[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run YLAT1 Program COF 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25211 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS File of DATED series: ylat.tu_ CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved C 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1681 to 2001 321 years Continuous time span is 1681 to 2001 321 years Portion with two or more series is 1704 to 2001 298 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 24 *C* *O* Master series 1681 2001 321 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5351 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5328 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .601 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .229 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 12 *A* *** Mean length of series 223.0 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> . PFC0002A 1 1727 2001 275 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PFC0002B 2 1714 2001 288 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================> . PFC0004A 3 1753 2001 249 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=============> . PFC0004B 4 1860 2001 142 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PFC0005A 5 1714 2001 288 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================> . PFC0005B 6 1826 2001 176 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . PFC0006A 7 1739 2001 263 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============================> . PFC0006B 8 1681 2001 321 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> . PFC0007A 9 1816 2001 186 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> . PFC0007B 10 1813 2001 189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> . PFC0009A 11 1795 2001 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================> . PFC0009B 12 1771 2001 231 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================> . PFC0010A 13 1823 2001 179 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . PFC0010B 14 1842 2001 160 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . PFC0011A 15 1845 2001 157 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================> . PFC0011B 16 1827 2001 175 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . PFC0012A 17 1831 2001 171 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> . PFC0012B 18 1802 2001 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . PFC0013A 19 1734 2001 268 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================> . PFC0013B 20 1704 2001 298 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PFC0014A 21 1711 2001 291 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================> . PFC0014B 22 1821 2001 181 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PFC0015A 23 1717 2001 285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . PFC0015B 24 1831 2001 171 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 -1.108 1 1750 -.527 9 1800 .817 12 1850 .852 23 1900 -.968 24 1701 .829 1 1751 -1.510 9 1801 .417 12 1851 .220 23 1901 1.483 24 1702 1.567 1 1752 -.016 9 1802 .906 13 1852 .132 23 1902 .498 24 1703 -.326 1 1753 .398 10 1803 .030 13 1853 .803 23 1903 -1.375 24 1704 -.130 2 1754 .671 10 1804 1.036 13 1854 1.056 23 1904 .479 24 1705 -.821 2 1755 .382 10 1805 1.108 13 1855 1.454 23 1905 -.397 24 1706 -1.015 2 1756 1.148 10 1806 -.875 13 1856 1.254 23 1906 -.296 24 1707 -.544 2 1757 1.451 10 1807 .178 13 1857 .306 23 1907 -.838 24 1708 .763 2 1758 .868 10 1808 1.014 13 1858 .700 23 1908 .254 24 1709 -1.096 2 1759 .383 10 1809 .103 13 1859 -.194 23 1909 -.038 24 1710 -.139 2 1760 .570 10 1810 .387 13 1860 .341 24 1910 -2.651 24 1711 2.203 3 1761 2.009 10 1811 .234 13 1861 -.367 24 1911 -1.412 24 1712 1.497 3 1762 1.615 10 1812 .044 13 1862 -1.367 24 1912 .894 24 1713 .528 3 1763 .948 10 1813 -1.426 14 1863 -.136 24 1913 -.284 24 1714 -.556 5 1764 -.182 10 1814 -.729 14 1864 1.220 24 1914 1.324 24 1715 -.183 5 1765 .631 10 1815 -.854 14 1865 -.797 24 1915 1.476 24 1716 .816 5 1766 -.185 10 1816 -1.875 15 1866 -2.434 24 1916 .208 24 1717 1.054 6 1767 -.169 10 1817 -1.522 15 1867 -1.665 24 1917 -.463 24 1718 .278 6 1768 -.200 10 1818 -1.271 15 1868 -.913 24 1918 -.877 24 1719 -1.180 6 1769 -1.078 10 1819 -.694 15 1869 .743 24 1919 -.699 24 1720 .131 6 1770 -1.328 10 1820 -.745 15 1870 .798 24 1920 -1.297 24 1721 -.818 6 1771 -.828 11 1821 -1.180 16 1871 -.741 24 1921 .357 24 1722 -.060 6 1772 -1.946 11 1822 -.355 16 1872 -1.014 24 1922 1.012 24 1723 .214 6 1773 -2.530 11 1823 .347 17 1873 1.312 24 1923 .733 24 1724 -.096 6 1774 -.508 11 1824 .853 17 1874 -.091 24 1924 -.207 24 1725 .120 6 1775 -.561 11 1825 -.348 17 1875 -.054 24 1925 1.354 24 1726 -.209 6 1776 -.917 11 1826 1.695 18 1876 .686 24 1926 -1.149 24 1727 -.279 7 1777 .790 11 1827 .963 19 1877 .954 24 1927 .604 24 1728 -1.132 7 1778 .469 11 1828 .041 19 1878 .444 24 1928 -1.051 24 1729 .177 7 1779 .219 11 1829 1.180 19 1879 .056 24 1929 -2.594 24 1730 .923 7 1780 1.060 11 1830 .716 19 1880 -.242 24 1930 .939 24 1681 1.864 1 1731 .861 7 1781 .319 11 1831 1.143 21 1881 -1.323 24 1931 .857 24 1682 -.056 1 1732 1.287 7 1782 .892 11 1832 1.036 21 1882 -.313 24 1932 .726 24 1683 .274 1 1733 .066 7 1783 .844 11 1833 .925 21 1883 .800 24 1933 .709 24 1684 .672 1 1734 -1.224 8 1784 .137 11 1834 .595 21 1884 -.068 24 1934 1.544 24 1685 .846 1 1735 -.927 8 1785 .688 11 1835 -.537 21 1885 .846 24 1935 .653 24 1686 -3.772 1 1736 -.331 8 1786 -.051 11 1836 -.519 21 1886 1.037 24 1936 -.249 24 1687 -.928 1 1737 -.282 8 1787 .204 11 1837 -2.375 21 1887 .131 24 1937 1.613 24 1688 -.805 1 1738 .200 8 1788 .927 11 1838 -.801 21 1888 -1.585 24 1938 .721 24 1689 1.435 1 1739 1.272 9 1789 .519 11 1839 -2.182 21 1889 .619 24 1939 -.360 24 1690 1.543 1 1740 .617 9 1790 -1.081 11 1840 -1.024 21 1890 2.178 24 1940 -1.139 24 1691 .894 1 1741 .738 9 1791 .328 11 1841 -.954 21 1891 .468 24 1941 .514 24 1692 .944 1 1742 .028 9 1792 .310 11 1842 .048 22 1892 -2.068 24 1942 -.799 24 1693 1.760 1 1743 -.135 9 1793 -.514 11 1843 -.910 22 1893 -1.039 24 1943 -.729 24 1694 1.832 1 1744 -1.399 9 1794 -.839 11 1844 .325 22 1894 -.250 24 1944 -.217 24 1695 -.606 1 1745 -1.621 9 1795 -2.430 12 1845 .982 23 1895 .280 24 1945 -.302 24 1696 -2.465 1 1746 -.537 9 1796 -1.118 12 1846 -.113 23 1896 .577 24 1946 -1.813 24 1697 -2.080 1 1747 -.550 9 1797 .126 12 1847 -.770 23 1897 -.366 24 1947 -.425 24 1698 -1.520 1 1748 -.938 9 1798 .061 12 1848 -.081 23 1898 1.871 24 1948 .292 24 1699 -.131 1 1749 -.098 9 1799 1.856 12 1849 .889 23 1899 .669 24 1949 -.570 24 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1950 -.453 24 2000 -.130 24 1951 -1.536 24 2001 .480 24 1952 -.345 24 1953 .747 24 1954 .404 24 1955 .369 24 1956 .898 24 1957 1.340 24 1958 .620 24 1959 .754 24 1960 1.933 24 1961 -.417 24 1962 -1.152 24 1963 -2.003 24 1964 1.939 24 1965 -.583 24 1966 .275 24 1967 .676 24 1968 -.437 24 1969 -1.365 24 1970 .823 24 1971 -1.259 24 1972 -.537 24 1973 .285 24 1974 -.883 24 1975 -.158 24 1976 .664 24 1977 .507 24 1978 -1.160 24 1979 .621 24 1980 .481 24 1981 -.577 24 1982 -1.423 24 1983 .635 24 1984 .221 24 1985 .718 24 1986 .390 24 1987 -.956 24 1988 .308 24 1989 1.132 24 1990 -.205 24 1991 .002 24 1992 .630 24 1993 1.055 24 1994 .056 24 1995 -.968 24 1996 -1.604 24 1997 .784 24 1998 .882 24 1999 -.614 24 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1700-d 1750---b 1800--------C 1850--------C 1900-d 1950---b 2000----a 1701--------C 1751f 1801------B 1851------A 1901----------F 1951f 2001-------B 1702----------F 1752-----@ 1802--------D 1852-----A 1902-------B 1952---a 1703---a 1753------B 1803-----@ 1853--------C 1903-e 1953--------C 1704----a 1754-------C 1804---------D 1854---------D 1904-------B 1954------B 1705--c 1755------B 1805---------D 1855----------F 1905---b 1955------A 1706-d 1756---------E 1806--c 1856---------E 1906----a 1956--------D 1707---b 1757----------F 1807-----A 1857------A 1907--c 1957----------E 1708--------C 1758--------C 1808---------D 1858-------C 1908------A 1958-------B 1709-d 1759------B 1809-----@ 1859----a 1909-----@ 1959--------C 1710----a 1760-------B 1810------B 1860------A 1910k 1960----------H 1711----------I 1761----------H 1811------A 1861---a 1911f 1961---b 1712----------F 1762----------F 1812-----@ 1862-e 1912--------D 1962-e 1713-------B 1763---------D 1813f 1863----a 1913----a 1963h 1714---b 1764----a 1814--c 1864---------E 1914----------E 1964----------H 1715----a 1765-------C 1815--c 1865--c 1915----------F 1965---b 1716--------C 1766----a 1816h 1866j 1916------A 1966------A 1717---------D 1767----a 1817f 1867g 1917---b 1967-------C 1718------A 1768----a 1818-e 1868--d 1918--d 1968---b 1719-e 1769-d 1819--c 1869--------C 1919--c 1969-e 1720-----A 1770-e 1820--c 1870--------C 1920-e 1970--------C 1721--c 1771--c 1821-e 1871--c 1921------A 1971-e 1722----@ 1772h 1822---a 1872-d 1922---------D 1972---b 1723------A 1773j 1823------A 1873----------E 1923--------C 1973------A 1724----@ 1774---b 1824--------C 1874----@ 1924----a 1974--d 1725-----@ 1775---b 1825---a 1875----@ 1925----------E 1975----a 1726----a 1776--d 1826----------G 1876-------C 1926-e 1976-------C 1727----a 1777--------C 1827---------D 1877---------D 1927-------B 1977-------B 1728-e 1778------B 1828-----@ 1878------B 1928-d 1978-e 1729-----A 1779------A 1829---------E 1879-----@ 1929j 1979-------B 1730---------D 1780---------D 1830--------C 1880----a 1930---------D 1980-------B 1681----------G 1731--------C 1781------A 1831---------E 1881-e 1931--------C 1981---b 1682----@ 1732----------E 1782--------D 1832---------D 1882---a 1932--------C 1982f 1683------A 1733-----@ 1783--------C 1833---------D 1883--------C 1933-------C 1983-------C 1684-------C 1734-e 1784-----A 1834-------B 1884----@ 1934----------F 1984------A 1685--------C 1735--d 1785-------C 1835---b 1885--------C 1935-------C 1985--------C 1686o 1736---a 1786-----@ 1836---b 1886---------D 1936----a 1986------B 1687--d 1737----a 1787------A 1837j 1887-----A 1937----------F 1987-d 1688--c 1738------A 1788---------D 1838--c 1888f 1938--------C 1988------A 1689----------F 1739---------E 1789-------B 1839i 1889-------B 1939---a 1989---------E 1690----------F 1740-------B 1790-d 1840-d 1890----------I 1940-e 1990----a 1691--------D 1741--------C 1791------A 1841-d 1891------B 1941-------B 1991-----@ 1692---------D 1742-----@ 1792------A 1842-----@ 1892h 1942--c 1992-------C 1693----------G 1743----a 1793---b 1843--d 1893-d 1943--c 1993---------D 1694----------G 1744f 1794--c 1844------A 1894----a 1944----a 1994-----@ 1695---b 1745f 1795j 1845---------D 1895------A 1945---a 1995-d 1696j 1746---b 1796-d 1846----@ 1896-------B 1946g 1996f 1697h 1747---b 1797-----A 1847--c 1897---a 1947---b 1997--------C 1698f 1748--d 1798-----@ 1848----@ 1898----------G 1948------A 1998--------D 1699----a 1749----@ 1799----------G 1849--------D 1899-------C 1949---b 1999--b PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 PFC0002A 1727 2001 .64 .65 .40 .47 .66 .73 .70 .58 .60 .60 .59 2 PFC0002B 1714 2001 .25B .45 .57 .61 .80 .63 .48 .69 .77 .80 .55 .55 3 PFC0004A 1753 2001 .14B .12B .26B .60 .71 .75 .69 .56 .49 .50 4 PFC0004B 1860 2001 .66 .75 .79 .71 .69 .70 5 PFC0005A 1714 2001 .45 .50 .47 .47 .66 .69 .70 .67 .68 .74 .68 .68 6 PFC0005B 1826 2001 .43 .62 .73 .63 .57 .54 .48 7 PFC0006A 1739 2001 .70 .70 .72 .74 .69 .69 .71 .71 .68 .55 .55 8 PFC0006B 1681 2001 .32A .57 .77 .77 .77 .83 .81 .79 .74 .74 .63 .62 9 PFC0007A 1816 2001 .60 .70 .68 .64 .59 .68 .62 .59 10 PFC0007B 1813 2001 .45 .64 .66 .49 .47 .60 .62 .58 11 PFC0009A 1795 2001 .47 .41 .68 .68 .81 .83 .67 .49 .60 12 PFC0009B 1771 2001 .28B .29B .46B .69 .81 .73 .64 .71 .60 .63 13 PFC0010A 1823 2001 .66 .67 .73 .79 .75 .73 .63 .61 14 PFC0010B 1842 2001 .59 .64 .67 .65 .68 .63 .63 15 PFC0011A 1845 2001 .59 .59 .66 .70 .68 .59 .45 16 PFC0011B 1827 2001 .72 .65 .67 .74 .74 .66 .65 17 PFC0012A 1831 2001 .66 .61 .72 .82 .82 .62 .62 18 PFC0012B 1802 2001 .39B .62 .70 .81 .74 .68 .59 .58 19 PFC0013A 1734 2001 .09B .19B .36 .67 .49 .43 .51 .65 .66 .59 .56 20 PFC0013B 1704 2001 .31B .61 .71 .72 .66 .58 .53 .59 .56 .59 .47 .46 21 PFC0014A 1711 2001 .34 .44 .46 .43 .56 .55 .65 .68 .75 .77 .68 .68 22 PFC0014B 1821 2001 .66 .66 .59 .67 .67 .72 .72 .71 23 PFC0015A 1717 2001 .38 .39 .45 .56 .65 .60 .62 .67 .70 .78 .65 .64 24 PFC0015B 1831 2001 .70 .53 .56 .66 .71 .56 .55 Av segment correlation .34 .49 .49 .49 .58 .64 .65 .69 .69 .69 .60 .59 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== PFC0002A 1727 to 2001 275 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .592) is: Lower 1996> -.008 1770> -.007 1818> -.006 1807< -.006 1903> -.006 1809< -.006 Higher 1839 .008 1866 .007 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1796 +3.6 SD; 1818 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0002B 1714 to 2001 288 years Series 2 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1714 1763 -7 -.02 .18 .11 .25* .14 .15 .12 -.10 .10 .25 .25| .08 -.10 -.15 -.15 .06 -.17 -.02 -.09 -.10 -.14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .573) is: Lower 1984< -.031 1856< -.008 1786< -.008 1730< -.007 1721> -.006 1719> -.006 Higher 1837 .011 1910 .009 1714 to 1763 segment: Lower 1730< -.042 1721> -.040 1719> -.034 1732< -.032 1718> -.022 1744> -.021 Higher 1761 .044 1728 .039 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1984 -5.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0004A 1753 to 2001 249 years Series 3 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1753 1802 -1 -.20 -.01 -.13 .06 .22 -.06 .22 .16 .26 .57* .14| .27 .07 -.19 .07 -.07 -.36 .01 -.27 -.39 -.03 1775 1824 -1 -.26 -.01 -.30 .00 .16 -.13 .17 -.01 .13 .76* .12| .12 .26 .01 .01 .05 -.11 -.07 -.07 -.27 .02 1800 1849 -1 -.30 .02 -.13 -.02 .02 -.08 .17 .10 .24 .63* .26| .28 .41 .15 .07 .03 -.12 -.31 -.07 -.33 -.28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .502) is: Lower 1949< -.024 1806> -.011 1770> -.008 1972< -.007 1773> -.006 1807< -.006 Higher 1910 .019 1866 .011 1753 to 1802 segment: Lower 1770> -.044 1757< -.026 1800> -.024 1777< -.024 1781> -.023 1764> -.022 Higher 1772 .097 1795 .066 1775 to 1824 segment: Lower 1806> -.056 1807< -.033 1777< -.027 1787< -.022 1781> -.018 1809> -.016 Higher 1795 .066 1813 .042 1800 to 1849 segment: Lower 1806> -.062 1807< -.041 1800> -.026 1809> -.018 1838< -.016 1821> -.016 Higher 1839 .086 1813 .035 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1949 1950 4.5 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1949 -7.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0004B 1860 to 2001 142 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .705) is: Lower 1874> -.011 1969< -.010 1867< -.010 1981> -.008 1951> -.006 1924> -.006 Higher 1910 .014 1929 .008 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0005A 1714 to 2001 288 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .605) is: Lower 1784< -.047 1997< -.008 1923< -.006 1741< -.006 1740< -.004 1723< -.004 Higher 1892 .010 1929 .008 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1784 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0005B 1826 to 2001 176 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .544) is: Lower 1830< -.011 1971> -.010 1999> -.009 1835> -.009 1827< -.009 1994< -.008 Higher 1929 .015 1839 .013 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1835 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0006A 1739 to 2001 263 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .674) is: Lower 1781< -.008 1876< -.007 1996< -.007 1960< -.006 1879< -.006 1969> -.005 Higher 1892 .008 1837 .007 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1996 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0006B 1681 to 2001 321 years Series 8 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1681 to 1703 -- not matched by another series [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1704 1753 0 .19 .02 -.14 -.07 -.01 -.20 .10 .13 -.11 .00 .32* .21 -.06 -.05 -.11 -.19 .14 .17 .04 .15 -.05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .668) is: Lower 1705> -.009 1979< -.008 1704< -.008 1714> -.007 1710> -.006 1999< -.005 Higher 1892 .008 1837 .007 1704 to 1753 segment: Lower 1704< -.042 1705> -.042 1714> -.039 1710> -.030 1739< -.025 1733> -.020 Higher 1711 .069 1744 .037 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0007A 1816 to 2001 186 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .595) is: Lower 1818< -.014 1995> -.012 1996< -.011 2000< -.010 1903> -.010 1959< -.009 Higher 1910 .019 1971 .010 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1995 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0007B 1813 to 2001 189 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .523) is: Lower 1813> -.027 1903> -.018 1837> -.018 1902< -.011 1933< -.009 1833< -.007 Higher 1839 .014 1971 .011 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1813 +4.0 SD; 1837 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0009A 1795 to 2001 207 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .600) is: Lower 1809< -.045 1950< -.020 1951> -.015 1996> -.010 1874> -.008 1992< -.007 Higher 1910 .013 1837 .012 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1950 1951 4.8 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1950 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0009B 1771 to 2001 231 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1771 1820 -3 -.17 -.05 -.18 -.24 .03 -.14 -.03 .44* .06 .06 .28|-.02 .19 .08 .11 .15 -.17 -.12 -.08 -.15 -.16 1775 1824 -3 -.20 -.03 -.19 -.22 .03 -.15 -.09 .42* .04 .01 .29| .00 .22 .09 .11 .19 -.18 -.13 -.07 -.15 -.16 1800 1849 -3 .00 .04 -.16 -.06 .08 -.07 .18 .51* .26 .11 .46|-.02 .20 -.15 .05 -.10 -.21 -.09 -.24 -.07 -.30 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .582) is: Lower 1987> -.014 1981< -.013 1794> -.012 1809< -.011 1813> -.010 1849< -.007 Higher 1892 .012 1837 .011 1771 to 1820 segment: Lower 1794> -.049 1813> -.042 1809< -.026 1804< -.024 1772> -.020 1774< -.018 Higher 1816 .058 1790 .039 1775 to 1824 segment: Lower 1794> -.060 1813> -.051 1804< -.025 1776> -.023 1809< -.021 1792< -.015 Higher 1816 .070 1790 .049 1800 to 1849 segment: Lower 1813> -.053 1809< -.050 1849< -.035 1804< -.028 1826< -.022 1823< -.014 Higher 1837 .082 1816 .043 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1794 +3.1 SD; 1987 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0010A 1823 to 2001 179 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .693) is: Lower 1833< -.008 1979< -.007 1965> -.007 1992< -.006 1930< -.006 1981> -.006 Higher 1910 .017 1837 .008 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0010B 1842 to 2001 160 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .630) is: Lower 1987> -.016 1874> -.012 1939< -.009 1965> -.008 1993< -.008 1949> -.008 Higher 1926 .013 1929 .011 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0011A 1845 to 2001 157 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .579) is: Lower 2001< -.046 1970< -.010 1888> -.010 1965> -.009 1942< -.009 1996> -.007 Higher 1929 .013 1946 .012 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0011B 1827 to 2001 175 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .693) is: Lower 1888> -.012 1878< -.011 1965> -.008 1989< -.007 1924< -.007 1940> -.005 Higher 1910 .010 1866 .008 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0012A 1831 to 2001 171 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .683) is: Lower 1999< -.027 1899< -.011 1862> -.008 1886< -.008 1996> -.007 1941< -.007 Higher 1926 .009 1898 .007 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0012B 1802 to 2001 200 years Series 18 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1802 1851 2 -.04 -.20 -.22 -.25 -.20 -.05 .23 .03 .09 .19 .39| .18 .39* .24 .14 .11 .12 -.12 -.02 -.18 -.25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .624) is: Lower 1996< -.012 1809> -.011 1810< -.007 1976< -.007 1984> -.007 1862> -.007 Higher 1910 .012 1892 .011 1802 to 1851 segment: Lower 1809> -.053 1810< -.038 1828> -.030 1851< -.021 1850< -.019 1811< -.017 Higher 1839 .076 1837 .027 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1996 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0013A 1734 to 2001 268 years Series 19 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1734 1783 -1 -.03 -.20 -.21 -.03 -.10 -.02 .33 .11 .31 .66* .09| .11 .31 .09 .12 .09 -.12 .04 -.16 -.26 -.25 1750 1799 -1 -.15 -.30 -.07 .03 -.06 .11 .22 .05 .29 .65* .19| .14 .37 .14 .18 .06 -.14 -.11 -.12 -.33 -.35 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .470) is: Lower 1734> -.012 1791< -.012 1782< -.009 1774< -.009 1752< -.008 1874< -.007 Higher 1964 .012 1910 .012 1734 to 1783 segment: Lower 1734> -.058 1782< -.046 1752< -.036 1774< -.032 1777< -.026 1738< -.026 Higher 1751 .046 1770 .041 1750 to 1799 segment: Lower 1791< -.055 1782< -.044 1752< -.034 1774< -.032 1777< -.025 1773> -.024 Higher 1799 .066 1751 .039 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1734 +3.1 SD; 1773 +3.0 SD; 1862 -4.9 SD; 1972 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0013B 1704 to 2001 298 years Series 20 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1704 1753 -10 .33* .10 -.22 .05 -.13 -.05 -.09 .02 -.07 .11 .31| .07 -.08 -.14 -.04 -.14 .03 .05 .03 .18 .10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .536) is: Lower 1946> -.012 1993< -.011 1717< -.008 1881> -.008 1704> -.007 1854< -.007 Higher 1837 .013 1965 .008 1704 to 1753 segment: Lower 1717< -.048 1704> -.044 1710< -.035 1721> -.028 1705< -.027 1738< -.022 Higher 1711 .051 1734 .037 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1734 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0014A 1711 to 2001 291 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .599) is: Lower 1728> -.013 1974> -.010 1808< -.008 1920> -.008 1748> -.006 1793> -.006 Higher 1910 .016 1892 .008 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1728 +3.6 SD; 1974 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0014B 1821 to 2001 181 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .679) is: Lower 1983< -.016 1940< -.007 1828< -.007 1851< -.006 1922< -.006 1880< -.006 Higher 1837 .011 1910 .009 =================================================================================================================================== PFC0015A 1717 to 2001 285 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .582) is: Lower 1769> -.015 1742< -.011 1762< -.009 1792< -.007 1981> -.005 1999> -.005 Higher 1964 .008 1929 .007 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1769 +3.9 SD; 1872 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PFC0015B 1831 to 2001 171 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .626) is: Lower 1999> -.017 1853< -.011 1996> -.011 1935< -.011 1892> -.009 1874> -.009 Higher 1839 .013 1929 .011 =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 14:09 Thu 08 Jan 2004 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 PFC0002A 1727 2001 275 11 0 .592 .42 1.12 .172 .834 .187 2.64 .409 -.006 1 2 PFC0002B 1714 2001 288 12 1 .573 .49 1.26 .195 .816 .188 2.78 .382 -.009 1 3 PFC0004A 1753 2001 249 10 3 .502 .45 1.09 .223 .802 .270 2.66 .348 .009 1 4 PFC0004B 1860 2001 142 6 0 .705 .63 1.36 .231 .694 .224 2.65 .522 -.002 1 5 PFC0005A 1714 2001 288 12 0 .605 .31 .63 .128 .779 .244 2.55 .340 -.018 1 6 PFC0005B 1826 2001 176 7 0 .544 .48 1.31 .251 .835 .270 2.60 .432 -.053 1 7 PFC0006A 1739 2001 263 11 0 .674 .29 1.27 .138 .755 .264 2.61 .406 -.039 4 8 PFC0006B 1681 2001 321 12 1 .668 .47 1.32 .244 .832 .254 2.72 .416 .019 1 9 PFC0007A 1816 2001 186 8 0 .595 .55 1.39 .210 .743 .236 2.53 .384 .004 1 10 PFC0007B 1813 2001 189 8 0 .523 .71 2.00 .339 .829 .231 2.76 .404 -.024 5 11 PFC0009A 1795 2001 207 9 0 .600 .51 1.49 .255 .828 .243 2.69 .368 -.007 1 12 PFC0009B 1771 2001 231 10 3 .582 .61 1.51 .307 .843 .239 2.58 .444 .023 1 13 PFC0010A 1823 2001 179 8 0 .693 .98 2.03 .339 .718 .200 2.81 .492 .006 2 14 PFC0010B 1842 2001 160 7 0 .630 1.09 2.15 .409 .811 .191 2.56 .507 -.034 1 15 PFC0011A 1845 2001 157 7 0 .579 .89 1.75 .309 .655 .222 2.59 .458 .005 2 16 PFC0011B 1827 2001 175 7 0 .693 .90 2.30 .319 .645 .229 2.77 .457 .016 1 17 PFC0012A 1831 2001 171 7 0 .683 .70 1.53 .279 .796 .197 2.66 .386 -.039 2 18 PFC0012B 1802 2001 200 8 1 .624 .59 1.28 .280 .867 .205 2.60 .382 .004 4 19 PFC0013A 1734 2001 268 11 2 .470 .48 1.47 .227 .754 .248 2.97 .397 .002 2 20 PFC0013B 1704 2001 298 12 1 .536 .52 1.06 .184 .688 .229 2.66 .404 -.002 1 21 PFC0014A 1711 2001 291 12 0 .599 .53 1.79 .347 .882 .254 2.66 .382 .022 2 22 PFC0014B 1821 2001 181 8 0 .679 .66 1.72 .269 .761 .215 2.74 .535 .005 2 23 PFC0015A 1717 2001 285 12 0 .582 .41 1.40 .224 .853 .229 2.96 .434 -.035 1 24 PFC0015B 1831 2001 171 7 0 .626 .67 1.19 .175 .658 .171 2.66 .463 -.003 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5351 222 12 .601 .56 2.30 .244 .785 .229 2.97 .416 -.006 - = [ COFECHA YLAT1COF ] = -