[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run KAARE Program COF 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25230 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS File of DATED series: kaares.tu_ CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved C 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1803 to 1992 190 years Continuous time span is 1803 to 1992 190 years Portion with two or more series is 1803 to 1992 190 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 47 *C* *O* Master series 1803 1992 190 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5870 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5870 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .591 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .232 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 17 *A* *** Mean length of series 124.9 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0001B 1 1874 1992 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. . MFC0003B 2 1828 1992 165 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. . MFC0003C 3 1817 1992 176 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0004A 4 1889 1992 104 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . MFC0004B 5 1863 1992 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. . MFC0005A 6 1848 1992 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. . MFC0005B 7 1847 1992 146 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. . MFC0006A 8 1837 1992 156 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . MFC0006C 9 1854 1992 139 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0008A 10 1884 1992 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. . MFC0008B 11 1803 1992 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0010A 12 1888 1992 105 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. . MFC0010B 13 1827 1992 166 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. . MFC0011A 14 1829 1992 164 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. . MFC0011B 15 1803 1992 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . MFC0012A 16 1865 1992 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. . MFC0012B 17 1844 1992 149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0014A 18 1890 1992 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . MFC0014B 19 1860 1992 133 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . MFC0015A 20 1856 1992 137 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. . MFC0015B 21 1849 1992 144 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0016A 22 1896 1992 97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0016B 23 1884 1992 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0017A 24 1899 1992 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . MFC0017B 25 1903 1992 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0018A 26 1883 1992 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0018B 27 1891 1992 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0020A 28 1874 1992 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0020B 29 1876 1992 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0021A 30 1879 1992 114 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0021B 31 1893 1992 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0022A 32 1876 1992 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . MFC0022B 33 1866 1992 127 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0023A 34 1885 1992 108 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . MFC0023B 35 1874 1992 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0024A 36 1887 1992 106 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0024B 37 1891 1992 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0025A 38 1883 1992 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0025B 39 1885 1992 108 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . MFC0026B 40 1905 1992 88 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . MFC0028A 41 1891 1992 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0028B 42 1883 1992 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . MFC0029A 43 1902 1992 91 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. . MFC0030A 44 1828 1992 165 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. . MFC0030B 45 1846 1992 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0031A 46 1880 1992 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. . MFC0031B 47 1886 1992 107 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 PART 3: Master Dating Series: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1850 -.596 13 1900 -.200 44 1950 1.021 47 1851 .515 13 1901 2.564 44 1951 .132 47 1852 .491 13 1902 .121 45 1952 -.047 47 1803 .620 2 1853 .731 13 1903 -2.145 46 1953 1.629 47 1804 1.267 2 1854 1.101 14 1904 -1.209 46 1954 .934 47 1805 1.431 2 1855 1.614 14 1905 -.954 47 1955 .009 47 1806 .673 2 1856 .235 15 1906 -.236 47 1956 -.501 47 1807 2.269 2 1857 -.646 15 1907 -.051 47 1957 1.043 47 1808 .027 2 1858 -.624 15 1908 .754 47 1958 -1.113 47 1809 -.642 2 1859 -.188 15 1909 -1.382 47 1959 .884 47 1810 .224 2 1860 .337 16 1910 -1.385 47 1960 1.684 47 1811 -.948 2 1861 .513 16 1911 -1.746 47 1961 -1.401 47 1812 -1.488 2 1862 .256 16 1912 -.161 47 1962 .030 47 1813 -3.579 2 1863 .122 17 1913 -.146 47 1963 -2.087 47 1814 -1.447 2 1864 .127 17 1914 .642 47 1964 1.558 47 1815 -1.433 2 1865 .450 18 1915 .613 47 1965 -.916 47 1816 -.079 2 1866 .619 19 1916 .506 47 1966 -.369 47 1817 1.388 3 1867 -.003 19 1917 -1.369 47 1967 -.006 47 1818 -.261 3 1868 -.239 19 1918 .783 47 1968 -.255 47 1819 -.944 3 1869 -1.415 19 1919 .338 47 1969 .650 47 1820 -.662 3 1870 -1.034 19 1920 .412 47 1970 .302 47 1821 -.063 3 1871 -.313 19 1921 -.283 47 1971 -1.100 47 1822 -.720 3 1872 .747 19 1922 .893 47 1972 .116 47 1823 -.645 3 1873 .832 19 1923 .854 47 1973 .880 47 1824 -.211 3 1874 -.819 22 1924 1.353 47 1974 -.946 47 1825 .318 3 1875 .470 22 1925 1.652 47 1975 -.609 47 1826 .697 3 1876 1.228 24 1926 .195 47 1976 1.175 47 1827 1.254 4 1877 .809 24 1927 .632 47 1977 .022 47 1828 1.350 6 1878 -.907 24 1928 -1.331 47 1978 -.699 47 1829 .198 7 1879 -.525 25 1929 -1.371 47 1979 1.429 47 1830 .717 7 1880 -.839 26 1930 1.653 47 1980 1.009 47 1831 1.755 7 1881 -1.795 26 1931 -.761 47 1981 -1.332 47 1832 1.095 7 1882 -.141 26 1932 -1.282 47 1982 .531 47 1833 .117 7 1883 .227 29 1933 .119 47 1983 .840 47 1834 .139 7 1884 -.747 31 1934 1.492 47 1984 -1.016 47 1835 -1.350 7 1885 -.738 33 1935 -.538 47 1985 1.654 47 1836 .081 7 1886 .578 34 1936 -1.630 47 1986 .431 47 1837 -.560 8 1887 .997 35 1937 1.174 47 1987 -.899 47 1838 -1.395 8 1888 -.592 36 1938 .280 47 1988 .722 47 1839 -2.318 8 1889 -.135 37 1939 -1.123 47 1989 .237 47 1840 -2.142 8 1890 1.160 38 1940 -1.131 47 1990 -.533 47 1841 -.618 8 1891 1.187 41 1941 1.099 47 1991 -.381 47 1842 -.304 8 1892 -.861 41 1942 .056 47 1992 -.449 47 1843 -.337 8 1893 -.980 42 1943 -.420 47 1844 .143 9 1894 .127 42 1944 -.170 47 1845 .683 9 1895 1.250 42 1945 -.661 47 1846 .227 10 1896 .232 43 1946 -2.933 47 1847 .633 11 1897 .520 43 1947 -.360 47 1848 -.057 12 1898 1.364 43 1948 1.060 47 1849 .195 13 1899 .522 44 1949 .944 47 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1850---b 1900----a 1950---------D 1851-------B 1901----------J 1951-----A 1852-------B 1902-----@ 1952----@ 1803-------B 1853--------C 1903i 1953----------G 1804---------E 1854---------D 1904-e 1954--------D 1805----------F 1855----------F 1905-d 1955-----@ 1806--------C 1856------A 1906----a 1956---b 1807----------I 1857--c 1907----@ 1957---------D 1808-----@ 1858--b 1908--------C 1958-d 1809--c 1859----a 1909f 1959--------D 1810------A 1860------A 1910f 1960----------G 1811-d 1861-------B 1911g 1961f 1812f 1862------A 1912----a 1962-----@ 1813n 1863-----@ 1913----a 1963h 1814f 1864-----A 1914-------C 1964----------F 1815f 1865-------B 1915-------B 1965--d 1816----@ 1866-------B 1916-------B 1966---a 1817----------F 1867-----@ 1917e 1967-----@ 1818----a 1868----a 1918--------C 1968----a 1819-d 1869f 1919------A 1969-------C 1820--c 1870-d 1920-------B 1970------A 1821----@ 1871----a 1921----a 1971-d 1822--c 1872--------C 1922--------D 1972-----@ 1823--c 1873--------C 1923--------C 1973--------D 1824----a 1874--c 1924---------E 1974-d 1825------A 1875-------B 1925----------G 1975---b 1826--------C 1876---------E 1926------A 1976---------E 1827---------E 1877--------C 1927-------C 1977-----@ 1828---------E 1878--d 1928e 1978--c 1829------A 1879---b 1929e 1979----------F 1830--------C 1880--c 1930----------G 1980---------D 1831----------G 1881g 1931--c 1981e 1832---------D 1882----a 1932-e 1982-------B 1833-----@ 1883------A 1933-----@ 1983--------C 1834-----A 1884--c 1934----------F 1984-d 1835e 1885--c 1935---b 1985----------G 1836-----@ 1886-------B 1936g 1986-------B 1837---b 1887---------D 1937---------E 1987--d 1838f 1888---b 1938------A 1988--------C 1839i 1889----a 1939-d 1989------A 1840i 1890---------E 1940-e 1990---b 1841---b 1891---------E 1941---------D 1991---b 1842----a 1892--c 1942-----@ 1992---b 1843---a 1893-d 1943---b 1844-----A 1894-----A 1944----a 1845--------C 1895---------E 1945--c 1846------A 1896------A 1946l 1847-------C 1897-------B 1947---a 1848----@ 1898----------E 1948---------D 1849------A 1899-------B 1949---------D PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 MFC0001B 1874 1992 .16B .20B .42 .56 .52 2 MFC0003B 1828 1992 .58 .40 .46 .75 .80 .73 3 MFC0003C 1817 1992 .31A .40 .44 .47 .68 .73 .74 4 MFC0004A 1889 1992 .63 .65 .76 .68 5 MFC0004B 1863 1992 .53 .63 .75 .71 .67 6 MFC0005A 1848 1992 .15B .15B .46 .67 .65 .50 7 MFC0005B 1847 1992 .11B .22B .39 .62 .66 .67 8 MFC0006A 1837 1992 .09B .31A .58 .67 .72 .74 9 MFC0006C 1854 1992 .49 .56 .67 .74 .76 10 MFC0008A 1884 1992 .50 .56 .66 .69 11 MFC0008B 1803 1992 .12B .34 .47 .53 .54 .61 .50 12 MFC0010A 1888 1992 .57 .63 .67 .70 13 MFC0010B 1827 1992 .23B .31A .67 .78 .76 .74 14 MFC0011A 1829 1992 .55 .50 .58 .59 .64 .61 15 MFC0011B 1803 1992 .17A .41 .47 .68 .65 .63 .69 16 MFC0012A 1865 1992 .59 .60 .60 .64 .68 17 MFC0012B 1844 1992 .35 .47 .68 .73 .68 .68 18 MFC0014A 1890 1992 .74 .79 .83 .75 19 MFC0014B 1860 1992 .59 .79 .83 .80 .72 20 MFC0015A 1856 1992 .52 .67 .85 .70 .72 21 MFC0015B 1849 1992 .27B .24B .57 .69 .70 .74 22 MFC0016A 1896 1992 .69 .73 .67 .60 23 MFC0016B 1884 1992 .61 .65 .57 .55 24 MFC0017A 1899 1992 .76 .75 .64 .61 25 MFC0017B 1903 1992 .65 .71 .69 26 MFC0018A 1883 1992 .72 .66 .64 .44 27 MFC0018B 1891 1992 .68 .65 .58 .58 28 MFC0020A 1874 1992 .66 .65 .74 .41 .26A 29 MFC0020B 1876 1992 .60 .72 .64 .59 30 MFC0021A 1879 1992 .69 .66 .69 .60 31 MFC0021B 1893 1992 .66 .67 .70 .68 32 MFC0022A 1876 1992 .68 .61 .59 .57 33 MFC0022B 1866 1992 .53 .56 .62 .62 .52 34 MFC0023A 1885 1992 .68 .72 .67 .60 35 MFC0023B 1874 1992 .35 .37 .61 .66 .50 36 MFC0024A 1887 1992 .53 .54 .59 .59 37 MFC0024B 1891 1992 .67 .72 .75 .66 38 MFC0025A 1883 1992 .72 .69 .65 .55 39 MFC0025B 1885 1992 .69 .61 .52 .48 40 MFC0026B 1905 1992 .46 .59 .54 41 MFC0028A 1891 1992 .56 .53 .62 .56 42 MFC0028B 1883 1992 .72 .78 .77 .64 43 MFC0029A 1902 1992 .52 .63 .58 44 MFC0030A 1828 1992 .32A .50 .76 .71 .72 .67 45 MFC0030B 1846 1992 .58 .62 .67 .64 .64 .63 46 MFC0031A 1880 1992 .76 .70 .63 .67 47 MFC0031B 1886 1992 .69 .77 .70 .64 Av segment correlation .20 .34 .43 .62 .67 .67 .62 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== MFC0001B 1874 to 1992 119 years Series 1 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1874 1923 -1 -.01 .00 -.11 .18 .12 .04 .05 -.25 -.08 .38* .16|-.13 .02 -.07 -.14 -.18 .01 -.12 .19 -.27 .08 1875 1924 -1 -.02 -.02 -.13 .19 .12 .08 .07 -.26 -.11 .37* .20|-.15 -.01 -.09 -.10 -.17 .03 -.07 .18 -.28 .11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .392) is: Lower 1902> -.027 1875< -.018 1874> -.018 1957< -.016 1961> -.016 1917> -.014 Higher 1909 .024 1946 .022 1874 to 1923 segment: Lower 1902> -.068 1874> -.047 1875< -.037 1917> -.036 1915< -.027 1918< -.022 Higher 1909 .116 1903 .033 1875 to 1924 segment: Lower 1902> -.077 1917> -.041 1875< -.037 1915< -.026 1884> -.024 1878> -.024 Higher 1909 .115 1903 .031 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0003B 1828 to 1992 165 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .619) is: Lower 1896< -.029 1843> -.017 1981> -.012 1888> -.011 1837> -.011 1976< -.008 Higher 1946 .020 1963 .016 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1843 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0003C 1817 to 1992 176 years Series 3 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1817 1866 0 .18 .02 .05 .14 .08 .21 .05 -.03 -.20 .06 .31* .09 .09 .11 .25 .18 .26 .03 -.18 -.16 -.05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .572) is: Lower 1874< -.017 1824> -.013 1892> -.009 1887< -.008 1971> -.008 1935> -.007 Higher 1946 .023 1961 .019 1817 to 1866 segment: Lower 1824> -.068 1844< -.034 1830< -.023 1834< -.021 1863< -.020 1841> -.018 Higher 1855 .039 1831 .033 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0004A 1889 to 1992 104 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .661) is: Lower 1975< -.040 1909> -.014 1981> -.011 1976< -.010 1905> -.009 1931> -.008 Higher 1963 .023 1903 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0004B 1863 to 1992 130 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .642) is: Lower 1968< -.016 1893> -.009 1870> -.008 1892> -.008 1976< -.008 1869> -.008 Higher 1946 .017 1901 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0005A 1848 to 1992 145 years Series 6 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1848 1897 -1 -.03 -.15 .22 .05 .06 .12 .17 -.20 -.03 .42* .15|-.08 -.09 -.08 -.02 -.07 .07 -.06 .09 .04 .05 1850 1899 -1 -.07 -.17 .22 .02 .02 .11 .21 -.18 -.01 .45* .15|-.09 -.05 -.08 -.07 -.09 .08 -.04 .08 .04 .01 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .479) is: Lower 1978< -.017 1976< -.017 1874> -.017 1875< -.015 1946> -.013 1886< -.012 Higher 1901 .018 1981 .016 1848 to 1897 segment: Lower 1874> -.060 1878> -.044 1875< -.041 1886< -.038 1881> -.038 1887< -.034 Higher 1855 .047 1888 .038 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1874> -.058 1878> -.041 1875< -.040 1886< -.037 1881> -.035 1887< -.033 Higher 1855 .044 1888 .039 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0005B 1847 to 1992 146 years Series 7 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1847 1896 -1 .11 -.04 .20 .23 .16 .11 .15 -.21 .02 .33* .11| .00 .03 -.14 -.18 -.09 .05 -.07 -.02 .03 .00 1850 1899 -1 .06 -.12 .20 .20 .10 .03 .14 -.14 .09 .35* .22| .00 .06 -.08 -.13 -.19 -.02 -.07 .03 .03 -.02 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .522) is: Lower 1881> -.018 1878> -.016 1847< -.016 1935> -.012 1874> -.011 1887< -.011 Higher 1963 .022 1946 .013 1847 to 1896 segment: Lower 1881> -.067 1878> -.057 1847< -.048 1874> -.041 1887< -.035 1886< -.027 Higher 1855 .042 1888 .038 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1881> -.069 1878> -.058 1874> -.041 1887< -.040 1886< -.031 1875< -.024 Higher 1898 .039 1888 .036 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0006A 1837 to 1992 156 years Series 8 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1837 1886 1 .04 -.12 .14 -.02 -.03 .10 .11 .10 -.19 -.18 .09| .16* .03 .05 .08 .02 -.11 .11 .02 -.14 -.11 1850 1899 0 -.02 -.05 .19 .25 .08 .02 .07 -.02 -.20 .02 .31* .10 -.13 .11 .20 -.15 -.21 -.03 .02 -.21 .06 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .581) is: Lower 1928> -.015 1843< -.015 1839> -.013 1840> -.010 1877< -.009 1929> -.008 Higher 1963 .024 1903 .011 1837 to 1886 segment: Lower 1839> -.032 1840> -.032 1877< -.032 1843< -.024 1886< -.021 1880> -.019 Higher 1872 .042 1838 .032 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1877< -.037 1852> -.027 1880> -.026 1886< -.025 1876< -.025 1871> -.023 Higher 1898 .040 1884 .031 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0006C 1854 to 1992 139 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .628) is: Lower 1874> -.020 1928> -.013 1976< -.011 1909> -.008 1929> -.008 1910> -.008 Higher 1963 .019 1901 .016 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0008A 1884 to 1992 109 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .611) is: Lower 1913< -.038 1917> -.014 1933< -.012 1928> -.011 1926> -.009 1950< -.007 Higher 1946 .026 1961 .023 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0008B 1803 to 1992 190 years Series 11 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1803 1852 5 - - - - - - - - - - .12| .31 .10 .26 .21 .34*-.08 .03 -.20 -.22 -.08 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .407) is: Lower 1808< -.035 1983< -.019 1974> -.012 1807> -.008 1904> -.007 1915< -.007 Higher 1961 .021 1963 .017 1803 to 1852 segment: Lower 1808< -.105 1820> -.016 1838> -.016 1814> -.013 1807> -.012 1843> -.011 Higher 1813 .063 1828 .021 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1983 1984 4.2 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1983 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0010A 1888 to 1992 105 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .649) is: Lower 1928> -.022 1935> -.021 1992< -.014 1987> -.013 1919< -.011 1974> -.010 Higher 1961 .020 1946 .019 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0010B 1827 to 1992 166 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1827 1876 1 .00 .11 -.09 -.07 -.11 -.02 .19 .05 .05 .16 .23| .31* .01 -.26 .08 -.11 -.03 -.16 -.31 -.27 .09 1850 1899 0 .20 .27 -.02 -.15 -.17 -.16 .15 -.26 .00 .01 .31* .11 -.08 -.24 .01 -.03 -.04 -.14 -.20 -.04 .16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .565) is: Lower 1852< -.083 1835> -.021 1965> -.010 1902> -.008 1972< -.007 1935> -.007 Higher 1946 .023 1961 .014 1827 to 1876 segment: Lower 1852< -.209 1835> -.080 1836< -.010 1862> -.007 1841> -.007 1844< -.007 Higher 1838 .042 1839 .033 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1852< -.253 1885> -.023 1890< -.013 1881> -.011 1862> -.008 1899> -.007 Higher 1878 .045 1892 .025 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0011A 1829 to 1992 164 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .586) is: Lower 1954< -.014 1874> -.010 1916< -.009 1861< -.009 1909> -.008 1886< -.008 Higher 1903 .013 1961 .013 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0011B 1803 to 1992 190 years Series 15 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1803 1852 0 - - - - - - - - - - .17*-.06 .14 .00 -.14 -.07 -.14 -.19 -.08 .08 .07 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .484) is: Lower 1808> -.072 1807< -.019 1818> -.010 1865< -.008 1974> -.007 1945> -.007 Higher 1946 .015 1963 .015 1803 to 1852 segment: Lower 1808> -.123 1818> -.026 1807< -.025 1824< -.017 1841< -.015 1814< -.014 Higher 1813 .048 1835 .046 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0012A 1865 to 1992 128 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .590) is: Lower 1927< -.030 1988< -.022 1912< -.019 1928> -.018 1969< -.016 1865< -.015 Higher 1946 .028 1963 .017 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0012B 1844 to 1992 149 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .622) is: Lower 1891< -.016 1935> -.013 1849< -.009 1974> -.008 1928> -.008 1868> -.008 Higher 1963 .020 1961 .018 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0014A 1890 to 1992 103 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .745) is: Lower 1981< -.025 1902> -.010 1960< -.007 1894< -.007 1903> -.006 1967> -.006 Higher 1901 .013 1961 .013 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0014B 1860 to 1992 133 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .706) is: Lower 1991> -.013 1982< -.010 1869> -.010 1951< -.009 1872< -.009 1949< -.008 Higher 1946 .026 1963 .017 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0015A 1856 to 1992 137 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .693) is: Lower 1974< -.031 1878> -.017 1954< -.016 1942> -.008 1894< -.006 1895< -.006 Higher 1946 .014 1981 .009 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0015B 1849 to 1992 144 years Series 21 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1849 1898 -4 -.05 -.36 -.34 -.01 -.13 .01 .30* .20 -.20 -.15 .27| .06 -.17 -.01 .20 .01 -.01 .20 .12 -.01 -.07 1850 1899 4 -.01 -.39 -.39 .12 -.05 -.02 .16 .20 -.24 -.22 .24| .12 -.33 .07 .30* .02 -.01 .19 .12 -.05 .05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .597) is: Lower 1899< -.016 1850> -.013 1965> -.011 1892> -.011 1935> -.009 1954< -.008 Higher 1981 .012 1946 .011 1849 to 1898 segment: Lower 1850> -.054 1892> -.039 1854< -.025 1872< -.024 1855< -.022 1858> -.019 Higher 1881 .066 1874 .053 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1850> -.051 1892> -.040 1899< -.034 1872< -.020 1854< -.020 1893> -.018 Higher 1881 .060 1874 .050 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0016A 1896 to 1992 97 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .643) is: Lower 1973< -.018 1963> -.012 1913> -.010 1909> -.010 1981> -.010 1978> -.010 Higher 1946 .040 1901 .018 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0016B 1884 to 1992 109 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .579) is: Lower 1963> -.038 1957< -.013 1903> -.012 1961> -.012 1939> -.011 1898< -.010 Higher 1946 .046 1901 .018 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0017A 1899 to 1992 94 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .662) is: Lower 1961> -.047 1975< -.017 1963> -.016 1911> -.013 1969< -.010 1986> -.009 Higher 1946 .036 1903 .014 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0017B 1903 to 1992 90 years Series 25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .658) is: Lower 1975< -.035 1911> -.017 1978> -.015 1961> -.012 1934< -.010 1950< -.008 Higher 1946 .033 1963 .019 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0018A 1883 to 1992 110 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .553) is: Lower 1990< -.049 1923< -.014 1963> -.013 1982< -.008 1981> -.008 1939> -.007 Higher 1961 .018 1903 .017 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1990 1991 4.1 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1990 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0018B 1891 to 1992 102 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .630) is: Lower 1963> -.035 1957< -.016 1939> -.016 1934< -.012 1974< -.012 1925< -.009 Higher 1964 .013 1946 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0020A 1874 to 1992 119 years Series 28 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1943 1992 0 -.03 -.12 .03 .06 .07 -.14 .17 .02 -.20 -.10 .26* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .501) is: Lower 1969< -.089 1946> -.033 1963> -.018 1888< -.013 1979< -.013 1889< -.007 Higher 1901 .020 1909 .012 1943 to 1992 segment: Lower 1969< -.185 1946> -.051 1963> -.025 1979< -.023 1977> -.012 1978> -.012 Higher 1964 .033 1965 .028 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1969 -5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0020B 1876 to 1992 117 years Series 29 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .600) is: Lower 1970< -.031 1981> -.025 1878< -.015 1971> -.011 1903> -.010 1938> -.007 Higher 1901 .013 1965 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0021A 1879 to 1992 114 years Series 30 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .645) is: Lower 1989< -.042 1946> -.024 1959< -.011 1937< -.011 1898< -.009 1929> -.008 Higher 1961 .016 1909 .011 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0021B 1893 to 1992 100 years Series 31 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .673) is: Lower 1961> -.021 1905> -.015 1898< -.013 1967< -.013 1946> -.012 1904> -.011 Higher 1963 .022 1958 .010 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0022A 1876 to 1992 117 years Series 32 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .599) is: Lower 1931> -.016 1988< -.015 1937< -.014 1992> -.013 1945< -.012 1966< -.009 Higher 1903 .012 1965 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0022B 1866 to 1992 127 years Series 33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .546) is: Lower 1958> -.012 1899< -.011 1990> -.010 1894< -.009 1913< -.009 1978> -.009 Higher 1963 .013 1903 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0023A 1885 to 1992 108 years Series 34 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .634) is: Lower 1974> -.024 1988< -.015 1969< -.013 1931< -.009 1890< -.009 1891< -.008 Higher 1946 .031 1961 .019 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0023B 1874 to 1992 119 years Series 35 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .453) is: Lower 1875< -.081 1992> -.022 1974> -.018 1895< -.012 1936> -.012 1981> -.011 Higher 1963 .030 1961 .024 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1874 1875 -4.2 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1992 +4.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0024A 1887 to 1992 106 years Series 36 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .556) is: Lower 1945< -.030 1911> -.023 1939> -.017 1990> -.015 1910> -.012 1974> -.011 Higher 1946 .033 1981 .016 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1911 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0024B 1891 to 1992 102 years Series 37 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .668) is: Lower 1988< -.020 1971< -.018 1917> -.015 1925< -.013 1947< -.010 1981> -.009 Higher 1946 .021 1961 .019 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0025A 1883 to 1992 110 years Series 38 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .649) is: Lower 1945> -.016 1925< -.014 1970< -.013 1955< -.013 1883< -.013 1987> -.011 Higher 1961 .020 1901 .010 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1945 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== MFC0025B 1885 to 1992 108 years Series 39 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .563) is: Lower 1958< -.020 1933< -.012 1945> -.012 1963> -.012 1973< -.011 1923< -.010 Higher 1946 .014 1901 .010 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0026B 1905 to 1992 88 years Series 40 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .486) is: Lower 1917> -.021 1985< -.020 1963> -.018 1992> -.017 1911> -.016 1946> -.014 Higher 1930 .022 1965 .018 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0028A 1891 to 1992 102 years Series 41 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .542) is: Lower 1988< -.046 1973< -.022 1942< -.017 1926< -.014 1931> -.010 1992> -.010 Higher 1928 .015 1961 .014 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0028B 1883 to 1992 110 years Series 42 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .682) is: Lower 1981> -.019 1984> -.017 1973< -.016 1911> -.012 1931> -.011 1992> -.009 Higher 1946 .032 1961 .017 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0029A 1902 to 1992 91 years Series 43 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .570) is: Lower 1981> -.019 1918< -.015 1902> -.012 1909> -.009 1968> -.008 1965> -.008 Higher 1961 .022 1931 .012 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0030A 1828 to 1992 165 years Series 44 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1828 1877 0 -.09 -.18 -.23 -.24 .03 .19 .30 .25 .26 .10 .32* .14 -.05 -.17 -.20 -.13 -.09 .10 -.05 .03 .03 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .625) is: Lower 1828< -.015 1982< -.013 1866< -.012 1835> -.010 1862< -.009 1984> -.009 Higher 1963 .013 1981 .010 1828 to 1877 segment: Lower 1828< -.062 1866< -.046 1862< -.031 1835> -.031 1858> -.030 1841< -.020 Higher 1839 .047 1869 .045 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0030B 1846 to 1992 147 years Series 45 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .623) is: Lower 1961> -.013 1941< -.012 1884> -.011 1982< -.009 1936> -.008 1978> -.008 Higher 1963 .020 1985 .010 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0031A 1880 to 1992 113 years Series 46 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .663) is: Lower 1937< -.034 1964< -.014 1915< -.013 1958> -.013 1961> -.009 1934< -.008 Higher 1946 .031 1901 .011 =================================================================================================================================== MFC0031B 1886 to 1992 107 years Series 47 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .662) is: Lower 1892< -.051 1936> -.007 1985< -.007 1962< -.007 1989< -.007 1947< -.007 Higher 1901 .015 1928 .010 =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 09:19 Tue 27 Jan 2004 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 MFC0001B 1874 1992 119 5 2 .392 .84 2.03 .445 .814 .284 2.87 .531 .014 1 2 MFC0003B 1828 1992 165 6 0 .619 .70 2.33 .518 .891 .264 2.76 .483 -.069 2 3 MFC0003C 1817 1992 176 7 1 .572 .63 2.13 .452 .890 .255 2.66 .372 -.029 1 4 MFC0004A 1889 1992 104 4 0 .661 .90 1.85 .336 .682 .235 2.61 .503 .012 1 5 MFC0004B 1863 1992 130 5 0 .642 .84 1.73 .306 .658 .228 2.83 .527 .060 1 6 MFC0005A 1848 1992 145 6 2 .479 .94 2.18 .449 .789 .277 2.76 .441 -.021 1 7 MFC0005B 1847 1992 146 6 2 .522 .95 2.34 .415 .748 .265 2.70 .503 .037 1 8 MFC0006A 1837 1992 156 6 2 .581 .77 3.44 .537 .764 .303 2.74 .413 .028 1 9 MFC0006C 1854 1992 139 5 0 .628 .82 2.54 .501 .710 .305 2.97 .464 -.012 2 10 MFC0008A 1884 1992 109 4 0 .611 1.08 2.20 .347 .719 .194 2.67 .520 -.001 1 11 MFC0008B 1803 1992 190 7 1 .407 .68 1.84 .445 .893 .242 2.86 .385 -.047 1 12 MFC0010A 1888 1992 105 4 0 .649 1.14 1.85 .331 .716 .176 2.56 .478 -.014 1 13 MFC0010B 1827 1992 166 6 2 .565 .85 1.95 .465 .886 .216 2.56 .368 -.053 1 14 MFC0011A 1829 1992 164 6 0 .586 .89 3.09 .572 .818 .267 2.84 .454 -.044 1 15 MFC0011B 1803 1992 190 7 1 .484 .75 2.16 .400 .778 .259 2.69 .389 -.020 1 16 MFC0012A 1865 1992 128 5 0 .590 .85 1.67 .376 .725 .266 2.78 .496 -.016 2 17 MFC0012B 1844 1992 149 6 0 .622 .93 2.44 .466 .812 .233 2.62 .379 -.025 1 18 MFC0014A 1890 1992 103 4 0 .745 1.27 2.69 .432 .503 .245 2.81 .398 -.018 1 19 MFC0014B 1860 1992 133 5 0 .706 1.10 2.51 .527 .785 .225 2.71 .452 -.040 2 20 MFC0015A 1856 1992 137 5 0 .693 1.13 2.99 .615 .829 .239 2.54 .370 .011 1 21 MFC0015B 1849 1992 144 6 2 .597 1.10 2.53 .575 .818 .259 2.70 .372 -.046 2 22 MFC0016A 1896 1992 97 4 0 .643 1.50 2.77 .465 .606 .225 2.81 .458 .029 2 23 MFC0016B 1884 1992 109 4 0 .579 1.64 3.05 .524 .569 .222 2.68 .417 .031 2 24 MFC0017A 1899 1992 94 4 0 .662 1.59 2.82 .466 .637 .202 2.58 .421 .022 1 25 MFC0017B 1903 1992 90 3 0 .658 1.55 2.78 .499 .744 .180 2.60 .420 -.038 1 26 MFC0018A 1883 1992 110 4 0 .553 1.26 2.72 .625 .780 .242 2.38 .399 .025 1 27 MFC0018B 1891 1992 102 4 0 .630 1.04 2.62 .415 .651 .268 2.83 .461 .074 2 28 MFC0020A 1874 1992 119 5 1 .501 1.28 2.54 .461 .746 .215 2.70 .412 .064 1 29 MFC0020B 1876 1992 117 4 0 .600 1.38 2.75 .446 .656 .205 2.65 .457 -.019 1 30 MFC0021A 1879 1992 114 4 0 .645 1.71 3.23 .610 .701 .216 2.76 .509 .013 1 31 MFC0021B 1893 1992 100 4 0 .673 1.49 3.10 .451 .651 .212 2.67 .482 -.024 1 32 MFC0022A 1876 1992 117 4 0 .599 1.05 2.89 .472 .749 .222 2.78 .496 .064 1 33 MFC0022B 1866 1992 127 5 0 .546 .90 2.69 .626 .832 .237 2.74 .619 -.039 2 34 MFC0023A 1885 1992 108 4 0 .634 1.27 2.84 .381 .520 .213 2.73 .422 -.012 1 35 MFC0023B 1874 1992 119 5 0 .453 1.16 2.55 .448 .722 .213 2.91 .416 -.029 3 36 MFC0024A 1887 1992 106 4 0 .556 1.41 2.90 .625 .768 .211 2.57 .462 .059 1 37 MFC0024B 1891 1992 102 4 0 .668 1.19 2.61 .528 .802 .205 2.77 .474 .042 1 38 MFC0025A 1883 1992 110 4 0 .649 1.33 2.75 .606 .833 .188 2.63 .462 -.037 1 39 MFC0025B 1885 1992 108 4 0 .563 1.10 3.05 .741 .909 .199 2.46 .345 -.024 1 40 MFC0026B 1905 1992 88 3 0 .486 1.65 3.68 .729 .775 .225 2.70 .386 .027 2 41 MFC0028A 1891 1992 102 4 0 .542 1.00 2.24 .488 .790 .222 2.68 .545 .069 3 42 MFC0028B 1883 1992 110 4 0 .682 1.17 2.38 .496 .688 .229 2.63 .494 .063 2 43 MFC0029A 1902 1992 91 3 0 .570 1.15 2.36 .370 .726 .184 2.55 .406 .037 1 44 MFC0030A 1828 1992 165 6 1 .625 .88 3.02 .492 .850 .213 2.64 .478 .032 1 45 MFC0030B 1846 1992 147 6 0 .623 .83 2.57 .516 .922 .184 2.69 .381 .004 1 46 MFC0031A 1880 1992 113 4 0 .663 1.50 3.10 .623 .793 .204 2.56 .395 .066 1 47 MFC0031B 1886 1992 107 4 0 .662 1.55 3.43 .643 .785 .194 2.64 .360 .067 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5870 223 17 .591 1.08 3.68 .493 .765 .232 2.97 .442 .002 - = [ COFECHA KAARECOF ] = -