[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run CPI Program COF 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 24441 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Capulin pied File of DATED series: cpi3.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1626 to 1998 373 years Continuous time span is 1626 to 1998 373 years Portion with two or more series is 1626 to 1998 373 years >> cpi082 1874 absent in 1 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.186 >> cpi081 1775 absent in 1 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.013 >> cpi081 1796 absent in 2 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.288 >> cpi042 1738 absent in 3 of 21 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.294 >> cpi102 1737 absent in 2 of 21 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.221 >> cpi032 1737 absent in 2 of 21 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.221 >> cpi032 1738 absent in 3 of 21 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.294 >> cpi031 1738 absent in 3 of 21 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.294 >> cpi031 1796 absent in 2 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.288 >> cpi031 1826 absent in 1 of 19 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.255 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 27 *C* *O* Master series 1626 1998 373 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5923 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5923 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .777 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .520 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 0 *A* *** Mean length of series 219.4 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) cpi061 4 absent rings: 1818 1822 1824 1880 cpi062 5 absent rings: 1818 1822 1861 1950 1963 cpi242 4 absent rings: 1682 1727 1730 1735 cpi241 6 absent rings: 1682 1685 1730 1763 1822 1925 cpi052 7 absent rings: 1666 1682 1685 1727 1730 1733 1763 cpi051 9 absent rings: 1789 1791 1818 1824 1842 1851 1861 1880 1888 cpi011 4 absent rings: 1842 1876 1880 1976 cpi012 3 absent rings: 1822 1842 1851 cpi071 14 absent rings: 1685 1727 1730 1733 1735 1752 1763 1818 1821 1822 1824 1851 1883 1939 cpi082 22 absent rings: 1666 1668 1682 1684 1685 1714 1715 1716 1727 1730 1772 1781 1789 1818 1822 1842 1851 1874 1880 1888 1939 1974 cpi081 17 absent rings: 1682 1684 1685 1715 1727 1728 1730 1733 1735 1775 1788 1789 1791 1796 1821 1822 1842 cpi042 8 absent rings: 1682 1685 1727 1730 1738 1763 1789 1791 cpi102 10 absent rings: 1727 1730 1735 1737 1781 1789 1818 1822 1851 1925 cpi021 4 absent rings: 1727 1730 1733 1735 cpi021 2 absent rings: 1851 1861 cpi022 6 absent rings: 1727 1728 1730 1735 1763 1772 cpi211 5 absent rings: 1925 1927 1939 1963 1974 cpi212 9 absent rings: 1822 1851 1923 1927 1936 1939 1956 1963 1974 cpi032 21 absent rings: 1654 1666 1682 1727 1728 1730 1733 1735 1737 1738 1742 1752 1763 1818 1822 1846 1851 1880 1883 1888 1908 cpi031 23 absent rings: 1654 1681 1682 1684 1685 1715 1727 1730 1733 1735 1738 1789 1791 1796 1821 1822 1824 1826 1842 1851 1880 1883 1888 cpx251 1 absent rings: 1822 cpi221 1 absent rings: 1939 cpi222 1 absent rings: 1939 186 absent rings 3.140% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . cpi091 1 1873 1998 126 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . cpi092 2 1865 1998 134 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================> . . . cpi061 3 1702 1924 223 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=========================> . . cpi062 4 1710 1970 261 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<======================>. . cpi232 5 1764 1998 235 . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================> . . . . cpi242 6 1659 1885 227 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. . cpi241 7 1660 1998 339 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========> . . . . . . . cpi072 8 1626 1726 101 . . . . . . . . . . . . <============> . . . . . . cpi052 9 1635 1769 135 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================>. . cpi051 10 1724 1998 275 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================>. . cpi011 11 1736 1998 263 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . . cpi012 12 1790 1954 165 . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================> . . cpi071 13 1643 1957 315 . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. . cpi082 14 1626 1998 373 . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================> . . . . cpi081 15 1626 1850 225 . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . . . cpi042 16 1654 1800 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================> . . cpi102 17 1699 1950 252 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========> . . . . . . cpi021 18 1694 1780 87 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . cpi021 19 1850 1998 149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======> . . . . . . cpi022 20 1694 1774 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===========================>. . cpi211 21 1710 1998 289 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. . cpi212 22 1709 1998 290 . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================> . . . cpi032 23 1637 1922 286 . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> . . . cpi031 24 1633 1915 283 . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. . . . . cpx251 25 1650 1840 191 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================>. . cpi221 26 1737 1998 262 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================>. . . cpi222 27 1737 1945 209 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1650 -1.353 8 1700 .231 14 1750 -.953 21 1800 .923 20 1850 .859 19 1651 -.199 8 1701 .638 14 1751 .905 21 1801 .037 19 1851 -2.427 18 9 1652 .278 8 1702 .898 15 1752 -1.549 21 2 1802 .089 19 1852 -.254 18 1653 .178 8 1703 -.229 15 1753 .729 21 1803 .226 19 1853 .480 18 1654 -4.452 9 2 1704 -1.278 15 1754 .637 21 1804 .892 19 1854 1.031 18 1655 .334 9 1705 -.383 15 1755 1.265 21 1805 -.716 19 1855 .289 18 1656 .659 9 1706 .455 15 1756 -.697 21 1806 -2.251 19 1856 -.527 18 1657 .990 9 1707 -.413 15 1757 -.108 21 1807 .889 19 1857 1.095 18 1658 .702 9 1708 -.789 15 1758 .883 21 1808 1.106 19 1858 1.238 18 1659 .917 10 1709 .601 16 1759 -.141 21 1809 -.146 19 1859 .809 18 1660 1.182 11 1710 .832 18 1760 -.394 21 1810 .066 19 1860 -1.212 18 1661 1.027 11 1711 .309 18 1761 1.142 21 1811 -.175 19 1861 -.987 18 3 1662 .639 11 1712 .853 18 1762 .254 21 1812 .242 19 1862 -.645 18 1663 -.018 11 1713 .692 18 1763 -2.729 21 6 1813 .580 19 1863 -.147 18 1664 -.134 11 1714 -.464 18 1 1764 .452 22 1814 .913 19 1864 .731 18 1665 .154 11 1715 -2.077 18 3 1765 -.960 22 1815 -.003 19 1865 -.568 19 1666 -3.881 11 3 1716 -.907 18 1 1766 .778 22 1816 1.326 19 1866 .766 19 1667 -1.227 11 1717 .295 18 1767 .600 22 1817 1.048 19 1867 1.158 19 1668 -1.391 11 1 1718 .008 18 1768 .414 22 1818 -1.524 19 7 1868 .742 19 1669 -.392 11 1719 .292 18 1769 .454 22 1819 .419 19 1869 1.193 19 1670 -.008 11 1720 .981 18 1770 -1.489 21 1820 .149 19 1870 -1.024 19 1671 .738 11 1721 .843 18 1771 .736 21 1821 -.679 19 3 1871 -.487 19 1672 -.181 11 1722 1.001 18 1772 -2.561 21 2 1822 -2.952 19 12 1872 .885 19 1673 1.468 11 1723 .621 18 1773 .001 21 1823 .373 19 1873 -.504 20 1674 .977 11 1724 .607 19 1774 .337 21 1824 -1.583 19 4 1874 -.186 20 1<< 1675 .212 11 1725 -.018 19 1775 -.013 20 1<< 1825 -.152 19 1875 .320 20 1626 .309 3 1676 .428 11 1726 1.252 19 1776 .567 20 1826 -.255 19 1<< 1876 -1.532 20 1 1627 -.596 3 1677 1.065 11 1727 -1.841 18 11 1777 -.457 20 1827 .717 19 1877 -.197 20 1628 -1.340 3 1678 1.269 11 1728 -.562 18 3 1778 .402 20 1828 .314 19 1878 .859 20 1629 .984 3 1679 -.522 11 1729 -.443 18 1779 1.006 20 1829 1.368 19 1879 -.306 20 1630 .693 3 1680 .086 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1780 -.826 20 1830 .664 19 1880 -2.579 20 6 1631 -.973 3 1681 -1.086 11 1 1731 -.243 18 1781 -.595 19 2 1831 -.468 19 1881 .795 20 1632 -.956 3 1682 -1.773 11 8 1732 .549 18 1782 .851 19 1832 1.028 19 1882 1.019 20 1633 1.316 4 1683 .168 11 1733 -1.179 18 6 1783 1.070 19 1833 .998 19 1883 -.666 20 3 1634 .171 4 1684 -1.164 11 3 1734 .912 18 1784 .885 19 1834 -.752 19 1884 .790 20 1635 .419 5 1685 -1.872 11 7 1735 -1.287 18 8 1785 1.171 19 1835 .451 19 1885 .309 20 1636 .453 5 1686 .259 11 1736 .841 19 1786 .794 19 1836 -.435 19 1886 -.604 19 1637 .898 6 1687 .759 11 1737 -.221 21 2<< 1787 -.026 19 1837 -.213 19 1887 1.014 19 1638 -1.778 6 1688 .314 11 1738 -.294 21 3<< 1788 -.539 19 1 1838 .026 19 1888 -1.751 19 4 1639 .609 6 1689 1.584 11 1739 .815 21 1789 -3.658 19 6 1839 1.201 19 1889 -.228 19 1640 -.137 6 1690 -.380 11 1740 .925 21 1790 .536 20 1840 .780 19 1890 .331 19 1641 -1.293 6 1691 .547 11 1741 -.223 21 1791 -1.938 20 4 1841 -.139 18 1891 .407 19 1642 1.132 6 1692 .864 11 1742 -.520 21 1 1792 .079 20 1842 -2.210 18 6 1892 .916 19 1643 .565 7 1693 .995 11 1743 1.094 21 1793 .407 20 1843 -.301 18 1893 .049 19 1644 .167 7 1694 -.689 13 1744 -.503 21 1794 .512 20 1844 .293 18 1894 1.407 19 1645 -.228 7 1695 .693 13 1745 .243 21 1795 -.003 20 1845 .188 18 1895 1.120 19 1646 .471 7 1696 -1.651 13 1746 .950 21 1796 -.288 20 2<< 1846 -1.703 18 1 1896 -1.197 19 1647 -.791 7 1697 1.035 13 1747 .975 21 1797 .519 20 1847 -.251 18 1897 .924 19 1648 -.076 7 1698 -.550 13 1748 -1.085 21 1798 -.551 20 1848 .338 18 1898 .877 19 1649 1.200 7 1699 -.654 14 1749 -.126 21 1799 .109 20 1849 .611 18 1899 -.197 19 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1900 .227 19 1950 -2.387 15 1 1901 -.888 19 1951 .344 14 1902 -1.440 19 1952 -1.301 14 1903 -1.541 19 1953 -.233 14 1904 -.745 19 1954 -.403 14 1905 .465 19 1955 1.348 13 1906 -.303 19 1956 -1.281 13 1 1907 .951 19 1957 .949 13 1908 -1.137 19 1 1958 .497 12 1909 1.158 19 1959 .074 12 1910 -1.039 19 1960 .209 12 1911 -.042 19 1961 .177 12 1912 .992 19 1962 .711 12 1913 .659 19 1963 -2.569 12 3 1914 1.105 19 1964 .026 12 1915 .137 19 1965 1.179 12 1916 -.891 18 1966 -1.037 12 1917 -.343 18 1967 .696 12 1918 .740 18 1968 -.349 12 1919 .825 18 1969 1.035 12 1920 .514 18 1970 1.036 12 1921 .873 18 1971 1.254 11 1922 .199 18 1972 -.017 11 1923 -1.109 17 1 1973 -.111 11 1924 -.329 17 1974 -4.152 11 3 1925 -1.426 16 3 1975 -.535 11 1926 .872 16 1976 -1.182 11 1 1927 -1.671 16 2 1977 -.014 11 1928 .951 16 1978 .695 11 1929 -.929 16 1979 1.169 11 1930 .257 16 1980 -.145 11 1931 .479 16 1981 -.274 11 1932 .761 16 1982 .267 11 1933 -.509 16 1983 .245 11 1934 -1.016 16 1984 -.505 11 1935 .208 16 1985 -.460 11 1936 -.605 16 1 1986 .890 11 1937 .833 16 1987 .716 11 1938 .239 16 1988 .484 11 1939 -2.465 16 6 1989 .491 11 1940 -.243 16 1990 -1.830 11 1941 .451 16 1991 .056 11 1942 1.022 16 1992 -.484 11 1943 -.050 16 1993 .879 11 1944 1.097 16 1994 -.608 11 1945 .106 16 1995 .959 11 1946 .076 15 1996 -.259 11 1947 1.127 15 1997 1.380 11 1948 .808 15 1998 -.853 11 1949 .839 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1650-e 1700-----A 1750-d 1800---------D 1850--------C 1900-----A 1950j 1651---a 1701-------C 1751--------D 1801----@ 1851j 1901-d 1951------A 1652-----A 1702--------D 1752f 1802----@ 1852---a 1902-f 1952-e 1653-----A 1703---a 1753-------C 1803-----A 1853------B 1903f 1953---a 1654r 1704-e 1754-------C 1804--------D 1854---------D 1904--c 1954---b 1655------A 1705---b 1755----------E 1805--c 1855-----A 1905------B 1955----------E 1656-------C 1706------B 1756--c 1806i 1856--b 1906---a 1956-e 1657---------D 1707--b 1757----@ 1807--------D 1857----------D 1907---------D 1957---------D 1658-------C 1708--c 1758--------D 1808----------D 1858----------E 1908-e 1958------B 1659---------D 1709-------B 1759---a 1809---a 1859--------C 1909----------E 1959----@ 1660----------E 1710--------C 1760---b 1810----@ 1860-e 1910-d 1960-----A 1661---------D 1711-----A 1761----------E 1811---a 1861-d 1911----@ 1961-----A 1662-------C 1712--------C 1762-----A 1812-----A 1862--c 1912---------D 1962-------C 1663----@ 1713-------C 1763k 1813-------B 1863---a 1913-------C 1963j 1664----a 1714--b 1764------B 1814---------D 1864-------C 1914----------D 1964----@ 1665-----A 1715h 1765-d 1815----@ 1865--b 1915-----A 1965----------E 1666p 1716-d 1766--------C 1816----------E 1866--------C 1916-d 1966-d 1667-e 1717-----A 1767-------B 1817---------D 1867----------E 1917---a 1967-------C 1668-f 1718----@ 1768------B 1818f 1868--------C 1918-------C 1968---a 1669---b 1719-----A 1769------B 1819------B 1869----------E 1919--------C 1969---------D 1670----@ 1720---------D 1770f 1820-----A 1870-d 1920------B 1970---------D 1671-------C 1721--------C 1771-------C 1821--c 1871--b 1921--------C 1971----------E 1672---a 1722---------D 1772j 1822l 1872--------D 1922-----A 1972----@ 1673----------F 1723-------B 1773----@ 1823------A 1873--b 1923-d 1973----@ 1674---------D 1724-------B 1774------A 1824f 1874---a 1924---a 1974q 1675-----A 1725----@ 1775----@ 1825---a 1875------A 1925-f 1975--b 1626-----A 1676------B 1726----------E 1776-------B 1826---a 1876f 1926--------C 1976-e 1627--b 1677---------D 1727g 1777--b 1827-------C 1877---a 1927g 1977----@ 1628-e 1678----------E 1728--b 1778------B 1828------A 1878--------C 1928---------D 1978-------C 1629---------D 1679--b 1729--b 1779---------D 1829----------E 1879---a 1929-d 1979----------E 1630-------C 1680----@ 1730j 1780-c 1830-------C 1880j 1930-----A 1980---a 1631-d 1681-d 1731---a 1781--b 1831--b 1881--------C 1931------B 1981---a 1632-d 1682g 1732-------B 1782--------C 1832---------D 1882---------D 1932--------C 1982-----A 1633----------E 1683-----A 1733-e 1783---------D 1833---------D 1883--c 1933--b 1983-----A 1634-----A 1684-e 1734---------D 1784--------D 1834--c 1884--------C 1934-d 1984--b 1635------B 1685g 1735-e 1785----------E 1835------B 1885-----A 1935-----A 1985--b 1636------B 1686-----A 1736--------C 1786--------C 1836--b 1886--b 1936--b 1986--------D 1637--------D 1687--------C 1737---a 1787----@ 1837---a 1887---------D 1937--------C 1987-------C 1638g 1688------A 1738---a 1788--b 1838----@ 1888g 1938-----A 1988------B 1639-------B 1689----------F 1739--------C 1789o 1839----------E 1889---a 1939j 1989------B 1640----a 1690---b 1740---------D 1790-------B 1840--------C 1890------A 1940---a 1990g 1641-e 1691-------B 1741---a 1791h 1841---a 1891------B 1941------B 1991----@ 1642----------E 1692--------C 1742--b 1792----@ 1842i 1892---------D 1942---------D 1992--b 1643-------B 1693---------D 1743----------D 1793------B 1843---a 1893----@ 1943----@ 1993--------D 1644-----A 1694--c 1744--b 1794------B 1844-----A 1894----------F 1944----------D 1994--b 1645---a 1695-------C 1745-----A 1795----@ 1845-----A 1895----------D 1945-----@ 1995---------D 1646------B 1696g 1746---------D 1796---a 1846g 1896-e 1946----@ 1996---a 1647--c 1697---------D 1747---------D 1797------B 1847---a 1897---------D 1947----------E 1997----------F 1648----@ 1698--b 1748-d 1798--b 1848------A 1898--------D 1948--------C 1998-c 1649----------E 1699--c 1749----a 1799-----@ 1849-------B 1899---a 1949--------C PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 cpi091 1873 1998 .67 .68 .78 .83 .77 2 cpi092 1865 1998 .76 .77 .81 .87 .85 3 cpi061 1702 1924 .71 .86 .91 .86 .81 .87 .88 .76 4 cpi062 1710 1970 .86 .87 .90 .85 .81 .90 .87 .83 .83 .73 5 cpi232 1764 1998 .56 .60 .68 .74 .68 .62 .58 .84 .85 6 cpi242 1659 1885 .66 .69 .62 .69 .74 .83 .75 .75 .77 7 cpi241 1660 1998 .71 .69 .68 .72 .73 .81 .82 .86 .91 .74 .62 .84 .70 8 cpi072 1626 1726 .76 .85 .65 .65 9 cpi052 1635 1769 .81 .80 .58 .65 .75 10 cpi051 1724 1998 .68 .67 .70 .75 .64 .55 .59 .69 .75 .78 .74 11 cpi011 1736 1998 .49 .63 .74 .65 .61 .71 .73 .66 .69 .75 12 cpi012 1790 1954 .80 .80 .83 .86 .85 .67 .64 13 cpi071 1643 1957 .83 .88 .77 .72 .83 .82 .83 .86 .90 .87 .85 .84 .84 14 cpi082 1626 1998 .59 .86 .64 .65 .87 .80 .77 .75 .71 .68 .68 .80 .89 .79 15 cpi081 1626 1850 .72 .84 .80 .84 .88 .87 .75 .74 .74 16 cpi042 1654 1800 .93 .87 .81 .87 .85 .86 17 cpi102 1699 1950 .48 .52 .79 .75 .75 .70 .72 .81 .75 .68 .70 18 cpi021 1694 1780 .63 .55 .82 .73 19 cpi021 1850 1998 .79 .83 .84 .86 .81 20 cpi022 1694 1774 .73 .69 .82 21 cpi211 1710 1998 .67 .72 .77 .78 .76 .68 .77 .82 .81 .91 .75 22 cpi212 1709 1998 .78 .78 .83 .86 .84 .83 .77 .76 .76 .83 .84 23 cpi032 1637 1922 .79 .86 .84 .79 .82 .81 .77 .69 .65 .69 .73 24 cpi031 1633 1915 .78 .87 .88 .86 .86 .81 .63 .73 .85 .87 .80 25 cpx251 1650 1840 .83 .78 .79 .75 .71 .74 .69 26 cpi221 1737 1998 .77 .79 .70 .61 .66 .70 .65 .68 .80 .78 27 cpi222 1737 1945 .76 .77 .78 .71 .74 .81 .76 .75 Av segment correlation .75 .83 .72 .71 .78 .77 .77 .74 .75 .77 .75 .74 .80 .78 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== cpi091 1873 to 1998 126 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .748) is: Lower 1883> -.010 1880> -.010 1990< -.007 1988< -.006 1956> -.006 1896> -.006 Higher 1974 .027 1963 .017 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1990 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi092 1865 to 1998 134 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .815) is: Lower 1876> -.009 1896< -.006 1872< -.005 1963> -.005 1966> -.004 1874> -.004 Higher 1974 .012 1950 .009 =================================================================================================================================== cpi061 1702 to 1924 223 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .829) is: Lower 1748> -.006 1708> -.006 1922< -.005 1736< -.004 1924> -.003 1920< -.003 Higher 1789 .010 1763 .007 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1818 -1.524 19 7 1822 -2.952 19 12 1824 -1.583 19 4 1880 -2.579 20 6 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1880 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi062 1710 to 1970 261 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .852) is: Lower 1956> -.010 1861< -.004 1970< -.004 1883< -.003 1748> -.003 1939> -.003 Higher 1963 .005 1789 .005 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1818 -1.524 19 7 1822 -2.952 19 12 1861 -.987 18 3 1950 -2.387 15 1 1963 -2.569 12 3 =================================================================================================================================== cpi232 1764 to 1998 235 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .696) is: Lower 1877< -.019 1910< -.012 1807< -.011 1989< -.007 1925> -.006 1781> -.005 Higher 1974 .022 1963 .007 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1877 -5.6 SD; 1910 -5.6 SD; 1974 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi242 1659 to 1885 227 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .733) is: Lower 1666> -.013 1838< -.012 1735< -.009 1767< -.007 1702< -.006 1798> -.005 Higher 1789 .011 1851 .008 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1682 -1.773 11 8 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1735 -1.287 18 8 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1666 +3.7 SD; 1838 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi241 1660 to 1998 339 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .753) is: Lower 1763< -.008 1984> -.006 1930< -.006 1708> -.004 1990> -.004 1838< -.004 Higher 1789 .006 1822 .006 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1682 -1.773 11 8 1685 -1.872 11 7 1730 -2.376 18 12 1763 -2.729 21 6 1822 -2.952 19 12 1925 -1.426 16 3 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1666 +3.5 SD; 1763 -8.8 SD; 1984 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi072 1626 to 1726 101 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .717) is: Lower 1632> -.028 1631> -.012 1698> -.011 1722< -.011 1643< -.009 1630< -.007 Higher 1654 .064 1666 .048 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1632 +4.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi052 1635 to 1769 135 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .793) is: Lower 1705< -.023 1641< -.008 1686< -.006 1711< -.006 1680> -.006 1652> -.005 Higher 1654 .034 1666 .015 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1666 -3.881 11 3 1682 -1.773 11 8 1685 -1.872 11 7 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1763 -2.729 21 6 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1705 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi051 1724 to 1998 275 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .732) is: Lower 1772> -.009 1938< -.006 1981< -.005 1883> -.004 1745< -.004 1881< -.004 Higher 1763 .008 1789 .008 [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1789 -3.658 19 6 1791 -1.938 20 4 1818 -1.524 19 7 1824 -1.583 19 4 1842 -2.210 18 6 1851 -2.427 18 9 1861 -.987 18 3 1880 -2.579 20 6 1888 -1.751 19 4 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1772 +3.7 SD; 1888 -4.8 SD; 1974 +3.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi011 1736 to 1998 263 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .665) is: Lower 1763> -.016 1925> -.009 1774< -.008 1747< -.007 1859< -.005 1800< -.004 Higher 1974 .008 1880 .008 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1842 -2.210 18 6 1876 -1.532 20 1 1880 -2.579 20 6 1976 -1.182 11 1 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1748 -5.7 SD; 1763 +5.2 SD; 1774 -4.9 SD; 1925 +3.3 SD; 1976 -5.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi012 1790 to 1954 165 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .797) is: Lower 1944< -.017 1950> -.008 1942< -.007 1888> -.007 1936< -.006 1927> -.004 Higher 1822 .012 1851 .011 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1822 -2.952 19 12 1842 -2.210 18 6 1851 -2.427 18 9 =================================================================================================================================== cpi071 1643 to 1957 315 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .846) is: Lower 1883< -.006 1647< -.005 1654> -.003 1724< -.003 1787< -.003 1823< -.003 Higher 1666 .006 1763 .004 [D] 14 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1685 -1.872 11 7 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1735 -1.287 18 8 1752 -1.549 21 2 1763 -2.729 21 6 1818 -1.524 19 7 1821 -.679 19 3 1822 -2.952 19 12 1824 -1.583 19 4 1851 -2.427 18 9 1883 -.666 20 3 1939 -2.465 16 6 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1883 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi082 1626 to 1998 373 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .775) is: Lower 1818< -.006 1874< -.005 1638> -.004 1990> -.004 1631< -.004 1899< -.004 Higher 1822 .005 1939 .005 [D] 22 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1666 -3.881 11 3 1668 -1.391 11 1 1682 -1.773 11 8 1684 -1.164 11 3 1685 -1.872 11 7 1714 -.464 18 1 1715 -2.077 18 3 1716 -.907 18 1 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1772 -2.561 21 2 1781 -.595 19 2 1789 -3.658 19 6 1818 -1.524 19 7 1822 -2.952 19 12 1842 -2.210 18 6 1851 -2.427 18 9 1874 -.186 20 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1880 -2.579 20 6 1888 -1.751 19 4 1939 -2.465 16 6 1974 -4.152 11 3 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1818 -6.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi081 1626 to 1850 225 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .790) is: Lower 1632< -.021 1775< -.008 1815< -.007 1654> -.006 1789> -.005 1796< -.005 Higher 1666 .012 1763 .006 [D] 17 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1682 -1.773 11 8 1684 -1.164 11 3 1685 -1.872 11 7 1715 -2.077 18 3 1727 -1.841 18 11 1728 -.562 18 3 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1735 -1.287 18 8 1775 -.013 20 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1788 -.539 19 1 1789 -3.658 19 6 1791 -1.938 20 4 1796 -.288 20 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1821 -.679 19 3 1822 -2.952 19 12 1842 -2.210 18 6 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1632 -5.8 SD; 1654 +3.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi042 1654 to 1800 147 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .884) is: Lower 1715< -.009 1748> -.008 1796< -.008 1738< -.004 1669> -.002 1694> -.002 Higher 1666 .012 1654 .004 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1682 -1.773 11 8 1685 -1.872 11 7 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1738 -.294 21 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1763 -2.729 21 6 1789 -3.658 19 6 1791 -1.938 20 4 =================================================================================================================================== cpi102 1699 to 1950 252 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .738) is: Lower 1939> -.011 1781< -.010 1715> -.009 1706< -.006 1904> -.005 1699> -.005 Higher 1789 .012 1851 .007 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1735 -1.287 18 8 1737 -.221 21 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1781 -.595 19 2 1789 -3.658 19 6 1818 -1.524 19 7 1822 -2.952 19 12 1851 -2.427 18 9 1925 -1.426 16 3 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1715 +3.3 SD; 1781 -5.1 SD; 1939 +3.6 SD; 1950 -6.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi021 1694 to 1780 87 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .732) is: Lower 1780> -.021 1708> -.016 1779< -.011 1748> -.009 1703> -.009 1775< -.008 Higher 1772 .026 1763 .021 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1735 -1.287 18 8 =================================================================================================================================== cpi021 1850 to 1998 149 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .811) is: Lower 1950> -.014 1888> -.007 1861< -.007 1976> -.007 1984< -.005 1937< -.004 Higher 1974 .020 1963 .009 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1851 -2.427 18 9 1861 -.987 18 3 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1950 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi022 1694 to 1774 81 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .818) is: Lower 1714> -.027 1715> -.022 1728< -.017 1748> -.010 1696> -.005 1700< -.005 Higher 1763 .018 1772 .013 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1727 -1.841 18 11 1728 -.562 18 3 1730 -2.376 18 12 1735 -1.287 18 8 1763 -2.729 21 6 1772 -2.561 21 2 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1714 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi211 1710 to 1998 289 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .761) is: Lower 1806< -.013 1984> -.007 1740< -.005 1765> -.005 1778< -.004 1867< -.004 Higher 1789 .009 1963 .006 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1925 -1.426 16 3 1927 -1.671 16 2 1939 -2.465 16 6 1963 -2.569 12 3 1974 -4.152 11 3 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1806 -7.6 SD; 1842 -4.7 SD; 1984 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi212 1709 to 1998 290 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .822) is: Lower 1888> -.007 1880< -.007 1910> -.004 1728> -.004 1929> -.004 1765> -.003 Higher 1974 .006 1822 .005 [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1822 -2.952 19 12 1851 -2.427 18 9 1923 -1.109 17 1 1927 -1.671 16 2 1936 -.605 16 1 1939 -2.465 16 6 1956 -1.281 13 1 1963 -2.569 12 3 1974 -4.152 11 3 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1851 -5.3 SD; 1880 -6.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi032 1637 to 1922 286 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .813) is: Lower 1708< -.005 1857< -.005 1921< -.005 1806> -.004 1848< -.004 1860> -.003 Higher 1666 .006 1822 .005 [D] 21 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1654 -4.452 9 2 1666 -3.881 11 3 1682 -1.773 11 8 1727 -1.841 18 11 1728 -.562 18 3 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1735 -1.287 18 8 1737 -.221 21 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1738 -.294 21 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1742 -.520 21 1 1752 -1.549 21 2 1763 -2.729 21 6 1818 -1.524 19 7 1822 -2.952 19 12 1846 -1.703 18 1 1851 -2.427 18 9 1880 -2.579 20 6 1883 -.666 20 3 1888 -1.751 19 4 1908 -1.137 19 1 =================================================================================================================================== cpi031 1633 to 1915 283 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .828) is: Lower 1796< -.008 1639< -.004 1770< -.004 1647> -.003 1788> -.003 1908< -.003 Higher 1654 .005 1851 .003 [D] 23 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1654 -4.452 9 2 1681 -1.086 11 1 1682 -1.773 11 8 1684 -1.164 11 3 1685 -1.872 11 7 1715 -2.077 18 3 1727 -1.841 18 11 1730 -2.376 18 12 1733 -1.179 18 6 1735 -1.287 18 8 1738 -.294 21 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1789 -3.658 19 6 1791 -1.938 20 4 1796 -.288 20 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1821 -.679 19 3 1822 -2.952 19 12 1824 -1.583 19 4 1826 -.255 19 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1842 -2.210 18 6 1851 -2.427 18 9 1880 -2.579 20 6 1883 -.666 20 3 1888 -1.751 19 4 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1715 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpx251 1650 to 1840 191 years Series 25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .768) is: Lower 1836< -.017 1650> -.016 1789> -.007 1703> -.005 1716> -.004 1806> -.003 Higher 1654 .025 1822 .010 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1822 -2.952 19 12 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1650 +3.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi221 1737 to 1998 262 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .728) is: Lower 1842> -.013 1805< -.010 1950> -.009 1881< -.008 1883> -.006 1908> -.006 Higher 1974 .013 1789 .011 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1939 -2.465 16 6 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1805 -4.8 SD; 1842 +3.9 SD; 1883 +3.1 SD; 1908 +3.1 SD; 1939 -6.0 SD; 1950 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== cpi222 1737 to 1945 209 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .755) is: Lower 1939< -.010 1806> -.007 1770> -.006 1908> -.005 1760> -.004 1936> -.004 Higher 1763 .011 1789 .010 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1939 -2.465 16 6 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1939 -8.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== [*] All segments correlate highest as dated with correlation with master series over .3281 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Capulin pied 08:58 Thu 29 Nov 2001 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 cpi091 1873 1998 126 5 0 .748 .56 1.60 .346 .837 .330 2.69 .467 -.079 1 2 cpi092 1865 1998 134 5 0 .815 .59 1.42 .262 .525 .361 2.92 .563 -.025 1 3 cpi061 1702 1924 223 8 0 .829 .45 1.15 .211 .462 .478 2.41 .370 -.015 1 4 cpi062 1710 1970 261 10 0 .852 .40 1.11 .199 .451 .522 2.42 .379 -.028 1 5 cpi232 1764 1998 235 9 0 .696 .52 1.54 .284 .813 .277 2.54 .345 -.014 2 6 cpi242 1659 1885 227 9 0 .733 .39 1.00 .191 .688 .375 2.70 .420 -.066 1 7 cpi241 1660 1998 339 13 0 .753 .37 1.01 .176 .552 .423 2.40 .272 -.015 1 8 cpi072 1626 1726 101 4 0 .717 .41 .81 .144 .344 .317 2.53 .336 -.046 1 9 cpi052 1635 1769 135 5 0 .793 .41 1.50 .305 .588 .671 2.58 .424 -.013 1 10 cpi051 1724 1998 275 11 0 .732 .34 1.22 .226 .452 .616 2.59 .416 -.042 1 11 cpi011 1736 1998 263 10 0 .665 .31 2.41 .257 .841 .453 2.56 .364 -.027 3 12 cpi012 1790 1954 165 7 0 .797 .26 .63 .118 .210 .521 2.68 .454 -.016 1 13 cpi071 1643 1957 315 13 0 .846 .22 1.01 .130 .446 .624 2.58 .381 -.007 1 14 cpi082 1626 1998 373 14 0 .775 .32 1.32 .235 .653 .683 2.60 .374 -.013 1 15 cpi081 1626 1850 225 9 0 .790 .28 .77 .189 .639 .653 2.60 .446 -.005 1 16 cpi042 1654 1800 147 6 0 .884 .19 .50 .111 .304 .772 2.52 .478 .040 1 17 cpi102 1699 1950 252 11 0 .738 .35 1.34 .225 .670 .540 2.70 .376 -.046 1 18 cpi021 1694 1780 87 4 0 .732 .38 1.03 .237 .392 .684 2.77 .639 -.121 1 19 cpi021 1850 1998 149 5 0 .811 .28 .74 .169 .417 .593 2.69 .495 .007 1 20 cpi022 1694 1774 81 3 0 .818 .30 .81 .188 .342 .754 2.78 .593 -.001 1 21 cpi211 1710 1998 289 11 0 .761 .39 1.52 .227 .709 .399 2.44 .335 -.046 1 22 cpi212 1709 1998 290 11 0 .822 .32 .90 .163 .578 .449 2.47 .358 -.042 1 23 cpi032 1637 1922 286 11 0 .813 .19 .79 .143 .451 .745 2.51 .445 -.016 1 24 cpi031 1633 1915 283 11 0 .828 .24 .77 .174 .448 .765 2.46 .437 -.034 1 25 cpx251 1650 1840 191 7 0 .768 .27 .66 .127 .495 .403 2.63 .415 .000 2 26 cpi221 1737 1998 262 10 0 .728 .38 1.15 .175 .572 .349 2.57 .357 -.038 3 27 cpi222 1737 1945 209 8 0 .755 .43 1.08 .170 .588 .280 2.41 .287 .006 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5923 230 0 .777 .34 2.41 .197 .555 .520 2.92 .396 -.025 - = [ COFECHA CPI COF ] = -