Zurkh Togol, Mongolia - mong032
Additional Site Information
Gordon Jacoby, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Brendan Buckley, Nicole Davi
Neil Pederson, and Baatarbileg Nachin
Purpose of Collection:
Climatology - precipitation analysis
Reference:
Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo,
G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010.
Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium.
Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010.
DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188
COFECHA output:
Chronology file name : MONG032.CRN
Measurement file name : MONG032.RWL
Date checked : 31OCT11
Checked by : B. Bauer
Beginning year : 1261
Ending year : 2003
Principal investigators: G. Jacoby R. D'Arrigo B. Buckley N. Davi N. Pederson B. Nachin
Site name : Zurkh Togol
Site location : Mongolia
Species information : LASI SIBERIAN LARCH
Latitude : 4631
Longitude : 10057
Elevation : M
Series intercorrelation: 0.596
Avg mean sensitivity : 0.273
Avg standard deviation : 0.348
Avg autocorrelation : 0.776
Number dated series : 47
Segment length tested : 50
Number problem segments: 47
Pct problem segments : 8.51
PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Zurkh Togol 15:44 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 5
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Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years
Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position
Seq Series Time_span 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800
1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849
--- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
3 zt02a 1622 2002 .55 .49 .70 .73 .58 .61 .61 .68 .88
4 zt02b 1641 2002 .66 .70 .75 .69 .67 .58 .68 .83
7 zt03a 1732 2002 .65 .41 .40 .78
8 zt03b 1768 2002 .68 .64 .70
16 zt05w 1716 2002 .60 .53 .52 .63 .61
17 zt05wb 1732 2002 .41 .50 .65 .68
18 zt06a 1770 2002 .70 .70 .82
19 zt06b 1774 2002 .70 .71 .75
21 zt07a 1732 2002 .64 .71 .60 .71
22 zt07b 1687 2002 .76 .76 .59 .62 .79 .87
24 zt07d 1747 2002 .66 .66 .57 .69
25 zt07sw 1647 1854 .55 .55 .78 .77 .59 .43 .52 .81
26 zt07w 1700 2002 .76 .56 .50 .66 .82
27 zt08 1789 2002 .61 .59
28 zt08a 1749 2002 .56 .60 .57 .71
29 zt08b 1745 2002 .70 .65 .62 .73
31 zt09a 1651 2002 .76 .77 .61 .55 .71 .82 .87
32 zt10e 1668 2002 .52 .57 .62 .79 .70 .65 .58
33 zt10n 1651 2002 .49 .50 .62 .82 .72 .70 .56
34 zt11n 1546 2002 .69 .74 .68 .72 .62 .52 .65 .56 .60 .56 .47 .74
35 zt11w 1506 2002 .54 .61 .67 .60 .64 .52 .39 .53 .55 .57 .54 .62 .73
36 zt12ne 1400 2002 .71 .67 .44 .55 .62 .51 .59 .72 .67 .63 .52 .52 .39 .38 .48 .50 .57
37 zt12nw 1389 2002 .65 .73 .74 .52 .50 .50 .64 .70 .67 .68 .75 .43 .29A .26A .41 .57 .58 .55
38 zt13s 1772 2002 .42 .41 .40
39 zt14s 1338 2002 .58 .58 .39 .54 .57 .22B .51 .64 .58 .76 .77 .72 .72 .78 .76 .61 .56 .67 .85 .73
40 zt14w 1261 2002 .44 .44 .54 .28A .14B .19B .40 .65 .76 .82 .85 .81 .82 .82 .75 .67 .70 .72 .83 .80
41 zt15nw 1643 2002 .49 .63 .66 .54 .44 .44 .51 .61
42 zt15s 1639 2002 .63 .70 .79 .65 .64 .57 .52 .61
43 ZT16N 1723 2002 .75 .79 .71 .71 .75
44 zt17ne 1664 2002 .72 .77 .80 .72 .68 .75 .75
45 zt17s 1725 2002 .72 .75 .67 .62
46 ZT18 1587 2002 .45 .46 .63 .66 .67 .44 .48 .53 .68 .73
47 ZT? 1810 2002 .66
Av segment correlation .51 .51 .53 .57 .53 .34 .49 .59 .63 .71 .68 .66 .63 .62 .66 .61 .61 .60 .63 .70
PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Zurkh Togol 15:44 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 6
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Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years
Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position
Seq Series Time_span 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975
1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024
--- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
1 zt01 1899 2002 .54 .55 .45 .32A .37
2 zt01ne 1831 2002 .61 .69 .75 .73 .54 .50 .53
3 zt02a 1622 2002 .87 .86 .72 .67 .50 .39 .43
4 zt02b 1641 2002 .84 .83 .70 .63 .61 .45 .47
5 zt02y 1845 2002 .73 .72 .59 .56 .66 .59 .65
6 zt02z 1844 2002 .17B .30A .36 .41 .44 .53 .61
7 zt03a 1732 2002 .67 .70 .72 .65 .55 .45 .44
8 zt03b 1768 2002 .74 .78 .79 .75 .62 .58 .60
9 zt03y 1840 2002 .69 .69 .68 .68 .60 .47 .49
10 zt03z 1865 2002 .48 .54 .49 .44 .62 .65
11 zt04a 1836 2002 .53 .43 .44 .49B .40 .31B .34B
12 zt04b 1885 1999 .44 .50 .48 .38
13 zt04e 1873 2002 .73 .70 .39 .34 .37 .40
14 zt04w 1876 2002 .77 .61 .47 .39 .42
15 zt05 1917 2002 .21B .18B .22A .29A
16 zt05w 1716 2002 .72 .77 .79 .57 .43 .58 .62
17 zt05wb 1732 2002 .81 .75 .62 .63 .40 .47 .48
18 zt06a 1770 2002 .82 .85 .85 .74 .70 .72 .72
19 zt06b 1774 2002 .82 .89 .85 .74 .76 .80 .80
20 ZT07 1857 2003 .79 .82 .65 .49 .54 .54
21 zt07a 1732 2002 .82 .76 .64 .54 .50 .48 .50
22 zt07b 1687 2002 .80 .83 .77 .64 .64 .46 .49
23 zt07c 1857 2002 .74 .77 .72 .62 .65 .65
24 zt07d 1747 2002 .85 .83 .81 .62 .51 .49 .48
25 zt07sw 1647 1854 .78
26 zt07w 1700 2002 .73 .74 .83 .80 .72 .68 .70
27 zt08 1789 2002 .72 .86 .71 .62 .60 .62 .63
28 zt08a 1749 2002 .80 .79 .79 .78 .61 .31A .35
29 zt08b 1745 2002 .78 .79 .78 .80 .63 .52 .53
30 zt08s 1839 2002 .66 .65 .44 .53 .59 .66 .69
31 zt09a 1651 2002 .76 .85 .87 .78 .68 .64 .64
32 zt10e 1668 2002 .42 .59 .67 .27A .15B .31A .30A
33 zt10n 1651 2002 .45 .73 .80 .40 .25B .34 .34
34 zt11n 1546 2002 .57 .35B .31B .14B .13B .32A .32A
35 zt11w 1506 2002 .65 .56 .52 .25B .25A .36 .38
36 zt12ne 1400 2002 .53 .31A .23B .15B .23B .36 .33
37 zt12nw 1389 2002 .47 .50 .39 .12B .16B .15B .13B
38 zt13s 1772 2002 .45 .52 .52 .32B .14B .15B .18B
39 zt14s 1338 2002 .60 .72 .79 .40 .25B .53 .52
40 zt14w 1261 2002 .72 .72 .71 .48 .40 .61 .62
41 zt15nw 1643 2002 .60 .49 .48 .40B .37 .51 .41
42 zt15s 1639 2002 .53 .45 .56 .47 .43 .60 .59
43 ZT16N 1723 2002 .68 .66 .56 .39 .37 .48 .50
44 zt17ne 1664 2002 .65 .65 .53 .46B .33 .31A .25A
45 zt17s 1725 2002 .45 .44 .47 .37 .39 .59 .59
46 ZT18 1587 2002 .63 .81 .80 .79 .62 .51 .53
47 ZT? 1810 2002 .69 .70 .75 .73 .52 .54 .57
Av segment correlation .66 .67 .65 .54 .46 .47 .49
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Zurkh Togol 15:44 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 11
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
1 zt01 1899 2002 104 5 1 .445 .71 1.87 .375 .778 .278 2.81 .429 -.057 1
2 zt01ne 1831 2002 172 7 0 .667 .72 2.26 .348 .702 .287 2.73 .452 -.030 1
3 zt02a 1622 2002 381 16 0 .673 .99 3.44 .599 .796 .294 2.63 .384 .025 1
4 zt02b 1641 2002 362 15 0 .685 .77 3.05 .484 .841 .311 2.52 .346 .007 1
5 zt02y 1845 2002 158 7 0 .659 .81 2.57 .519 .855 .343 2.53 .404 .000 1
6 zt02z 1844 2002 159 7 2 .353 .46 1.89 .392 .787 .419 2.77 .476 .020 1
7 zt03a 1732 2002 271 11 0 .558 .76 2.09 .411 .762 .299 2.66 .405 .007 2
8 zt03b 1768 2002 235 10 0 .691 .90 2.16 .406 .728 .283 2.64 .330 .026 1
9 zt03y 1840 2002 163 7 0 .644 .45 1.46 .233 .756 .324 2.65 .431 -.070 1
10 zt03z 1865 2002 138 6 0 .526 .63 1.86 .390 .735 .381 2.65 .449 -.030 1
11 zt04a 1836 2002 167 7 3 .495 .68 3.52 .646 .843 .443 2.54 .362 -.037 1
12 zt04b 1885 1999 115 4 0 .446 .84 2.70 .517 .754 .385 2.59 .389 -.062 1
13 zt04e 1873 2002 130 6 0 .559 1.02 2.00 .421 .566 .352 2.43 .393 -.042 1
14 zt04w 1876 2002 127 5 0 .660 .77 1.53 .290 .546 .347 2.54 .350 -.024 1
15 zt05 1917 2002 86 4 4 .291 1.06 3.15 .625 .633 .332 2.99 .630 .032 3
16 zt05w 1716 2002 287 12 0 .640 .76 3.37 .487 .803 .288 2.61 .360 -.058 1
17 zt05wb 1732 2002 271 11 0 .586 .82 3.24 .462 .806 .243 2.68 .370 .033 1
18 zt06a 1770 2002 233 10 0 .771 .85 2.04 .396 .735 .304 2.64 .421 .024 1
19 zt06b 1774 2002 229 10 0 .789 .74 2.00 .351 .795 .273 2.50 .331 .031 1
20 ZT07 1857 2003 147 6 0 .661 .41 .91 .171 .702 .307 2.48 .422 .007 1
21 zt07a 1732 2002 271 11 0 .652 .54 1.68 .272 .758 .283 2.56 .352 .004 2
22 zt07b 1687 2002 316 13 0 .713 .56 2.20 .371 .811 .304 2.55 .302 .021 1
23 zt07c 1857 2002 146 6 0 .691 .33 1.34 .191 .710 .340 2.70 .422 .004 1
24 zt07d 1747 2002 256 11 0 .675 .44 1.73 .258 .718 .300 2.68 .352 -.011 1
25 zt07sw 1647 1854 208 9 0 .655 .63 1.72 .349 .739 .330 2.70 .471 -.015 1
26 zt07w 1700 2002 303 12 0 .713 .49 1.44 .241 .738 .302 2.53 .339 .000 1
27 zt08 1789 2002 214 9 0 .671 .50 1.38 .251 .804 .256 2.51 .423 .000 2
28 zt08a 1749 2002 254 11 1 .626 1.05 5.11 .706 .783 .312 2.37 .234 .011 4
29 zt08b 1745 2002 258 11 0 .691 .87 2.87 .430 .728 .270 2.67 .371 .020 2
30 zt08s 1839 2002 164 7 0 .595 .60 1.44 .245 .692 .266 2.49 .356 .006 1
31 zt09a 1651 2002 352 14 0 .746 1.13 2.89 .569 .835 .223 2.48 .301 .001 1
32 zt10e 1668 2002 335 14 4 .507 .65 1.42 .223 .821 .166 2.67 .446 .029 1
33 zt10n 1651 2002 352 14 1 .555 .61 1.39 .194 .788 .164 2.60 .374 -.007 3
34 zt11n 1546 2002 457 19 6 .488 .44 1.26 .187 .783 .238 2.60 .302 .023 1
35 zt11w 1506 2002 497 20 2 .517 .56 1.31 .184 .637 .218 2.45 .300 -.005 2
36 zt12ne 1400 2002 603 24 4 .484 .53 2.82 .432 .890 .254 2.62 .390 -.005 2
37 zt12nw 1389 2002 614 25 6 .490 .48 3.33 .444 .896 .263 2.68 .379 .016 2
38 zt13s 1772 2002 231 10 4 .364 .39 .94 .132 .575 .255 2.68 .382 .017 2
39 zt14s 1338 2002 665 27 2 .601 .40 1.35 .187 .786 .252 2.57 .341 -.011 6
40 zt14w 1261 2002 742 27 3 .618 .36 1.09 .203 .831 .288 2.75 .353 -.028 2
41 zt15nw 1643 2002 360 15 1 .509 .84 2.81 .428 .847 .186 2.67 .386 -.026 1
42 zt15s 1639 2002 364 15 0 .575 .68 2.06 .309 .822 .216 2.65 .407 -.018 1
43 ZT16N 1723 2002 280 12 0 .605 .47 1.66 .318 .865 .283 2.65 .374 .043 1
44 zt17ne 1664 2002 339 14 3 .601 .85 2.52 .295 .637 .214 2.52 .301 .035 1
45 zt17s 1725 2002 278 11 0 .553 .41 1.06 .154 .644 .260 2.71 .381 -.003 1
46 ZT18 1587 2002 416 17 0 .618 .85 3.33 .544 .864 .279 2.57 .341 -.036 1
47 ZT? 1810 2002 193 8 0 .667 .61 1.41 .268 .605 .335 2.52 .415 -.011 2
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
Total or mean: 13403 552 47 .596 .64 5.11 .348 .776 .273 2.99 .368 -.001