Blue Jay Spring, Oregon - OR055 Additional Site Information James H. Speer and Thomas W. Swetnam Purpose of Collection: Ecology - insect outbreaks Detrend method: 40-year cubic smoothing spline Cores are stored at Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ. This site was collected for a pandora moth outbreak study. We were able to demonstrate that much of the variance in the tree cores was explained by the effects of pandora moth defoliation, therefore, this chronology would not be useful for climate reconstruction. We used a 40-year cubic smoothing spline on the cores to remove long-term climate fluctuations and age trends. References: Speer, J.H. 1997. A dendrochronological record of pandora moth (Coloradia pandora, Blake) outbreaks in central Oregon. MS thesis, The Univeristy of Arizona. Tucson, 159pp. Speer, J.H., Swetnam, T.W., Wickman, B.E., and Youngblood, A., 2000. Changes in pandora moth outbreak dynamics during the past 622 years. Submitted to Ecology. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : OR055.CRN Measurement file name : OR055.RWL Date checked : 29MAR05 Checked by : H. ADAMS AND J. LUKAS Beginning year : 1423 Ending year : 1995 Principal investigators: James H. Speer and Thomas W. Swetnam Site name : Blue Jay Spring Site location : Oregon Species information : PIPO PONDEROSA PINE Latitude : +4255 Longitude : -12132 Elevation : 1490M Series intercorrelation: 0.506 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.229 Avg standard deviation : 0.581 Avg autocorrelation : 0.826 Number dated series : 28 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 48 Pct problem segments : 14.33 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or055.rwl 13:13 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BJS01A 1687 1995 .45 .60 .62 .42 .30A .40 .20B .21B .41 2 BJS01B 1761 1995 .47 .41 .60 .35 .39 .49 3 BJS01C 1738 1995 .65 .67 .64 .60 .38 .37B .44 4 BJS02A 1573 1995 .40B .42 .61 .62 .26B .15B .46B .74 .66 .48 .34 .15B .17B .30B 5 BJS02C 1570 1694 .53 .47 .48 .64 .64 6 BJS02B 1710 1995 .66 .57 .46 .28B .36B .38 .26A .43 7 BJS03A 1765 1995 .51 .57 .51 .32A .61 .49 8 BJS03B 1786 1995 .40 .23B .13B .49 .63 9 BJS04A 1568 1995 .38 .38 .44 .56 .71 .69 .68 .58 .41 .35 .36 .30A .46 .40B 10 BJS04B 1752 1995 .37B .61 .41 .24A .40 .35 11 BJS05A 1688 1995 .53 .71 .61 .48 .55 .64 .63 .31B .19B 12 BJS05B 1706 1995 .73 .47 .35 .35 .39 .41 .24A .31A 13 BJS06A 1674 1995 .33 .38 .52 .62 .70 .58 .67 .60 .30B .52 14 BJS06B 1741 1995 .66 .55 .40 .59 .56 .54 .53 15 BJS07A 1424 1995 .57 .56 .61 .85 .83 .59 .34 .50 .58 .69 .69 .54 .52 .67 .61 .61 .72 .49 .48 .61 16 BJS07B 1423 1995 .57 .56 .61 .87 .85 .61 .39 .51 .49 .58 .59 .44 .44 .69 .64 .54 .65 .54 .61 .67 17 BJS08A 1781 1995 .62 .71 .49 .23B .45 18 BJS08B 1694 1995 .59 .57 .73 .77 .55 .59 .56 .43 .49 19 BJS09A 1803 1995 .46 .52 .60 .61 20 BJS09B 1567 1995 .35 .27B .26A .53 .65 .53 .41 .40 .52 .53 .61 .59 .64 .57 21 BJS10A 1724 1995 .58 .59 .51 .49 .57 .59 .52 .50 22 BJS10B 1734 1995 .56 .40 .45 .53 .44 .49 .65 23 BJS11A 1700 1995 .43 .66 .68 .44 .51 .63 .53 .46 24 BJS11B 1717 1995 .68 .71 .58 .37 .50 .61 .32A .33B 25 BJS12A 1551 1995 .38 .64 .49 .53 .71 .71 .66 .68 .67 .51 .57 .54 .54 .62 26 BJS12B 1558 1921 .56 .65 .62 .71 .66 .64 .48 .53 .66 .45 .45 .36 .45 .44 27 BJS13 1771 1995 .75 .70 .69 .55 .61 .64 28 BJS13B 1767 1995 .76 .68 .72 .43 .39 .55 Av segment correlation .57 .56 .61 .86 .84 .60 .42 .48 .50 .61 .58 .51 .57 .62 .57 .49 .53 .44 .43 .48 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or055.rwl 13:13 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1900 1925 1950 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 BJS01A 1687 1995 .35 .30A .31A 2 BJS01B 1761 1995 .36 .21B .46 3 BJS01C 1738 1995 .34 .34 .52 4 BJS02A 1573 1995 .41 .29A .27A 6 BJS02B 1710 1995 .59 .56 .26B 7 BJS03A 1765 1995 .37 .41 .42 8 BJS03B 1786 1995 .50 .32A .59 9 BJS04A 1568 1995 .34 .42 .64 10 BJS04B 1752 1995 .45 .51 .42 11 BJS05A 1688 1995 .36B .40 .59 12 BJS05B 1706 1995 .49 .29B .50 13 BJS06A 1674 1995 .70 .64 .72 14 BJS06B 1741 1995 .51 .54 .68 15 BJS07A 1424 1995 .70 .43 .56 16 BJS07B 1423 1995 .29A .31B .56 17 BJS08A 1781 1995 .56 .52 .69 18 BJS08B 1694 1995 .62 .43 .63 19 BJS09A 1803 1995 .43 .40 .44 20 BJS09B 1567 1995 .29B .38 .57 21 BJS10A 1724 1995 .36B .48 .67 22 BJS10B 1734 1995 .63 .40 .44 23 BJS11A 1700 1995 .27A .03B .24B 24 BJS11B 1717 1995 .54 .62 .76 25 BJS12A 1551 1995 .56 .25A .38 27 BJS13 1771 1995 .51 .44 .52 28 BJS13B 1767 1995 .65 .60 .49 Av segment correlation .47 .40 .51 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: or055.rwl 13:13 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 BJS01A 1687 1995 309 12 5 .423 .58 1.44 .230 .790 .213 2.42 .329 -.014 1 2 BJS01B 1761 1995 235 9 1 .463 .61 1.34 .222 .771 .208 2.52 .351 -.007 1 3 BJS01C 1738 1995 258 10 1 .531 1.02 2.20 .329 .618 .225 2.60 .389 .015 1 4 BJS02A 1573 1995 423 17 9 .366 .85 3.08 .451 .864 .202 2.66 .327 .011 1 5 BJS02C 1570 1694 125 5 0 .537 1.38 3.96 .609 .743 .236 2.88 .483 .019 1 6 BJS02B 1710 1995 286 11 4 .412 .77 1.58 .247 .668 .222 2.63 .398 -.003 1 7 BJS03A 1765 1995 231 9 1 .446 1.53 5.35 .876 .838 .237 2.57 .458 .010 1 8 BJS03B 1786 1995 210 8 3 .444 1.66 5.61 1.201 .900 .199 2.66 .465 .030 1 9 BJS04A 1568 1995 428 17 2 .477 .92 2.86 .571 .862 .249 2.53 .335 .017 2 10 BJS04B 1752 1995 244 9 2 .441 .57 1.81 .293 .813 .246 2.61 .388 .043 2 11 BJS05A 1688 1995 308 12 3 .476 1.35 4.45 .898 .879 .239 2.52 .375 -.026 2 12 BJS05B 1706 1995 290 11 3 .418 1.40 3.78 .700 .800 .238 2.74 .458 .016 2 13 BJS06A 1674 1995 322 13 1 .554 1.14 7.22 1.128 .944 .205 2.67 .394 .027 1 14 BJS06B 1741 1995 255 10 0 .568 .58 1.62 .296 .815 .240 2.60 .385 .006 1 15 BJS07A 1424 1995 572 23 0 .603 .67 1.80 .282 .779 .249 2.56 .352 .017 1 16 BJS07B 1423 1995 573 23 2 .557 .77 2.30 .348 .800 .244 2.54 .366 .012 2 17 BJS08A 1781 1995 215 8 1 .548 .69 1.77 .265 .600 .284 2.67 .491 .048 1 18 BJS08B 1694 1995 302 12 0 .574 .65 1.60 .254 .732 .231 2.52 .320 .019 1 19 BJS09A 1803 1995 193 7 0 .480 .68 1.18 .251 .839 .184 2.41 .293 .051 1 20 BJS09B 1567 1995 429 17 3 .478 .78 3.14 .582 .942 .222 2.62 .390 -.024 1 21 BJS10A 1724 1995 272 11 1 .544 .74 1.80 .280 .759 .217 2.57 .423 .005 1 22 BJS10B 1734 1995 262 10 0 .500 .91 1.84 .317 .613 .247 2.58 .438 .008 1 23 BJS11A 1700 1995 296 11 3 .460 1.33 4.16 .957 .924 .233 2.57 .347 -.014 4 24 BJS11B 1717 1995 279 11 2 .557 1.37 2.99 .648 .843 .222 2.58 .353 -.021 1 25 BJS12A 1551 1995 445 17 1 .526 .92 4.51 1.016 .945 .250 2.65 .357 -.037 1 26 BJS12B 1558 1921 364 14 0 .559 1.09 4.60 .971 .935 .241 2.53 .334 -.006 1 27 BJS13 1771 1995 225 9 0 .598 1.73 5.16 1.171 .946 .182 2.64 .410 .012 1 28 BJS13B 1767 1995 229 9 0 .580 1.75 5.05 1.153 .937 .183 2.41 .312 .012 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 8580 335 48 .506 .97 7.22 .581 .826 .229 2.88 .376 .006