Bulgan Gol, Mongolia - mong019 Additional Site Information Gordon Jacoby, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Brendan Buckley, Nicole Davi Neil Pederson, and Baatarbileg Nachin Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 NOTES: The ITRDB raw ringwidth data file for Bulgan Gol, Mongolia (mong019.rwl) was updated 8/12/2014 to correct the series-end sentinel, changing from 999 to -9999. By convention, the -9999 sentinel is used for measurements made at .001 precision. No data values were changed. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MONG019.CRN Measurement file name : MONG019.RWL Date checked : 31OCT11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1375 Ending year : 2004 Principal investigators: G. Jacoby R. D'Arrigo B. Buckley N. Davi N. Pederson B. Nachin Site name : Bulgan Gol Site location : Mongolia Species information : LASI SIBERIAN LARCH Latitude : 4706 Longitude : 9058 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.448 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.271 Avg standard deviation : 3.646 Avg autocorrelation : 0.793 Number dated series : 44 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 166 Pct problem segments : 26.31 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Bulgan Gol 15:34 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 bg01w 1775 2004 .39 .29B .24B .20B .36 2 bg02n 1780 2004 .22B .37 .28B .08B .24B 3 bg03e 1830 2004 .20B .41 .53 4 bg04w 1830 2004 .36 .51 .43 5 bg05n 1820 2004 .27B .34B .29A .49 6 bg07e 1675 2004 .29B .57 .34 .31A .42 .37 .33 .19B .37 7 bg07n 1683 2004 .37 .43 .36 .37 .48 .52 .40 .23B .31A 8 bg07s' 1662 2004 .36 .35 .53 .29B .20B .31A .39 .47 .30A .43 9 bg08s 1692 2004 .43 .46 .48 .53 .58 .56 .40 .35 .36 10 bg08w 1625 2004 .19B .25A .43 .43 .38 .39B .45 .33 .31A .32A .30B 11 bg09e 1499 2004 .39 .40 .33A .23A .25A .51 .52 .42 .46 .45 .50 .47 .35 .22B .09B .05B .33 12 bg09s 1457 1830 .45 .29A .35 .43 .39 .34 .53 .59 .49 .54 .52 .48 .32B .28A .25A 13 bg09w 1457 2004 .60 .45 .33A .37 .36 .20A .42 .57 .47 .57 .56 .58 .42 .31A .38B .36 .37 .56 14 bg10sw 1464 2004 .30B .17B .06B .44 .65 .54 .51 .50 .40 .34 .43 .45 .48 .59 .70 .73 .69 .75 15 bg10w 1500 2004 .39 .48 .59 .72 .67 .56 .58 .54 .56 .57 .57 .64 .66 .51 .51 .69 16 bg11sw 1771 2004 .37 .38 .56 .60 .57 .34 17 bg12s 1464 2004 .38 .46 .36 .42 .62 .65 .68 .74 .59 .56 .62 .67 .61 .56 .62 .71 .74 .58 18 bg12se 1750 1984 .29A .18B .16B .21B .30A .35 19 bg12n 1476 2004 .32A .41 .50 .59 .73 .71 .44 .36 .54 .65 .60 .44 .52 .49 .47 .70 .60 20 bg14e 1635 2004 .33A .24B .34 .46 .45 .58 .47 .32B .35 .42 .54 21 bg15n 1530 2004 .61 .67 .66 .63 .61 .63 .70 .77 .72 .59 .73 .76 .73 .71 .51 22 bg15se 1575 2004 .55 .62 .57 .63 .68 .64 .61 .54 .62 .60 .48 .55 .64 23 bg16ne 1533 2004 .49 .59 .74 .68 .53 .49 .54 .55 .62 .70 .66 .52 .55 .63 .51 24 bg16se 1531 2004 .42 .50 .63 .71 .57 .64 .74 .69 .71 .67 .67 .57 .62 .78 .66 25 bg16nw 1750 2001 .26B .40 .26B .25B .29B .31A 26 bg17nw 1866 2004 .50 .48 27 bg17se 1796 1988 .28B .35 .27A .31A .37 28 bg20 1749 2004 .25B .24B .39 .34 .36 .30A .41 29 bg22s 1623 2004 .69 .68 .66 .62 .62 .69 .70 .72 .73 .73 .75 .64 30 bg23se 1699 2004 .32A .33A .67 .52 .33 .48 .47 .44 .55 31 bg25e 1686 2004 .60 .65 .59 .66 .69 .68 .71 .62 .62 32 bg26s 1773 2004 .31B .33B .25A .14B .33 .47 33 bg30e 1652 2004 .10B .23B .37B .28B .39 .65 .48 .07B .20B .37 34 bg30w 1660 2004 .15B .18B .33 .28B .20B .19B .25A .26A .35 .50 35 bg32 1666 2004 .39 .32A .25A .27B .37B .13B .18B .37 .29B .27A 36 bg32s 1662 2004 .32A .43 .47 .43 .32B .14B .20B .16B .35 .53 37 bg33 1542 2004 .55 .49 .61 .76 .59 .50 .50 .54 .69 .71 .78 .76 .67 .60 .54 38 bg33se 1534 2004 .66 .60 .67 .73 .71 .67 .74 .69 .71 .83 .73 .62 .58 .69 .73 39 bg33w 1505 1960 .64 .61 .58 .60 .65 .65 .62 .53 .53 .62 .61 .64 .63 .68 .59 .49 40 bg34e 1538 1729 .67 .66 .63 .61 .50 .39 .51 .50 41 bg34e 1763 1940 .55 .60 .62 .73 .76 .76 42 bg34n 1554 2004 .50 .57 .68 .61 .44 .52 .60 .53 .63 .67 .63 .63 .62 .57 43 bg35e 1419 2004 .54 .55 .39 .47 .55 .47 .50 .63 .63 .48 .42 .58 .67 .70 .65 .42 .40 .59 .64 .63 44 bg35w 1375 1804 .56 .60 .50 .50 .55 .65 .69 .53 .55 .60 .52 .67 .74 .64 .63 .66 Av segment correlation .55 .58 .44 .38 .40 .51 .54 .57 .63 .55 .45 .49 .54 .52 .48 .48 .46 .44 .45 .49 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Bulgan Gol 15:34 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1900 1925 1950 1975 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 bg01w 1775 2004 .47 .39 .51 .54 2 bg02n 1780 2004 .51 .30A .25A .27A 3 bg03e 1830 2004 .44 .38B .29B .29A 4 bg04w 1830 2004 .30A .32A .25A .26B 5 bg05n 1820 2004 .44 .36 .47 .46 6 bg07e 1675 2004 .51 .39 .28A .28A 7 bg07n 1683 2004 .35 .27B .20A .22A 8 bg07s' 1662 2004 .58 .43 .36 .35 9 bg08s 1692 2004 .29B .32A .17B .16B 10 bg08w 1625 2004 .14B .34B .45 .43 11 bg09e 1499 2004 .46 .22A .18A .19A 13 bg09w 1457 2004 .47 .33 .31A .37 14 bg10sw 1464 2004 .55 .52 .60 .55 15 bg10w 1500 2004 .50 .48 .38 .36 16 bg11sw 1771 2004 .11B .26B .42 .35 17 bg12s 1464 2004 .36 .20B .34 .26B 18 bg12se 1750 1984 .32A .24A .41 19 bg12n 1476 2004 .47 .49 .34 .31A 20 bg14e 1635 2004 .49 -.11B .25A .30A 21 bg15n 1530 2004 .21B .04B .15B .11B 22 bg15se 1575 2004 .42 -.01B .27B .22B 23 bg16ne 1533 2004 .27B .19B .40 .35 24 bg16se 1531 2004 .37 .22A .27B .21B 25 bg16nw 1750 2001 .24A .21B .19A .14A 26 bg17nw 1866 2004 .46 .43 .53 .53 27 bg17se 1796 1988 .33A .39 .44 28 bg20 1749 2004 .46 .35 .37 .34 29 bg22s 1623 2004 .26A .19B .22B .26B 30 bg23se 1699 2004 .38 .39 .52 .51 31 bg25e 1686 2004 .54 .34 .21A .22A 32 bg26s 1773 2004 .39 .39B .40 .34 33 bg30e 1652 2004 .32A .30A .52 .55 34 bg30w 1660 2004 .39 .41 .46 .45 35 bg32 1666 2004 .30A .44 .27A .23A 36 bg32s 1662 2004 .30A .29A .39 .34 37 bg33 1542 2004 .29A .26B .36 .37 38 bg33se 1534 2004 .61 .44 .35 .30A 39 bg33w 1505 1960 .47 .51 41 bg34e 1763 1940 .62 42 bg34n 1554 2004 .43 .33 .37 .37 43 bg35e 1419 2004 .61 .44 .23A .23A Av segment correlation .40 .32 .34 .33 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Bulgan Gol 15:34 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 bg01w 1775 2004 230 9 3 .363 11.08 39.78 9.339 .907 .262 2.68 .394 -.039 1 2 bg02n 1780 2004 225 9 7 .257 15.58 51.30 11.076 .880 .298 2.57 .363 -.028 1 3 bg03e 1830 2004 175 7 4 .323 6.97 20.61 3.530 .742 .248 2.50 .336 -.085 3 4 bg04w 1830 2004 175 7 4 .349 15.58 47.76 7.793 .785 .231 3.05 .443 -.008 1 5 bg05n 1820 2004 185 8 3 .395 10.23 35.74 5.235 .835 .194 2.66 .375 .003 1 6 bg07e 1675 2004 330 13 5 .341 5.03 16.23 2.907 .846 .256 2.73 .329 -.077 1 7 bg07n 1683 2004 322 13 5 .335 4.89 21.79 2.881 .846 .259 2.64 .313 -.048 1 8 bg07s' 1662 2004 343 14 4 .375 6.57 20.22 3.146 .764 .252 2.81 .420 -.007 1 9 bg08s 1692 2004 313 13 4 .383 5.00 13.15 2.227 .830 .193 2.67 .355 -.048 1 10 bg08w 1625 2004 380 15 8 .327 6.30 18.99 3.326 .885 .194 2.68 .355 -.031 1 11 bg09e 1499 2004 506 21 9 .338 4.24 15.39 2.318 .872 .218 2.61 .312 -.026 1 12 bg09s 1457 1830 374 15 4 .418 4.03 11.51 2.205 .828 .241 2.66 .405 -.064 1 13 bg09w 1457 2004 548 22 5 .419 4.46 17.93 2.916 .893 .232 2.63 .311 -.017 1 14 bg10sw 1464 2004 541 22 3 .494 4.54 19.57 3.607 .917 .246 2.59 .299 -.015 1 15 bg10w 1500 2004 505 20 0 .526 3.52 9.65 1.569 .751 .260 2.58 .232 -.021 1 16 bg11sw 1771 2004 234 10 2 .382 4.94 13.98 2.368 .728 .281 2.57 .369 -.041 1 17 bg12s 1464 2004 541 22 2 .525 5.73 31.52 4.104 .816 .306 2.71 .369 -.049 1 18 bg12se 1750 1984 235 9 7 .279 7.70 20.27 4.532 .860 .242 2.52 .405 -.014 1 19 bg12n 1476 2004 529 21 2 .502 5.14 43.98 5.525 .847 .299 2.56 .352 -.035 4 20 bg14e 1635 2004 370 15 6 .398 4.73 13.59 2.338 .715 .317 2.61 .303 -.018 1 21 bg15n 1530 2004 475 19 4 .567 3.44 9.96 1.480 .594 .335 2.59 .353 -.045 2 22 bg15se 1575 2004 430 17 3 .509 5.04 33.82 3.460 .842 .304 2.49 .297 -.034 2 23 bg16ne 1533 2004 472 19 2 .520 6.90 18.98 2.825 .621 .299 2.52 .279 -.045 1 24 bg16se 1531 2004 474 19 3 .564 5.79 16.68 3.168 .762 .309 2.45 .310 -.028 1 25 bg16nw 1750 2001 252 10 9 .245 4.36 11.20 2.273 .703 .360 2.57 .418 -.030 1 26 bg17nw 1866 2004 139 6 0 .464 6.66 13.39 2.252 .554 .254 2.71 .408 -.067 1 27 bg17se 1796 1988 193 8 4 .323 8.94 34.42 7.042 .880 .314 2.72 .412 -.019 1 28 bg20 1749 2004 256 11 3 .333 9.09 36.66 7.464 .894 .287 2.62 .331 .000 1 29 bg22s 1623 2004 382 16 4 .579 5.72 15.90 2.065 .613 .255 2.59 .380 -.034 2 30 bg23se 1699 2004 306 13 2 .446 9.78 27.50 5.736 .883 .233 2.71 .358 -.041 1 31 bg25e 1686 2004 319 13 2 .544 5.34 12.67 1.898 .596 .263 2.63 .320 -.046 1 32 bg26s 1773 2004 232 10 5 .316 10.99 42.83 7.964 .906 .237 2.55 .364 .008 2 33 bg30e 1652 2004 353 14 8 .329 5.91 21.55 3.530 .877 .295 2.65 .415 -.036 1 34 bg30w 1660 2004 345 14 7 .303 6.70 24.78 4.012 .839 .287 2.59 .329 -.005 1 35 bg32 1666 2004 339 14 11 .274 6.86 33.37 4.628 .700 .323 3.03 .438 -.016 2 36 bg32s 1662 2004 343 14 7 .325 8.41 36.90 4.364 .651 .288 2.80 .385 .009 1 37 bg33 1542 2004 463 19 2 .545 4.60 21.25 2.802 .808 .274 2.64 .278 -.058 1 38 bg33se 1534 2004 471 19 1 .626 6.07 24.53 2.967 .784 .224 2.64 .358 -.042 1 39 bg33w 1505 1960 456 18 0 .592 4.03 15.93 2.436 .845 .260 2.86 .340 -.034 1 40 bg34e 1538 1729 192 8 0 .545 7.16 22.33 3.797 .793 .259 2.76 .437 -.086 1 41 bg34e 1763 1940 178 7 0 .645 3.53 7.53 1.406 .468 .354 2.38 .329 -.001 1 42 bg34n 1554 2004 451 18 0 .539 5.97 33.18 3.720 .748 .338 2.65 .324 -.044 1 43 bg35e 1419 2004 586 24 2 .503 5.65 30.59 3.629 .855 .257 2.53 .313 -.018 3 44 bg35w 1375 1804 430 16 0 .571 6.76 33.59 4.461 .866 .260 2.59 .383 -.007 2 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 15598 631 166 .448 6.08 51.30 3.646 .793 .271 3.05 .345 -.031