Khoton Nuur, Mongolia - mong024 Additional Site Information Gordon Jacoby, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Brendan Buckley, Nicole Davi Neil Pederson, and Baatarbileg Nachin Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MONG024.CRN Measurement file name : MONG024.RWL Date checked : 31OCT11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1215 Ending year : 2004 Principal investigators: G. Jacoby R. D'Arrigo B. Buckley N. Davi N. Pederson B. Nachin Site name : Khoton Nuur Site location : Mongolia Species information : LASI SIBERIAN LARCH Latitude : 4830 Longitude : 8830 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.680 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.260 Avg standard deviation : 0.259 Avg autocorrelation : 0.734 Number dated series : 34 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 3 Pct problem segments : 0.63 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Khoton Nuur 15:37 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 XN07s 1215 1631 .79 .88 .91 .89 .83 .67 .79 .86 .74 .76 .70 .61 .64 .62 .69 .83 .80 2 XN07sw 1222 1717 .79 .88 .91 .89 .83 .67 .79 .86 .74 .76 .79 .75 .71 .76 .84 .80 .82 .84 .70 .67 8 XN05ne 1614 2004 .74 .72 .54 .61 9 XN07n 1628 2004 .63 .54 .57 10 XN07ne 1596 2004 .77 .78 .60 .56 .47 11 XN08nw 1508 2004 .64 .76 .77 .72 .80 .87 .86 .79 13 XN08se 1527 2004 .71 .86 .75 .66 .75 .83 .80 14 XN09ne 1647 2004 .70 .67 .78 18 XN11se 1609 2004 .59 .64 .64 .56 19 XN11sw 1567 2004 .50 .57 .73 .81 .85 .84 22 XN13se 1689 2004 .63 24 XN14ne 1663 2004 .72 .68 26 XN16w 1577 2004 .53 .73 .72 .72 .60 29 XN18n 1493 2004 .74 .73 .68 .80 .69 .59 .72 .67 .64 30 XN18ne 1524 2004 .71 .71 .63 .67 .71 .70 .71 .64 31 XN18s 1502 1776 .74 .67 .72 .72 .59 .58 .66 .53 32 XN18w 1663 2004 .70 .71 33 XN19 1528 2004 .60 .72 .67 .77 .85 .76 .71 34 XN19w 1485 2004 .46 .49 .72 .78 .76 .71 .72 .71 .72 Av segment correlation .79 .88 .91 .89 .83 .67 .79 .86 .74 .76 .75 .64 .67 .69 .73 .71 .72 .72 .70 .66 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Khoton Nuur 15:37 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 3 XN01nw 1732 2004 .49 .64 .62 .61 .65 .64 .80 .78 .72 .55 .53 4 XN01se 1749 2004 .57 .56 .50 .59 .64 .66 .82 .81 .64 .56 .56 5 XN02e 1712 2004 .64 .62 .79 .75 .53 .59 .57 .70 .71 .76 .76 .75 6 XN03e 1795 2004 .47 .47 .51 .59 .56 .46 .55 .62 .61 7 XN04s 1752 2004 .71 .63 .65 .71 .57 .60 .61 .59 .55 .54 8 XN05ne 1614 2004 .68 .73 .91 .85 .72 .73 .72 .83 .67 .56 .65 .63 9 XN07n 1628 2004 .61 .64 .66 .37 .26A .43 .57 .61 .42 .31A .43 .37 10 XN07ne 1596 2004 .51 .81 .83 .67 .59 .72 .77 .78 .59 .57 .66 .61 11 XN08nw 1508 2004 .82 .83 .83 .87 .81 .77 .78 .87 .83 .76 .77 .76 12 XN08s 1753 2004 .86 .86 .86 .87 .81 .79 .80 .82 .75 .69 13 XN08se 1527 2004 .82 .86 .86 .86 .82 .82 .73 .73 .76 .79 .76 .72 14 XN09ne 1647 2004 .84 .81 .82 .73 .55 .72 .79 .85 .88 .76 .67 .66 15 XN09sw 1804 2004 .50 .61 .64 .60 .63 .43 .48 .39 16 XN10e 1750 2004 .68 .70 .67 .57 .56 .82 .76 .68 .69 .74 17 XN10se 1798 2004 .52 .53 .64 .84 .84 .77 .59 .56 .54 18 XN11se 1609 2004 .59 .76 .90 .79 .66 .69 .73 .82 .69 .69 .62 .63 19 XN11sw 1567 2004 .81 .80 .83 .76 .70 .62 .58 .83 .72 .68 .74 .72 20 XN12nw 1715 2004 .60 .70 .72 .67 .67 .77 .74 .72 .63 .64 .71 .71 21 XN12se 1752 2004 .74 .70 .71 .72 .61 .62 .56 .59 .51 .49 22 XN13se 1689 2004 .65 .69 .78 .59 .49 .64 .57 .73 .68 .53 .53 .54 23 XN14n 1735 2004 .78 .84 .86 .88 .86 .84 .81 .70 .72 .77 .75 24 XN14ne 1663 2004 .68 .74 .42B .36 .76 .87 .89 .88 .77 .68 .71 .65 25 XN15 1764 2004 .56 .54 .51 .56 .56 .71 .55 .48 .66 .65 26 XN16w 1577 2004 .53 .68 .64 .57 .66 .70 .68 .75 .75 .69 .67 .63 27 XN17ne 1793 2004 .50 .53 .69 .78 .80 .67 .55 .56 .52 28 XN17s 1770 2004 .70 .72 .73 .76 .72 .74 .70 .64 .66 .64 29 XN18n 1493 2004 .76 .76 .74 .68 .73 .81 .77 .76 .69 .70 .65 .58 30 XN18ne 1524 2004 .71 .77 .72 .65 .65 .77 .76 .59 .61 .64 .54 .48 31 XN18s 1502 1776 .55 .54 .49 32 XN18w 1663 2004 .85 .75 .76 .72 .70 .80 .78 .77 .72 .73 .69 .66 33 XN19 1528 2004 .77 .84 .78 .60 .59 .72 .74 .83 .71 .68 .77 .78 34 XN19w 1485 2004 .75 .72 .57 .52 .54 .63 .75 .74 .74 .72 .71 .73 Av segment correlation .69 .72 .73 .65 .63 .70 .70 .75 .69 .64 .64 .62 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Khoton Nuur 15:37 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 XN07s 1215 1631 417 17 0 .762 .88 2.85 .465 .806 .273 2.60 .359 -.021 1 2 XN07sw 1222 1717 496 20 0 .775 .72 2.78 .479 .849 .281 2.53 .342 -.023 1 3 XN01nw 1732 2004 273 11 0 .624 .50 3.27 .356 .818 .259 2.72 .377 .002 1 4 XN01se 1749 2004 256 11 0 .616 .80 2.42 .393 .780 .264 2.58 .376 .004 2 5 XN02e 1712 2004 293 12 0 .674 .78 3.25 .570 .855 .231 2.68 .407 -.013 1 6 XN03e 1795 2004 210 9 0 .538 .52 1.29 .192 .594 .271 2.74 .440 -.028 1 7 XN04s 1752 2004 253 10 0 .611 .33 1.19 .158 .739 .270 2.76 .291 -.029 1 8 XN05ne 1614 2004 391 16 0 .698 .58 1.31 .223 .635 .263 2.70 .388 -.004 1 9 XN07n 1628 2004 377 15 2 .499 .80 2.51 .398 .809 .239 2.82 .359 -.025 1 10 XN07ne 1596 2004 409 17 0 .643 .78 2.14 .342 .794 .226 2.66 .372 .001 1 11 XN08nw 1508 2004 497 20 0 .786 .57 1.80 .203 .594 .266 2.42 .241 .006 1 12 XN08s 1753 2004 252 10 0 .805 .52 1.01 .149 .589 .215 2.63 .371 .032 1 13 XN08se 1527 2004 478 19 0 .775 .67 1.59 .211 .516 .260 2.58 .353 -.001 1 14 XN09ne 1647 2004 358 15 0 .740 .25 .64 .105 .641 .316 2.58 .371 -.017 7 15 XN09sw 1804 2004 201 8 0 .540 .28 .63 .090 .480 .249 2.79 .484 .090 1 16 XN10e 1750 2004 255 10 0 .670 .31 .86 .177 .850 .281 2.53 .331 .011 1 17 XN10se 1798 2004 207 9 0 .656 .28 1.03 .135 .671 .267 2.45 .305 .001 2 18 XN11se 1609 2004 396 16 0 .678 .48 1.56 .237 .778 .223 2.63 .409 .002 1 19 XN11sw 1567 2004 438 18 0 .718 .41 1.26 .182 .794 .233 2.54 .284 -.026 1 20 XN12nw 1715 2004 290 12 0 .658 .46 1.05 .170 .728 .240 2.61 .390 -.052 1 21 XN12se 1752 2004 253 10 0 .609 .57 1.42 .236 .821 .210 2.61 .409 -.045 1 22 XN13se 1689 2004 316 13 0 .620 .76 1.65 .248 .696 .201 2.48 .302 -.021 5 23 XN14n 1735 2004 270 11 0 .804 .27 .57 .103 .598 .295 2.56 .395 -.008 1 24 XN14ne 1663 2004 342 14 1 .679 .40 1.08 .191 .738 .316 2.65 .448 .000 1 25 XN15 1764 2004 241 10 0 .563 .80 2.16 .345 .774 .251 2.56 .353 .008 1 26 XN16w 1577 2004 428 17 0 .641 .56 1.76 .323 .865 .225 2.54 .276 .009 1 27 XN17ne 1793 2004 212 9 0 .625 .63 1.27 .195 .519 .249 2.67 .390 -.004 2 28 XN17s 1770 2004 235 10 0 .706 .43 .98 .148 .482 .281 2.66 .396 -.017 1 29 XN18n 1493 2004 512 21 0 .702 .51 2.42 .312 .818 .284 2.65 .311 -.011 4 30 XN18ne 1524 2004 481 20 0 .657 .28 1.53 .177 .838 .281 2.62 .379 -.013 1 31 XN18s 1502 1776 275 11 0 .613 .50 1.89 .284 .738 .299 2.58 .354 -.032 3 32 XN18w 1663 2004 342 14 0 .731 .35 1.27 .210 .777 .302 2.62 .359 -.007 1 33 XN19 1528 2004 477 19 0 .712 .53 1.67 .259 .768 .252 2.69 .333 .000 1 34 XN19w 1485 2004 520 21 0 .659 .46 2.12 .239 .787 .249 2.58 .323 -.019 4 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 11651 475 3 .680 .54 3.27 .259 .734 .260 2.82 .354 -.008