Junction of HWYS 51 and 97, Oregon - OR052 Additional Site Information James H. Speer and Thomas W. Swetnam Purpose of Collection: Ecology - insect outbreaks Detrend method: 40-year cubic smoothing spline Cores are stored at Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ. This site was collected for a pandora moth outbreak study. We were able to demonstrate that much of the variance in the tree cores was explained by the effects of pandora moth defoliation, therefore, this chronology would not be useful for climate reconstruction. We used a 40-year cubic smoothing spline on the cores to remove long-term climate fluctuations and age trends. References: Speer, J.H. 1997. A dendrochronological record of pandora moth (Coloradia pandora, Blake) outbreaks in central Oregon. MS thesis, The Univeristy of Arizona. Tucson, 159pp. Speer, J.H., Swetnam, T.W., Wickman, B.E., and Youngblood, A., 2000. Changes in pandora moth outbreak dynamics during the past 622 years. Submitted to Ecology. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : OR052.CRN Measurement file name : OR052.RWL Date checked : 29MAR05 Checked by : H. ADAMS AND J. LUKAS Beginning year : 1419 Ending year : 1995 Principal investigators: James H. Speer and Thomas W. Swetnam Site name : Junction of HWYS 51 and 97 Site location : Oregon Species information : PIPO PONDEROSA PINE Latitude : +4319 Longitude : -12145 Elevation : 1420M Series intercorrelation: 0.440 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.209 Avg standard deviation : 0.402 Avg autocorrelation : 0.819 Number dated series : 27 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 101 Pct problem segments : 24.16 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or052.rwl 13:12 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 JCT01A 1737 1995 .51 .50 .60 .64 .65 .75 .66 .60 2 JCT01B 1637 1995 .50 .54 .44 .34 .44 .50 .35 .41 .57 .44 .34B .67 3 JCT02A 1674 1995 .22B .22B .29B .29B .56 .64 .50 .43 .49 .52 .71 4 JCT02B 1664 1995 .37B .29B .38 .51 .58 .62 .50 .51 .53 .45 .71 5 JCT03A 1507 1995 .22B .37 .50 .41 .50 .66 .61 .39B .19B .29B .52 .45 .38 .50 .62 .50 .35 6 JCT03B 1419 1995 .43 .47 .48 .48 .30B .35B .30B .42 .53 .46 .50 .27B .41B .46 .25B .42 .40 .44 .49 -.03B 7 JCT03C 1470 1995 .37 .35 .41 .34 .27B .17B .48 .65 .51 .33 .10B .19B .45 .47 .58 .44 .43 .44 .18A 8 JCT04A 1512 1995 .17B .24B .31A .33A .33A .34B .24A .25A .45 .50 .51 .42 .52 .52 .51 .44 .21B 9 JCT04B 1525 1995 .34 .43 .52 .52 .41 .32A .17B .32A .62 .46 .35B .56 .50 .68 .56 .36 10 JCT05A 1590 1995 .25B .33B .33B .38 .39 .36 .47 .30B .12B .48 .49 .49 .56 .46 11 JCT05B 1555 1995 .48 .52 .38 .38 .37 .40 .46 .60 .55 .39 .19B .23B .59 .58 .55 12 JCT06A 1505 1980 .39 .50 .60 .35 .29B .43 .48 .35 .33B .54 .53 .29B .21B .41 .50 .45 .60 13 JCT06B 1619 1995 .67 .70 .72 .72 .51 .49 .51 .49 .59 .61 .54 .49 .73 14 JCT07A 1815 1995 .41 .37 .43B .43 .44 15 JCT07B 1541 1995 .57 .59 .60 .59 .40 .46 .50 .37 .56 .53 .29A-.04B .18B .35 .26B .08B 16 JCT07C 1586 1779 .52 .51 .58 .69 .58 .43 .42 .39 17 JCT08A 1577 1995 .49 .48 .60 .70 .41 .38 .60 .63 .47 .33 .46 .72 .73 .58 18 JCT08B 1563 1995 .43 .40 .37 .40 .49 .31A .27A .32B .36B .27B .20B .30A .40 .32A .39 19 JCT09A 1849 1995 .59 .63 .64 .72 20 JCT09B 1507 1995 .41 .47 .53 .47 .50 .61 .58 .49 .48 .52 .61 .53 .33 .31B .35 .44 .40 21 JCT09C 1487 1839 .24B .32B .15B .43 .38 .33B .42 .48 .37 .33 .57 .67 .46 .29B 22 JCT10A 1501 1995 .42B .56 .46 .47 .52 .44 .46 .37 .26A .35 .46 .31B .22B .43 .45 .35 .21B 23 JCT10B 1437 1995 .31B .22B .25B .38 .35 .54 .41 .42 .52 .44 .52 .41 .24A .27A .24A .17B .36 .54 .54 .39 24 JCT11A 1529 1995 .06B .22B .44 .47B .42 .35 .33B .39 .25A .23A .35 .43 .52 .54 .40 .17B 25 JCT11B 1766 1995 .44 .43 .52 .57 .53 .48 .41 26 JCT12A 1562 1995 .42 .41 .54 .53 .50 .45 .32A .53 .49 .31A .47 .41 .61 .63 .37B 27 JCT12B 1675 1995 .49 .44 .41 .44B .23B .36 .49 .61 .60 .17B Av segment correlation .37 .35 .33 .36 .35 .44 .41 .46 .49 .47 .40 .35 .44 .48 .39 .39 .45 .53 .49 .42 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or052.rwl 13:12 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1925 1950 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 JCT01A 1737 1995 .63 .72 2 JCT01B 1637 1995 .67 .70 3 JCT02A 1674 1995 .62 .64 4 JCT02B 1664 1995 .68 .69 5 JCT03A 1507 1995 .57 .74 6 JCT03B 1419 1995 .01B .24A 7 JCT03C 1470 1995 .37 .50 8 JCT04A 1512 1995 .31A .51 9 JCT04B 1525 1995 .63 .51 10 JCT05A 1590 1995 .58 .66 11 JCT05B 1555 1995 .54 .53 12 JCT06A 1505 1980 .55 .53 13 JCT06B 1619 1995 .71 .67 14 JCT07A 1815 1995 .46 .61 15 JCT07B 1541 1995 .16B .27B 17 JCT08A 1577 1995 .63 .71 18 JCT08B 1563 1995 .53 .67 19 JCT09A 1849 1995 .67 .67 20 JCT09B 1507 1995 .41 .50 22 JCT10A 1501 1995 .46 .51 23 JCT10B 1437 1995 .40 .41 24 JCT11A 1529 1995 .27A .40 25 JCT11B 1766 1995 .43 .31A 26 JCT12A 1562 1995 .54 .57 27 JCT12B 1675 1995 .17B .30A Av segment correlation .48 .54 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: or052.rwl 13:12 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 JCT01A 1737 1995 259 10 0 .605 .56 1.40 .235 .710 .262 2.78 .372 .035 1 2 JCT01B 1637 1995 359 14 1 .492 .99 3.97 .563 .884 .194 2.71 .386 -.019 1 3 JCT02A 1674 1995 322 13 4 .487 1.26 2.82 .471 .695 .221 2.72 .307 .003 1 4 JCT02B 1664 1995 332 13 2 .537 .89 3.07 .506 .856 .228 2.41 .245 .001 1 5 JCT03A 1507 1995 489 19 4 .468 .81 2.31 .294 .808 .165 2.70 .402 -.014 1 6 JCT03B 1419 1995 577 22 9 .369 .72 1.98 .317 .794 .221 2.66 .327 -.013 1 7 JCT03C 1470 1995 526 21 5 .401 .82 2.25 .352 .833 .187 2.66 .387 -.031 1 8 JCT04A 1512 1995 484 19 10 .378 .72 2.83 .469 .862 .248 2.59 .334 -.010 1 9 JCT04B 1525 1995 471 18 4 .451 .73 2.74 .448 .866 .235 2.62 .397 .006 3 10 JCT05A 1590 1995 406 16 5 .426 .77 1.53 .238 .711 .184 2.69 .419 -.024 1 11 JCT05B 1555 1995 441 17 2 .455 .78 2.40 .408 .814 .245 2.61 .343 -.050 2 12 JCT06A 1505 1980 476 19 4 .431 .73 2.64 .366 .841 .228 2.52 .330 .000 1 13 JCT06B 1619 1995 377 15 0 .590 .52 1.50 .253 .796 .227 2.39 .220 .009 1 14 JCT07A 1815 1995 181 7 1 .460 .74 1.39 .171 .511 .172 2.50 .345 .006 1 15 JCT07B 1541 1995 455 18 7 .370 .87 2.77 .432 .874 .202 2.44 .259 -.010 1 16 JCT07C 1586 1779 194 8 0 .522 .90 2.68 .364 .731 .222 2.49 .360 -.030 1 17 JCT08A 1577 1995 419 16 0 .542 .43 1.52 .209 .877 .224 2.55 .300 -.019 1 18 JCT08B 1563 1995 433 17 8 .389 .48 1.27 .189 .804 .198 2.70 .311 -.022 1 19 JCT09A 1849 1995 147 6 0 .619 .51 .96 .140 .289 .257 2.49 .388 -.017 1 20 JCT09B 1507 1995 489 19 1 .466 .83 3.97 .672 .919 .215 2.65 .411 -.002 1 21 JCT09C 1487 1839 353 14 5 .372 .92 3.36 .674 .907 .222 2.57 .403 -.025 3 22 JCT10A 1501 1995 495 19 5 .394 .75 3.17 .460 .892 .194 2.51 .306 .006 1 23 JCT10B 1437 1995 559 22 7 .352 .79 3.05 .488 .908 .195 2.62 .340 -.016 1 24 JCT11A 1529 1995 467 18 8 .354 .75 3.33 .539 .945 .169 2.68 .360 .032 1 25 JCT11B 1766 1995 230 9 1 .429 .49 1.08 .120 .602 .165 2.77 .426 .009 1 26 JCT12A 1562 1995 434 17 3 .493 .91 4.84 .760 .872 .189 2.59 .358 .014 1 27 JCT12B 1675 1995 321 12 5 .381 .52 1.15 .172 .678 .211 2.50 .303 .000 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 10696 418 101 .440 .76 4.84 .402 .819 .209 2.78 .345 -.007