Cilan, Taiwan - tw001 Additional Site Information William E. Wright and Edward R. Cook Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : TW001.CRN Measurement file name : TW001.RWL Date checked : 23SEP11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 907 Ending year : 2007 Principal investigators: William E. Wright Edward R. Cook Site name : Cilan Site location : Taiwan Species information : CHOB HINOKI CYPRESS Latitude : 2432 Longitude : 12123 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.565 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.272 Avg standard deviation : 0.329 Avg autocorrelation : 0.754 Number dated series : 40 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 48 Pct problem segments : 4.58 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Cilan 14:56 Fri 23 Sep 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 925 950 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 974 999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 CIL02a 1379 2007 .51 .47 2 CIL02b 1323 1947 .48 .52 .50 .39 .37 3 CIL05a 1376 2007 .65 .65 4 CIL06A 1068 2007 .64 .60 .50 .60 .64 .63 .66 .65 .69 .67 .53 .68 .70 .48 .37B 5 CIL06B 1411 2007 .52 6 CIL06C 1364 2007 .75 .55 .38 8 CIL007 1300 2007 .48 .59 .61 .58 .55 9 CIL07a 1301 2007 .35 .56 .61 .62 .53 10 CIL07B 1339 1713 .33A .55 .59 .52 11 CIL10A 907 2007 .61 .59 .51 .41 .34 .49 .45 .19B .25B .44 .50 .58 .60 .71 .72 .59 .56 .59 .47 .48 12 CIL10B 929 2007 .61 .59 .47 .35 .37 .48 .52 .40 .32A .43 .53 .62 .56 .62 .69 .63 .42 .50 .51 .54 13 CIL11B 1241 2007 .45 .48 .56 .60 .56 .56 .63 .68 14 CIL11C 1163 2007 .48 .49 .34 .36 .52 .67 .36 .49 .57 .38 .58 15 CIL12A 1125 2007 .26B .65 .64 .35 .46 .60 .51 .47 .62 .72 .68 .61 16 CIL12B 1200 2007 .53 .58 .56 .44 .57 .65 .61 .64 .63 18 CIL13b 1420 2007 .46 19 CIL15a 1040 1800 .46 .62 .64 .52 .33A .49 .54 .45 .53 .49 .45 .43 .59 .65 .50 .57 20 CIL16a 1414 2007 .38 22 CIL16c 1419 2007 .52 23 CIL17a 1323 1611 .50 .57 .51 .39 .50 24 CIL18A 1397 2007 .62 .59 26 CIL19A 1352 1638 .37 .33 .52 27 CIL19B 1287 2007 .47 .39 .45 .35 .40 .53 28 CIL20A* 1259 1912 .46 .63 .59 .58 .62 .51 .44 29 CIL20B 1170 2007 .42 .42 .40 .55 .65 .61 .58 .65 .62 .60 .47 33 CIL29b 1306 1957 .39 .46 .58 .54 .54 34 CIL30c 1040 1339 .50 .60 .52 .26B .35 .55 .61 .47 .54 .64 .59 .55 35 CIL31a 1366 1989 .61 .58 .37B 36 CIL31b 1292 1768 .34 .36 .48 .64 .56 .34 37 CIL32A 1064 2007 .48 .48 .36 .39 .64 .67 .64 .77 .80 .68 .53 .65 .65 .39 .39B 38 CIL32B 1210 2007 .50 .58 .65 .63 .41 .61 .76 .52 .44 39 CIL33a 1298 2007 .30A .32A .50 .61 .65 .57 40 CIL33b 1237 2002 .44 .51 .61 .50 .52 .46 .34 .39 Av segment correlation .61 .59 .49 .38 .42 .55 .53 .37 .36 .53 .56 .50 .54 .60 .56 .48 .55 .59 .52 .50 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Cilan 14:56 Fri 23 Sep 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 CIL02a 1379 2007 .62 .67 .50 .57 .47 .36 .43 .52 .55 .44 .45B .64 .53 .33 .59 .59 .56 .71 .66 .47 2 CIL02b 1323 1947 .58 .68 .40 .50 .59 .58 .54 .34 .33A .63 .77 .68 .58 .56 .64 .74 .57 .55 .72 .66 3 CIL05a 1376 2007 .63 .64 .58 .54 .62 .60 .61 .66 .66 .79 .85 .81 .76 .78 .83 .76 .68 .82 .84 .64 4 CIL06A 1068 2007 .51 .63 .57 .45 .31A .53 .71 .67 .51 .48 .60 .75 .68 .57 .66 .71 .71 .74 .73 .69 5 CIL06B 1411 2007 .61 .57 .57 .70 .53 .50 .62 .61 .64 .69 .69 .75 .77 .62 .74 .82 .71 .75 .66 .58 6 CIL06C 1364 2007 .59 .72 .69 .74 .64 .58 .72 .70 .69 .76 .78 .73 .60 .48 .53 .60 .62 .69 .76 .65 7 CIL06d 1480 2007 .66 .75 .42 .33 .63 .59 .61 .79 .87 .73 .52 .69 .76 .70 .53 .62 .66 .66 8 CIL007 1300 2007 .54 .54 .45 .46 .55 .57 .66 .72 .53 .54 .74 .73 .41 .37 .50 .40 .56 .69 .64 .60 9 CIL07a 1301 2007 .52 .56 .48 .49 .50 .58 .72 .75 .62 .48 .51 .60 .38 .42 .63 .51 .55 .56 .58 .60 10 CIL07B 1339 1713 .66 .67 .62 .67 .39 .44 .60 .32A .45 .58 .53 11 CIL10A 907 2007 .54 .40 .37 .48 .40 .51 .60 .47 .54 .59 .55 .55 .55 .56 .50 .56 .80 .76 .77 .78 12 CIL10B 929 2007 .61 .50 .50 .47 .32A .44 .60 .56 .52 .53 .61 .56 .44 .48 .41 .47 .71 .71 .75 .72 13 CIL11B 1241 2007 .64 .40 .39 .56 .49 .54 .46 .37 .51 .67 .66 .56 .42 .36 .67 .83 .76 .70 .79 .85 14 CIL11C 1163 2007 .70 .57 .39 .55 .68 .52 .57 .68 .57 .70 .72 .70 .65 .60 .78 .76 .56 .72 .67 .61 15 CIL12A 1125 2007 .73 .71 .43 .36 .42 .38 .47 .48 .64 .76 .77 .68 .71 .69 .69 .73 .80 .80 .78 .71 16 CIL12B 1200 2007 .64 .72 .77 .70 .32A .38 .45 .32A .50 .68 .76 .68 .60 .59 .67 .64 .61 .69 .61 .59 17 CIL13a 1434 1829 .62 .57 .34 .39 .46 .50 .62 .67 .73 .62 .53 .56 .52 .63 .50 .49 18 CIL13b 1420 2007 .49 .56 .49 .49 .52 .48 .53 .54 .66 .67 .54 .49 .53 .57 .43 .36 .55 .65 .63 .55 19 CIL15a 1040 1800 .76 .64 .47 .60 .65 .60 .59 .24B .26B .74 .76 .62 .62 .66 .65 20 CIL16a 1414 2007 .62 .62 .43 .61 .68 .61 .60 .44 .27B .38B .52 .56 .51 .58 .70 .65 .55 .57 .57 .55 21 CIL16b 1452 2007 .51 .42 .42 .58 .61 .59 .39 .40 .47 .48 .55 .53 .44 .40 .28A .52 .73 .67 .40B 22 CIL16c 1419 2007 .56 .64 .40 .38 .46 .53 .60 .44 .28A .36 .46 .66 .49 .52 .65 .64 .66 .67 .66 .59 23 CIL17a 1323 1611 .40 .47 .58 .53 .47 .47 .44 24 CIL18A 1397 2007 .58 .49 .33 .41 .43 .38 .40 .45 .37 .55 .79 .57 .22B .17B .52 .70 .58 .61 .74 .75 25 CIL18b 1539 1998 .42 .44 .52 .49 .48 .60 .64 .46 .32A .30A .32A .46 .58 .44 .36 .43 26 CIL19A 1352 1638 .54 .63 .60 .60 .54 .50 .49 .51 27 CIL19B 1287 2007 .57 .62 .54 .55 .53 .53 .56 .51 .53 .52 .48 .63 .66 .59 .43 .30A .54 .48 .51 .48 28 CIL20A* 1259 1912 .61 .55 .52 .65 .56 .57 .57 .31A .26A .54 .60 .62 .67 .46 .49 .50 .49 .69 .72 29 CIL20B 1170 2007 .48 .59 .39 .43 .50 .36 .41 .36B .20B .41 .67 .67 .44 .34 .51 .60 .45 .49 .43 .38B 30 CIL28A 1462 2007 .78 .71 .65 .62 .61 .62 .45 .33 .54 .73 .80 .65 .47 .64 .71 .64 .68 .65 .53 31 CIL28b 1472 2007 .69 .68 .74 .63 .57 .69 .63 .55 .53 .68 .75 .55 .44 .57 .69 .66 .72 .64 .60 32 CIL29a 1444 2007 .51 .55 .57 .68 .69 .57 .46 .30A .55 .63 .60 .66 .65 .67 .68 .50 .39 .68 .58 .50 33 CIL29b 1306 1957 .74 .61 .38 .60 .54 .66 .68 .55 .67 .66 .68 .69 .58 .50 .66 .65 .58 .58 .69 .76 35 CIL31a 1366 1989 .49 .61 .59 .65 .66 .62 .65 .58 .51 .77 .81 .77 .52 .41 .50 .53 .66 .75 .71 .70 36 CIL31b 1292 1768 .36B .50 .56 .59 .62 .61 .67 .47 .53 .63 .63 .65 .47 37 CIL32A 1064 2007 .60 .70 .57 .32A .34 .43 .53 .43 .48 .71 .61 .41 .44 .64 .61 .46 .73 .83 .84 .76 38 CIL32B 1210 2007 .60 .76 .78 .46 .22B .06B-.07B-.07B .26A .65 .74 .72 .68 .52 .48 .48 .60 .67 .69 .54 39 CIL33a 1298 2007 .71 .72 .50 .54 .64 .76 .78 .62 .47 .44 .50 .47 .40 .52 .67 .55 .60 .67 .60 .57 40 CIL33b 1237 2002 .65 .78 .57 .44 .48 .59 .53 .41 .59 .60 .70 .76 .49 .55 .64 .61 .68 .66 .70 .71 Av segment correlation .59 .61 .52 .55 .51 .51 .56 .49 .49 .60 .65 .64 .54 .52 .59 .59 .61 .67 .67 .61 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Cilan 14:56 Fri 23 Sep 2011 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1925 1950 1975 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 CIL02a 1379 2007 .38 .41 .44 3 CIL05a 1376 2007 .54 .80 .74 4 CIL06A 1068 2007 .71 .77 .75 5 CIL06B 1411 2007 .71 .79 .80 6 CIL06C 1364 2007 .66 .68 .63 7 CIL06d 1480 2007 .69 .65 .59 8 CIL007 1300 2007 .49 .45 .44 9 CIL07a 1301 2007 .52 .59 .55 11 CIL10A 907 2007 .69 .58 .46 12 CIL10B 929 2007 .64 .50 .40 13 CIL11B 1241 2007 .76 .77 .80 14 CIL11C 1163 2007 .64 .69 .71 15 CIL12A 1125 2007 .68 .64 .63 16 CIL12B 1200 2007 .70 .76 .76 18 CIL13b 1420 2007 .47 .54 .56 20 CIL16a 1414 2007 .60 .77 .66 21 CIL16b 1452 2007 .41 .68 .67 22 CIL16c 1419 2007 .60 .71 .70 24 CIL18A 1397 2007 .62 .63 .53 25 CIL18b 1539 1998 .51 .58 27 CIL19B 1287 2007 .25A .15B .12B 29 CIL20B 1170 2007 .61 .68 .67 30 CIL28A 1462 2007 .58 .71 .75 31 CIL28b 1472 2007 .65 .70 .70 32 CIL29a 1444 2007 .60 .70 .70 33 CIL29b 1306 1957 .67 35 CIL31a 1366 1989 .74 .72 37 CIL32A 1064 2007 .72 .55 .45 38 CIL32B 1210 2007 .58 .71 .66 39 CIL33a 1298 2007 .52 .62 .59 40 CIL33b 1237 2002 .64 .67 .66 Av segment correlation .60 .64 .61 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Cilan 14:56 Fri 23 Sep 2011 Page 13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 CIL02a 1379 2007 629 25 1 .514 .67 2.67 .340 .848 .219 2.54 .331 -.013 1 2 CIL02b 1323 1947 625 25 1 .563 .47 1.80 .263 .795 .251 2.80 .390 -.012 1 3 CIL05a 1376 2007 632 25 0 .704 .70 2.87 .376 .758 .248 2.69 .319 -.045 3 4 CIL06A 1068 2007 940 38 2 .611 .60 3.72 .400 .860 .236 2.63 .326 -.004 6 5 CIL06B 1411 2007 597 24 0 .664 .37 .88 .126 .614 .243 2.52 .314 .000 1 6 CIL06C 1364 2007 644 26 0 .660 .44 1.22 .177 .664 .264 2.44 .280 .002 1 7 CIL06d 1480 2007 528 21 0 .632 .49 1.10 .164 .566 .257 2.55 .309 .001 8 8 CIL007 1300 2007 708 28 0 .552 .36 1.46 .186 .781 .223 2.75 .348 -.012 2 9 CIL07a 1301 2007 707 28 0 .543 .36 1.47 .188 .792 .220 2.76 .315 .009 1 10 CIL07B 1339 1713 375 15 2 .482 .67 2.64 .339 .696 .297 2.54 .265 -.028 1 11 CIL10A 907 2007 1101 43 2 .527 .52 2.55 .417 .842 .322 2.45 .222 -.001 1 12 CIL10B 929 2007 1079 43 2 .531 .50 2.85 .384 .829 .318 2.70 .298 -.005 1 13 CIL11B 1241 2007 767 31 0 .614 .82 2.94 .429 .661 .296 2.76 .293 -.024 1 14 CIL11C 1163 2007 845 34 0 .596 .64 2.21 .349 .746 .288 2.68 .332 -.045 1 15 CIL12A 1125 2007 883 35 1 .607 .67 2.96 .314 .651 .304 2.94 .365 -.016 1 16 CIL12B 1200 2007 808 32 2 .601 .70 2.21 .291 .637 .266 2.59 .334 -.038 1 17 CIL13a 1434 1829 396 16 0 .535 .77 2.63 .345 .735 .254 2.65 .310 -.026 1 18 CIL13b 1420 2007 588 24 0 .526 .83 2.78 .440 .788 .263 2.74 .279 -.041 1 19 CIL15a 1040 1800 761 31 3 .544 .67 2.58 .478 .884 .232 2.58 .299 -.009 1 20 CIL16a 1414 2007 594 24 2 .547 .81 3.39 .411 .788 .238 2.62 .300 -.037 3 21 CIL16b 1452 2007 556 22 2 .493 .62 2.07 .298 .813 .238 2.62 .385 .013 1 22 CIL16c 1419 2007 589 24 1 .548 .61 1.69 .260 .739 .241 2.57 .289 -.036 3 23 CIL17a 1323 1611 289 12 0 .467 .30 .65 .118 .770 .247 2.52 .380 -.019 1 24 CIL18A 1397 2007 611 25 2 .532 .71 2.39 .398 .671 .338 2.70 .383 -.026 2 25 CIL18b 1539 1998 460 18 3 .459 .66 2.77 .431 .680 .380 2.65 .355 -.011 1 26 CIL19A 1352 1638 287 11 0 .502 .72 2.68 .421 .818 .300 2.55 .374 -.020 2 27 CIL19B 1287 2007 721 29 4 .472 .47 1.71 .238 .710 .299 2.69 .365 -.016 2 28 CIL20A* 1259 1912 654 26 2 .545 .51 2.10 .283 .701 .313 2.64 .291 -.011 1 29 CIL20B 1170 2007 838 34 3 .491 .65 2.49 .325 .762 .278 2.75 .285 -.021 2 30 CIL28A 1462 2007 546 22 0 .633 .55 2.29 .278 .746 .242 2.79 .404 -.026 1 31 CIL28b 1472 2007 536 22 0 .624 .59 1.40 .217 .662 .237 2.53 .354 -.025 1 32 CIL29a 1444 2007 564 23 1 .601 .53 2.37 .361 .810 .307 2.57 .331 -.017 1 33 CIL29b 1306 1957 652 26 0 .599 .67 2.54 .454 .843 .282 2.58 .324 -.014 3 34 CIL30c 1040 1339 300 12 1 .495 .68 2.63 .436 .663 .332 2.80 .360 -.046 1 35 CIL31a 1366 1989 624 25 1 .630 .59 2.30 .306 .761 .279 2.71 .389 -.010 1 36 CIL31b 1292 1768 477 19 1 .544 .79 2.66 .415 .779 .290 2.59 .360 -.040 1 37 CIL32A 1064 2007 944 38 2 .584 .57 4.86 .569 .917 .254 2.66 .310 -.013 1 38 CIL32B 1210 2007 798 32 5 .526 .51 3.06 .314 .808 .300 2.61 .347 -.025 3 39 CIL33a 1298 2007 710 29 2 .568 .48 1.14 .161 .623 .227 2.56 .314 -.044 1 40 CIL33b 1237 2002 766 31 0 .583 .52 2.28 .240 .698 .247 2.71 .340 -.026 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 26129 1048 48 .565 .59 4.86 .329 .754 .272 2.94 .325 -.018