Frederick Butte, Oregon (Recollection) - OR060 Additional Site Information Dave Meko Chronology for study of hydrologic drought. Ring-width series culled from larger set of files on strength of intercorrelation (COFECHA) and internal consistency of low-frequency variations. Chronology from merged collections of (1) Meko and Basin in 1997, and Hal Fritts' group in 1983. Ringwidths detrended by ratio method (Cook et al. 1990). Automated choice of dtrending curves. Order of preference: (1) monotonic non-increasing cubic smoothing spline, (2) least-squares-fit straight line of negative slope, and (3) horizontal line at mean of ring width. The horizontal line is equivalent to no detrending. Spline fit by trial and error, incrementally increasing the spline parameter (Cook and Peters 1981) while monitoring first and second derivatives of the fitted spline at each iteration. Spline initially set very stiff (approximately straight line), and allowed to become more flexible as spline parameter increased. Iteration stopped when either of two conditions on first two derivatives of fitted spline violated: (1) first derivative (slope) must be negative everywhere, and (2) second derivative (curvature) must be positive throughout the second half of the series. If most flexible possible spline satisfying the above conditions so stiff that the amplitude of frequency response at a wavelength twice the series length is less than 0.5, series detrended with a least-squares-fit straight line. If slope of the fitted spline or straight line positive, a horizontal line at the ring-width mean used as the "age trend" (effectively no detrending). Plots of ring width and overlaid selected detrending curves viewed subsequently for optional manual overide of automatic curve selections or manual specification of fit period less than entire series length. Final selected detrending curves listed in table below. After the trend line fit, core indices computed as the ratio of ringwidth to trend line. Core indices then averaged to get tree indices, and tree indices averaged to get site index, or standard chronology. Averaging of tree indices for a given year by arithmetic mean if fewer than 6 trees; otherwise by bi-weight mean. Residual chronology computed in same way as standard chronology except that autoregressive residuals of core indices used in place of core indices. The "sample size" listed in attached ".crn" files is the number of TREES sampled each year, not the number of cores. N Core Fit Period Curve fit Persistence 1 FRE01B 1401 1982 CS(728 yr) AR(3) 0.26 2 FRE01C 1375 1982 CS(699 yr) AR(3) 0.26 3 FRE02A 1354 1982 CS(660 yr) AR(3) 0.27 4 FRE08B 1386 1982 CS(842 yr) AR(3) 0.20 5 FRE08C 1290 1982 CS(1289 yr) AR(3) 0.25 6 FRE15A 1534 1948 SL AR(3) 0.22 7 FRE15B 1747 1982 SL AR(2) 0.25 8 FRE24A 1533 1982 CS(450 yr) AR(3) 0.15 9 FRE24B 1576 1982 CS(590 yr) AR(3) 0.21 10 FRE34V 1096 1647 CS(541 yr) AR(1) 0.02 11 FRE34Z 1163 1667 CS(662 yr) AR(1) 0.03 12 FRE39X 1447 1663 HL AR(3) 0.58 13 FRE42Y 1339 1637 SL AR(2) 0.18 14 FRE43A 1597 1982 CS(687 yr) AR(2) 0.17 15 FRB21c2 1011 1350 CS(289 yr) AR(1) 0.08 16 FRB25c1 870 1270 CS(754 yr) AR(3) 0.07 17 FRB28B 870 1290 CS(316 yr) AR(2) 0.13 18 FRB19A 870 1138 CS(210 yr) AR(1) 0.06 19 FRB18B 912 1630 CS(777 yr) AR(3) 0.21 20 FRB28A 870 1324 CS(287 yr) AR(1) 0.05 21 FRB27A 983 1623 CS(449 yr) AR(3) 0.06 22 FRB21C 1106 1530 CS(489 yr) AR(3) 0.13 23 FRB29A 936 1599 SL AR(3) 0.07 24 FRB1B 1798 1996 CS(378 yr) AR(2) 0.33 25 FRB20A 1759 1996 HL AR(2) 0.15 26 FRB29B 1697 1996 HL AR(3) 0.28 27 FRB2B 1771 1996 CS(221 yr) AR(2) 0.09 28 FRB30B1 1419 1624 HL AR(2) 0.17 29 FRB30B2 1631 1996 HL AR(2) 0.22 30 FRB9A 1753 1996 SL AR(2) 0.20 31 SCJ4A 1039 1493 CS(387 yr) AR(3) 0.11 32 FRB10A 1175 1996 CS(617 yr) AR(3) 0.31 33 FRB10B 1176 1920 CS(559 yr) AR(3) 0.28 34 FRB14B 1425 1830 CS(390 yr) AR(3) 0.18 35 FRB7A 1178 1995 CS(1104 yr) AR(3) 0.26 36 FRB7B 1178 1996 CS(1188 yr) AR(3) 0.29 Fit Period = period of ring width used in curve fitting * = subset of full period of ring width in .rwl file Curve Fit = type of model used to detrend ring width NE=modified negative exponential SL=least-square-fit straight line HL=horizontal line at mean of ring width for fit period CS=cubic smoothing spline (wavelength of 50% frequency reponse in parentheses) Persistence = autoregressive prewhitening information AR(q) = order q of autoregressive model fit to core index nn = decimal proportion of core-index variance due to persistence; computed as 1-R, where R is the ratio of variance of residual index to variance of standard index References: Cook, E.R., Briffa, K., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V. 1990. Tree- ring standardization and growth-trend estimation. In: Methods of dendrochronology, applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Press, Boston, 104-123. Cook, E.R., Peters, K., 1981. The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree Ring Bulletin, 41, p. 45-53 Meko, D.M., M. D. Therrell, C. H. Baisan, and M. K. Hughes, 2001, Sacramento River Flow Reconstructed to A.D. 869 From Tree Rings, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.37, No.4, August 2001. Meko, D. M., 2001. Reconstructed Sacramento River system runoff from tree rings, Report prepared for the California Department of Water Resources under Agreement No. B81923-SAP # 4600000193. Available from: California Department of Water Resources, P.O. Box 942836, Room 1601, Sacramento, CA 94236-0001. 63 pp. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : OR060.CRN Measurement file name : OR060.RWL Date checked : 29MAR05 Checked by : H. ADAMS AND J. LUKAS Beginning year : 870 Ending year : 1996 Principal investigators: MEKO, BAISAN, ADAMS, HOLMES, ROSE, WU Site name : FREDERICK BUTTE Site location : OREGON Species information : JUOC WESTERN JUNIPER Latitude : +4335 Longitude : -12027 Elevation : 1494M Series intercorrelation: 0.817 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.500 Avg standard deviation : 0.359 Avg autocorrelation : 0.561 Number dated series : 36 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 1 Pct problem segments : 0.15 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: + 13:15 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 850 875 900 925 950 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 899 924 949 974 999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 FRE08C 1290 1982 .68 .73 .77 10 FRE34V 1096 1647 .87 .83 .90 .92 .93 .94 .92 .88 .87 .91 .93 11 FRE34Z 1163 1667 .93 .93 .94 .93 .88 .89 .89 .88 13 FRE42Y 1339 1637 .13B 15 FRB21c2 1011 1350 .84 .93 .92 .85 .84 .94 .93 .91 .87 .89 .93 .91 .79 .77 16 FRB25c1 870 1270 .76 .76 .78 .79 .85 .68 .59 .75 .82 .70 .73 .80 .74 .79 .80 .69 17 FRB28B 870 1290 .91 .90 .91 .91 .90 .89 .85 .90 .92 .88 .89 .91 .82 .83 .86 .84 .62 18 FRB19A 870 1138 .88 .87 .88 .93 .90 .87 .83 .89 .93 .88 .84 19 FRB18B 912 1630 .86 .84 .77 .82 .91 .92 .87 .81 .67 .67 .85 .93 .92 .90 .93 .92 .86 .78 20 FRB28A 870 1324 .90 .89 .92 .90 .88 .91 .93 .92 .88 .89 .92 .92 .87 .87 .88 .89 .85 .84 21 FRB27A 983 1623 .86 .88 .95 .94 .90 .91 .94 .94 .95 .93 .91 .91 .87 .82 .86 22 FRB21C 1106 1530 .94 .97 .93 .85 .88 .92 .86 .86 .89 .90 23 FRB29A 936 1599 .67 .72 .91 .92 .92 .88 .83 .93 .94 .89 .89 .90 .87 .82 .82 .88 .92 31 SCJ4A 1039 1493 .70 .68 .66 .85 .86 .69 .74 .83 .77 .71 .82 .86 .80 32 FRB10A 1175 1996 .61 .73 .73 .72 .90 .89 .87 33 FRB10B 1176 1920 .63 .74 .71 .71 .85 .82 .82 35 FRB7A 1178 1995 .70 .52 .53 .70 .79 .85 .82 36 FRB7B 1178 1996 .70 .54 .46 .62 .71 .75 .76 Av segment correlation .86 .86 .87 .84 .83 .85 .85 .87 .87 .83 .85 .88 .86 .82 .82 .80 .80 .84 .84 .79 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: + 13:15 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 FRE01B 1401 1982 .82 .74 .73 .75 .72 .77 .76 .68 .81 .84 .73 .74 .79 .78 .81 .86 .86 .82 2 FRE01C 1375 1982 .75 .81 .76 .73 .75 .72 .77 .78 .72 .83 .84 .75 .76 .78 .75 .80 .87 .86 .80 3 FRE02A 1354 1982 .66 .71 .81 .84 .77 .74 .88 .88 .87 .88 .89 .88 .88 .89 .88 .84 .86 .75 .77 .81 4 FRE08B 1386 1982 .85 .87 .84 .79 .79 .80 .89 .88 .81 .81 .75 .75 .84 .85 .66 .65 .73 .81 .84 5 FRE08C 1290 1982 .84 .83 .83 .80 .79 .80 .81 .90 .91 .86 .85 .70 .77 .88 .81 .71 .75 .79 .85 .85 6 FRE15A 1534 1948 .86 .86 .82 .82 .85 .89 .87 .81 .72 .67 .71 .77 .81 7 FRE15B 1747 1982 .76 .76 .85 .82 .74 8 FRE24A 1533 1982 .81 .84 .85 .84 .89 .91 .92 .86 .73 .75 .82 .82 .73 9 FRE24B 1576 1982 .80 .84 .89 .88 .88 .92 .85 .80 .81 .84 .78 10 FRE34V 1096 1647 .90 .89 .92 .91 .90 .89 .80 .79 .91 .91 .91 11 FRE34Z 1163 1667 .90 .90 .91 .89 .83 .84 .87 .88 .90 .89 .87 .86 12 FRE39X 1447 1663 .70 .72 .82 .83 .77 .81 .86 .84 .84 13 FRE42Y 1339 1637 .57 .68 .74 .70 .70 .78 .84 .85 .84 .76 .69 14 FRE43A 1597 1982 .83 .81 .78 .80 .81 .70 .65 .66 .84 .79 .54 19 FRB18B 912 1630 .75 .76 .87 .86 .81 .88 .88 .88 .90 .89 .88 21 FRB27A 983 1623 .91 .89 .89 .91 .88 .83 .85 .92 .84 .80 22 FRB21C 1106 1530 .93 .88 .87 .87 .81 .85 .89 23 FRB29A 936 1599 .80 .76 .90 .89 .83 .89 .86 .86 .84 24 FRB1B 1798 1996 .91 .90 .86 25 FRB20A 1759 1996 .84 .83 .84 .76 26 FRB29B 1697 1996 .60 .58 .61 .80 .90 .91 .78 27 FRB2B 1771 1996 .86 .87 .86 .86 28 FRB30B1 1419 1624 .88 .89 .88 .84 .83 .88 .88 .87 29 FRB30B2 1631 1996 .83 .81 .85 .84 .83 .80 .68 .74 .77 30 FRB9A 1753 1996 .78 .70 .71 .77 31 SCJ4A 1039 1493 .77 .80 .78 .80 .81 32 FRB10A 1175 1996 .80 .79 .84 .84 .65 .40 .61 .87 .91 .86 .84 .88 .88 .88 .85 .87 .86 .80 .79 .73 33 FRB10B 1176 1920 .71 .70 .86 .89 .75 .47 .62 .87 .91 .86 .84 .89 .87 .87 .85 .83 .85 .82 .83 .74 34 FRB14B 1425 1830 .67 .69 .71 .84 .88 .90 .92 .88 .85 .87 .87 .79 .69 .72 .65 .70 35 FRB7A 1178 1995 .86 .82 .72 .76 .81 .83 .88 .94 .91 .81 .85 .85 .90 .94 .91 .80 .75 .83 .84 .80 36 FRB7B 1178 1996 .85 .84 .71 .79 .84 .80 .87 .95 .92 .85 .86 .82 .90 .95 .91 .81 .76 .85 .84 .80 Av segment correlation .80 .80 .83 .82 .79 .77 .81 .86 .87 .84 .84 .84 .84 .85 .82 .76 .78 .80 .82 .78 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: + 13:15 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 FRE01B 1401 1982 .79 .68 .67 .78 .72 2 FRE01C 1375 1982 .76 .67 .67 .74 .67 3 FRE02A 1354 1982 .77 .71 .67 .81 .77 4 FRE08B 1386 1982 .76 .77 .80 .82 .75 5 FRE08C 1290 1982 .80 .82 .84 .84 .80 6 FRE15A 1534 1948 .68 .65 .74 7 FRE15B 1747 1982 .60 .61 .76 .74 .65 8 FRE24A 1533 1982 .68 .76 .81 .79 .77 9 FRE24B 1576 1982 .74 .68 .66 .82 .79 14 FRE43A 1597 1982 .35 .35 .60 .78 .77 24 FRB1B 1798 1996 .75 .72 .80 .89 .92 25 FRB20A 1759 1996 .81 .82 .83 .84 .87 26 FRB29B 1697 1996 .68 .75 .73 .77 .86 27 FRB2B 1771 1996 .84 .83 .81 .86 .90 29 FRB30B2 1631 1996 .71 .68 .62 .75 .88 30 FRB9A 1753 1996 .74 .84 .84 .85 .78 32 FRB10A 1175 1996 .71 .61 .54 .51 .62 33 FRB10B 1176 1920 .66 .70 35 FRB7A 1178 1995 .84 .77 .53 .71 .81 36 FRB7B 1178 1996 .82 .74 .53 .71 .84 Av segment correlation .72 .71 .71 .78 .79 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: + 13:15 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 FRE01B 1401 1982 582 23 0 .761 .51 2.20 .350 .676 .482 2.57 .330 -.018 2 2 FRE01C 1375 1982 608 24 0 .757 .52 2.67 .365 .689 .478 2.53 .291 -.019 2 3 FRE02A 1354 1982 629 25 0 .812 .51 3.17 .451 .762 .435 2.56 .309 -.007 1 4 FRE08B 1386 1982 597 24 0 .802 .49 1.35 .263 .494 .495 2.65 .363 -.021 1 5 FRE08C 1290 1982 693 28 0 .811 .59 1.74 .302 .498 .465 2.54 .286 -.020 1 6 FRE15A 1534 1948 415 16 0 .796 .29 1.35 .217 .601 .584 2.69 .444 -.046 1 7 FRE15B 1747 1982 236 10 0 .714 .58 1.81 .288 .653 .332 2.69 .445 -.035 1 8 FRE24A 1533 1982 450 18 0 .814 .71 2.03 .332 .413 .410 2.53 .355 -.007 2 9 FRE24B 1576 1982 407 16 0 .818 .66 1.70 .308 .406 .420 2.42 .282 -.004 2 10 FRE34V 1096 1647 552 22 0 .885 .50 1.49 .274 .208 .637 2.53 .428 -.029 2 11 FRE34Z 1163 1667 505 20 0 .891 .47 1.32 .256 .169 .653 2.57 .391 -.029 6 12 FRE39X 1447 1663 217 9 0 .798 .80 2.35 .438 .720 .396 2.54 .405 -.006 1 13 FRE42Y 1339 1637 299 12 1 .723 .49 1.45 .289 .619 .498 2.40 .259 -.013 1 14 FRE43A 1597 1982 386 16 0 .687 .84 2.38 .381 .604 .323 2.48 .300 -.030 1 15 FRB21c2 1011 1350 340 14 0 .884 .77 2.78 .497 .641 .495 2.54 .302 -.037 2 16 FRB25c1 870 1270 401 16 0 .770 .69 2.79 .427 .429 .612 2.69 .370 -.024 2 17 FRB28B 870 1290 421 17 0 .873 .56 2.48 .410 .640 .519 2.62 .350 -.026 4 18 FRB19A 870 1138 269 11 0 .891 .68 2.66 .490 .530 .647 2.63 .408 -.026 1 19 FRB18B 912 1630 719 29 0 .854 .59 3.43 .469 .703 .579 2.54 .352 -.010 1 20 FRB28A 870 1324 455 18 0 .887 .58 1.54 .321 .455 .529 2.52 .338 -.023 6 21 FRB27A 983 1623 641 25 0 .894 .64 2.21 .423 .632 .522 2.51 .327 -.041 2 22 FRB21C 1106 1530 425 17 0 .893 .53 2.05 .378 .610 .581 2.56 .398 -.056 1 23 FRB29A 936 1599 664 26 0 .855 .82 2.31 .405 .410 .458 2.49 .310 -.022 2 24 FRB1B 1798 1996 199 8 0 .859 .65 1.59 .341 .532 .520 2.64 .401 -.056 3 25 FRB20A 1759 1996 238 9 0 .816 .98 2.26 .389 .368 .389 2.59 .404 -.023 1 26 FRB29B 1697 1996 300 12 0 .769 .79 2.08 .393 .429 .422 2.58 .344 -.045 1 27 FRB2B 1771 1996 226 9 0 .865 .65 2.86 .498 .606 .610 2.79 .463 -.017 1 28 FRB30B1 1419 1624 206 8 0 .885 .47 1.29 .277 .372 .638 2.59 .501 -.020 1 29 FRB30B2 1631 1996 366 14 0 .793 .44 1.34 .259 .446 .633 2.63 .470 -.049 1 30 FRB9A 1753 1996 244 9 0 .796 .79 1.70 .335 .450 .401 2.53 .311 -.031 4 31 SCJ4A 1039 1493 455 18 0 .783 .57 1.67 .370 .717 .424 2.55 .351 -.015 2 32 FRB10A 1175 1996 822 32 0 .775 .55 2.88 .437 .753 .499 2.82 .385 -.002 1 33 FRB10B 1176 1920 745 29 0 .795 .57 3.41 .462 .765 .488 2.66 .389 -.005 1 34 FRB14B 1425 1830 406 16 0 .800 .59 1.71 .338 .561 .476 2.73 .436 -.007 2 35 FRB7A 1178 1995 818 32 0 .808 .50 1.54 .277 .584 .469 2.53 .292 -.011 2 36 FRB7B 1178 1996 819 32 0 .802 .48 1.66 .255 .569 .465 2.62 .319 .000 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 16755 664 1 .817 .59 3.43 .359 .561 .500 2.82 .354 -.020