Table Rock/Arrow Gap, Oregon - OR062 Additional Site Information Dave Meko Chronology for study of drought. Truncated for ITRDB at A.D. 530, when sample size reaches 5 trees. Earlier dated and measured series not included extend back to 66 B.C. Ringwidths detrended by ratio method (Cook et al. 1990). Automated choice of dtrending curves. Order of preference: (1) monotonic non-increasing cubic smoothing spline, (2) least-squares-fit straight line of negative slope, and (3) horizontal line at mean of ring width. The horizontal line is equivalent to no detrending. Spline fit by trial and error, incrementally increasing the spline parameter (Cook and Peters 1981) while monitoring first and second derivatives of the fitted spline at each iteration. Spline initially set very stiff (approximately straight line), and allowed to become more flexible as spline parameter increased. Iteration stopped when either of two conditions on first two derivatives of fitted spline violated: (1) first derivative (slope) must be negative everywhere, and (2) second derivative (curvature) must be positive throughout the second half of the series. If most flexible possible spline satisfying the above conditions so stiff that the amplitude of frequency response at a wavelength twice the series length is less than 0.5, series detrended with a least-squares-fit straight line. If slope of the fitted spline or straight line positive, a horizontal line at the ring-width mean used as the "age trend" (effectively no detrending). Plots of ring width and overlaid selected detrending curves viewed subsequently for optional manual overide of automatic curve selections or manual specification of fit period less than entire series length. Final selected detrending curves listed in table below. After the trend line fit, core indices computed as the ratio of ringwidth to trend line. Core indices then averaged to get tree indices, and tree indices averaged to get site index, or standard chronology. Averaging of tree indices for a given year by arithmetic mean if fewer than 6 trees; otherwise by bi-weight mean. Residual chronology computed in same way as standard chronology except that autoregressive residuals of core indices used in place of core indices. The "sample size" listed in attached ".crn" files is the number of TREES sampled each year, not the number of cores. N Core Fit Period Curve fit Persistence 1 TRJ01C 530 1000 SL AR(2) 0.25 2 TRJ01D 530 1195 SL AR(2) 0.22 3 TRJ02C 761 1860 CS(825 yr) AR(3) 0.11 4 TRJ10A 1169 1815 CS(440 yr) AR(3) 0.13 5 TRJ12A 1098 1734 CS(325 yr) AR(3) 0.09 6 TRJ12B 1292 1996 HL AR(3) 0.18 7 TRJ12C 1783 1996 HL AR(2) 0.20 8 TRJ14B 1799 1996 HL AR(2) 0.28 9 TRJ16A 1101 1670 SL AR(3) 0.20 10 TRJ16C 530 1100 * HL AR(3) 0.29 11 TRJ16B 884 1923 CS(915 yr) AR(3) 0.21 12 TRJ19A 1393 1996 CS(695 yr) AR(3) 0.27 13 TRJ1B 1800 1996 HL AR(2) 0.23 14 TRJ20A 1640 1996 HL AR(3) 0.24 15 TRJ20B 1287 1996 HL AR(3) 0.11 16 TRJ21A 778 1215 * CS(374 yr) AR(3) 0.07 17 TRJ21B 765 1140 CS(320 yr) AR(3) 0.18 18 TRJ22A 530 594 HL AR(1) 0.14 19 TRJ23A 530 1350 CS(764 yr) AR(3) 0.18 20 TRJ24A 1662 1996 SL AR(2) 0.10 21 TRJ25A 702 1655 * CS(1989 yr) AR(3) 0.13 22 TRJ27A 756 1100 SL AR(3) 0.14 23 TRJ28A 1416 1996 CS(581 yr) AR(3) 0.26 24 TRJ28B 1169 1996 CS(828 yr) AR(3) 0.22 25 TRJ29A 640 1637 HL AR(3) 0.24 26 TRJ30A 530 1200 CS(1094 yr) AR(3) 0.12 27 TRJ33A 1100 1670 HL AR(3) 0.03 28 TRJ34B 1685 1996 SL AR(3) 0.25 29 TRJ35C 1719 1996 HL AR(3) 0.27 30 TRJ38A 1424 1774 SL AR(2) 0.22 31 TRJ38B 1351 1774 SL AR(3) 0.27 Fit Period = period of ring width used in curve fitting * = subset of full period of ring width in .rwl file Curve Fit = type of model used to detrend ring width NE=modified negative exponential SL=least-square-fit straight line HL=horizontal line at mean of ring width for fit period CS=cubic smoothing spline (wavelength of 50% frequency reponse in parentheses) Persistence = autoregressive prewhitening information AR(q) = order q of autoregressive model fit to core index nn = decimal proportion of core-index variance due to persistence; computed as 1-R, where R is the ratio of variance of residual index to variance of standard index References: Cook, E.R., Briffa, K., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V. 1990. Tree- ring standardization and growth-trend estimation. In: Methods of dendrochronology, applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Press, Boston, 104-123. Cook, E.R., Peters, K., 1981. The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree Ring Bulletin, 41, p. 45-53 Meko, D.M., M. D. Therrell, C. H. Baisan, and M. K. Hughes, 2001, Sacramento River Flow Reconstructed to A.D. 869 From Tree Rings, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.37, No.4, August 2001. Meko, D. M., 2001. Reconstructed Sacramento River system runoff from tree rings, Report prepared for the California Department of Water Resources under Agreement No. B81923-SAP # 4600000193. Available from: California Department of Water Resources, P.O. Box 942836, Room 1601, Sacramento, CA 94236-0001. 63 pp. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : OR062.CRN Measurement file name : OR062.RWL Date checked : 29MAR05 Checked by : H. ADAMS AND J. LUKAS Beginning year : 530 Ending year : 1996 Principal investigators: MEKO, BAISAN,TOUCHAN,GROW,FUNKHOUSER Site name : TABLE ROCK/ARROW GAP Site location : OREGON Species information : JUOC WESTERN JUNIPER Latitude : +4311 Longitude : -12054 Elevation : 1418M Series intercorrelation: 0.833 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.622 Avg standard deviation : 0.321 Avg autocorrelation : 0.455 Number dated series : 31 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 1 Pct problem segments : 0.14 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or062.rwl 13:16 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 1000 574 599 624 649 674 699 724 749 774 799 824 849 874 899 924 949 974 999 1024 1049 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 TRJ01C 530 1000 .70 .73 .86 .91 .90 .90 .87 .83 .79 .82 .89 .91 .89 .87 .89 .87 .83 .84 .71 2 TRJ01D 530 1195 .70 .85 .92 .95 .93 .86 .85 .83 .81 .85 .88 .86 .85 .83 .80 .78 .80 .86 .68 .65 3 TRJ02C 761 1860 .84 .84 .83 .86 .89 .83 .82 .90 .85 .82 .80 10 TRJ16C 530 1321 .77 .78 .77 .76 .77 .81 .79 .79 .83 .85 .87 .86 .87 .60 .64 .88 .88 .88 .89 .87 11 TRJ16B 884 1923 .81 .84 .92 .91 .92 .91 16 TRJ21A 765 1215 .83 .89 .87 .91 .93 .88 .87 .93 .92 .93 .88 17 TRJ21B 765 1140 .85 .91 .91 .88 .87 .86 .87 .88 .91 .90 .86 18 TRJ22A 530 594 .59 .61 19 TRJ23A 530 1350 .78 .87 .90 .92 .92 .92 .92 .91 .94 .93 .88 .88 .90 .92 .92 .89 .86 .86 .80 .78 21 TRJ25A 621 1920 .89 .88 .90 .87 .79 .80 .93 .91 .88 .88 .84 .88 .86 .82 .89 .85 .77 22 TRJ27A 756 1100 .93 .91 .92 .90 .86 .87 .84 .85 .86 .80 .74 25 TRJ29A 640 1637 .88 .91 .87 .80 .83 .87 .86 .89 .89 .85 .83 .78 .80 .88 .80 .76 26 TRJ30A 530 1200 .74 .74 .84 .87 .78 .70 .78 .69 .72 .73 .68 .84 .84 .70 .69 .62 .53 .76 .77 .69 Av segment correlation .71 .76 .86 .88 .87 .86 .85 .80 .82 .86 .87 .88 .88 .83 .83 .83 .83 .87 .82 .79 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or062.rwl 13:16 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2 TRJ01D 530 1195 .81 .84 .76 .74 .77 .55 3 TRJ02C 761 1860 .78 .82 .79 .80 .76 .74 .81 .87 .90 .83 .82 .89 .88 .91 .92 .87 .78 .47 .18B .41 4 TRJ10A 1169 1815 .90 .86 .73 .72 .83 .88 .91 .85 .83 .86 .89 .89 .80 .81 .87 5 TRJ12A 1098 1734 .78 .78 .83 .86 .93 .93 .91 .90 .93 .94 .91 .94 .93 .92 .94 .87 .80 .84 6 TRJ12B 1292 1996 .94 .94 .82 .85 .89 .90 .86 .81 .83 .86 9 TRJ16A 1101 1670 .85 .91 .91 .91 .94 .94 .94 .93 .95 .94 .88 .89 .90 .87 .82 .83 .87 10 TRJ16C 530 1321 .83 .82 .87 .88 .92 .86 .88 .92 .87 .85 .72 11 TRJ16B 884 1923 .85 .84 .87 .89 .90 .85 .86 .94 .94 .92 .92 .94 .89 .83 .85 .88 .85 .80 .80 .84 12 TRJ19A 1393 1996 .90 .90 .89 .90 .92 .93 15 TRJ20B 1287 1996 .85 .89 .86 .87 .89 .88 .87 .84 .83 .91 16 TRJ21A 765 1215 .83 .86 .85 .88 .91 .88 .83 17 TRJ21B 765 1140 .84 .88 .83 .75 19 TRJ23A 530 1350 .89 .93 .87 .83 .83 .79 .83 .87 .87 .87 .82 .85 .84 21 TRJ25A 621 1920 .83 .87 .74 .71 .85 .84 .88 .93 .93 .91 .91 .88 .86 .90 .87 .85 .84 .77 .70 .80 22 TRJ27A 756 1100 .62 .59 .59 23 TRJ28A 1416 1996 .93 .94 .91 .83 .87 24 TRJ28B 1169 1996 .90 .90 .93 .93 .94 .94 .92 .91 .95 .95 .92 .88 .85 .80 .83 25 TRJ29A 640 1637 .80 .87 .76 .73 .84 .88 .83 .86 .90 .92 .92 .89 .86 .81 .83 .83 .75 .75 .80 .81 26 TRJ30A 530 1200 .75 .86 .70 .67 .79 .78 .78 27 TRJ33A 1100 1670 .76 .94 .92 .90 .86 .84 .81 .85 .88 .75 .74 .87 .82 .79 .85 .83 .80 30 TRJ38A 1424 1774 .60 .60 .60 .59 .61 31 TRJ38B 1351 1774 .54 .59 .67 .63 .66 .63 .65 Av segment correlation .80 .83 .78 .79 .85 .83 .86 .89 .89 .88 .88 .91 .86 .84 .86 .85 .83 .78 .75 .79 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: or062.rwl 13:16 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 3 TRJ02C 761 1860 .84 .68 .61 .80 .76 .77 .79 .72 .69 .75 .77 .84 .83 4 TRJ10A 1169 1815 .91 .93 .92 .91 .85 .76 .75 .71 .74 .79 .80 5 TRJ12A 1098 1734 .93 .92 .87 .85 .81 .82 .79 .78 6 TRJ12B 1292 1996 .88 .89 .90 .91 .86 .87 .88 .83 .55 .60 .88 .91 .90 .87 .87 .84 .87 .87 7 TRJ12C 1783 1996 .89 .90 .90 .91 .91 .89 .87 .89 8 TRJ14B 1799 1996 .83 .83 .86 .84 .81 .84 .92 .92 9 TRJ16A 1101 1670 .88 .90 .86 .80 .46 11 TRJ16B 884 1923 .86 .68 .62 .81 .85 .84 .83 .78 .82 .80 .76 .77 .76 .78 .75 12 TRJ19A 1393 1996 .86 .87 .92 .90 .87 .77 .84 .89 .85 .86 .89 .90 .89 .85 .80 .79 .89 .90 13 TRJ1B 1800 1996 .87 .88 .85 .84 .86 .88 .87 14 TRJ20A 1640 1996 .62 .57 .81 .92 .85 .83 .89 .91 .90 .87 .87 .90 .94 .94 15 TRJ20B 1287 1996 .94 .94 .93 .93 .91 .81 .86 .90 .82 .80 .79 .85 .84 .77 .80 .85 .90 .91 20 TRJ24A 1662 1996 .85 .87 .90 .91 .90 .86 .87 .88 .86 .81 .80 .93 .94 21 TRJ25A 621 1920 .87 .81 .61 .63 .72 .76 .86 .87 .85 .80 .80 .83 .80 .82 .87 23 TRJ28A 1416 1996 .93 .84 .80 .90 .86 .85 .92 .90 .85 .89 .85 .85 .82 .76 .81 .90 .92 .92 24 TRJ28B 1169 1996 .87 .87 .88 .86 .79 .72 .83 .90 .85 .88 .93 .95 .92 .86 .87 .83 .72 .77 25 TRJ29A 640 1637 .85 .83 .79 .81 27 TRJ33A 1100 1670 .82 .85 .87 .86 .83 28 TRJ34B 1685 1996 .62 .75 .58 .60 .65 .61 .62 .59 .63 .73 .85 .81 29 TRJ35C 1719 1996 .50 .47 .57 .74 .65 .61 .55 .66 .82 .85 .83 30 TRJ38A 1424 1774 .68 .76 .67 .59 .65 .67 .72 .73 .72 31 TRJ38B 1351 1774 .73 .78 .67 .59 .66 .68 .73 .72 .73 Av segment correlation .86 .84 .79 .81 .77 .77 .81 .80 .75 .77 .82 .84 .83 .80 .81 .84 .88 .88 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: or062.rwl 13:16 Tue 29 Mar 2005 Page 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 TRJ01C 530 1000 471 19 0 .817 .66 3.58 .520 .595 .528 2.57 .426 -.063 1 2 TRJ01D 530 1195 666 26 0 .816 .47 2.13 .319 .501 .647 2.62 .358 -.044 1 3 TRJ02C 761 1860 1100 44 1 .802 .31 1.27 .195 .340 .678 2.60 .301 -.015 2 4 TRJ10A 1169 1815 647 26 0 .840 .48 2.15 .358 .683 .552 2.51 .357 -.025 1 5 TRJ12A 1098 1734 637 26 0 .898 .67 4.34 .662 .680 .696 2.70 .438 -.040 1 6 TRJ12B 1292 1996 705 28 0 .870 .36 1.44 .252 .357 .757 2.70 .463 -.044 2 7 TRJ12C 1783 1996 214 8 0 .910 .47 1.59 .289 .344 .659 2.52 .421 -.035 1 8 TRJ14B 1799 1996 198 8 0 .866 .76 2.21 .481 .491 .647 2.51 .477 -.051 1 9 TRJ16A 1101 1670 570 22 0 .863 .55 2.06 .396 .455 .700 2.65 .399 -.025 2 10 TRJ16C 530 1321 792 31 0 .832 .45 2.41 .350 .538 .706 2.64 .367 -.010 1 11 TRJ16B 884 1923 1040 41 0 .841 .52 2.49 .374 .469 .651 2.70 .357 -.009 1 12 TRJ19A 1393 1996 604 24 0 .878 .40 1.27 .237 .494 .548 2.61 .359 -.044 2 13 TRJ1B 1800 1996 197 7 0 .864 .72 1.37 .284 .435 .415 2.44 .326 -.044 1 14 TRJ20A 1640 1996 357 14 0 .864 .45 1.20 .230 .392 .549 2.72 .467 -.048 2 15 TRJ20B 1287 1996 710 28 0 .873 .45 1.08 .222 .223 .593 2.59 .433 -.038 1 16 TRJ21A 765 1215 451 18 0 .876 .65 2.97 .538 .683 .515 2.83 .387 -.022 2 17 TRJ21B 765 1140 376 15 0 .839 .83 3.77 .678 .669 .479 2.64 .282 -.026 1 18 TRJ22A 530 594 65 2 0 .644 .21 .66 .145 .341 .731 2.95 .637 -.003 1 19 TRJ23A 530 1350 821 33 0 .878 .51 2.85 .435 .502 .767 2.69 .331 -.016 1 20 TRJ24A 1662 1996 335 13 0 .883 .55 1.42 .252 .282 .519 2.61 .425 -.033 1 21 TRJ25A 621 1920 1300 52 0 .838 .43 1.83 .300 .494 .657 2.62 .357 -.026 4 22 TRJ27A 756 1100 345 14 0 .841 .59 2.57 .467 .517 .743 2.60 .359 -.021 1 23 TRJ28A 1416 1996 581 23 0 .873 .45 2.00 .302 .579 .559 2.54 .375 -.023 2 24 TRJ28B 1169 1996 828 33 0 .869 .34 1.41 .206 .449 .613 2.59 .390 -.020 2 25 TRJ29A 640 1637 998 40 0 .835 .38 1.83 .258 .424 .621 2.73 .334 -.008 1 26 TRJ30A 530 1200 671 27 0 .766 .33 1.10 .209 .223 .774 2.89 .440 .001 1 27 TRJ33A 1100 1670 571 22 0 .846 .37 1.14 .211 .103 .735 2.69 .412 -.019 1 28 TRJ34B 1685 1996 312 12 0 .662 .45 1.19 .172 .431 .375 2.49 .312 -.029 1 29 TRJ35C 1719 1996 278 11 0 .677 .69 1.31 .249 .420 .342 2.57 .394 -.032 1 30 TRJ38A 1424 1774 351 14 0 .653 .54 1.65 .237 .485 .360 2.69 .423 -.031 1 31 TRJ38B 1351 1774 424 16 0 .658 .53 1.45 .237 .498 .363 2.67 .413 -.049 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 17615 697 1 .833 .48 4.34 .321 .455 .622 2.95 .380 -.026