[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run YOVIM Program COF 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Yovimpa Point File of DATED series: ut515.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: YPP 1 Yovimpa Point PSME Text in file: YPP 2 Utah Douglas-fir 2750M 3728-11215 __ 1436 1998 Text in file: YPP 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1436 to 1998 563 years Continuous time span is 1436 to 1998 563 years Portion with two or more series is 1449 to 1998 550 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 34 *C* *O* Master series 1436 1998 563 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 12665 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 12652 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .781 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .303 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 1 *A* *** Mean length of series 372.5 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) YPP02A 1 absent rings: 1735 YPP02B 4 absent rings: 1735 1777 1931 1936 YPP03A 1 absent rings: 1857 YPP04B 2 absent rings: 1864 1882 YPP05A 2 absent rings: 1847 1861 YPP13A 1 absent rings: 1977 YPP13C 2 absent rings: 1956 1977 13 absent rings .103% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . <============================================>. YPP01A 1 1543 1997 455 . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================================>. YPP01B 2 1539 1994 456 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================================>. YPP02A 3 1580 1998 419 . . . . . . . . . . <===================================================>. YPP02B 4 1479 1998 520 . . . . . . . . . . <==================================================>. YPP03A 5 1486 1998 513 . . . . . . . . . <=======================================================>. YPP03B 6 1436 1998 563 . . . . . . . . . . <================================================>. YPP04B 7 1507 1998 492 . . . . . . . . . . <======================================> . . . YPP05A 8 1489 1877 389 . . . . . . . . . . <================================================> . YPP05B 9 1497 1980 484 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. YPP06A 10 1620 1990 371 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================================> . YPP06B 11 1627 1976 350 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. YPP07A 12 1853 1997 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================>. YPP07B 13 1778 1998 221 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. YPP08A 14 1661 1998 338 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================================>. YPP08B 15 1586 1998 413 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================>. YPP09A 16 1793 1998 206 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. YPP09B 17 1826 1998 173 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. YPP10A 18 1620 1998 379 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. YPP10B 19 1652 1998 347 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. YPP11A 20 1810 1998 189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. YPP11B 21 1815 1998 184 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. YPP12A 22 1652 1998 347 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============================>. YPP12B 23 1671 1998 328 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================>. YPP13A 24 1638 1998 361 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================>. YPP13C 25 1637 1998 362 . . . . . . . . . <=====================================================>. YPP15A 26 1458 1997 540 . . . . . . . . . <======================================================>. YPP15B 27 1449 1998 550 . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================================>. YPP16A 28 1524 1992 469 . . . . . . . . . . <================================================>. YPP16C 29 1503 1998 496 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. YPP20A 30 1699 1998 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================================>. YPP20B 31 1575 1998 424 . . . . . . . . . . . <============> . . . . . . . YPP20C 32 1558 1686 129 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. YPP21A 33 1615 1997 383 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================>. YPP21B 34 1630 1998 369 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1450 -.450 2 1500 -1.082 7 1550 .953 12 1600 -3.416 16 1650 .057 23 1451 1.166 2 1501 -.945 7 1551 .436 12 1601 -.476 16 1651 1.003 23 1452 -1.185 2 1502 -.647 7 1552 -.087 12 1602 .598 16 1652 -.116 25 1453 -.359 2 1503 .148 8 1553 1.065 12 1603 -.526 16 1653 .569 25 1454 -1.533 2 1504 .980 8 1554 .245 12 1604 .697 16 1654 -3.758 25 1455 -1.178 2 1505 .011 8 1555 .522 12 1605 .816 16 1655 -.989 25 1456 -.371 2 1506 -1.759 8 1556 1.843 12 1606 -1.402 16 1656 -.937 25 1457 -.559 2 1507 1.112 9 1557 .795 12 1607 -.342 16 1657 -.227 25 1458 .038 3 1508 .466 9 1558 -.664 13 1608 .705 16 1658 -.119 25 1459 -.756 3 1509 1.109 9 1559 -.057 13 1609 .406 16 1659 .106 25 1460 -.808 3 1510 -.151 9 1560 .175 13 1610 -.192 16 1660 .136 25 1461 .233 3 1511 .079 9 1561 .549 13 1611 -.580 16 1661 .869 26 1462 1.593 3 1512 -.318 9 1562 .335 13 1612 .853 16 1662 .718 26 1463 1.118 3 1513 -.693 9 1563 -2.513 13 1613 -1.662 16 1663 .217 26 1464 -2.152 3 1514 .612 9 1564 -.124 13 1614 -.474 16 1664 1.189 26 1465 .658 3 1515 -.642 9 1565 -.106 13 1615 .173 17 1665 .366 26 1466 1.345 3 1516 1.040 9 1566 .061 13 1616 -.104 17 1666 1.088 26 1467 .907 3 1517 .707 9 1567 -1.142 13 1617 .281 17 1667 .572 26 1468 .450 3 1518 1.422 9 1568 1.453 13 1618 1.177 17 1668 -1.013 26 1469 .923 3 1519 .342 9 1569 1.086 13 1619 1.079 17 1669 -1.187 26 1470 .548 3 1520 .266 9 1570 .171 13 1620 .954 19 1670 -1.512 26 1471 -1.245 3 1521 .275 9 1571 .206 13 1621 1.686 19 1671 -.247 27 1472 -.989 3 1522 -4.408 9 1572 -1.779 13 1622 -.142 19 1672 .093 27 1473 -.366 3 1523 -.745 9 1573 -.790 13 1623 -.570 19 1673 .660 27 1474 .009 3 1524 .415 10 1574 -.464 13 1624 -.970 19 1674 1.077 27 1475 -1.410 3 1525 .105 10 1575 .184 14 1625 -.199 19 1675 -1.251 27 1476 -.097 3 1526 .437 10 1576 .543 14 1626 -2.830 19 1676 -.758 27 1477 .780 3 1527 1.158 10 1577 .988 14 1627 .285 20 1677 .358 27 1478 .298 3 1528 -1.144 10 1578 .309 14 1628 .286 20 1678 .284 27 1479 -2.960 4 1529 -.253 10 1579 .127 14 1629 .967 20 1679 .216 27 1480 -.153 4 1530 .160 10 1580 -1.688 15 1630 .214 21 1680 .813 27 1481 .340 4 1531 .600 10 1581 .338 15 1631 -.305 21 1681 .568 27 1482 .052 4 1532 -2.144 10 1582 .823 15 1632 -2.329 21 1682 .359 27 1483 -1.466 4 1533 .498 10 1583 .485 15 1633 .935 21 1683 .791 27 1484 .383 4 1534 .347 10 1584 -2.886 15 1634 .593 21 1684 -.343 27 1485 .830 4 1535 1.080 10 1585 -1.947 15 1635 .618 21 1685 -1.108 27 1436 1.465 1 1486 1.377 5 1536 1.495 10 1586 -.019 16 1636 .663 21 1686 -4.384 27 1437 .468 1 1487 -.195 5 1537 .870 10 1587 .728 16 1637 -1.646 22 1687 .148 26 1438 -1.157 1 1488 .352 5 1538 -1.767 10 1588 1.200 16 1638 -1.815 23 1688 .709 26 1439 .634 1 1489 .218 6 1539 -.112 11 1589 1.069 16 1639 .135 23 1689 1.043 26 1440 -.939 1 1490 .463 6 1540 .071 11 1590 -.550 16 1640 1.299 23 1690 .527 26 1441 1.112 1 1491 .448 6 1541 .600 11 1591 -.408 16 1641 .178 23 1691 .740 26 1442 -.425 1 1492 -.147 6 1542 -2.415 11 1592 -.074 16 1642 .249 23 1692 .776 26 1443 -.094 1 1493 .301 6 1543 .612 12 1593 1.203 16 1643 .085 23 1693 .231 26 1444 -.787 1 1494 .307 6 1544 -1.106 12 1594 1.234 16 1644 .613 23 1694 -.348 26 1445 .523 1 1495 -1.035 6 1545 -.029 12 1595 .443 16 1645 .750 23 1695 -.054 26 1446 .634 1 1496 -1.178 6 1546 -.025 12 1596 .450 16 1646 .530 23 1696 .345 26 1447 1.466 1 1497 -.465 7 1547 -2.186 12 1597 .516 16 1647 .345 23 1697 .227 26 1448 1.981 1 1498 .816 7 1548 -.310 12 1598 -.305 16 1648 .307 23 1698 -.374 26 1449 .169 2 1499 .445 7 1549 1.238 12 1599 .655 16 1649 .696 23 1699 .450 27 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .014 27 1750 .135 27 1800 -1.415 29 1850 .745 32 1900 .091 32 1950 -.491 32 1701 1.311 27 1751 .503 27 1801 -.503 29 1851 .657 32 1901 -.013 32 1951 -.584 32 1702 1.007 27 1752 -.269 27 1802 .303 29 1852 1.120 32 1902 -1.721 32 1952 .545 32 1703 -1.637 27 1753 .201 27 1803 .678 29 1853 .478 33 1903 .103 32 1953 -2.983 32 1704 -.374 27 1754 -1.110 27 1804 .397 29 1854 -.174 33 1904 -.656 32 1954 .789 32 1705 1.022 27 1755 -2.343 27 1805 -1.437 29 1855 .699 33 1905 -.078 32 1955 -.192 32 1706 -.150 27 1756 -.728 27 1806 .058 29 1856 -.408 33 1906 .235 32 1956 -1.100 32 1 1707 -1.262 27 1757 -.211 27 1807 .514 29 1857 -1.356 33 1 1907 1.053 32 1957 -.214 32 1708 -.925 27 1758 .273 27 1808 -1.354 29 1858 .161 33 1908 .473 32 1958 .735 32 1709 -.986 27 1759 .429 27 1809 -.101 29 1859 .058 33 1909 .311 32 1959 -.284 32 1710 .480 27 1760 .096 27 1810 -.062 30 1860 -.631 33 1910 .072 32 1960 .173 32 1711 .078 27 1761 -.814 27 1811 .492 30 1861 -2.194 33 1 1911 .991 32 1961 -.491 32 1712 .541 27 1762 -.432 27 1812 .036 30 1862 .991 33 1912 .234 32 1962 .046 32 1713 -.190 27 1763 -2.613 27 1813 -2.604 30 1863 -.398 33 1913 .687 32 1963 -.361 32 1714 .149 27 1764 .336 27 1814 .596 30 1864 -2.046 33 1 1914 1.269 32 1964 .432 32 1715 -.968 27 1765 .382 27 1815 .697 31 1865 -.081 33 1915 .336 32 1965 .294 32 1716 -1.022 27 1766 .944 27 1816 1.164 31 1866 1.073 33 1916 -.634 32 1966 -.036 32 1717 -.298 27 1767 1.176 27 1817 .819 31 1867 .990 33 1917 1.068 32 1967 .878 32 1718 .872 27 1768 .663 27 1818 -.348 31 1868 1.151 33 1918 -.588 32 1968 .979 32 1719 1.138 27 1769 .713 27 1819 1.318 31 1869 1.368 33 1919 .055 32 1969 1.236 32 1720 1.502 27 1770 1.244 27 1820 -1.569 31 1870 1.157 33 1920 -.480 32 1970 -1.053 32 1721 .993 27 1771 1.219 27 1821 1.071 31 1871 -.043 33 1921 -.236 32 1971 -.328 32 1722 -2.001 27 1772 .735 27 1822 -.545 31 1872 -.243 33 1922 .764 32 1972 .521 32 1723 .076 27 1773 -2.689 27 1823 -.755 31 1873 -.772 33 1923 -.735 32 1973 1.077 32 1724 .464 27 1774 .356 27 1824 -.382 31 1874 .004 33 1924 -.661 32 1974 -.786 32 1725 .578 27 1775 .775 27 1825 .279 31 1875 .745 33 1925 -.834 32 1975 .450 32 1726 .804 27 1776 .284 27 1826 -.113 32 1876 -.303 33 1926 .633 32 1976 -.587 32 1727 .653 27 1777 -1.094 27 1 1827 .183 32 1877 .534 33 1927 -.348 32 1977 -1.799 31 2 1728 1.069 27 1778 .105 28 1828 .595 32 1878 .502 32 1928 .527 32 1978 -.296 31 1729 -1.820 27 1779 .209 28 1829 -2.363 32 1879 -1.517 32 1929 -.716 32 1979 .436 31 1730 -.311 27 1780 -.760 28 1830 .219 32 1880 -.839 32 1930 .387 32 1980 .433 31 1731 .748 27 1781 -.584 28 1831 -.391 32 1881 -.068 32 1931 -.593 32 1 1981 -1.455 30 1732 .301 27 1782 -2.454 28 1832 .261 32 1882 -1.980 32 1 1932 .794 32 1982 .358 30 1733 -.226 27 1783 .687 28 1833 .633 32 1883 -1.420 32 1933 .271 32 1983 1.148 30 1734 .354 27 1784 .522 28 1834 .509 32 1884 .762 32 1934 -.376 32 1984 -.107 30 1735 -3.685 27 2 1785 -.237 28 1835 .745 32 1885 .715 32 1935 .093 32 1985 .530 30 1736 -1.770 27 1786 -.622 28 1836 -.323 32 1886 .283 32 1936 -1.874 32 1 1986 .263 30 1737 -.126 27 1787 .647 28 1837 .704 32 1887 -.070 32 1937 1.618 32 1987 .910 30 1738 .676 27 1788 -.349 28 1838 .674 32 1888 -.014 32 1938 .900 32 1988 .949 30 1739 -.270 27 1789 -2.912 28 1839 1.078 32 1889 .663 32 1939 .158 32 1989 -.398 30 1740 -.254 27 1790 .326 28 1840 .769 32 1890 .945 32 1940 .022 32 1990 -.816 30 1741 .606 27 1791 .840 28 1841 -.928 32 1891 1.413 32 1941 1.006 32 1991 -.011 29 1742 -1.204 27 1792 1.509 28 1842 -1.064 32 1892 1.135 32 1942 .693 32 1992 .457 29 1743 .717 27 1793 .613 29 1843 .531 32 1893 -.357 32 1943 -1.062 32 1993 1.019 28 1744 .549 27 1794 -.507 29 1844 .532 32 1894 -.317 32 1944 .487 32 1994 -.214 28 1745 .346 27 1795 1.163 29 1845 -2.030 32 1895 .223 32 1945 -.330 32 1995 .172 27 1746 1.505 27 1796 .554 29 1846 .333 32 1896 -1.732 32 1946 -1.414 32 1996 -2.268 27 1747 1.905 27 1797 1.100 29 1847 -2.942 32 1 1897 .601 32 1947 .617 32 1997 -.190 27 1748 -.486 27 1798 .476 29 1848 .774 32 1898 1.004 32 1948 .798 32 1998 1.044 23 1749 .915 27 1799 .322 29 1849 1.196 32 1899 -2.653 32 1949 .953 32 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1450--b 1500-d 1550---------D 1451----------E 1501-d 1551------B 1452-e 1502--c 1552----@ 1453---a 1503-----A 1553---------D 1454-f 1504---------D 1554-----A 1455-e 1505----@ 1555-------B 1456---a 1506g 1556----------G 1457--b 1507----------D 1557--------C 1458----@ 1508-------B 1558--c 1459--c 1509----------D 1559----@ 1460-c 1510---a 1560-----A 1461-----A 1511----@ 1561-------B 1462----------F 1512---a 1562------A 1463----------D 1513--c 1563j 1464i 1514-------B 1564---@ 1465--------C 1515--c 1565----@ 1466----------E 1516---------D 1566----@ 1467---------D 1517--------C 1567-e 1468------B 1518----------F 1568----------F 1469---------D 1519------A 1569---------D 1470-------B 1520-----A 1570-----A 1471-e 1521-----A 1571-----A 1472-d 1522r 1572g 1473---a 1523--c 1573--c 1474----@ 1524------B 1574--b 1475-f 1525----@ 1575-----A 1476----@ 1526------B 1576-------B 1477--------C 1527----------E 1577---------D 1478------A 1528-e 1578------A 1479l 1529---a 1579-----A 1480---a 1530-----A 1580g 1481------A 1531-------B 1581------A 1482----@ 1532i 1582--------C 1483-f 1533-------B 1583-------B 1484------B 1534------A 1584l 1485--------C 1535---------D 1585h 1436----------F 1486----------F 1536----------F 1586----@ 1437-------B 1487---a 1537---------C 1587--------C 1438-e 1488------A 1538g 1588----------E 1439--------C 1489-----A 1539----@ 1589---------D 1440-d 1490-------B 1540----@ 1590--b 1441----------D 1491------B 1541-------B 1591--b 1442--b 1492---a 1542j 1592----@ 1443----@ 1493------A 1543-------B 1593----------E 1444--c 1494------A 1544-d 1594----------E 1445-------B 1495-d 1545----@ 1595------B 1446--------C 1496-e 1546----@ 1596------B 1447----------F 1497--b 1547i 1597-------B 1448----------H 1498--------C 1548---a 1598---a 1449-----A 1499------B 1549----------E 1599--------C PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600n 1650----@ 1700----@ 1750-----A 1800-f 1850--------C 1900----@ 1950--b 1601--b 1651---------D 1701----------E 1751-------B 1801--b 1851--------C 1901----@ 1951--b 1602-------B 1652----@ 1702---------D 1752---a 1802------A 1852----------D 1902g 1952-------B 1603--b 1653-------B 1703g 1753-----A 1803--------C 1853-------B 1903----@ 1953l 1604--------C 1654o 1704---a 1754-d 1804------B 1854---a 1904--c 1954--------C 1605--------C 1655-d 1705---------D 1755i 1805-f 1855--------C 1905----@ 1955---a 1606-f 1656-d 1706---a 1756--c 1806----@ 1856--b 1906-----A 1956-d 1607---a 1657---a 1707-e 1757---a 1807-------B 1857-e 1907---------D 1957---a 1608--------C 1658---@ 1708-d 1758-----A 1808-e 1858-----A 1908-------B 1958--------C 1609------B 1659----@ 1709-d 1759------B 1809----@ 1859----@ 1909------A 1959---a 1610---a 1660-----A 1710-------B 1760----@ 1810----@ 1860--c 1910----@ 1960-----A 1611--b 1661---------C 1711----@ 1761-c 1811-------B 1861i 1911---------D 1961--b 1612---------C 1662--------C 1712-------B 1762--b 1812----@ 1862---------D 1912-----A 1962----@ 1613g 1663-----A 1713---a 1763j 1813j 1863--b 1913--------C 1963---a 1614--b 1664----------E 1714-----A 1764------A 1814-------B 1864h 1914----------E 1964------B 1615-----A 1665------A 1715-d 1765------B 1815--------C 1865----@ 1915------A 1965------A 1616----@ 1666---------D 1716-d 1766---------D 1816----------E 1866---------D 1916--c 1966----@ 1617-----A 1667-------B 1717---a 1767----------E 1817--------C 1867---------D 1917---------D 1967---------D 1618----------E 1668-d 1718---------C 1768--------C 1818---a 1868----------E 1918--b 1968---------D 1619---------D 1669-e 1719----------E 1769--------C 1819----------E 1869----------E 1919----@ 1969----------E 1620---------D 1670-f 1720----------F 1770----------E 1820f 1870----------E 1920--b 1970-d 1621----------G 1671---a 1721---------D 1771----------E 1821---------D 1871----@ 1921---a 1971---a 1622---a 1672----@ 1722h 1772--------C 1822--b 1872---a 1922--------C 1972-------B 1623--b 1673--------C 1723----@ 1773k 1823--c 1873--c 1923--c 1973---------D 1624-d 1674---------D 1724-------B 1774------A 1824---b 1874----@ 1924--c 1974--c 1625---a 1675-e 1725-------B 1775--------C 1825-----A 1875--------C 1925-c 1975------B 1626k 1676--c 1726--------C 1776-----A 1826----@ 1876---a 1926--------C 1976--b 1627-----A 1677------A 1727--------C 1777-d 1827-----A 1877-------B 1927---a 1977g 1628-----A 1678-----A 1728---------D 1778----@ 1828-------B 1878-------B 1928-------B 1978---a 1629---------D 1679-----A 1729g 1779-----A 1829i 1879-f 1929--c 1979------B 1630-----A 1680--------C 1730---a 1780--c 1830-----A 1880-c 1930------B 1980------B 1631---a 1681-------B 1731--------C 1781--b 1831--b 1881----@ 1931--b 1981-f 1632i 1682------A 1732------A 1782j 1832-----A 1882h 1932--------C 1982------A 1633---------D 1683--------C 1733---a 1783--------C 1833--------C 1883-f 1933-----A 1983----------E 1634-------B 1684---a 1734------A 1784-------B 1834-------B 1884--------C 1934---b 1984----@ 1635-------B 1685-d 1735o 1785---a 1835--------C 1885--------C 1935----@ 1985-------B 1636--------C 1686r 1736g 1786--b 1836---a 1886-----A 1936g 1986-----A 1637g 1687-----A 1737---a 1787--------C 1837--------C 1887----@ 1937----------F 1987---------D 1638g 1688--------C 1738--------C 1788---a 1838--------C 1888----@ 1938---------D 1988---------D 1639-----A 1689---------D 1739---a 1789l 1839---------D 1889--------C 1939-----A 1989--b 1640----------E 1690-------B 1740---a 1790------A 1840--------C 1890---------D 1940----@ 1990-c 1641-----A 1691--------C 1741-------B 1791--------C 1841-d 1891----------F 1941---------D 1991----@ 1642-----A 1692--------C 1742-e 1792----------F 1842-d 1892----------E 1942--------C 1992-------B 1643----@ 1693-----A 1743--------C 1793-------B 1843-------B 1893---a 1943-d 1993---------D 1644-------B 1694---a 1744-------B 1794--b 1844-------B 1894---a 1944-------B 1994---a 1645--------C 1695----@ 1745------A 1795----------E 1845h 1895-----A 1945---a 1995-----A 1646-------B 1696------A 1746----------F 1796-------B 1846------A 1896g 1946-f 1996i 1647------A 1697-----A 1747----------H 1797---------D 1847l 1897-------B 1947-------B 1997---a 1648------A 1698---a 1748--b 1798-------B 1848--------C 1898---------D 1948--------C 1998---------D 1649--------C 1699------B 1749---------D 1799------A 1849----------E 1899k 1949---------D PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 YPP01A 1543 1997 .79 .82 .93 .91 .85 .87 .87 .91 .92 .90 .91 .93 .92 .85 .82 .78 2 YPP01B 1539 1994 .84 .84 .89 .87 .88 .89 .85 .90 .91 .91 .92 .91 .90 .87 .85 .80 3 YPP02A 1580 1998 .76 .77 .88 .86 .84 .82 .86 .87 .90 .92 .91 .92 .86 .80 4 YPP02B 1479 1998 .47 .86 .82 .75 .78 .86 .88 .86 .87 .86 .87 .74 .72 .85 .88 .88 .85 .56 5 YPP03A 1486 1998 .84 .87 .89 .87 .90 .81 .62 .71 .83 .81 .80 .74 .77 .79 .73 .68 .66 .71 6 YPP03B 1436 1998 .32A .35 .44 .81 .82 .81 .88 .86 .77 .80 .88 .91 .94 .85 .81 .88 .90 .86 .82 .83 7 YPP04B 1507 1998 .79 .78 .80 .89 .87 .68 .62 .70 .78 .83 .67 .70 .70 .63 .64 .62 .67 8 YPP05A 1489 1877 .76 .86 .89 .83 .84 .84 .78 .67 .67 .85 .87 .86 .88 .90 .88 .86 9 YPP05B 1497 1980 .74 .78 .90 .88 .86 .78 .68 .68 .76 .89 .90 .86 .84 .86 .89 .83 .69 .68 10 YPP06A 1620 1990 .80 .78 .71 .78 .92 .93 .90 .89 .91 .90 .84 .84 .86 11 YPP06B 1627 1976 .83 .82 .80 .90 .93 .90 .91 .93 .93 .86 .85 .87 12 YPP07A 1853 1997 .88 .84 .78 13 YPP07B 1778 1998 .78 .77 .83 .90 .84 .67 14 YPP08A 1661 1998 .83 .86 .80 .81 .78 .77 .89 .94 .88 .75 .65 15 YPP08B 1586 1998 .63 .71 .87 .88 .86 .89 .83 .75 .65 .75 .87 .81 .73 .57 16 YPP09A 1793 1998 .69 .77 .81 .78 .66 .62 17 YPP09B 1826 1998 .81 .80 .69 .51 18 YPP10A 1620 1998 .86 .87 .85 .81 .79 .79 .79 .82 .80 .81 .74 .63 .56 19 YPP10B 1652 1998 .83 .87 .87 .87 .85 .81 .79 .83 .80 .62 .56 20 YPP11A 1810 1998 .82 .78 .86 .76 .63 21 YPP11B 1815 1998 .83 .83 .82 .79 .63 22 YPP12A 1652 1998 .52 .69 .88 .93 .91 .82 .81 .85 .79 .74 .65 23 YPP12B 1671 1998 .71 .75 .81 .92 .88 .81 .79 .81 .84 .80 .72 24 YPP13A 1638 1998 .71 .71 .81 .80 .77 .81 .89 .75 .69 .78 .65 .61 25 YPP13C 1637 1998 .70 .67 .72 .81 .82 .83 .85 .70 .65 .80 .73 .69 26 YPP15A 1458 1997 .72 .69 .79 .81 .85 .83 .84 .90 .84 .73 .79 .83 .77 .75 .83 .88 .89 .78 .71 27 YPP15B 1449 1998 .75 .79 .78 .79 .70 .71 .87 .87 .89 .86 .86 .91 .96 .91 .71 .61 .69 .79 .80 .65 28 YPP16A 1524 1992 .83 .83 .80 .82 .76 .74 .79 .73 .82 .88 .89 .88 .75 .74 .84 .83 .78 29 YPP16C 1503 1998 .82 .74 .74 .91 .88 .79 .70 .71 .84 .84 .87 .82 .72 .75 .82 .61 .48 30 YPP20A 1699 1998 .85 .85 .86 .86 .86 .84 .87 .85 .74 .71 31 YPP20B 1575 1998 .71 .85 .89 .83 .82 .88 .88 .86 .85 .77 .82 .88 .77 .76 32 YPP20C 1558 1686 .78 .82 .87 .85 .74 33 YPP21A 1615 1997 .66 .74 .68 .62 .82 .86 .88 .79 .79 .87 .82 .67 .64 34 YPP21B 1630 1998 .75 .65 .50 .78 .83 .77 .79 .81 .80 .75 .57 .49 Av segment correlation .54 .62 .67 .82 .82 .81 .83 .82 .80 .76 .78 .85 .87 .84 .81 .81 .82 .82 .75 .68 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1925 1950 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 YPP01A 1543 1997 .84 .82 2 YPP01B 1539 1994 .87 .80 3 YPP02A 1580 1998 .75 .72 4 YPP02B 1479 1998 .50 .67 5 YPP03A 1486 1998 .72 .72 6 YPP03B 1436 1998 .85 .79 7 YPP04B 1507 1998 .70 .64 9 YPP05B 1497 1980 .72 .74 10 YPP06A 1620 1990 .79 .62 11 YPP06B 1627 1976 .76 .75 12 YPP07A 1853 1997 .83 .87 13 YPP07B 1778 1998 .74 .76 14 YPP08A 1661 1998 .80 .83 15 YPP08B 1586 1998 .74 .89 16 YPP09A 1793 1998 .66 .77 17 YPP09B 1826 1998 .72 .81 18 YPP10A 1620 1998 .54 .65 19 YPP10B 1652 1998 .60 .64 20 YPP11A 1810 1998 .78 .79 21 YPP11B 1815 1998 .76 .82 22 YPP12A 1652 1998 .66 .77 23 YPP12B 1671 1998 .76 .81 24 YPP13A 1638 1998 .50 .46 25 YPP13C 1637 1998 .51 .45 26 YPP15A 1458 1997 .72 .60 27 YPP15B 1449 1998 .65 .69 28 YPP16A 1524 1992 .58 .37 29 YPP16C 1503 1998 .68 .64 30 YPP20A 1699 1998 .72 .76 31 YPP20B 1575 1998 .72 .75 33 YPP21A 1615 1997 .58 .63 34 YPP21B 1630 1998 .67 .77 Av segment correlation .70 .71 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== YPP01A 1543 to 1997 455 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .865) is: Lower 1544 -.004 1566 -.003 1894 -.002 1980 -.002 Higher 1735 .004 1847 .003 1953 .003 1600 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1899 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP01B 1539 to 1994 456 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .863) is: Lower 1986 -.004 1638 -.003 1544 -.003 1916 -.003 Higher 1686 .005 1654 .005 1735 .004 1953 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1638 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP02A 1580 to 1998 419 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .838) is: Lower 1600 -.008 1971 -.008 1959 -.003 1676 -.003 Higher 1654 .007 1735 .006 1686 .005 1953 .004 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -3.685 27 2 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1600 +3.8 SD; 1735 -4.8 SD; 1971 -4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP02B 1479 to 1998 520 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .755) is: Lower 1479 -.025 1480 -.011 1782 -.007 1567 -.003 Higher 1686 .008 1735 .008 1522 .007 1847 .005 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -3.685 27 2 1777 -1.094 27 1 1931 -.593 32 1 1936 -1.874 32 1 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1479-11.0 SD; 1480 -7.2 SD; 1567 +3.0 SD; 1782 +4.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP03A 1486 to 1998 513 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .770) is: Lower 1670 -.005 1831 -.004 1771 -.004 1649 -.003 Higher 1600 .007 1522 .006 1686 .005 1584 .004 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1857 -1.356 33 1 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1670 +4.4 SD; 1686 -6.1 SD; 1831 +4.1 SD; 1883 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP03B 1436 to 1998 563 years Series 6 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1436 to 1448 -- not matched by another series [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1449 1498 0 -.02 -.01 .06 -.12 -.23 -.12 .18 -.06 -.10 -.20 .32* .01 -.17 -.01 .24 -.01 -.12 .06 .04 -.09 -.20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .789) is: Lower 1479 -.018 1879 -.003 1449 -.003 1670 -.003 Higher 1600 .006 1686 .005 1735 .005 1953 .005 1449 to 1498 segment: Lower 1479 -.146 1449 -.031 1492 -.028 1474 -.015 Higher 1464 .044 1486 .027 1454 .023 1466 .021 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1479 +7.4 SD; 1522 +3.2 SD; 1584 -5.4 SD; 1670 +3.3 SD; 1686 -4.9 SD; 1879 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP04B 1507 to 1998 492 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .725) is: Lower 1654 -.006 1703 -.006 1773 -.004 1917 -.004 Higher 1686 .008 1600 .007 1735 .006 1584 .005 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1864 -2.046 33 1 1882 -1.980 32 1 [E] Outliers 8 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1522 +3.2 SD; 1600 -5.6 SD; 1654 +4.7 SD; 1670 +3.1 SD; 1676 +3.6 SD; 1703 -7.2 SD; 1773 +3.7 SD; 1789 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP05A 1489 to 1877 389 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .821) is: Lower 1675 -.006 1490 -.005 1691 -.004 1506 -.004 Higher 1522 .008 1735 .005 1686 .004 1847 .004 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1847 -2.942 32 1 1861 -2.194 33 1 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1522 -4.5 SD; 1648 +3.1 SD; 1675 +3.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP05B 1497 to 1980 484 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .791) is: Lower 1500 -.006 1498 -.005 1652 -.003 1962 -.003 Higher 1522 .009 1735 .006 1953 .004 1584 .004 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1500 +4.1 SD; 1501 +3.3 SD; 1522 -4.8 SD; 1652 +3.1 SD; 1916 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP06A 1620 to 1990 371 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .819) is: Lower 1675 -.013 1983 -.009 1989 -.005 1981 -.005 Higher 1735 .007 1686 .006 1899 .004 1763 .004 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1675 -7.4 SD; 1983 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP06B 1627 to 1976 350 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .858) is: Lower 1675 -.009 1974 -.005 1659 -.004 1955 -.002 Higher 1654 .008 1735 .007 1829 .003 1686 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1675 -6.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP07A 1853 to 1997 145 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .851) is: Lower 1922 -.007 1929 -.006 1915 -.005 1995 -.005 Higher 1953 .015 1996 .007 1899 .005 1882 .005 =================================================================================================================================== YPP07B 1778 to 1998 221 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .791) is: Lower 1800 -.008 1879 -.007 1830 -.007 1927 -.007 Higher 1953 .013 1847 .012 1899 .010 1789 .006 =================================================================================================================================== YPP08A 1661 to 1998 338 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .810) is: Lower 1913 -.005 1792 -.003 1742 -.003 1936 -.003 Higher 1686 .008 1847 .006 1773 .005 1829 .004 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1953 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP08B 1586 to 1998 413 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .769) is: Lower 1820 -.006 1934 -.004 1589 -.004 1754 -.003 Higher 1654 .011 1847 .006 1829 .004 1735 .004 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1600 +3.0 SD; 1820 +3.5 SD; 1934 +3.1 SD; 1953 -7.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP09A 1793 to 1998 206 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .735) is: Lower 1923 -.012 1841 -.012 1880 -.009 1916 -.008 Higher 1829 .010 1847 .009 1899 .009 1996 .008 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1802 +3.6 SD; 1841 -4.8 SD; 1880 +3.4 SD; 1916 +3.1 SD; 1923 +3.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP09B 1826 to 1998 173 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .736) is: Lower 1931 -.013 1923 -.011 1955 -.007 1963 -.006 Higher 1953 .023 1829 .014 1899 .013 1977 .005 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1931 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP10A 1620 to 1998 379 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .757) is: Lower 1956 -.009 1896 -.008 1953 -.004 1829 -.004 Higher 1654 .013 1735 .006 1899 .006 1773 .006 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1829 +3.1 SD; 1896 +3.4 SD; 1931 -5.0 SD; 1953 +3.1 SD; 1956 -6.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP10B 1652 to 1998 347 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .774) is: Lower 1736 -.007 1829 -.005 1903 -.005 1953 -.004 Higher 1654 .011 1735 .011 1686 .010 1899 .005 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1736 +4.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP11A 1810 to 1998 189 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .784) is: Lower 1951 -.018 1923 -.018 1841 -.017 1917 -.005 Higher 1953 .016 1847 .011 1813 .010 1845 .007 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1841 -4.9 SD; 1923 +4.5 SD; 1951 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP11B 1815 to 1998 184 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .787) is: Lower 1923 -.015 1861 -.007 1951 -.007 1936 -.005 Higher 1953 .016 1829 .010 1847 .009 1996 .007 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1923 +4.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP12A 1652 to 1998 347 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .772) is: Lower 1879 -.008 1654 -.007 1963 -.006 1686 -.005 Higher 1735 .011 1782 .004 1763 .004 1722 .004 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1654 +3.4 SD; 1660 +3.3 SD; 1686 +3.5 SD; 1879 -5.9 SD; 1916 +3.1 SD; 1929 +3.3 SD; 1963 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP12B 1671 to 1998 328 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .810) is: Lower 1700 -.006 1929 -.006 1963 -.004 1845 -.004 Higher 1735 .006 1953 .005 1763 .004 1829 .003 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1845 -5.7 SD; 1929 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP13A 1638 to 1998 361 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .673) is: Lower 1977 -.037 1829 -.007 1974 -.006 1923 -.005 Higher 1789 .006 1729 .005 1686 .005 1773 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 -5.6 SD 1977 1978 6.4 SD [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1977 -1.799 31 2 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1829 +3.7 SD; 1925 +3.1 SD; 1953 +3.9 SD; 1974 +3.2 SD; 1977-12.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP13C 1637 to 1998 362 years Series 25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .678) is: Lower 1977 -.033 1829 -.011 1974 -.008 1973 -.004 Higher 1735 .007 1789 .006 1729 .005 1845 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 -5.5 SD 1977 1978 5.8 SD [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1956 -1.100 32 1 1977 -1.799 31 2 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1829 +4.5 SD; 1870 +3.0 SD; 1953 +3.2 SD; 1956 -5.3 SD; 1974 +3.7 SD; 1977-11.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP15A 1458 to 1997 540 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .783) is: Lower 1781 -.005 1479 -.003 1951 -.003 1832 -.003 Higher 1654 .007 1847 .005 1686 .004 1953 .004 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1479 +3.2 SD; 1915 +3.5 SD; 1951 +3.3 SD; 1997 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP15B 1449 to 1998 550 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .783) is: Lower 1563 -.005 1822 -.004 1931 -.004 1449 -.003 Higher 1654 .007 1847 .004 1735 .004 1686 .004 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1563 +3.6 SD; 1822 +3.8 SD; 1931 +4.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP16A 1524 to 1992 469 years Series 28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .765) is: Lower 1648 -.006 1981 -.006 1701 -.004 1974 -.004 Higher 1600 .007 1686 .006 1735 .006 1847 .006 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1648 -4.7 SD; 1931 +3.4 SD; 1981 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP16C 1503 to 1998 496 years Series 29 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .760) is: Lower 1828 -.007 1989 -.006 1648 -.003 1675 -.003 Higher 1522 .010 1600 .007 1847 .005 1899 .004 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1828 -5.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP20A 1699 to 1998 300 years Series 30 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .814) is: Lower 1829 -.005 1981 -.004 1899 -.004 1950 -.004 Higher 1735 .011 1813 .004 1996 .004 1773 .004 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1829 -6.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP20B 1575 to 1998 424 years Series 31 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .810) is: Lower 1675 -.005 1835 -.004 1584 -.004 1845 -.004 Higher 1686 .008 1626 .004 1735 .003 1654 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1675 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP20C 1558 to 1686 129 years Series 32 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .780) is: Lower 1686 -.026 1567 -.007 1668 -.007 1675 -.006 Higher 1654 .030 1600 .019 1626 .010 1613 .006 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1686 +4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP21A 1615 to 1997 383 years Series 33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .714) is: Lower 1622 -.017 1953 -.010 1819 -.007 1675 -.006 Higher 1654 .016 1735 .010 1773 .007 1813 .006 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1622 -6.4 SD; 1632 -5.2 SD; 1675 +3.4 SD; 1686 +3.3 SD; 1916 +3.0 SD; 1923 +3.2 SD; 1953 +4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== YPP21B 1630 to 1998 369 years Series 34 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .716) is: Lower 1931 -.008 1675 -.006 1685 -.005 1923 -.004 Higher 1654 .014 1847 .008 1773 .008 1735 .006 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1675 +3.6 SD; 1684 +3.2 SD; 1685 +3.9 SD; 1686 +4.0 SD; 1883 -4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Yovimpa Point 16:20 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 YPP01A 1543 1997 455 18 0 .865 .41 1.51 .242 .725 .320 2.61 .351 -.036 4 2 YPP01B 1539 1994 456 18 0 .863 .42 1.66 .234 .725 .322 2.61 .348 -.047 2 3 YPP02A 1580 1998 419 16 0 .838 .31 1.02 .157 .745 .304 2.50 .339 -.019 1 4 YPP02B 1479 1998 520 20 0 .755 .30 1.30 .212 .845 .349 2.45 .273 -.011 1 5 YPP03A 1486 1998 513 20 0 .770 .58 1.45 .258 .610 .338 2.52 .282 -.027 2 6 YPP03B 1436 1998 563 22 1 .789 .53 1.96 .324 .818 .306 2.53 .316 -.028 1 7 YPP04B 1507 1998 492 19 0 .725 .25 1.02 .144 .725 .378 2.53 .314 -.025 1 8 YPP05A 1489 1877 389 16 0 .821 .72 2.87 .558 .858 .338 2.55 .327 -.051 2 9 YPP05B 1497 1980 484 20 0 .791 .64 2.63 .461 .846 .342 2.55 .324 -.031 2 10 YPP06A 1620 1990 371 15 0 .819 .70 2.58 .441 .718 .405 2.52 .373 -.041 1 11 YPP06B 1627 1976 350 14 0 .858 .59 2.00 .342 .658 .400 2.69 .429 -.041 1 12 YPP07A 1853 1997 145 5 0 .851 .40 .87 .164 .608 .336 2.70 .512 -.034 1 13 YPP07B 1778 1998 221 8 0 .791 .30 .61 .111 .630 .282 2.60 .401 -.071 1 14 YPP08A 1661 1998 338 13 0 .810 .59 1.87 .307 .746 .299 2.59 .327 -.044 1 15 YPP08B 1586 1998 413 16 0 .769 .53 1.94 .282 .643 .322 2.50 .298 -.027 1 16 YPP09A 1793 1998 206 8 0 .735 1.25 3.16 .571 .664 .314 2.69 .454 -.054 3 17 YPP09B 1826 1998 173 6 0 .736 1.18 2.66 .535 .697 .307 2.44 .402 -.047 1 18 YPP10A 1620 1998 379 15 0 .757 .69 2.45 .302 .596 .298 2.58 .400 -.014 1 19 YPP10B 1652 1998 347 13 0 .774 .61 1.58 .215 .546 .276 2.48 .339 -.025 1 20 YPP11A 1810 1998 189 7 0 .784 1.19 3.59 .838 .836 .306 2.59 .444 -.078 1 21 YPP11B 1815 1998 184 7 0 .787 1.14 3.97 .928 .903 .254 2.45 .382 -.075 1 22 YPP12A 1652 1998 347 13 0 .772 .59 1.38 .216 .478 .316 2.62 .388 -.054 1 23 YPP12B 1671 1998 328 13 0 .810 .61 1.35 .215 .496 .303 2.55 .380 -.047 1 24 YPP13A 1638 1998 361 14 0 .673 .67 1.67 .272 .526 .339 2.33 .229 -.012 1 25 YPP13C 1637 1998 362 14 0 .678 .54 1.52 .231 .623 .339 2.50 .237 -.017 1 26 YPP15A 1458 1997 540 21 0 .783 .61 3.64 .610 .936 .204 2.55 .322 -.010 3 27 YPP15B 1449 1998 550 22 0 .783 .57 2.78 .440 .937 .184 2.42 .292 -.009 1 28 YPP16A 1524 1992 469 19 0 .765 .71 1.85 .328 .812 .242 2.55 .345 -.039 1 29 YPP16C 1503 1998 496 19 0 .760 .66 1.87 .339 .835 .237 2.55 .341 -.035 1 30 YPP20A 1699 1998 300 12 0 .814 .28 .59 .112 .564 .335 2.61 .343 -.006 1 31 YPP20B 1575 1998 424 16 0 .810 .36 1.31 .273 .905 .317 2.65 .380 -.004 1 32 YPP20C 1558 1686 129 5 0 .780 .63 1.89 .334 .892 .193 2.50 .346 -.043 1 33 YPP21A 1615 1997 383 15 0 .714 .81 3.16 .661 .926 .235 2.49 .346 -.033 2 34 YPP21B 1630 1998 369 14 0 .716 .74 3.50 .662 .921 .242 2.62 .426 -.034 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 12665 493 1 .781 .58 3.97 .348 .746 .303 2.70 .342 -.031 - = [ COFECHA YOVIMCOF ] = -