Upper Smith Creek, Montana - mt125
Additional Information
Greg Pederson Dave McWethy Bryan Swindell
Purpose of Collection: Climatology - Snowpack reconstruction
Reference:
Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, C.A. Woodhouse, J.L. Betancourt, D.B. Fagre,
J.S. Littell, E. Watson, B.H. Luckman, and L.J. Graumlich. 2011.
The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera.
Sciencexpress, Published online 9 June 2011.
DOI: 10.1126/science.1201570
COFECHA output:
Chronology file name : MT125.CRN
Measurement file name : MT125.RWL
Date checked : 07JUN11
Checked by : B. Bauer
Beginning year : 1602
Ending year : 2009
Principal investigators: Greg Pederson Dave McWethy Bryan Swindell
Site name : Upper Smith Creek
Site location : Montana
Species information : PSME DOUGLAS-FIR
Latitude : 4616
Longitude : -11032
Elevation : 1800M
Series intercorrelation: 0.733
Avg mean sensitivity : 0.229
Avg standard deviation : 0.371
Avg autocorrelation : 0.800
Number dated series : 49
Segment length tested : 50
Number problem segments: 3
Pct problem segments : 0.53
PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Upper Smith Creek 16:50 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 5
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Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years
Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position
Seq Series Time_span 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975
1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024
--- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
1 USC02A 1780 2009 .50 .72 .73 .84 .84 .80 .82 .84 .84
2 USC02B 1780 2009 .51 .66 .72 .88 .82 .76 .79 .84 .83
3 USC03A 1725 2009 .48 .54 .72 .87 .94 .87 .54 .63 .91 .88 .88
4 USC03B 1674 2009 .70 .72 .66 .53 .65 .73 .76 .62 .56 .58 .65 .87 .84 .84
5 USC04A 1720 2009 .51 .55 .75 .74 .79 .90 .83 .84 .85 .80 .86 .90
6 USC04B 1685 2009 .39 .37 .65 .79 .76 .78 .89 .89 .90 .88 .88 .91 .91
7 USC05A 1679 2009 .79 .51 .55 .78 .77 .79 .85 .81 .83 .79 .79 .87 .91
8 USC05B 1631 2009 .69 .67 .65 .39 .40 .62 .66 .71 .84 .92 .87 .69 .69 .79 .84
9 USC06A 1602 2009 .61 .74 .91 .88 .71 .70 .77 .81 .87 .90 .85 .78 .75 .77 .77 .80
10 USC06B 1623 2009 .71 .73 .82 .84 .70 .71 .83 .82 .85 .88 .88 .88 .85 .80 .80 .79
11 USC07A 1700 2009 .49 .70 .80 .76 .73 .77 .84 .76 .70 .85 .89 .90
12 USC08A 1635 2009 .63 .72 .79 .71 .73 .77 .72 .74 .83 .88 .85 .85 .82 .81 .81
13 USC08B 1643 2009 .74 .73 .80 .74 .69 .70 .71 .75 .79 .81 .85 .86 .85 .85 .90
14 USC09A 1632 2009 .58 .79 .79 .72 .71 .65 .65 .74 .82 .89 .88 .85 .89 .88 .90
15 USC09B 1644 2009 .73 .83 .79 .67 .77 .59 .49 .63 .75 .75 .77 .92 .90 .89 .92
16 USC10A 1679 1995 .74 .67 .69 .56 .49 .62 .60 .73 .82 .71 .78 .84
17 USC10B 1688 2009 .62 .68 .73 .67 .51 .51 .62 .64 .66 .75 .79 .80 .84
18 USC11A 1756 2009 .71 .72 .74 .83 .85 .82 .74 .79 .85 .88
19 USC11B 1752 2009 .75 .74 .73 .85 .90 .88 .83 .77 .80 .89
20 USC12A 1631 2009 .72 .89 .89 .51 .56 .82 .81 .84 .88 .86 .83 .86 .87 .83 .84
21 USC12B 1633 2009 .58 .86 .85 .71 .77 .77 .67 .70 .70 .71 .86 .89 .84 .86 .89
22 USC13A 1755 2009 .70 .73 .73 .84 .85 .81 .84 .82 .70 .75
23 USC13B 1739 2009 .41 .51 .75 .64 .62 .75 .75 .81 .76 .78 .86
24 USC14A 1752 2009 .67 .81 .83 .84 .83 .86 .86 .84 .81 .80
25 USC14B 1754 2009 .64 .69 .71 .87 .87 .86 .85 .88 .87 .88
26 USC15A 1612 2009 .66 .71 .77 .73 .68 .70 .66 .69 .77 .79 .90 .87 .72 .74 .82 .90
27 USC15B 1610 2009 .59 .75 .80 .85 .75 .64 .64 .64 .76 .87 .83 .76 .72 .74 .76 .76
28 USC16A 1732 2009 .71 .77 .69 .66 .74 .79 .82 .73 .66 .79 .84
29 USC16B 1741 2009 .56 .62 .69 .71 .83 .84 .80 .68 .63 .74 .77
30 USC17A 1654 2009 .75 .63 .59 .69 .73 .76 .78 .87 .84 .81 .75 .75 .78 .83
31 USC17B 1656 2009 .70 .78 .66 .75 .73 .72 .76 .84 .88 .81 .70 .77 .82 .85
32 USC18A 1848 2009 .83 .86 .74 .64 .82 .83 .84
33 USC19A 1634 2009 .58 .69 .79 .66 .63 .69 .60 .62 .74 .86 .85 .78 .80 .83 .83
34 USC19B 1628 2009 .43 .73 .77 .55 .64 .63 .44 .53 .71 .88 .79 .76 .74 .72 .77
35 USC20A 1750 2009 .50 .48 .45 .59 .75 .69 .64 .72 .75 .70
36 USC21A 1796 2009 .61 .64 .78 .80 .76 .74 .76 .77 .81
37 USC22A 1780 2009 .25B .52 .89 .87 .88 .78 .76 .84 .87
38 USC22B 1780 2009 .33 .59 .81 .82 .80 .78 .87 .89 .89
39 USC23A 1785 2009 .48 .32A .43 .63 .51 .42 .48 .55 .57
40 USC23B 1794 2009 .55 .53 .70 .73 .60 .35B .66 .76 .70
41 USC24A 1788 2009 .45 .51 .57 .77 .79 .81 .78 .77 .82
42 USC24B 1789 2009 .44 .54 .83 .89 .82 .85 .87 .86 .87
43 USC26A 1822 2009 .83 .84 .72 .67 .69 .74 .81 .78
44 USC26B 1826 2009 .64 .67 .59 .71 .86 .86 .85
45 USC27A 1826 2009 .81 .79 .59 .52 .79 .89 .88
46 USC27B 1905 2009 .74 .78 .69 .72
47 USC28A 1772 2009 .65 .65 .69 .79 .72 .77 .87 .86 .71 .73
48 USC28B 1661 2009 .58 .53 .59 .72 .71 .62 .66 .80 .76 .77 .85 .88 .80 .81
49 USC29A 1804 2009 .63 .56 .47 .47 .64 .77 .88 .89
Av segment correlation .64 .66 .76 .74 .62 .64 .69 .64 .69 .77 .80 .77 .75 .79 .81 .83
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Upper Smith Creek 16:50 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 9
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
1 USC02A 1780 2009 230 9 0 .742 1.05 2.44 .404 .760 .213 2.54 .275 -.009 1
2 USC02B 1780 2009 230 9 0 .734 1.06 2.39 .376 .682 .226 2.61 .374 -.045 1
3 USC03A 1725 2009 285 11 0 .728 1.02 2.40 .328 .783 .166 2.77 .422 -.023 1
4 USC03B 1674 2009 336 14 0 .676 .74 1.81 .327 .866 .189 2.56 .377 -.009 1
5 USC04A 1720 2009 290 12 0 .763 .86 2.12 .428 .881 .198 2.53 .294 -.030 2
6 USC04B 1685 2009 325 13 0 .766 .97 2.33 .474 .890 .193 2.46 .339 -.025 1
7 USC05A 1679 2009 331 13 0 .787 .44 1.31 .220 .865 .220 2.55 .372 -.009 2
8 USC05B 1631 2009 379 15 0 .669 .53 1.93 .316 .901 .204 2.40 .252 -.021 2
9 USC06A 1602 2009 408 16 0 .783 .53 1.98 .381 .884 .275 2.63 .366 -.013 1
10 USC06B 1623 2009 387 16 0 .809 .56 2.09 .392 .888 .263 2.66 .382 -.045 1
11 USC07A 1700 2009 310 12 0 .750 1.00 2.29 .410 .860 .181 2.64 .356 -.014 1
12 USC08A 1635 2009 375 15 0 .755 .51 2.85 .445 .911 .263 2.75 .307 -.039 1
13 USC08B 1643 2009 367 15 0 .781 .54 2.76 .451 .878 .283 2.77 .373 -.049 1
14 USC09A 1632 2009 378 15 0 .777 .84 1.84 .293 .731 .201 2.65 .372 -.021 1
15 USC09B 1644 2009 366 15 0 .760 .79 1.80 .284 .703 .207 2.68 .345 -.015 2
16 USC10A 1679 1995 317 12 0 .702 .67 1.43 .256 .884 .155 2.49 .352 -.033 1
17 USC10B 1688 2009 322 13 0 .671 .70 1.24 .224 .815 .164 2.53 .310 .012 2
18 USC11A 1756 2009 254 10 0 .779 .79 2.49 .492 .825 .274 2.72 .383 -.005 1
19 USC11B 1752 2009 258 10 0 .792 .88 2.62 .513 .803 .279 2.68 .447 -.037 1
20 USC12A 1631 2009 379 15 0 .800 .81 2.45 .584 .944 .195 2.65 .373 -.054 1
21 USC12B 1633 2009 377 15 0 .765 .83 2.30 .494 .914 .195 2.56 .319 -.020 2
22 USC13A 1755 2009 255 10 0 .760 .81 1.88 .384 .801 .235 2.46 .324 -.023 2
23 USC13B 1739 2009 271 11 0 .667 .82 2.78 .538 .885 .232 2.57 .345 -.075 1
24 USC14A 1752 2009 258 10 0 .789 .81 2.22 .372 .789 .221 2.81 .436 -.051 1
25 USC14B 1754 2009 256 10 0 .786 .77 2.03 .365 .809 .220 2.63 .400 -.043 1
26 USC15A 1612 2009 398 16 0 .750 .58 1.53 .266 .779 .253 2.79 .386 -.018 1
27 USC15B 1610 2009 400 16 0 .732 .64 2.09 .365 .875 .215 2.82 .415 -.009 1
28 USC16A 1732 2009 278 11 0 .740 .80 2.28 .356 .768 .220 2.67 .392 -.010 1
29 USC16B 1741 2009 269 11 0 .707 .87 3.05 .476 .841 .237 2.74 .441 -.015 1
30 USC17A 1654 2009 356 14 0 .749 .64 1.60 .313 .811 .218 2.76 .337 -.010 1
31 USC17B 1656 2009 354 14 0 .754 .60 1.72 .278 .805 .209 2.83 .474 -.025 1
32 USC18A 1848 2009 162 7 0 .785 .94 1.83 .357 .797 .207 2.53 .437 -.070 1
33 USC19A 1634 2009 376 15 0 .725 .77 2.24 .387 .818 .222 2.67 .433 -.045 1
34 USC19B 1628 2009 382 15 0 .667 .79 2.17 .333 .778 .204 2.59 .384 -.034 1
35 USC20A 1750 2009 260 10 0 .613 .35 .89 .166 .697 .292 2.49 .305 -.047 1
36 USC21A 1796 2009 214 9 0 .707 .82 4.09 .559 .790 .288 2.50 .306 -.008 2
37 USC22A 1780 2009 230 9 1 .720 .66 2.67 .317 .680 .287 2.56 .411 -.015 1
38 USC22B 1780 2009 230 9 0 .734 .60 2.94 .400 .808 .287 2.57 .391 -.046 1
39 USC23A 1785 2009 225 9 1 .472 1.32 4.37 .527 .779 .207 2.66 .406 -.012 1
40 USC23B 1794 2009 216 9 1 .591 1.53 5.77 .672 .799 .189 2.64 .366 -.024 1
41 USC24A 1788 2009 222 9 0 .678 1.61 3.13 .495 .656 .200 2.53 .329 -.061 1
42 USC24B 1789 2009 221 9 0 .773 1.41 2.98 .458 .691 .200 2.69 .353 -.026 1
43 USC26A 1822 2009 188 8 0 .744 .38 .83 .138 .541 .286 2.50 .314 -.038 1
44 USC26B 1826 2009 184 7 0 .724 .34 .85 .142 .632 .316 2.49 .373 -.048 1
45 USC27A 1826 2009 184 7 0 .749 .70 2.37 .315 .699 .256 2.85 .507 -.033 1
46 USC27B 1905 2009 105 4 0 .726 1.27 3.70 .712 .846 .265 2.60 .430 .029 1
47 USC28A 1772 2009 238 10 0 .754 .41 .86 .156 .484 .318 2.66 .408 -.040 2
48 USC28B 1661 2009 349 14 0 .709 .49 1.20 .185 .615 .269 2.67 .380 -.034 2
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Upper Smith Creek 16:50 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 10
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
49 USC29A 1804 2009 206 8 0 .644 .79 2.21 .347 .696 .277 2.66 .369 -.019 2
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
Total or mean: 14191 566 3 .733 .76 5.77 .371 .800 .229 2.85 .370 -.027