Big Timber Creek PIFL, Montana - MT148 Additional Site Information Gregory Pederson Lisa Graumlich Mike Pisaric Lindsay Waggoner COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MT148.CRN Measurement file name : MT148.RWL Date checked : 30JUL19 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1467 Ending year : 2000 Principal investigators: Gregory Pederson Lisa Graumlich Mike Pisaric Lindsay Waggoner Site name : Big Timber Creek Site location : Montana Species information : PIFL LIMBER PINE Latitude : 4620 Longitude : -11012 Elevation : 2030M Series intercorrelation: 0.648 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.319 Avg standard deviation : 0.183 Avg autocorrelation : 0.750 Number dated series : 53 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 23 Pct problem segments : 3.87 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Big Timber Creek 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BTC306 1753 2000 .72 .83 .87 .78 .63 .43 .61 .69 2 BTC308A 1703 2000 .79 .72 .77 .81 .86 .79 .57 .58 .67 .79 3 BTC307A 1820 2000 .79 .72 .57 .57 .54 .59 4 BTC301 1820 2000 .74 .70 .36 .29A .63 .75 5 BTC308B 1728 2000 .59 .67 .78 .82 .73 .49 .52 .61 .62 6 BTC407 1750 2000 .64 .82 .85 .72 .50 .41 .50 .59 7 BTC300 1722 2000 .46 .46 .70 .80 .82 .62 .51 .65 .72 .59 8 BTC203A 1640 2000 .39 .48 .79 .77 .69 .68 .82 .84 .79 .64 .63 .73 .66 9 304a 1739 2000 .61 .21B .47 .60 .54 .65 .50 .39 .35 10 309a 1715 2000 .69 .82 .74 .52 .64 .90 .80 .67 .58 .52 11 355B 1635 2000 .60 .70 .72 .83 .80 .77 .84 .84 .84 .86 .66 .56 .67 12 404A 1696 1986 .63 .72 .67 .56 .76 .88 .77 .62 .63 .62 .47 13 354 1730 2000 .65 .64 .79 .83 .79 .74 .74 .50 .27B 14 BTC356 1811 2000 .81 .88 .78 .70 .49 .23B 15 410B 1665 2000 .77 .82 .84 .83 .82 .84 .90 .85 .71 .51 .55 .56 16 360B 1751 2000 .27B .31A .72 .77 .58 .46 .52 .47 17 359A 1726 2000 .67 .50 .65 .68 .51 .56 .62 .52 .59 18 352A 1783 1886 .82 .85 .84 .85 19 352AA 1899 2000 .52 .50 .59 20 403B 1688 2000 .64 .81 .80 .61 .28A .40 .59 .64 .62 .63 .65 21 302 1714 1987 .88 .86 .72 .82 .85 .80 .70 .51 .56 .53 22 355A 1742 2000 .82 .72 .69 .76 .76 .76 .67 .68 .68 23 405a 1698 2000 .77 .75 .72 .59 .64 .59 .60 .47 .33 .45 .44 24 304b 1758 2000 .27A .51 .66 .54 .35 .30A .33 .37 25 401 1511 2000 .74 .63 .54 .72 .61 .61 .72 .79 .84 .75 .65 .62 .80 .89 .72 .49 .45 .54 26 352b 1794 2000 .81 .86 .83 .77 .68 .63 .47 27 357a 1567 2000 .75 .81 .77 .49 .46 .72 .79 .86 .88 .85 .77 .67 .73 .75 .72 .67 28 351b 1540 2000 .60 .53 .62 .51 .47 .71 .85 .84 .77 .66 .83 .78 .72 .73 .71 .65 .63 29 403a 1760 2000 .34 .20B .53 .59 .31A .37 .51 .58 30 413b 1751 2000 .57 .47 .60 .73 .53 .33A .50 .67 31 360a 1751 2000 .42 .43 .69 .74 .57 .32A .45 .56 32 351a 1538 1984 .66 .56 .54 .47 .60 .72 .78 .86 .79 .51 .70 .73 .70 .77 .71 .64 .67 33 409 1524 1912 .47 .47 .56 .81 .74 .39 .31A .62 .71 .75 .73 .38 .37 .51 .56 .47 34 358 1563 1848 .64 .73 .68 .57 .61 .80 .81 .74 .70 .75 .73 35 310a 1467 1983 .59 .61 .56B .61 .62 .76 .83 .76 .67 .75 .86 .86 .78 .56 .64 .76 .77 .73 .70 .79 36 408a 1650 1859 .64 .77 .84 .80 .66 .51 .54 .41 37 402B 1639 1775 .46 .51 .65 .85 .69 .68 38 402B 1800 2000 .50 .45 .61 .45 .35 .53 39 BTC019 1679 1894 .81 .91 .84 .80 .91 .90 .87 .89 40 BTC013 1650 1876 .56 .78 .88 .81 .70 .77 .67 .60 .60 41 BTC016 1677 1839 .67 .76 .69 .52 .65 .62 42 BTC118 1656 1823 .52 .67 .81 .66 .39 .55 43 015 1470 1881 .67 .72 .62 .44 .32B .57 .61 .36 .48 .69 .77 .76 .75 .76 .81 .88 .87 44 122 1499 1888 .66 .62 .57 .51 .65 .70 .64 .75 .80 .68 .66 .75 .79 .70 .47 .48 45 123 1680 1851 .53 .59 .64 .61 .42 .63 .67 46 014 1602 1867 .50 .29A .29A .57 .83 .72 .50 .66 .73 .67 47 012 1588 1832 .42 .56 .50 .43 .45 .71 .66 .37 .68 .79 48 119 1627 1892 .40 .56 .76 .82 .85 .86 .73 .81 .91 .84 49 017 1596 1823 .65 .59 .18B .33B .70 .78 .78 .82 .85 50 164 1608 1856 .52 .50 .55 .69 .83 .72 .49 .55 .67 .56 51 165 1563 1881 .69 .71 .62 .59 .63 .67 .67 .66 .58 .53 .51 .51 .51 52 413A 1744 2000 .36 .51 .56 .50 .48 .31A .17B .32A .46 53 350 1624 1916 .65 .63 .62 .70 .83 .85 .67 .61 .68 .69 .67 .55 Av segment correlation .63 .66 .60 .57 .57 .67 .62 .50 .57 .71 .78 .73 .62 .66 .72 .70 .63 .53 .55 .57 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Big Timber Creek 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1950 1975 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BTC306 1753 2000 .73 .73 2 BTC308A 1703 2000 .76 .74 3 BTC307A 1820 2000 .65 .64 4 BTC301 1820 2000 .71 .70 5 BTC308B 1728 2000 .63 .64 6 BTC407 1750 2000 .60 .61 7 BTC300 1722 2000 .62 .61 8 BTC203A 1640 2000 .59 .56 9 304a 1739 2000 .36 .36 10 309a 1715 2000 .67 .68 11 355B 1635 2000 .61 .59 12 404A 1696 1986 .34 13 354 1730 2000 .34 .36 14 BTC356 1811 2000 .45 .46 15 410B 1665 2000 .53 .54 16 360B 1751 2000 .39 .39 17 359A 1726 2000 .54 .55 19 352AA 1899 2000 .55 .53 20 403B 1688 2000 .55 .55 21 302 1714 1987 .64 22 355A 1742 2000 .72 .73 23 405a 1698 2000 .65 .65 24 304b 1758 2000 .51 .53 25 401 1511 2000 .69 .69 26 352b 1794 2000 .52 .53 27 357a 1567 2000 .75 .72 28 351b 1540 2000 .58 .61 29 403a 1760 2000 .63 .64 30 413b 1751 2000 .61 .62 31 360a 1751 2000 .56 .56 32 351a 1538 1984 .65 35 310a 1467 1983 .75 38 402B 1800 2000 .66 .64 52 413A 1744 2000 .51 .49 Av segment correlation .59 .59 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Big Timber Creek 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 BTC306 1753 2000 248 10 0 .707 .68 1.80 .406 .877 .273 2.50 .324 -.043 1 2 BTC308A 1703 2000 298 12 0 .737 .56 2.20 .381 .840 .344 2.65 .377 -.053 1 3 BTC307A 1820 2000 181 8 0 .669 .59 1.60 .353 .820 .334 2.48 .412 -.045 1 4 BTC301 1820 2000 181 8 1 .609 .68 2.12 .459 .808 .303 2.88 .490 .030 2 5 BTC308B 1728 2000 273 11 0 .655 .52 1.77 .325 .775 .348 2.66 .352 -.057 1 6 BTC407 1750 2000 251 10 0 .660 .54 2.24 .386 .795 .343 2.64 .436 -.058 1 7 BTC300 1722 2000 279 12 0 .619 .52 1.23 .274 .800 .287 2.55 .422 -.038 3 8 BTC203A 1640 2000 361 15 0 .656 .25 .58 .093 .564 .298 2.46 .267 -.004 1 9 304a 1739 2000 262 11 1 .493 .16 .46 .083 .833 .216 2.46 .311 .010 1 10 309a 1715 2000 286 12 0 .676 .15 .47 .078 .533 .383 2.59 .403 -.039 1 11 355B 1635 2000 366 15 0 .726 .15 .95 .111 .857 .278 2.57 .388 -.019 1 12 404A 1696 1986 291 12 0 .649 .21 .57 .104 .770 .266 2.75 .454 -.058 1 13 354 1730 2000 271 11 1 .648 .16 .75 .104 .822 .261 2.47 .259 -.028 3 14 BTC356 1811 2000 190 8 1 .621 .48 .93 .158 .587 .246 2.37 .285 -.039 1 15 410B 1665 2000 336 14 0 .695 .19 .72 .118 .758 .305 2.28 .209 -.011 1 16 360B 1751 2000 250 10 2 .499 .17 .78 .114 .787 .310 2.76 .395 -.055 1 17 359A 1726 2000 275 11 0 .589 .17 .49 .067 .665 .249 2.55 .313 -.044 1 18 352A 1783 1886 104 4 0 .830 .46 .86 .157 .475 .313 2.53 .402 -.040 1 19 352AA 1899 2000 102 5 0 .512 .17 .66 .127 .794 .260 2.73 .390 -.052 1 20 403B 1688 2000 313 13 1 .629 .12 .29 .049 .706 .239 2.68 .320 .004 1 21 302 1714 1987 274 11 0 .765 .18 .98 .130 .786 .403 2.46 .312 -.011 1 22 355A 1742 2000 259 11 0 .750 .12 .29 .044 .540 .290 2.73 .403 -.020 1 23 405a 1698 2000 303 13 0 .596 .14 .51 .090 .866 .231 2.51 .355 -.056 1 24 304b 1758 2000 243 10 2 .415 .13 .40 .066 .848 .217 2.55 .341 -.016 1 25 401 1511 2000 490 20 0 .695 .26 1.09 .170 .758 .318 2.85 .415 -.017 2 26 352b 1794 2000 207 9 0 .721 .36 1.15 .258 .797 .343 2.65 .379 -.049 1 27 357a 1567 2000 434 18 0 .766 .15 .71 .105 .744 .381 2.71 .376 -.057 1 28 351b 1540 2000 461 19 0 .702 .16 .78 .110 .787 .310 2.77 .306 -.033 1 29 403a 1760 2000 241 10 2 .459 .11 .34 .062 .741 .287 2.62 .299 -.001 2 30 413b 1751 2000 250 10 1 .569 .22 .60 .091 .537 .291 2.76 .408 -.006 2 31 360a 1751 2000 250 10 1 .541 .19 .77 .136 .777 .385 2.74 .352 -.032 2 32 351a 1538 1984 447 18 0 .693 .18 .78 .129 .842 .289 2.59 .334 -.012 1 33 409 1524 1912 389 16 1 .589 .15 .76 .135 .862 .388 2.54 .294 -.028 1 34 358 1563 1848 286 11 0 .731 .25 .87 .160 .680 .450 2.58 .382 -.066 1 35 310a 1467 1983 517 21 1 .688 .36 2.29 .302 .774 .408 2.62 .363 -.037 3 36 408a 1650 1859 210 8 0 .636 .22 .77 .161 .844 .354 2.46 .281 -.045 1 37 402B 1639 1775 137 6 0 .650 .24 .78 .129 .502 .433 2.75 .424 -.030 1 38 402B 1800 2000 201 8 0 .524 .13 .50 .078 .819 .258 2.97 .404 -.026 1 39 BTC019 1679 1894 216 8 0 .849 .54 1.34 .277 .615 .398 2.51 .445 -.056 1 40 BTC013 1650 1876 227 9 0 .737 .47 1.12 .209 .734 .293 2.46 .295 -.034 1 41 BTC016 1677 1839 163 6 0 .615 .41 1.38 .196 .600 .313 2.78 .423 -.064 1 42 BTC118 1656 1823 168 6 0 .614 .35 .87 .157 .778 .249 2.50 .382 -.028 1 43 015 1470 1881 412 17 1 .666 .20 1.35 .194 .895 .298 2.48 .273 -.021 3 44 122 1499 1888 390 16 0 .641 .50 1.84 .296 .702 .347 2.66 .311 -.027 1 45 123 1680 1851 172 7 0 .606 .57 1.16 .208 .672 .255 2.62 .343 -.032 1 46 014 1602 1867 266 10 2 .617 .73 2.42 .521 .810 .320 2.65 .409 -.053 1 47 012 1588 1832 245 10 0 .557 .59 1.68 .316 .772 .274 2.69 .366 -.011 1 48 119 1627 1892 266 10 0 .735 .34 .88 .174 .720 .338 2.61 .403 -.050 1 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Big Timber Creek 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 12 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 49 017 1596 1823 228 9 2 .676 .29 .85 .165 .574 .444 2.53 .362 -.069 1 50 164 1608 1856 249 10 0 .646 .32 1.03 .185 .664 .351 2.58 .303 -.029 1 51 165 1563 1881 319 13 0 .601 .47 1.30 .239 .692 .315 2.52 .259 -.009 2 52 413A 1744 2000 257 11 3 .407 .21 .95 .148 .723 .384 2.92 .480 -.002 1 53 350 1624 1916 293 12 0 .690 .32 1.46 .262 .891 .289 2.57 .297 -.026 3 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 14588 595 23 .648 .30 2.42 .183 .750 .319 2.97 .352 -.031