1749 4.1 SD [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1548 -4.6 SD; 1575 -4.7 SD; 1721 +3.3 SD; 1749 +4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 09:53 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 OLC0202A 1442 1654 213 9 0 .596 .93 2.28 .361 .801 .168 2.52 .329 -.032 1 2 OLC0202B 1462 1629 168 7 0 .612 .88 4.90 .529 .808 .160 2.36 .224 -.054 1 3 OLC0208A 1233 1341 109 4 0 .587 1.04 2.06 .308 .733 .175 2.57 .397 -.007 3 4 OLC0208B 1233 1348 116 4 0 .472 .98 1.73 .360 .846 .165 2.61 .473 -.003 3 5 OLC0212A 1455 1660 206 8 0 .606 .86 2.18 .396 .902 .150 2.49 .302 -.024 1 6 OLC0212B 1463 1661 199 8 0 .625 .85 1.86 .310 .819 .164 2.40 .300 -.049 1 7 OLC0218A 1497 1722 226 9 1 .402 .47 1.80 .282 .927 .158 2.54 .378 -.038 2 8 OLC0219A 1267 1581 315 13 3 .445 .50 1.94 .273 .916 .154 2.65 .306 -.040 1 9 OLC0219B 1266 1520 255 10 3 .390 .40 2.07 .297 .900 .198 2.77 .429 -.016 2 10 OLC0220A 1652 1831 180 6 0 .498 .56 2.14 .347 .932 .163 2.75 .404 -.015 1 11 OLC0220B 1653 1815 163 6 1 .420 .62 3.02 .395 .913 .155 2.57 .319 -.076 1 12 OLC0223B 1427 1630 204 8 1 .410 .66 2.80 .428 .920 .185 2.66 .367 -.030 1 13 OLC0226A 1536 1780 245 10 3 .436 .83 2.09 .342 .801 .194 2.55 .313 -.044 1 14 OLC0226B 1537 1751 215 9 0 .477 .70 1.74 .350 .899 .166 2.62 .367 .003 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 2814 111 12 .490 .70 4.90 .349 .872 .169 2.77 .346 -.031 - = [ COFECHA VJR1 COF ] = -