[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run HARAK Program COF 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25832 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Harak File of DATED series: finl053.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: OKC 1 Harakkamäki Juuka 2005 Update PISY Text in file: OKC 2 Finland Scots pine -999M 6313 02919 __ 1497 1857 Text in file: OKC 3 Jouko Meriläinen, Markus Lindholm, Mauri Timonen, Taneli Kolström Time span of Master dating series is 1497 to 1857 361 years Continuous time span is 1497 to 1857 361 years Portion with two or more series is 1514 to 1855 342 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 20 *C* *O* Master series 1497 1857 361 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 3759 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 3740 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .499 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .206 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 10 *A* *** Mean length of series 187.9 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========> . . . . OKC0613A 1 1709 1828 120 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . . . . OKC0605A 2 1655 1827 173 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . . OKC0601A 3 1673 1826 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============> . . . . OKC0611A 4 1696 1824 129 . . . . . . . . . . <================================> . . . . OKC0408B 5 1497 1827 331 . . . . . . . . . . .<==============================> . . . . OKC0408A 6 1514 1829 316 . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================> . . . . OKC0404B 7 1546 1805 260 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================> . . . . OKC0396B 8 1592 1838 247 . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================> . . . . . OKC0404A 9 1546 1785 240 . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================> . . . . OKC0402B 10 1573 1803 231 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================>. . . . . OKC0402A 11 1573 1798 226 . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> . . . . OKC0396A 12 1592 1809 218 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . . . OKC0411B 13 1684 1855 172 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . . . OKC0411A 14 1688 1855 168 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . OKC0403B 15 1704 1857 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . OKC0403A 16 1704 1854 151 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========> . . . . OKC0394B 17 1694 1813 120 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========> . . . . OKC0395A 18 1709 1827 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========> . . . . OKC0395B 19 1709 1824 116 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==========> . . . . OKC0393A 20 1715 1828 114 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1500 1.422 1 1550 .440 4 1600 .744 8 1650 -.529 8 1501 .553 1 1551 -.267 4 1601 -.928 8 1651 .662 8 1502 -.141 1 1552 -.631 4 1602 .472 8 1652 -1.759 8 1503 -1.755 1 1553 -.832 4 1603 .540 8 1653 .203 8 1504 -2.361 1 1554 -1.420 4 1604 .763 8 1654 1.013 8 1505 -.422 1 1555 .441 4 1605 -.738 8 1655 1.351 9 1506 1.386 1 1556 -.195 4 1606 -1.114 8 1656 .607 9 1507 1.970 1 1557 .182 4 1607 -1.273 8 1657 1.172 9 1508 2.850 1 1558 .574 4 1608 -.762 8 1658 .336 9 1509 -.027 1 1559 1.304 4 1609 -.807 8 1659 -1.210 9 1510 .136 1 1560 1.291 4 1610 -.239 8 1660 -.756 9 1511 -1.416 1 1561 1.990 4 1611 .012 8 1661 -.557 9 1512 -2.819 1 1562 .634 4 1612 .325 8 1662 -.744 9 1513 .997 1 1563 -.034 4 1613 .057 8 1663 -.750 9 1514 1.128 2 1564 -.782 4 1614 1.079 8 1664 .623 9 1515 -.796 2 1565 -.774 4 1615 -.045 8 1665 -.173 9 1516 .906 2 1566 1.286 4 1616 1.842 8 1666 -.580 9 1517 1.562 2 1567 2.070 4 1617 1.160 8 1667 -.237 9 1518 1.965 2 1568 .573 4 1618 -.097 8 1668 .692 9 1519 1.188 2 1569 -1.448 4 1619 -.313 8 1669 -.727 9 1520 -.445 2 1570 .496 4 1620 -.076 8 1670 -.637 9 1521 .319 2 1571 -1.903 4 1621 .809 8 1671 .383 9 1522 .277 2 1572 -2.070 4 1622 -1.518 8 1672 -1.235 9 1523 .455 2 1573 .281 6 1623 .110 8 1673 .914 10 1524 .784 2 1574 .402 6 1624 -.678 8 1674 .930 10 1525 -.870 2 1575 -1.880 6 1625 -.404 8 1675 .211 10 1526 -1.393 2 1576 .047 6 1626 -.150 8 1676 -.137 10 1527 -1.405 2 1577 .522 6 1627 -.174 8 1677 -1.000 10 1528 -1.554 2 1578 1.208 6 1628 -.189 8 1678 -.982 10 1529 -2.427 2 1579 -.289 6 1629 .812 8 1679 -.890 10 1530 -1.870 2 1580 -1.396 6 1630 -1.148 8 1680 -.446 10 1531 -.108 2 1581 .386 6 1631 1.337 8 1681 1.018 10 1532 -.813 2 1582 -.224 6 1632 .444 8 1682 -.104 10 1533 -.606 2 1583 .008 6 1633 .279 8 1683 1.096 10 1534 .786 2 1584 -.888 6 1634 .134 8 1684 1.476 11 1535 2.126 2 1585 1.194 6 1635 -.417 8 1685 .038 11 1536 2.405 2 1586 .310 6 1636 -.337 8 1686 1.177 11 1537 2.479 2 1587 -.088 6 1637 -.041 8 1687 .669 11 1538 1.253 2 1588 .881 6 1638 1.272 8 1688 .352 12 1539 .718 2 1589 -1.764 6 1639 -.618 8 1689 .218 12 1540 .348 2 1590 -.669 6 1640 .792 8 1690 -.578 12 1541 .064 2 1591 -.072 6 1641 .380 8 1691 .384 12 1542 -.204 2 1592 .440 8 1642 -.152 8 1692 .008 12 1543 -.615 2 1593 -1.565 8 1643 -.575 8 1693 -.906 12 1544 -.476 2 1594 .414 8 1644 -1.995 8 1694 .406 13 1545 -1.219 2 1595 1.416 8 1645 -.589 8 1695 -.252 13 1546 -1.680 4 1596 .090 8 1646 -1.032 8 1696 -4.762 14 1497 1.620 1 1547 -.110 4 1597 -.243 8 1647 .249 8 1697 -.189 14 1498 -.850 1 1548 -.054 4 1598 .523 8 1648 2.031 8 1698 -.581 14 1499 -1.419 1 1549 -.651 4 1599 .454 8 1649 1.436 8 1699 -.140 14 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .643 14 1750 -1.292 20 1800 .831 18 1850 1.043 4 1701 1.528 14 1751 -1.704 20 1801 .645 18 1851 1.383 4 1702 1.637 14 1752 -.143 20 1802 .594 18 1852 -.167 4 1703 .723 14 1753 .359 20 1803 -.843 18 1853 -1.638 4 1704 .732 16 1754 1.215 20 1804 -.388 17 1854 .866 4 1705 .628 16 1755 1.173 20 1805 -.055 17 1855 -.265 3 1706 1.151 16 1756 .691 20 1806 -3.023 16 1856 .474 1 1707 1.052 16 1757 1.176 20 1807 -.668 16 1857 -.595 1 1708 -.005 16 1758 .975 20 1808 .001 16 1709 -.998 19 1759 .078 20 1809 .673 16 1710 -.508 19 1760 .402 20 1810 -.544 15 1711 -1.250 19 1761 -.524 20 1811 .572 15 1712 -1.669 19 1762 .966 20 1812 1.371 15 1713 -1.814 19 1763 .623 20 1813 .807 15 1714 -.028 19 1764 .323 20 1814 .097 14 1715 -.222 20 1765 1.034 20 1815 -.298 14 1716 .045 20 1766 -.946 20 1816 -.550 14 1717 .073 20 1767 -1.183 20 1817 -.114 14 1718 -.110 20 1768 .098 20 1818 -.704 14 1719 -.653 20 1769 -.052 20 1819 -.173 14 1720 .599 20 1770 -1.141 20 1820 .041 14 1721 -.570 20 1771 -2.868 20 1821 -.303 14 1722 -.105 20 1772 -.800 20 1822 -.692 14 1723 .797 20 1773 -.468 20 1823 -.660 14 1724 -.027 20 1774 .120 20 1824 -.431 14 1725 1.449 20 1775 -.300 20 1825 -.128 12 1726 .555 20 1776 -.719 20 1826 1.123 12 1727 1.312 20 1777 .579 20 1827 .548 11 1728 .120 20 1778 .869 20 1828 -.191 8 1729 .915 20 1779 .060 20 1829 1.696 6 1730 -.053 20 1780 .463 20 1830 1.150 5 1731 -.975 20 1781 -.482 20 1831 1.182 5 1732 -.440 20 1782 .483 20 1832 -.549 5 1733 .297 20 1783 1.266 20 1833 .338 5 1734 .426 20 1784 1.027 20 1834 1.066 5 1735 -.531 20 1785 .237 20 1835 -.716 5 1736 .404 20 1786 -.285 19 1836 -.559 5 1737 -.511 20 1787 .223 19 1837 -.956 5 1738 1.627 20 1788 .702 19 1838 .433 5 1739 .851 20 1789 .223 19 1839 .642 4 1740 -.617 20 1790 -2.052 19 1840 -.441 4 1741 -2.627 20 1791 -1.685 19 1841 -.428 4 1742 -.471 20 1792 -.130 19 1842 -.507 4 1743 -.437 20 1793 1.104 19 1843 -.369 4 1744 1.004 20 1794 .468 19 1844 -.809 4 1745 -.136 20 1795 -.774 19 1845 -1.001 4 1746 -.167 20 1796 -.583 19 1846 -.884 4 1747 -.131 20 1797 .183 19 1847 -.926 4 1748 .229 20 1798 .472 19 1848 .772 4 1749 -1.480 20 1799 1.941 18 1849 1.206 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1500----------F 1550-------B 1501-------B 1551----a 1502----a 1552--c 1503g 1553-c 1504i 1554f 1505---b 1555-------B 1506----------F 1556----a 1507----------H 1557------A 1508----------K 1558-------B 1509-----@ 1559---------E 1510------A 1560---------E 1511f 1561----------H 1512k 1562--------C 1513---------D 1563-----@ 1514---------E 1564--c 1515--c 1565--c 1516--------D 1566---------E 1517----------F 1567----------H 1518----------H 1568-------B 1519---------E 1569f 1520---b 1570-------B 1521------A 1571h 1522------A 1572h 1523-------B 1573------A 1524--------C 1574-------B 1525-c 1575h 1526f 1576-----@ 1527f 1577-------B 1528f 1578---------E 1529j 1579----a 1530g 1580f 1531----@ 1581-------B 1532-c 1582----a 1533--b 1583-----@ 1534--------C 1584-d 1535----------I 1585---------E 1536----------J 1586------A 1537----------J 1587-----@ 1538---------E 1588--------D 1539--------C 1589g 1540------A 1590--c 1541-----@ 1591-----@ 1542----a 1592-------B 1543--b 1593f 1544---b 1594-------B 1545-e 1595----------F 1546g 1596-----@ 1497----------F 1547----@ 1597----a 1498-c 1548-----@ 1598-------B 1499f 1549--c 1599-------B PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600--------C 1650---b 1700--------C 1750-e 1800--------C 1850---------D 1601-d 1651--------C 1701----------F 1751g 1801--------C 1851----------F 1602-------B 1652g 1702----------G 1752----a 1802-------B 1852----a 1603-------B 1653------A 1703--------C 1753------A 1803-c 1853g 1604--------C 1654---------D 1704--------C 1754---------E 1804---b 1854--------C 1605--c 1655----------E 1705--------C 1755---------E 1805-----@ 1855----a 1606-d 1656-------B 1706---------E 1756--------C 1806l 1856-------B 1607-e 1657---------E 1707---------D 1757---------E 1807--c 1857--b 1608--c 1658------A 1708-----@ 1758---------D 1808-----@ 1609--c 1659-e 1709-d 1759-----@ 1809--------C 1610----a 1660--c 1710---b 1760-------B 1810---b 1611-----@ 1661--b 1711-e 1761---b 1811-------B 1612------A 1662--c 1712g 1762---------D 1812----------E 1613-----@ 1663--c 1713g 1763--------B 1813--------C 1614---------D 1664--------B 1714-----@ 1764------A 1814-----@ 1615-----@ 1665----a 1715----a 1765---------D 1815----a 1616----------G 1666--b 1716-----@ 1766-d 1816---b 1617---------E 1667----a 1717-----@ 1767-e 1817----@ 1618----@ 1668--------C 1718----@ 1768-----@ 1818--c 1619---a 1669--c 1719--c 1769-----@ 1819----a 1620-----@ 1670--c 1720-------B 1770-e 1820-----@ 1621--------C 1671-------B 1721--b 1771k 1821----a 1622f 1672-e 1722----@ 1772--c 1822--c 1623-----@ 1673--------D 1723--------C 1773---b 1823--c 1624--c 1674--------D 1724-----@ 1774-----@ 1824---b 1625---b 1675------A 1725----------F 1775----a 1825----a 1626----a 1676----a 1726-------B 1776--c 1826---------D 1627----a 1677-d 1727---------E 1777-------B 1827-------B 1628----a 1678-d 1728-----@ 1778--------C 1828----a 1629--------C 1679-d 1729--------D 1779-----@ 1829----------G 1630-e 1680---b 1730-----@ 1780-------B 1830---------E 1631---------E 1681---------D 1731-d 1781---b 1831---------E 1632-------B 1682----@ 1732---b 1782-------B 1832---b 1633------A 1683---------D 1733------A 1783---------E 1833------A 1634-----A 1684----------F 1734-------B 1784---------D 1834---------D 1635---b 1685-----@ 1735---b 1785------A 1835--c 1636---a 1686---------E 1736-------B 1786----a 1836--b 1637-----@ 1687--------C 1737---b 1787------A 1837-d 1638---------E 1688------A 1738----------G 1788--------C 1838-------B 1639--b 1689------A 1739--------C 1789------A 1839--------C 1640--------C 1690--b 1740--b 1790h 1840---b 1641-------B 1691-------B 1741k 1791g 1841---b 1642----a 1692-----@ 1742---b 1792----a 1842---b 1643--b 1693-d 1743---b 1793---------D 1843---a 1644h 1694-------B 1744---------D 1794-------B 1844-c 1645--b 1695----a 1745----a 1795--c 1845-d 1646-d 1696s 1746----a 1796--b 1846-d 1647------A 1697----a 1747----a 1797------A 1847-d 1648----------H 1698--b 1748------A 1798-------B 1848--------C 1649----------F 1699----a 1749f 1799----------H 1849---------E PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 OKC0613A 1709 1828 .47 .62 .71 .58 .57 2 OKC0605A 1655 1827 .53 .55 .47 .55 .45 .23B .22B 3 OKC0601A 1673 1826 .59 .59 .32A .34B .68 .50 .51 4 OKC0611A 1696 1824 .57 .43 .46 .44 .49 5 OKC0408B 1497 1827 .47 .59 .33 .20B .35 .48 .59 .59 .52 .59 .51 .60 .59 6 OKC0408A 1514 1829 .53 .59 .36 .29A .46 .45 .71 .73 .42 .35 .39 .40 .44 7 OKC0404B 1546 1805 .51 .50 .50 .38 .34 .72 .72 .50 .56 .57 .48 8 OKC0396B 1592 1838 .45 .41 .35 .63 .70 .48 .46 .48 .39 .27B 9 OKC0404A 1546 1785 .55 .52 .40 .35 .48 .35 .37 .53 .46 .36 10 OKC0402B 1573 1803 .40 .41 .34 .44 .68 .64 .24B .39B .52 .48 11 OKC0402A 1573 1798 .47 .48 .42 .51 .67 .67 .34 .36B .45 12 OKC0396A 1592 1809 .38 .37 .60 .71 .68 .60 .61 .48 .58 13 OKC0411B 1684 1855 .55 .68 .66 .51 .64 .48 .49 14 OKC0411A 1688 1855 .53 .67 .60 .61 .62 .43 .36 15 OKC0403B 1704 1857 .50 .62 .75 .59 .43 .44 16 OKC0403A 1704 1854 .38 .54 .79 .63 .45 .47 17 OKC0394B 1694 1813 .46 .68 .57 .49 .67 18 OKC0395A 1709 1827 .46 .52 .51 .52 .54 19 OKC0395B 1709 1824 .61 .59 .39 .53 20 OKC0393A 1715 1828 .50 .58 .47 .60 .60 Av segment correlation .50 .56 .43 .39 .39 .45 .62 .60 .49 .52 .53 .53 .46 .44 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== OKC0613A 1709 to 1828 120 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .549) is: Lower 1808 -.029 1741 -.022 1709 -.015 1780 -.013 Higher 1790 .043 1771 .017 1749 .015 1806 .014 =================================================================================================================================== OKC0605A 1655 to 1827 173 years Series 2 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1775 1824 1 -.02 .23 -.18 -.30 -.14 .01 .07 -.03 -.15 .04 .23| .69*-.12 -.16 .15 .00 .00 -.18 -.23 -.01 -.15 1778 1827 1 -.01 .18 -.18 -.28 -.17 -.03 .02 -.04 -.14 .08 .22| .66*-.03 -.11 .16 -.05 .02 -.13 -.25 -.01 -.17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .422) is: Lower 1730 -.023 1805 -.013 1789 -.012 1656 -.011 Higher 1696 .034 1741 .022 1771 .020 1806 .015 1775 to 1824 segment: Lower 1805 -.039 1795 -.035 1789 -.034 1803 -.033 Higher 1806 .127 1790 .066 1793 .021 1783 .017 1778 to 1827 segment: Lower 1805 -.036 1795 -.033 1789 -.031 1803 -.030 Higher 1806 .134 1790 .070 1793 .019 1783 .016 =================================================================================================================================== OKC0601A 1673 to 1826 154 years Series 3 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1749 0 -.17 .06 .26 -.02 -.10 -.05 .19 .05 .06 -.17 .32* .17 .31 -.19 -.05 -.14 -.07 -.06 -.18 .00 .11 1725 1774 1 .04 .10 .25 -.14 -.07 -.04 .19 -.01 .02 -.14 .34| .43* .42 -.12 -.04 .04 -.06 -.14 -.21 .05 .21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .477) is: Lower 1739 -.046 1806 -.027 1695 -.013 1674 -.011 Higher 1790 .035 1696 .028 1749 .015 1799 .009 1700 to 1749 segment: Lower 1739 -.115 1741 -.032 1709 -.027 1738 -.023 Higher 1749 .075 1711 .038 1725 .027 1727 .026 1725 to 1774 segment: Lower 1739 -.144 1738 -.025 1736 -.025 1741 -.024 Higher 1749 .071 1725 .027 1727 .026 1770 .023 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1739 -4.8 SD; 1807 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0611A 1696 to 1824 129 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .503) is: Lower 1760 -.016 1711 -.015 1741 -.014 1801 -.013 Higher 1806 .059 1696 .048 1771 .022 1799 .011 =================================================================================================================================== OKC0408B 1497 to 1827 331 years Series 5 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1497 to 1513 -- not matched by another series [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1575 1624 -4 -.18 .03 .05 .03 -.33 -.07 .39*-.12 -.11 -.13 .20|-.13 -.01 .02 .02 .02 .11 -.05 .10 -.14 .18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .467) is: Lower 1515 -.014 1605 -.011 1589 -.011 1575 -.010 Higher 1696 .046 1806 .020 1741 .016 1622 .007 1575 to 1624 segment: Lower 1589 -.045 1575 -.044 1606 -.038 1600 -.025 Higher 1593 .070 1622 .045 1616 .038 1580 .020 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1605 1606 4.7 SD [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1556 +3.1 SD; 1575 +3.5 SD; 1601 -6.4 SD; 1605 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0408A 1514 to 1829 316 years Series 6 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1575 1624 0 -.17 .04 .08 -.17 -.35 .20 .16 -.19 -.14 .15 .29*-.27 .00 .17 .19 -.12 .15 -.13 -.13 .17 -.09 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .476) is: Lower 1753 -.016 1589 -.015 1727 -.012 1806 -.009 Higher 1696 .064 1741 .015 1790 .008 1571 .007 1575 to 1624 segment: Lower 1589 -.078 1575 -.031 1594 -.021 1607 -.018 Higher 1593 .049 1616 .040 1585 .028 1601 .019 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1589 +3.3 SD; 1696 -5.6 SD; 1753 -6.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0404B 1546 to 1805 260 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .530) is: Lower 1630 -.016 1635 -.016 1593 -.016 1669 -.011 Higher 1696 .057 1790 .014 1622 .008 1648 .006 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1593 +3.3 SD; 1630 +3.4 SD; 1635 +3.9 SD; 1669 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0396B 1592 to 1838 247 years Series 8 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1789 1838 4 -.06 -.05 .09 -.15 .12 .08 -.10 .10 -.15 -.13 .27| .02 .00 -.09 .27*-.12 -.15 -.08 .06 -.17 -.10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .456) is: Lower 1831 -.021 1812 -.010 1605 -.009 1835 -.009 Higher 1696 .073 1741 .016 1806 .015 1648 .005 1789 to 1838 segment: Lower 1831 -.090 1812 -.040 1822 -.034 1809 -.033 Higher 1806 .138 1799 .031 1790 .024 1829 .023 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1669 -4.9 SD; 1822 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0404A 1546 to 1785 240 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .403) is: Lower 1615 -.023 1685 -.014 1696 -.012 1686 -.012 Higher 1589 .014 1652 .012 1622 .012 1571 .006 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1609 +3.0 SD; 1615 -5.0 SD; 1696 +3.3 SD; 1739 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0402B 1573 to 1803 231 years Series 10 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1749 4 -.01 .09 -.12 .04 -.03 .11 .08 -.02 -.14 .07 .24|-.05 -.07 .05 .34* .18 .10 -.19 -.37 .12 -.26 1725 1774 -5 .21 .02 -.13 .02 -.04 .46* .01 -.16 -.04 .15 .39| .03 -.01 .00 .15 .34 -.12 -.15 -.25 -.04 .10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .460) is: Lower 1741 -.012 1736 -.012 1711 -.008 1605 -.008 Higher 1696 .050 1771 .021 1575 .009 1648 .007 1700 to 1749 segment: Lower 1736 -.058 1741 -.045 1711 -.041 1730 -.034 Higher 1701 .037 1702 .036 1729 .027 1712 .024 1725 to 1774 segment: Lower 1741 -.054 1736 -.052 1730 -.027 1770 -.027 Higher 1771 .128 1766 .033 1729 .018 1751 .016 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1730 +3.1 SD; 1753 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0402A 1573 to 1798 226 years Series 11 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1725 1774 -5 .14 .01 -.19 -.11 -.08 .42* .25 .01 .05 .17 .36|-.09 -.18 -.30 .00 .22 -.03 -.05 -.23 -.03 .01 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .516) is: Lower 1754 -.015 1601 -.010 1736 -.009 1670 -.008 Higher 1696 .091 1771 .017 1589 .012 1575 .008 1725 to 1774 segment: Lower 1754 -.075 1736 -.046 1766 -.025 1752 -.021 Higher 1771 .134 1738 .046 1727 .023 1757 .023 =================================================================================================================================== OKC0396A 1592 to 1809 218 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .566) is: Lower 1605 -.009 1667 -.007 1622 -.007 1711 -.007 Higher 1741 .018 1806 .017 1771 .016 1696 .014 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1741 -5.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0411B 1684 to 1855 172 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .546) is: Lower 1763 -.015 1832 -.015 1687 -.011 1836 -.009 Higher 1806 .052 1696 .023 1741 .010 1749 .010 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1848 +4.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0411A 1688 to 1855 168 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .525) is: Lower 1855 -.019 1688 -.015 1847 -.010 1841 -.009 Higher 1790 .026 1806 .016 1749 .011 1799 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1855 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0403B 1704 to 1857 154 years Series 15 [*] Later part of series cannot be checked from 1856 to 1857 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .549) is: Lower 1741 -.027 1787 -.015 1832 -.014 1806 -.009 Higher 1771 .031 1790 .016 1749 .009 1766 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1741 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0403A 1704 to 1854 151 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .525) is: Lower 1741 -.033 1843 -.014 1740 -.011 1814 -.007 Higher 1790 .029 1771 .026 1738 .008 1829 .008 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1741 +3.8 SD; 1843 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0394B 1694 to 1813 120 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .552) is: Lower 1696 -.087 1694 -.009 1758 -.009 1774 -.008 Higher 1806 .078 1741 .031 1738 .010 1725 .008 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1695 1696 5.2 SD 1696 1697 -4.2 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1696 +3.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0395A 1709 to 1827 119 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .508) is: Lower 1733 -.035 1750 -.012 1821 -.012 1760 -.010 Higher 1806 .079 1771 .024 1741 .012 1738 .011 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1750 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== OKC0395B 1709 to 1824 116 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .547) is: Lower 1797 -.031 1774 -.021 1758 -.014 1709 -.014 Higher 1806 .062 1741 .033 1749 .018 1771 .013 =================================================================================================================================== OKC0393A 1715 to 1828 114 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .542) is: Lower 1715 -.029 1803 -.017 1750 -.016 1821 -.011 Higher 1806 .119 1741 .034 1725 .009 1790 .008 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1750 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Harak 12:59 Tue 20 Sep 2005 Page 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 OKC0613A 1709 1828 120 5 0 .549 1.02 2.19 .423 .853 .170 2.57 .422 -.005 1 2 OKC0605A 1655 1827 173 7 2 .422 .62 1.35 .238 .810 .190 2.80 .430 .026 1 3 OKC0601A 1673 1826 154 7 2 .477 .91 1.82 .335 .831 .167 2.65 .433 .036 1 4 OKC0611A 1696 1824 129 5 0 .503 .55 2.12 .336 .843 .287 2.68 .531 -.010 1 5 OKC0408B 1497 1827 331 13 1 .467 .41 1.88 .321 .937 .198 2.67 .396 -.012 1 6 OKC0408A 1514 1829 316 13 1 .476 .42 1.25 .231 .899 .211 2.48 .280 -.026 1 7 OKC0404B 1546 1805 260 11 0 .530 .47 2.23 .402 .937 .252 2.64 .366 -.040 1 8 OKC0396B 1592 1838 247 10 1 .456 .60 2.58 .456 .934 .223 2.68 .346 .001 1 9 OKC0404A 1546 1785 240 10 0 .403 .47 2.21 .360 .909 .239 2.77 .428 .016 1 10 OKC0402B 1573 1803 231 10 2 .460 .42 1.40 .270 .886 .208 2.64 .346 -.046 2 11 OKC0402A 1573 1798 226 9 1 .516 .42 1.43 .235 .845 .216 2.49 .271 -.027 1 12 OKC0396A 1592 1809 218 9 0 .566 .63 2.40 .492 .926 .232 2.66 .385 -.011 1 13 OKC0411B 1684 1855 172 7 0 .546 .85 2.84 .578 .948 .160 2.76 .424 -.009 2 14 OKC0411A 1688 1855 168 7 0 .525 .76 2.72 .654 .966 .168 2.73 .509 .019 2 15 OKC0403B 1704 1857 154 6 0 .549 .94 2.26 .444 .873 .201 2.81 .461 -.007 1 16 OKC0403A 1704 1854 151 6 0 .525 .76 2.45 .491 .922 .210 2.59 .405 -.012 1 17 OKC0394B 1694 1813 120 5 0 .552 1.32 2.00 .331 .574 .189 2.55 .367 .001 1 18 OKC0395A 1709 1827 119 5 0 .508 1.32 2.23 .366 .706 .182 2.64 .496 .077 1 19 OKC0395B 1709 1824 116 4 0 .547 1.31 2.09 .310 .568 .184 2.62 .558 -.007 1 20 OKC0393A 1715 1828 114 5 0 .542 1.40 2.47 .353 .699 .158 2.38 .341 -.069 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 3759 154 10 .499 .69 2.84 .373 .868 .206 2.81 .395 -.008 - = [ COFECHA HARAKCOF ] = -