[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run BOROV Program COF 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25208 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS File of DATED series: borov.tu_ CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved C 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1590 to 2002 413 years Continuous time span is 1590 to 2002 413 years Portion with two or more series is 1590 to 2002 413 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 22 *C* *O* Master series 1590 2002 413 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5569 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5569 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .620 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .194 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 3 *A* *** Mean length of series 253.1 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> . PJA0001A 1 1790 2002 213 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> . PJA0001B 2 1790 2002 213 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PJA0002A 3 1713 2002 290 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PJA0002B 4 1713 2002 290 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PJA0003A 5 1718 2002 285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============================> . PJA0003B 6 1718 2002 285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================> . PJA0004A 7 1690 2002 313 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================> . PJA0004B 8 1690 2002 313 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. . PJA0005A 9 1695 1996 302 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================> . . PJA0005B 10 1695 1989 295 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . PJA0006A 11 1842 2002 161 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> . PJA0006B 12 1842 2002 161 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. . PJA0008A 13 1699 1990 292 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . . PJA0008B 14 1707 1978 272 . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================> . . PJA0009A 15 1590 1953 364 . . . . . . . . . . . <================================> . . . PJA0009B 16 1590 1929 340 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . PJA0010A 17 1856 2000 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . PJA0010B 18 1856 2000 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. . PJA0011A 19 1830 1999 170 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. . PJA0011B 20 1830 1999 170 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=========================> . . PJA0012A 21 1710 1979 270 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> . . PJA0012B 22 1707 1986 280 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1600 1.582 2 1650 .602 2 1700 -.109 7 1750 -1.022 14 1800 -.015 16 1601 -2.165 2 1651 1.286 2 1701 -.025 7 1751 -1.595 14 1801 .469 16 1602 .749 2 1652 1.436 2 1702 .793 7 1752 -.089 14 1802 1.160 16 1603 -.139 2 1653 2.103 2 1703 -.258 7 1753 .629 14 1803 .262 16 1604 .497 2 1654 .933 2 1704 1.344 7 1754 1.012 14 1804 .555 16 1605 .337 2 1655 1.674 2 1705 .734 7 1755 .720 14 1805 .234 16 1606 1.665 2 1656 -.097 2 1706 1.441 7 1756 1.136 14 1806 -3.571 16 1607 .225 2 1657 .105 2 1707 1.667 9 1757 2.127 14 1807 -.341 16 1608 1.121 2 1658 .004 2 1708 .834 9 1758 1.041 14 1808 .775 16 1609 -1.096 2 1659 -.582 2 1709 -.400 9 1759 .187 14 1809 .569 16 1610 -.349 2 1660 -.639 2 1710 -.213 10 1760 .402 14 1810 -1.267 16 1611 -.731 2 1661 -1.161 2 1711 -.096 10 1761 .491 14 1811 -.020 16 1612 -.133 2 1662 -.515 2 1712 -1.069 10 1762 .677 14 1812 .331 16 1613 -1.038 2 1663 -.112 2 1713 -1.804 12 1763 .676 14 1813 -1.340 16 1614 -.336 2 1664 -.850 2 1714 -.520 12 1764 -.132 14 1814 .566 16 1615 -1.502 2 1665 .901 2 1715 .701 12 1765 .291 14 1815 -.524 16 1616 -.218 2 1666 .048 2 1716 1.216 12 1766 -.116 14 1816 -.220 16 1617 1.273 2 1667 -1.086 2 1717 -.106 12 1767 .032 14 1817 .232 16 1618 1.772 2 1668 1.461 2 1718 .597 14 1768 -.330 14 1818 .704 16 1619 2.198 2 1669 -1.542 2 1719 -.992 14 1769 -1.325 14 1819 .898 16 1620 -.331 2 1670 -5.304 2 1720 .567 14 1770 -1.480 14 1820 -.834 16 1621 .733 2 1671 .205 2 1721 -.928 14 1771 -1.010 14 1821 -1.621 16 1622 -.676 2 1672 -.229 2 1722 -1.789 14 1772 -1.364 14 1822 -.642 16 1623 .956 2 1673 -.358 2 1723 -.298 14 1773 -2.395 14 1823 .489 16 1624 .597 2 1674 .803 2 1724 .394 14 1774 1.215 14 1824 .457 16 1625 -.195 2 1675 -.729 2 1725 1.528 14 1775 .372 14 1825 -.468 16 1626 -1.106 2 1676 -1.653 2 1726 .297 14 1776 -.917 14 1826 1.652 16 1627 -1.022 2 1677 -.462 2 1727 1.157 14 1777 -.599 14 1827 .949 16 1628 -1.274 2 1678 -.119 2 1728 .302 14 1778 .564 14 1828 -1.795 16 1629 -1.876 2 1679 .277 2 1729 1.179 14 1779 .167 14 1829 1.110 16 1630 -1.578 2 1680 -.348 2 1730 .996 14 1780 .904 14 1830 .579 18 1631 -.137 2 1681 1.195 2 1731 -.711 14 1781 -.035 14 1831 1.220 18 1632 1.065 2 1682 .718 2 1732 -.093 14 1782 .181 14 1832 .344 18 1633 .192 2 1683 .648 2 1733 .733 14 1783 .693 14 1833 1.551 18 1634 1.871 2 1684 2.686 2 1734 -.645 14 1784 1.276 14 1834 1.297 18 1635 .819 2 1685 .967 2 1735 -.982 14 1785 -.132 14 1835 -.097 18 1636 .462 2 1686 -.132 2 1736 .420 14 1786 -1.030 14 1836 -2.020 18 1637 1.093 2 1687 .380 2 1737 -.929 14 1787 -.266 14 1837 -2.050 18 1638 1.236 2 1688 .872 2 1738 .765 14 1788 .675 14 1838 -.462 18 1639 .530 2 1689 -.089 2 1739 .791 14 1789 1.126 14 1839 -.064 18 1590 -.224 2 1640 .618 2 1690 .712 4 1740 -.444 14 1790 -1.256 16 1840 .183 18 1591 .440 2 1641 -1.459 2 1691 -.581 4 1741 -2.560 14 1791 .182 16 1841 -.371 18 1592 1.381 2 1642 -.315 2 1692 1.328 4 1742 -.362 14 1792 1.400 16 1842 .455 20 1593 .532 2 1643 .877 2 1693 -.664 4 1743 -.149 14 1793 .668 16 1843 -.049 20 1594 .120 2 1644 -.691 2 1694 .906 4 1744 .404 14 1794 -1.251 16 1844 -2.353 20 1595 .602 2 1645 -1.256 2 1695 .628 6 1745 -.575 14 1795 -2.110 16 1845 -.867 20 1596 -1.488 2 1646 -3.008 2 1696 -2.706 6 1746 .009 14 1796 .583 16 1846 -1.190 20 1597 -.671 2 1647 -1.859 2 1697 -.541 6 1747 -1.144 14 1797 .252 16 1847 -1.114 20 1598 -1.339 2 1648 .135 2 1698 -.028 6 1748 .009 14 1798 .024 16 1848 -.053 20 1599 .732 2 1649 .217 2 1699 -2.112 7 1749 -1.167 14 1799 1.000 16 1849 1.074 20 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1850 1.173 20 1900 .162 22 1950 .929 21 2000 1.568 12 1851 1.296 20 1901 1.424 22 1951 .412 21 2001 .816 10 1852 1.120 20 1902 -.505 22 1952 -.694 21 2002 -.121 10 1853 .210 20 1903 -1.414 22 1953 .050 21 1854 .877 20 1904 -.673 22 1954 2.099 20 1855 1.023 20 1905 -.126 22 1955 1.228 20 1856 .102 22 1906 .410 22 1956 -.155 20 1857 -.867 22 1907 .105 22 1957 -.020 20 1858 -.251 22 1908 -.046 22 1958 -.882 20 1859 -1.015 22 1909 .324 22 1959 -.203 20 1860 -.073 22 1910 -1.477 22 1960 .160 20 1861 1.144 22 1911 -.599 22 1961 -1.151 20 1862 -.838 22 1912 1.006 22 1962 -.109 20 1863 -.138 22 1913 -1.115 22 1963 -1.004 20 1864 1.087 22 1914 1.004 22 1964 .594 20 1865 .793 22 1915 1.441 22 1965 -2.233 20 1866 .465 22 1916 .560 22 1966 -.591 20 1867 -.593 22 1917 .209 22 1967 .311 20 1868 -.063 22 1918 -.708 22 1968 .487 20 1869 .356 22 1919 -1.232 22 1969 -.035 20 1870 .736 22 1920 -1.260 22 1970 -.096 20 1871 -.370 22 1921 -.035 22 1971 -.642 20 1872 -1.145 22 1922 .589 22 1972 .043 20 1873 -.059 22 1923 1.336 22 1973 .490 20 1874 -1.151 22 1924 1.511 22 1974 .817 20 1875 .328 22 1925 .109 22 1975 .650 20 1876 -.467 22 1926 -1.633 22 1976 .336 20 1877 .824 22 1927 .922 22 1977 -.319 20 1878 .187 22 1928 .091 22 1978 .283 20 1879 -1.120 22 1929 -.057 22 1979 .188 19 1880 -1.795 22 1930 .466 21 1980 -.674 18 1881 -1.406 22 1931 -.280 21 1981 -.095 18 1882 .350 22 1932 .218 21 1982 -2.363 18 1883 -.411 22 1933 -.713 21 1983 1.102 18 1884 .189 22 1934 -.198 21 1984 .238 18 1885 1.197 22 1935 -1.044 21 1985 .056 18 1886 .801 22 1936 -.588 21 1986 .496 18 1887 .101 22 1937 -.024 21 1987 .460 17 1888 -.200 22 1938 -1.114 21 1988 1.390 17 1889 .448 22 1939 1.485 21 1989 1.163 17 1890 1.211 22 1940 .363 21 1990 -.405 16 1891 .597 22 1941 .048 21 1991 .364 15 1892 -.718 22 1942 -1.411 21 1992 -.715 15 1893 .984 22 1943 -.377 21 1993 -2.577 15 1894 .312 22 1944 .187 21 1994 -.996 15 1895 -1.263 22 1945 -.042 21 1995 -.286 15 1896 -.187 22 1946 -.075 21 1996 .468 15 1897 -.392 22 1947 .576 21 1997 -.442 14 1898 1.251 22 1948 .793 21 1998 .171 14 1899 .082 22 1949 .020 21 1999 -.081 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600----------F 1650-------B 1700----@ 1750-d 1800-----@ 1850---------E 1900-----A 1601i 1651----------E 1701----@ 1751f 1801-------B 1851----------E 1901----------F 1602--------C 1652----------F 1702--------C 1752----@ 1802---------E 1852---------D 1902--b 1603----a 1653----------H 1703---a 1753-------C 1803------A 1853------A 1903-f 1604-------B 1654---------D 1704----------E 1754---------D 1804-------B 1854--------D 1904--c 1605------A 1655----------G 1705--------C 1755--------C 1805------A 1855---------D 1905----a 1606----------G 1656----@ 1706----------F 1756---------E 1806n 1856-----@ 1906------B 1607------A 1657-----@ 1707----------G 1757----------I 1807---a 1857--c 1907-----@ 1608---------D 1658-----@ 1708--------C 1758---------D 1808--------C 1858---a 1908----@ 1609-d 1659--b 1709---b 1759------A 1809-------B 1859-d 1909------A 1610---a 1660--c 1710----a 1760------B 1810-e 1860----@ 1910f 1611--c 1661-e 1711----@ 1761-------B 1811-----@ 1861---------E 1911--b 1612----a 1662--b 1712-d 1762--------C 1812------A 1862--c 1912---------D 1613-d 1663----@ 1713g 1763--------C 1813-e 1863----a 1913-d 1614---a 1664--c 1714--b 1764----a 1814-------B 1864---------D 1914---------D 1615f 1665--------D 1715--------C 1765------A 1815--b 1865--------C 1915----------F 1616---a 1666-----@ 1716---------E 1766----@ 1816---a 1866-------B 1916-------B 1617----------E 1667-d 1717----@ 1767-----@ 1817------A 1867--b 1917------A 1618----------G 1668----------F 1718-------B 1768---a 1818--------C 1868----@ 1918--c 1619----------I 1669f 1719-d 1769-e 1819--------D 1869------A 1919-e 1620---a 1670u 1720-------B 1770f 1820--c 1870--------C 1920-e 1621--------C 1671------A 1721-d 1771-d 1821f 1871---a 1921----@ 1622--c 1672---a 1722g 1772-e 1822--c 1872-e 1922-------B 1623---------D 1673---a 1723---a 1773j 1823-------B 1873----@ 1923----------E 1624-------B 1674--------C 1724------B 1774---------E 1824-------B 1874-e 1924----------F 1625----a 1675--c 1725----------F 1775------A 1825---b 1875------A 1925-----@ 1626-d 1676g 1726------A 1776-d 1826----------G 1876---b 1926g 1627-d 1677---b 1727---------E 1777--b 1827---------D 1877--------C 1927---------D 1628-e 1678----@ 1728------A 1778-------B 1828g 1878------A 1928-----@ 1629h 1679------A 1729---------E 1779-----A 1829---------D 1879-d 1929----@ 1630f 1680---a 1730---------D 1780--------D 1830-------B 1880g 1930-------B 1631----a 1681---------E 1731--c 1781----@ 1831---------E 1881-f 1931---a 1632---------D 1682--------C 1732----@ 1782------A 1832------A 1882------A 1932------A 1633------A 1683--------C 1733--------C 1783--------C 1833----------F 1883---b 1933--c 1634----------G 1684----------K 1734--c 1784----------E 1834----------E 1884------A 1934----a 1635--------C 1685---------D 1735-d 1785----a 1835----@ 1885---------E 1935-d 1636-------B 1686----a 1736-------B 1786-d 1836h 1886--------C 1936--b 1637---------D 1687------B 1737-d 1787---a 1837h 1887-----@ 1937----@ 1638---------E 1688--------C 1738--------C 1788--------C 1838---b 1888----a 1938-d 1639-------B 1689----@ 1739--------C 1789---------E 1839----@ 1889-------B 1939----------F 1590---a 1640-------B 1690--------C 1740---b 1790-e 1840------A 1890---------E 1940------A 1591-------B 1641f 1691--b 1741j 1791------A 1841---a 1891-------B 1941-----@ 1592----------F 1642---a 1692----------E 1742---a 1792----------F 1842-------B 1892--c 1942-f 1593-------B 1643--------D 1693--c 1743----a 1793--------C 1843----@ 1893---------D 1943---b 1594-----@ 1644--c 1694--------D 1744------B 1794-e 1844i 1894------A 1944------A 1595-------B 1645-e 1695-------C 1745--b 1795h 1845--c 1895-e 1945----@ 1596f 1646l 1696k 1746-----@ 1796-------B 1846-e 1896----a 1946----@ 1597--c 1647g 1697--b 1747-e 1797------A 1847-d 1897---b 1947-------B 1598-e 1648-----A 1698----@ 1748-----@ 1798-----@ 1848----@ 1898---------E 1948--------C 1599--------C 1649------A 1699h 1749-e 1799---------D 1849---------D 1899-----@ 1949-----@ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1950---------D 2000----------F 1951------B 2001--------C 1952--c 2002----@ 1953-----@ 1954----------H 1955---------E 1956----a 1957-----@ 1958--d 1959----a 1960-----A 1961-e 1962----@ 1963-d 1964-------B 1965i 1966--b 1967------A 1968-------B 1969----@ 1970----@ 1971--c 1972-----@ 1973-------B 1974--------C 1975--------C 1976------A 1977---a 1978------A 1979------A 1980--c 1981----@ 1982i 1983---------D 1984------A 1985-----@ 1986-------B 1987-------B 1988----------F 1989---------E 1990---b 1991------A 1992--c 1993j 1994-d 1995---a 1996-------B 1997---b 1998-----A 1999----@ PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 PJA0001A 1790 2002 .58 .59 .71 .55 .61 .74 .73 .74 .75 2 PJA0001B 1790 2002 .59 .62 .62 .44 .58 .69 .57 .53 .53 3 PJA0002A 1713 2002 .61 .67 .67 .69 .75 .78 .55 .55 .64 .65 .68 .66 4 PJA0002B 1713 2002 .66 .60 .64 .56 .69 .74 .51 .52 .62 .72 .62 .62 5 PJA0003A 1718 2002 .63 .59 .64 .73 .83 .71 .50 .59 .67 .71 .66 .65 6 PJA0003B 1718 2002 .53 .57 .78 .80 .83 .70 .56 .55 .53 .66 .64 .66 7 PJA0004A 1690 2002 .69 .67 .60 .65 .74 .77 .64 .49 .59 .58 .44 .39 .40 8 PJA0004B 1690 2002 .80 .70 .66 .58 .74 .79 .68 .55 .65 .67 .56 .56 .56 9 PJA0005A 1695 1996 .77 .74 .72 .71 .70 .75 .71 .64 .68 .68 .41 .41 10 PJA0005B 1695 1989 .65 .70 .70 .72 .59 .58 .62 .58 .65 .64 .45 .38 11 PJA0006A 1842 2002 .73 .65 .74 .60 .50 .61 .63 12 PJA0006B 1842 2002 .54 .54 .51 .55 .49 .46 .48 13 PJA0008A 1699 1990 .57 .57 .69 .67 .77 .82 .67 .70 .73 .56 .62 .52 14 PJA0008B 1707 1978 .73 .69 .67 .73 .74 .56 .53 .69 .67 .69 .70 15 PJA0009A 1590 1953 .62 .71 .74 .69 .67 .58 .42 .45 .64 .73 .72 .50 .48 .20B .18B 16 PJA0009B 1590 1929 .62 .71 .74 .73 .67 .63 .61 .68 .73 .76 .66 .51 .53 .50 17 PJA0010A 1856 2000 .58 .64 .52 .48 .70 .71 18 PJA0010B 1856 2000 .43 .53 .56 .57 .69 .66 19 PJA0011A 1830 1999 .68 .26B .37 .62 .49 .60 20 PJA0011B 1830 1999 .50 .34 .49 .59 .61 .71 21 PJA0012A 1710 1979 .67 .68 .75 .73 .76 .69 .50 .66 .71 .56 .49 22 PJA0012B 1707 1986 .64 .69 .72 .84 .87 .68 .57 .55 .49 .57 .63 Av segment correlation .62 .71 .74 .71 .69 .65 .64 .67 .70 .74 .67 .52 .59 .59 .55 .59 .61 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== PJA0001A 1790 to 2002 213 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .655) is: Lower 1805< -.017 1828> -.016 1970< -.010 1881> -.007 1876> -.007 1989< -.006 Higher 1982 .018 1965 .018 =================================================================================================================================== PJA0001B 1790 to 2002 213 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .553) is: Lower 1859< -.038 1975< -.016 1959< -.015 1821> -.011 1876> -.010 1942> -.007 Higher 1844 .018 1965 .008 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1821 +3.4 SD; 1859 -5.0 SD; 1876 +3.4 SD; 1959 -5.0 SD; 1975 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0002A 1713 to 2002 290 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .633) is: Lower 1938< -.008 2001< -.007 1876< -.007 1881> -.007 1719> -.006 1773> -.005 Higher 1965 .017 1790 .005 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1881 +3.4 SD; 1970 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0002B 1713 to 2002 290 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .633) is: Lower 1806> -.011 1923< -.010 1745< -.007 1982> -.006 1797< -.006 1765< -.006 Higher 1844 .010 1828 .007 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1806 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0003A 1718 to 2002 285 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .655) is: Lower 1976< -.017 1741> -.013 1898< -.011 1772> -.007 1860< -.006 1918> -.005 Higher 1965 .015 1982 .013 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1741 +3.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0003B 1718 to 2002 285 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .640) is: Lower 1747< -.011 1741> -.009 1993> -.008 1740> -.006 1735< -.006 1913> -.005 Higher 1965 .015 1806 .015 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1741 +3.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0004A 1690 to 2002 313 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .609) is: Lower 1973< -.011 1982> -.008 1974< -.006 1749> -.005 1795> -.005 1859> -.005 Higher 1806 .028 1696 .008 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1736 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0004B 1690 to 2002 313 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .673) is: Lower 1969< -.012 1963> -.007 1794> -.004 1972< -.004 1865< -.004 1977> -.004 Higher 1806 .023 1965 .008 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1806 -4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0005A 1695 to 1996 302 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .657) is: Lower 1965> -.021 1975< -.012 1977> -.006 1961> -.006 1828> -.006 1859> -.005 Higher 1806 .011 1844 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1965 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0005B 1695 to 1989 295 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .590) is: Lower 1806> -.018 1828> -.011 1965> -.009 1977> -.007 1952> -.006 1976< -.006 Higher 1741 .011 1844 .008 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1696 +3.3 SD; 1806 +4.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0006A 1842 to 2002 161 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .644) is: Lower 1940< -.016 1933> -.011 1966< -.011 1990< -.010 1992> -.010 1868< -.008 Higher 1993 .024 1844 .020 =================================================================================================================================== PJA0006B 1842 to 2002 161 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .520) is: Lower 1982> -.022 1886< -.016 1926> -.011 1957< -.011 1846> -.008 1877< -.008 Higher 1993 .026 1844 .012 =================================================================================================================================== PJA0008A 1699 to 1990 292 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .642) is: Lower 1977< -.014 1938> -.011 1990> -.007 1722> -.006 1747> -.006 1762< -.006 Higher 1806 .022 1965 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1938 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0008B 1707 to 1978 272 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .663) is: Lower 1963< -.012 1850< -.009 1778< -.007 1821> -.007 1856> -.006 1844> -.006 Higher 1806 .020 1965 .013 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1856 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0009A 1590 to 1953 364 years Series 15 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1900 1949 1 -.12 -.13 .24 -.15 .17 -.04 -.27 .00 -.24 .11 .20| .41* .04 -.08 -.09 -.02 -.04 .07 .23 .04 .13 1904 1953 1 -.06 -.07 .17 -.20 .16 .05 -.34 .03 -.22 .03 .18| .39*-.01 -.12 -.05 .00 -.01 .01 .19 .10 .13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .575) is: Lower 1772< -.011 1938> -.007 1942> -.006 1913> -.006 1934< -.006 1820> -.006 Higher 1806 .024 1670 .020 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1938> -.055 1942> -.050 1913> -.047 1934< -.040 1901< -.022 1940> -.013 Higher 1903 .050 1914 .040 1904 to 1953 segment: Lower 1938> -.059 1942> -.054 1913> -.050 1934< -.037 1951< -.015 1940> -.014 Higher 1910 .043 1914 .043 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1772 1773 4.1 SD [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1696 -4.5 SD; 1772 -6.2 SD; 1806 -4.6 SD; 1934 -4.6 SD; 1938 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0009B 1590 to 1929 340 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .629) is: Lower 1903< -.014 1929< -.009 1749< -.007 1880> -.007 1731> -.006 1863< -.005 Higher 1670 .018 1806 .014 =================================================================================================================================== PJA0010A 1856 to 2000 145 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .627) is: Lower 1903> -.021 1933> -.011 1882< -.007 1958> -.007 1897> -.006 1939< -.006 Higher 1993 .025 1965 .014 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1903 +3.3 SD; 1934 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0010B 1856 to 2000 145 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .536) is: Lower 1899< -.020 1938> -.017 1935> -.012 1870< -.010 1895> -.010 2000< -.009 Higher 1965 .028 1910 .012 =================================================================================================================================== PJA0011A 1830 to 1999 170 years Series 19 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1899 -2 .00 -.04 -.15 -.17 -.19 .06 -.32 -.11 .37*-.10 .26|-.01 .08 .05 -.25 .20 .16 .00 .02 -.07 -.05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .490) is: Lower 1897< -.109 1971> -.013 1880> -.010 1886< -.008 1855< -.008 1873< -.008 Higher 1982 .019 1993 .018 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1897< -.173 1880> -.029 1855< -.017 1886< -.015 1873< -.013 1883> -.013 Higher 1898 .028 1885 .027 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1896 1897 -5.5 SD 1897 1898 4.2 SD [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1897 -8.5 SD; 1971 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0011B 1830 to 1999 170 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .564) is: Lower 1890< -.014 1895> -.014 1855< -.012 1961> -.012 1939< -.011 1994> -.010 Higher 1982 .035 1965 .031 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1993 1994 4.3 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1994 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0012A 1710 to 1979 270 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .649) is: Lower 1880< -.014 1866< -.008 1747> -.007 1856> -.005 1764> -.005 1970< -.005 Higher 1844 .012 1828 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1880 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PJA0012B 1707 to 1986 280 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .666) is: Lower 1922< -.012 1965> -.008 1918< -.008 1913> -.007 1938> -.006 1859> -.006 Higher 1806 .024 1982 .010 =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 11:02 Mon 05 Jan 2004 Page 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 PJA0001A 1790 2002 213 9 0 .655 .54 1.82 .343 .926 .184 2.83 .471 -.019 1 2 PJA0001B 1790 2002 213 9 0 .553 .57 1.59 .294 .900 .172 2.59 .296 -.024 1 3 PJA0002A 1713 2002 290 12 0 .633 .56 1.42 .228 .861 .170 2.81 .407 -.017 1 4 PJA0002B 1713 2002 290 12 0 .633 .49 1.26 .216 .834 .191 2.82 .429 -.013 1 5 PJA0003A 1718 2002 285 12 0 .655 .49 1.47 .272 .914 .179 2.72 .374 -.027 2 6 PJA0003B 1718 2002 285 12 0 .640 .56 1.51 .240 .868 .169 2.65 .395 -.031 1 7 PJA0004A 1690 2002 313 13 0 .609 .35 1.02 .156 .796 .224 2.66 .362 .011 1 8 PJA0004B 1690 2002 313 13 0 .673 .37 1.26 .207 .893 .209 2.44 .286 -.046 1 9 PJA0005A 1695 1996 302 12 0 .657 .39 1.06 .164 .703 .242 2.76 .441 .014 1 10 PJA0005B 1695 1989 295 12 0 .590 .48 1.09 .214 .840 .205 2.61 .364 .007 1 11 PJA0006A 1842 2002 161 7 0 .644 .67 1.52 .289 .883 .155 2.68 .492 .019 1 12 PJA0006B 1842 2002 161 7 0 .520 .68 1.82 .301 .908 .128 2.52 .354 -.017 1 13 PJA0008A 1699 1990 292 12 0 .642 .38 1.70 .277 .938 .201 2.50 .347 -.012 1 14 PJA0008B 1707 1978 272 11 0 .663 .41 1.35 .226 .884 .204 2.62 .314 -.020 2 15 PJA0009A 1590 1953 364 15 2 .575 .33 1.62 .272 .946 .199 2.43 .280 -.006 1 16 PJA0009B 1590 1929 340 14 0 .629 .32 1.16 .204 .926 .187 2.74 .353 -.016 2 17 PJA0010A 1856 2000 145 6 0 .627 .78 1.41 .243 .730 .183 2.65 .427 -.045 2 18 PJA0010B 1856 2000 145 6 0 .536 .86 1.78 .317 .798 .193 2.85 .532 -.030 2 19 PJA0011A 1830 1999 170 6 1 .490 .59 1.52 .348 .925 .181 2.35 .262 -.047 1 20 PJA0011B 1830 1999 170 6 0 .564 .68 1.69 .414 .920 .187 2.51 .370 -.019 1 21 PJA0012A 1710 1979 270 11 0 .649 .40 1.50 .224 .865 .218 2.62 .353 -.003 1 22 PJA0012B 1707 1986 280 11 0 .666 .38 1.12 .190 .848 .218 2.53 .335 -.008 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5569 228 3 .620 .48 1.82 .245 .870 .194 2.85 .368 -.015 - = [ COFECHA BOROVCOF ] = -