Big Timber Creek PSME, Montana - MT149 Additional Site Information Gregory Pederson Lisa Graumlich Mike Pisaric Lindsay Waggoner COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MT149.CRN Measurement file name : MT149.RWL Date checked : 30JUL19 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1406 Ending year : 2000 Principal investigators: Gregory Pederson Lisa Graumlich Mike Pisaric Lindsay Waggoner Site name : Big Timber Creek Site location : Montana Species information : PSME DOUGLAS-FIR Latitude : 4602 Longitude : -11012 Elevation : 2030M Series intercorrelation: 0.701 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.275 Avg standard deviation : 0.325 Avg autocorrelation : 0.768 Number dated series : 34 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 0 Pct problem segments : 0.00 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Big Timbet Creek PSME 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BTC008 1660 2000 .75 .79 .66 .52 .60 .78 .84 .69 .63 .69 2 BTC157 1770 2000 .70 .78 .86 .88 .88 .78 3 BTC160 1705 2000 .55 .44 .49 .77 .80 .81 .87 .77 4 BTC113 1705 2000 .75 .67 .58 .67 .79 .81 .70 .63 5 BTC111 1679 2000 .82 .79 .77 .74 .79 .85 .79 .74 .66 6 BTC55 1710 2000 .50 .45 .56 .78 .82 .82 .71 .61 7 BTC115 1800 2000 .72 .75 .74 .83 8 BTC52B 1797 2000 .55 .52 .70 .69 .70 9 BTC004 1690 2000 .62 .52 .57 .68 .77 .78 .64 .64 .77 10 BTC159 1670 2000 .56 .59 .48 .35 .67 .87 .90 .90 .87 .82 11 BTC109 1640 2000 .59 .74 .82 .78 .78 .84 .90 .87 .76 .76 .76 12 BTC001B 1767 2000 .39 .38 .47 .48 .46 .45 13 BTC154 1710 2000 .73 .69 .66 .83 .91 .91 .83 .67 14 BTC156 1790 2000 .84 .89 .92 .88 .81 15 BTC005B 1406 2000 .91 .92 .83 .79 .77 .65 .65 .81 .79 .71 .60 .57 .56 .52 .59 .58 .61 .70 .66 .44 16 BTC108B 1834 2000 .74 .76 .78 17 BTC112 1702 2000 .67 .63 .56 .62 .70 .77 .77 .80 18 BTC53 1681 2000 .73 .59 .43 .45 .68 .76 .79 .78 .73 19 BTC56 1630 2000 .47 .63 .79 .79 .69 .66 .66 .77 .74 .66 .68 20 BTC007A 1759 2000 .74 .60 .68 .76 .70 .67 21 BTC003B 1660 2000 .35 .44 .62 .35 .40 .84 .88 .86 .76 .60 22 BTC010 1650 2000 .63 .70 .79 .73 .66 .79 .89 .92 .80 .61 23 BTC54 1730 1999 .61 .52 .66 .63 .56 .62 .69 24 BTC155 1717 2000 .59 .60 .78 .77 .54 .40 .77 .83 25 BTC151A 1735 2000 .48 .50 .80 .81 .79 .76 .70 26 BTC110 1640 2000 .53 .55 .65 .72 .69 .76 .87 .89 .84 .79 .77 27 BTC001 1720 2000 .55 .56 .71 .82 .84 .79 .76 .73 28 BTC108A 1828 2000 .82 .83 .82 29 BTC003A 1736 2000 .49 .49 .79 .82 .81 .75 .59 30 BTC151B 1764 2000 .70 .77 .79 .75 .69 .72 31 BTC114 1696 2000 .68 .67 .70 .75 .69 .73 .79 .80 .62 32 BTC005A 1406 2000 .91 .92 .83 .79 .77 .65 .65 .81 .76 .70 .64 .64 .62 .50 .44 .51 .64 .68 .73 .66 33 BTC016 1677 1839 .62 .62 .62 .54 .64 .61 34 BTC124 1650 1811 .44 .62 .56 .56 .54 .68 Av segment correlation .91 .92 .83 .79 .77 .65 .65 .81 .78 .60 .59 .67 .64 .57 .61 .73 .76 .76 .74 .70 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Big Timbet Creek PSME 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1900 1925 1950 1975 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BTC008 1660 2000 .56 .72 .83 .83 2 BTC157 1770 2000 .75 .84 .85 .84 3 BTC160 1705 2000 .68 .71 .70 .69 4 BTC113 1705 2000 .66 .69 .73 .72 5 BTC111 1679 2000 .54 .75 .79 .79 6 BTC55 1710 2000 .60 .63 .74 .75 7 BTC115 1800 2000 .86 .87 .88 .87 8 BTC52B 1797 2000 .82 .78 .84 .83 9 BTC004 1690 2000 .57 .57 .76 .74 10 BTC159 1670 2000 .68 .35 .37 .33 11 BTC109 1640 2000 .74 .83 .82 .78 12 BTC001B 1767 2000 .55 .69 .67 .66 13 BTC154 1710 2000 .62 .60 .64 .62 14 BTC156 1790 2000 .78 .81 .84 .83 15 BTC005B 1406 2000 .39 .47 .56 .53 16 BTC108B 1834 2000 .75 .66 .56 .52 17 BTC112 1702 2000 .53 .46 .59 .55 18 BTC53 1681 2000 .67 .82 .85 .86 19 BTC56 1630 2000 .61 .61 .63 .55 20 BTC007A 1759 2000 .65 .68 .77 .76 21 BTC003B 1660 2000 .58 .71 .82 .82 22 BTC010 1650 2000 .60 .62 .71 .65 23 BTC54 1730 1999 .67 .68 .64 24 BTC155 1717 2000 .71 .72 .78 .77 25 BTC151A 1735 2000 .72 .82 .77 .77 26 BTC110 1640 2000 .71 .78 .85 .85 27 BTC001 1720 2000 .67 .74 .73 .74 28 BTC108A 1828 2000 .75 .72 .76 .72 29 BTC003A 1736 2000 .46 .53 .67 .64 30 BTC151B 1764 2000 .75 .73 .75 .75 31 BTC114 1696 2000 .53 .64 .77 .78 32 BTC005A 1406 2000 .48 .51 .61 .56 Av segment correlation .65 .68 .73 .71 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Big Timbet Creek PSME 16:04 Tue 30 Jul 2019 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 BTC008 1660 2000 341 14 0 .705 .75 2.05 .293 .723 .225 2.54 .381 -.037 1 2 BTC157 1770 2000 231 10 0 .804 .70 2.39 .427 .821 .317 2.70 .378 -.013 1 3 BTC160 1705 2000 296 12 0 .703 .68 1.66 .308 .761 .262 2.65 .378 -.053 1 4 BTC113 1705 2000 296 12 0 .719 .51 2.77 .524 .944 .257 2.62 .351 -.017 1 5 BTC111 1679 2000 322 13 0 .749 .55 3.60 .353 .816 .193 2.66 .374 -.048 2 6 BTC55 1710 2000 291 12 0 .693 .60 2.52 .360 .733 .326 2.67 .436 -.028 2 7 BTC115 1800 2000 201 8 0 .784 .76 3.97 .733 .914 .301 2.80 .493 -.063 1 8 BTC52B 1797 2000 204 9 0 .685 .61 1.50 .249 .744 .218 2.84 .366 -.037 1 9 BTC004 1690 2000 311 13 0 .661 .68 2.37 .421 .901 .218 2.58 .372 .009 1 10 BTC159 1670 2000 331 14 0 .675 .61 2.06 .389 .861 .242 2.66 .349 -.045 1 11 BTC109 1640 2000 361 15 0 .775 .57 1.42 .238 .722 .249 2.68 .359 -.041 2 12 BTC001B 1767 2000 234 10 0 .503 .88 2.97 .515 .890 .204 2.61 .430 -.045 1 13 BTC154 1710 2000 291 12 0 .753 .72 2.56 .389 .735 .302 2.53 .340 -.040 1 14 BTC156 1790 2000 211 9 0 .850 .67 1.68 .319 .691 .287 2.68 .400 -.031 1 15 BTC005B 1406 2000 595 24 0 .640 .41 1.01 .146 .737 .204 2.59 .293 -.019 1 16 BTC108B 1834 2000 167 7 0 .697 .49 1.05 .210 .452 .349 2.53 .329 -.048 1 17 BTC112 1702 2000 299 12 0 .633 .35 1.12 .183 .841 .218 2.61 .372 -.037 1 18 BTC53 1681 2000 320 13 0 .722 .66 3.58 .567 .812 .357 2.71 .428 -.063 1 19 BTC56 1630 2000 371 15 0 .654 .52 2.61 .435 .817 .342 2.67 .341 -.031 1 20 BTC007A 1759 2000 242 10 0 .685 .59 1.30 .181 .604 .200 2.64 .431 .004 1 21 BTC003B 1660 2000 341 14 0 .679 .54 1.74 .297 .795 .290 2.60 .325 -.047 1 22 BTC010 1650 2000 351 14 0 .751 .51 2.01 .410 .888 .334 2.51 .305 -.020 1 23 BTC54 1730 1999 270 10 0 .635 .71 3.09 .639 .932 .268 2.51 .360 -.030 1 24 BTC155 1717 2000 284 12 0 .700 .80 2.09 .432 .767 .328 2.56 .332 -.051 1 25 BTC151A 1735 2000 266 11 0 .734 .36 .93 .170 .472 .384 2.67 .376 -.071 2 26 BTC110 1640 2000 361 15 0 .757 .40 1.06 .168 .746 .269 2.47 .316 -.036 1 27 BTC001 1720 2000 281 12 0 .747 .48 1.69 .279 .723 .328 2.52 .334 -.043 1 28 BTC108A 1828 2000 173 7 0 .769 .55 1.32 .226 .619 .286 2.47 .327 -.069 1 29 BTC003A 1736 2000 265 11 0 .669 .45 1.34 .256 .848 .259 2.53 .348 -.056 4 30 BTC151B 1764 2000 237 10 0 .750 .36 .89 .175 .582 .370 2.85 .535 -.029 1 31 BTC114 1696 2000 305 13 0 .735 .50 3.10 .508 .883 .335 2.51 .304 -.042 1 32 BTC005A 1406 2000 595 24 0 .680 .40 .89 .138 .720 .199 2.69 .304 -.004 1 33 BTC016 1677 1839 163 6 0 .580 .41 1.38 .196 .600 .313 2.78 .423 -.064 1 34 BTC124 1650 1811 162 6 0 .558 .31 1.05 .181 .748 .353 2.60 .458 -.029 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 9969 409 0 .701 .55 3.97 .325 .768 .275 2.85 .363 -.035