[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run LHEND Program COF 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Lower Henderson File of DATED series: ut518.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: HCL 1 Lower Henderson Canyon PIED Text in file: HCL 2 Utah Pinyon Pine 2100M 3739-11158 __ 1507 2000 Text in file: HCL 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1507 to 1999 493 years Continuous time span is 1507 to 1999 493 years Portion with two or more series is 1569 to 1999 431 years >> HCL08A 1994 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.203 >> HCL08B 1986 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.013 >> HCL08B 1994 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.203 >> HCL09A 1986 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.013 >> HCL09A 1994 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.203 >> HCL09B 1986 absent in 3 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.013 >> HCL12A 1770 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.260 >> HCL14B 1961 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .227 >> HCL14B 1970 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.170 >> HCL16B 1998 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .350 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 16 *C* *O* Master series 1507 1999 493 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 4754 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 4692 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .828 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .467 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 0 *A* *** Mean length of series 297.1 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) HCL03A 9 absent rings: 1729 1780 1822 1824 1856 1857 1864 1879 1899 HCL03B 6 absent rings: 1729 1856 1857 1864 1879 1899 HCL06A 17 absent rings: 1632 1665 1707 1735 1780 1813 1820 1824 1829 1841 1864 1879 1882 1883 1896 1899 1974 HCL06B 18 absent rings: 1665 1707 1729 1735 1780 1824 1847 1856 1857 1861 1864 1879 1894 1896 1899 1936 1953 1977 HCL08A 3 absent rings: 1977 1994 1996 HCL08B 4 absent rings: 1974 1977 1986 1994 HCL09A 7 absent rings: 1857 1864 1899 1977 1986 1994 1996 HCL09B 5 absent rings: 1864 1899 1977 1986 1996 HCL10A 5 absent rings: 1735 1856 1857 1864 1871 HCL10B 7 absent rings: 1735 1847 1857 1864 1899 1902 1936 HCL12A 7 absent rings: 1729 1735 1742 1770 1780 1829 1847 HCL12B 11 absent rings: 1780 1841 1847 1857 1861 1864 1879 1899 1956 1977 1996 HCL14A 8 absent rings: 1670 1773 1780 1824 1861 1864 1899 1956 HCL14B 6 absent rings: 1670 1735 1899 1961 1963 1970 HCL16B 2 absent rings: 1780 1998 115 absent rings 2.419% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===========================>. HCL03A 1 1717 1999 283 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===========================>. HCL03B 2 1717 1999 283 . . . . . . . . . . . .<==========================================>. HCL06A 3 1569 1999 431 . . . . . . . . . . <================================================>. HCL06B 4 1507 1999 493 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<======================>. HCL08A 5 1768 1999 232 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================>. HCL08B 6 1772 1999 228 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. HCL09A 7 1800 1999 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================>. HCL09B 8 1793 1999 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================> . . . HCL10A 9 1692 1880 189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . HCL10B 10 1686 1950 265 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========================> . . . HCL12A 11 1590 1850 261 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================================>. HCL12B 12 1590 1999 410 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. HCL14A 13 1611 1999 389 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. HCL14B 14 1611 1999 389 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================>. HCL16A 15 1753 1999 247 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================>. HCL16B 16 1753 1999 247 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1550 .189 1 1600 -1.227 4 1650 .103 6 1551 .293 1 1601 -.726 4 1651 1.323 6 1552 1.049 1 1602 .021 4 1652 -.208 6 1553 1.590 1 1603 .006 4 1653 -.061 6 1554 1.162 1 1604 1.605 4 1654 -3.836 6 1555 1.645 1 1605 .422 4 1655 -.649 6 1556 1.622 1 1606 .517 4 1656 .766 6 1507 1.534 1 1557 .777 1 1607 -.144 4 1657 .561 6 1508 -.181 1 1558 -.932 1 1608 .008 4 1658 .067 6 1509 -.402 1 1559 .175 1 1609 .884 4 1659 .454 6 1510 1.225 1 1560 -.825 1 1610 .770 4 1660 .765 6 1511 .128 1 1561 -1.960 1 1611 -.110 6 1661 .456 6 1512 -.838 1 1562 .272 1 1612 .598 6 1662 .934 6 1513 -1.034 1 1563 -.334 1 1613 -2.320 6 1663 .478 6 1514 -1.260 1 1564 .810 1 1614 -.086 6 1664 1.360 6 1515 -1.325 1 1565 -.203 1 1615 .811 6 1665 -1.329 6 2 1516 -.391 1 1566 -.369 1 1616 -.393 6 1666 .021 6 1517 -1.298 1 1567 -.530 1 1617 .214 6 1667 -.480 6 1518 .015 1 1568 .746 1 1618 .437 6 1668 -.495 6 1519 .761 1 1569 1.298 2 1619 .002 6 1669 -.822 6 1520 1.357 1 1570 1.098 2 1620 .939 6 1670 -3.194 6 2 1521 .000 1 1571 .234 2 1621 1.337 6 1671 .128 6 1522 -1.817 1 1572 -.462 2 1622 .208 6 1672 -.289 6 1523 -.152 1 1573 -.662 2 1623 -.858 6 1673 .438 6 1524 -.211 1 1574 -.009 2 1624 -.377 6 1674 1.546 6 1525 .977 1 1575 -.047 2 1625 .939 6 1675 .121 6 1526 .999 1 1576 -1.539 2 1626 -2.499 6 1676 -.150 6 1527 .801 1 1577 .510 2 1627 .486 6 1677 .606 6 1528 .626 1 1578 .259 2 1628 -.172 6 1678 .252 6 1529 .300 1 1579 -.771 2 1629 .042 6 1679 -.543 6 1530 1.249 1 1580 .727 2 1630 -.452 6 1680 .738 6 1531 .935 1 1581 1.494 2 1631 -1.262 6 1681 .849 6 1532 -.716 1 1582 1.211 2 1632 -2.868 6 1 1682 .620 6 1533 .773 1 1583 .378 2 1633 .576 6 1683 .586 6 1534 1.759 1 1584 -1.082 2 1634 -.436 6 1684 -1.245 6 1535 -1.433 1 1585 -2.466 2 1635 1.136 6 1685 -1.464 6 1536 -.562 1 1586 .570 2 1636 1.207 6 1686 -3.493 7 1537 -.241 1 1587 .821 2 1637 .483 6 1687 .496 7 1538 -1.960 1 1588 -.148 2 1638 -.129 6 1688 .634 7 1539 -1.057 1 1589 .114 2 1639 .047 6 1689 .727 7 1540 .042 1 1590 -1.308 4 1640 1.305 6 1690 .392 7 1541 .193 1 1591 -.229 4 1641 .942 6 1691 .559 7 1542 -1.879 1 1592 -1.072 4 1642 -.316 6 1692 1.429 8 1543 -.927 1 1593 -.210 4 1643 .116 6 1693 .041 8 1544 -1.072 1 1594 .815 4 1644 .513 6 1694 .657 8 1545 -1.720 1 1595 .648 4 1645 -.405 6 1695 .645 8 1546 -.658 1 1596 1.155 4 1646 .092 6 1696 .038 8 1547 .016 1 1597 .327 4 1647 .942 6 1697 .403 8 1548 .134 1 1598 -.339 4 1648 -2.185 6 1698 -1.293 8 1549 -.075 1 1599 .770 4 1649 .416 6 1699 .449 8 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .273 8 1750 -.552 10 1800 -1.594 16 1850 .758 16 1900 -.139 14 1950 -.305 14 1701 .666 8 1751 -.531 10 1801 -.331 16 1851 .560 15 1901 -.041 14 1951 -.622 13 1702 -.220 8 1752 -.423 10 1802 .612 16 1852 .824 15 1902 -2.576 14 1 1952 1.292 13 1703 -4.106 8 1753 .052 12 1803 -.937 16 1853 .964 15 1903 .021 14 1953 -.861 13 1 1704 .353 8 1754 .315 12 1804 .594 16 1854 .772 15 1904 -.958 14 1954 .608 13 1705 1.286 8 1755 -.108 12 1805 -.293 16 1855 .649 15 1905 .206 14 1955 -.194 13 1706 .489 8 1756 -.236 12 1806 .406 16 1856 -1.203 15 4 1906 .659 14 1956 -2.127 13 2 1707 -3.052 8 2 1757 -.731 12 1807 1.027 16 1857 -1.812 15 7 1907 1.276 14 1957 .927 13 1708 -.169 8 1758 .214 12 1808 -.366 16 1858 -.425 15 1908 .715 14 1958 1.195 13 1709 -1.464 8 1759 1.187 12 1809 .096 16 1859 -.219 15 1909 .497 14 1959 -1.222 13 1710 .785 8 1760 .994 12 1810 .296 16 1860 -.507 15 1910 .903 14 1960 .133 13 1711 .201 8 1761 -1.175 12 1811 .987 16 1861 -.813 15 3 1911 .813 14 1961 .227 13 1<< 1712 .509 8 1762 .012 12 1812 .221 16 1862 1.388 15 1912 .098 14 1962 .682 13 1713 .196 8 1763 -.973 12 1813 -2.199 16 1 1863 .191 15 1913 .257 14 1963 -2.005 13 1 1714 .100 8 1764 .676 12 1814 .007 16 1864 -2.353 15 10 1914 1.204 14 1964 .156 13 1715 -.616 8 1765 .102 12 1815 .199 16 1865 .617 15 1915 .084 14 1965 .335 13 1716 .228 8 1766 1.085 12 1816 1.331 16 1866 1.040 15 1916 -.184 14 1966 -.169 13 1717 -.443 10 1767 .936 12 1817 1.062 16 1867 .319 15 1917 .814 14 1967 .606 13 1718 .909 10 1768 .735 13 1818 -.634 16 1868 1.377 15 1918 -.115 14 1968 .909 13 1719 .690 10 1769 .599 13 1819 1.117 16 1869 1.017 15 1919 -.581 14 1969 .975 13 1720 1.373 10 1770 -.260 13 1<< 1820 -1.503 16 1 1870 -1.001 15 1920 .141 14 1970 -.170 13 1<< 1721 -.418 10 1771 .747 13 1821 1.008 16 1871 -1.100 15 1 1921 .361 14 1971 -.399 13 1722 -1.225 10 1772 -.076 14 1822 -.700 16 1 1872 .261 15 1922 .422 14 1972 .008 13 1723 .538 10 1773 -1.627 14 1 1823 -.170 16 1873 -.328 15 1923 .574 14 1973 .606 13 1724 .751 10 1774 -1.417 14 1824 -1.222 16 4 1874 .796 15 1924 -1.135 14 1974 -2.269 13 2 1725 1.137 10 1775 1.009 14 1825 -.802 16 1875 .252 15 1925 -.575 14 1975 .374 13 1726 1.233 10 1776 .151 14 1826 -.072 16 1876 .296 15 1926 1.181 14 1976 .309 13 1727 .454 10 1777 .248 14 1827 -.464 16 1877 .451 15 1927 -.922 14 1977 -4.301 13 6 1728 -.489 10 1778 .243 14 1828 1.008 16 1878 -.258 15 1928 -.092 14 1978 .616 13 1729 -2.603 10 4 1779 .246 14 1829 -.483 16 2 1879 -1.393 15 5 1929 -.161 14 1979 .521 13 1730 -.236 10 1780 -2.185 14 7 1830 -.308 16 1880 .367 15 1930 -1.093 14 1980 .469 13 1731 .355 10 1781 -.508 14 1831 -.206 16 1881 -.494 14 1931 -1.059 14 1981 1.293 13 1732 -.225 10 1782 -.528 14 1832 .748 16 1882 -1.791 14 1 1932 1.062 14 1982 .702 13 1733 -.360 10 1783 .339 14 1833 .627 16 1883 -1.610 14 1 1933 -.249 14 1983 1.066 13 1734 1.035 10 1784 1.142 14 1834 .491 16 1884 .727 14 1934 -1.223 14 1984 -.139 13 1735 -1.967 10 6 1785 -.115 14 1835 .304 16 1885 1.147 14 1935 .007 14 1985 .361 13 1736 -.535 10 1786 .423 14 1836 .466 16 1886 .544 14 1936 -1.972 14 2 1986 -.013 13 3<< 1737 -.374 10 1787 1.130 14 1837 .501 16 1887 .200 14 1937 .623 14 1987 .371 13 1738 1.333 10 1788 -1.702 14 1838 .899 16 1888 .733 14 1938 .902 14 1988 .875 13 1739 -.505 10 1789 -1.965 14 1839 .965 16 1889 .961 14 1939 -.428 14 1989 .104 13 1740 .017 10 1790 -.003 14 1840 .352 16 1890 1.422 14 1940 .283 14 1990 -1.321 13 1741 .433 10 1791 .861 14 1841 -1.649 16 2 1891 .983 14 1941 1.349 14 1991 -.715 13 1742 -1.589 10 1 1792 1.188 14 1842 -.329 16 1892 .707 14 1942 .650 14 1992 .289 13 1743 .998 10 1793 1.073 15 1843 -.933 16 1893 -.432 14 1943 .109 14 1993 .436 13 1744 .306 10 1794 .150 15 1844 .619 16 1894 -.929 14 1 1944 1.037 14 1994 -.203 13 3<< 1745 .551 10 1795 .549 15 1845 -.559 16 1895 .000 14 1945 -.244 14 1995 .859 13 1746 1.081 10 1796 -.419 15 1846 .180 16 1896 -1.629 14 2 1946 -1.306 14 1996 -2.670 13 4 1747 1.095 10 1797 .392 15 1847 -2.263 16 4 1897 .331 14 1947 .462 14 1997 .458 13 1748 -1.426 10 1798 -.618 15 1848 .232 16 1898 .697 14 1948 -.189 14 1998 .350 13 1<< 1749 .703 10 1799 .141 15 1849 1.126 16 1899 -4.193 14 10 1949 1.275 14 1999 .657 13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1550-----A 1551------A 1552---------D 1553----------F 1554----------E 1555----------G 1556----------F 1507----------F 1557--------C 1508---a 1558-d 1509--b 1559-----A 1510----------E 1560-c 1511-----A 1561h 1512-c 1562-----A 1513-d 1563---a 1514-e 1564--------C 1515-e 1565---a 1516--b 1566---a 1517-e 1567--b 1518----@ 1568--------C 1519--------C 1569----------E 1520----------E 1570---------D 1521----@ 1571-----A 1522g 1572--b 1523---a 1573--c 1524---a 1574----@ 1525---------D 1575----@ 1526---------D 1576f 1527--------C 1577-------B 1528-------C 1578-----A 1529------A 1579--c 1530----------E 1580--------C 1531---------D 1581----------F 1532--c 1582----------E 1533--------C 1583------B 1534----------G 1584-d 1535-f 1585j 1536--b 1586-------B 1537---a 1587--------C 1538h 1588---a 1539-d 1589-----@ 1540----@ 1590-e 1541-----A 1591---a 1542h 1592-d 1543-d 1593---a 1544-d 1594--------C 1545g 1595-------C 1546--c 1596----------E 1547----@ 1597------A 1548-----A 1598---a 1549----@ 1599--------C PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600-e 1650-----@ 1700-----A 1750--b 1800f 1850--------C 1900---a 1950---a 1601--c 1651----------E 1701--------C 1751--b 1801---a 1851-------B 1901----@ 1951--b 1602----@ 1652---a 1702---a 1752--b 1802-------B 1852--------C 1902j 1952----------E 1603----@ 1653----@ 1703p 1753----@ 1803-d 1853---------D 1903----@ 1953-c 1604----------F 1654o 1704------A 1754------A 1804-------B 1854--------C 1904-d 1954-------B 1605------B 1655--c 1705----------E 1755----@ 1805---a 1855-------C 1905-----A 1955---a 1606-------B 1656--------C 1706-------B 1756---a 1806------B 1856-e 1906--------C 1956i 1607---a 1657-------B 1707l 1757--c 1807---------D 1857g 1907----------E 1957---------D 1608----@ 1658----@ 1708---a 1758-----A 1808---a 1858--b 1908--------C 1958----------E 1609---------D 1659------B 1709-f 1759----------E 1809----@ 1859---a 1909-------B 1959-e 1610--------C 1660--------C 1710--------C 1760---------D 1810------A 1860--b 1910---------D 1960-----A 1611----@ 1661------B 1711-----A 1761-e 1811---------D 1861-c 1911--------C 1961-----A 1612-------B 1662---------D 1712-------B 1762----@ 1812-----A 1862----------F 1912-----@ 1962--------C 1613i 1663-------B 1713-----A 1763-d 1813i 1863-----A 1913-----A 1963h 1614----@ 1664----------E 1714-----@ 1764--------C 1814----@ 1864i 1914----------E 1964-----A 1615--------C 1665-e 1715--b 1765-----@ 1815-----A 1865-------B 1915----@ 1965------A 1616--b 1666----@ 1716-----A 1766---------D 1816----------E 1866---------D 1916---a 1966---a 1617-----A 1667--b 1717--b 1767---------D 1817---------D 1867------A 1917--------C 1967-------B 1618------B 1668--b 1718---------D 1768--------C 1818--c 1868----------F 1918----@ 1968---------D 1619----@ 1669-c 1719--------C 1769-------B 1819---------D 1869---------D 1919--b 1969---------D 1620---------D 1670m 1720----------E 1770---a 1820-f 1870-d 1920-----A 1970---a 1621----------E 1671-----A 1721--b 1771--------C 1821---------D 1871-d 1921------A 1971--b 1622-----A 1672---a 1722-e 1772----@ 1822--c 1872-----A 1922------B 1972----@ 1623-c 1673------B 1723-------B 1773g 1823---a 1873---a 1923-------B 1973-------B 1624--b 1674----------F 1724--------C 1774-f 1824-e 1874--------C 1924-e 1974i 1625---------D 1675-----@ 1725---------E 1775---------D 1825-c 1875-----A 1925--b 1975------A 1626j 1676---a 1726----------E 1776-----A 1826----@ 1876------A 1926----------E 1976------A 1627-------B 1677-------B 1727------B 1777-----A 1827--b 1877------B 1927-d 1977q 1628---a 1678-----A 1728--b 1778-----A 1828---------D 1878---a 1928----@ 1978-------B 1629----@ 1679--b 1729j 1779-----A 1829--b 1879-f 1929---a 1979-------B 1630--b 1680--------C 1730---a 1780i 1830---a 1880------A 1930-d 1980-------B 1631-e 1681--------C 1731------A 1781--b 1831---a 1881--b 1931-d 1981----------E 1632k 1682-------B 1732---a 1782--b 1832--------C 1882g 1932---------D 1982--------C 1633-------B 1683-------B 1733---a 1783------A 1833-------C 1883f 1933---a 1983---------D 1634--b 1684-e 1734---------D 1784---------E 1834-------B 1884--------C 1934-e 1984---a 1635---------E 1685-f 1735h 1785----@ 1835------A 1885----------E 1935----@ 1985------A 1636----------E 1686n 1736--b 1786------B 1836-------B 1886-------B 1936h 1986----@ 1637-------B 1687-------B 1737--a 1787---------E 1837-------B 1887-----A 1937-------B 1987------A 1638---a 1688-------C 1738----------E 1788g 1838---------D 1888--------C 1938---------D 1988---------C 1639----@ 1689--------C 1739--b 1789h 1839---------D 1889---------D 1939--b 1989-----@ 1640----------E 1690------B 1740----@ 1790----@ 1840------A 1890----------F 1940------A 1990-e 1641---------D 1691-------B 1741------B 1791--------C 1841g 1891---------D 1941----------E 1991--c 1642---a 1692----------F 1742f 1792----------E 1842---a 1892--------C 1942-------C 1992------A 1643-----@ 1693----@ 1743---------D 1793---------D 1843-d 1893--b 1943-----@ 1993------B 1644-------B 1694--------C 1744------A 1794-----A 1844-------B 1894-d 1944---------D 1994---a 1645--b 1695-------C 1745-------B 1795-------B 1845--b 1895----@ 1945---a 1995--------C 1646----@ 1696----@ 1746---------D 1796--b 1846-----A 1896g 1946-e 1996k 1647---------D 1697------B 1747---------D 1797------B 1847i 1897------A 1947-------B 1997------B 1648i 1698-e 1748-f 1798--b 1848-----A 1898--------C 1948---a 1998------A 1649------B 1699------B 1749--------C 1799-----A 1849---------E 1899q 1949----------E 1999--------C PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 HCL03A 1717 1999 .83 .83 .82 .83 .59 .52 .85 .88 .87 .90 .89 2 HCL03B 1717 1999 .81 .79 .75 .76 .73 .75 .91 .81 .66 .74 .89 3 HCL06A 1569 1999 .77 .77 .82 .86 .83 .75 .79 .83 .77 .76 .71 .72 .74 .72 .80 .70 .70 4 HCL06B 1507 1999 .77 .79 .82 .80 .82 .88 .89 .87 .82 .84 .84 .83 .86 .58 .62 .82 .66 5 HCL08A 1768 1999 .79 .81 .70 .80 .92 .87 .79 .86 .92 6 HCL08B 1772 1999 .64 .71 .67 .80 .96 .90 .84 .90 .75 7 HCL09A 1800 1999 .83 .86 .91 .84 .83 .93 .92 8 HCL09B 1793 1999 .81 .85 .91 .94 .85 .83 .93 .86 9 HCL10A 1692 1880 .94 .91 .76 .76 .88 .84 .81 .82 10 HCL10B 1686 1950 .92 .94 .89 .88 .88 .85 .86 .92 .86 .75 .75 11 HCL12A 1590 1850 .75 .82 .83 .80 .88 .90 .74 .79 .92 .79 .78 12 HCL12B 1590 1999 .71 .82 .87 .85 .87 .88 .85 .86 .89 .70 .60 .93 .88 .85 .90 .91 13 HCL14A 1611 1999 .86 .89 .92 .91 .92 .86 .76 .77 .72 .74 .85 .80 .76 .82 .70 14 HCL14B 1611 1999 .83 .86 .88 .93 .94 .87 .85 .91 .92 .93 .94 .80 .75 .70 .54 15 HCL16A 1753 1999 .81 .87 .88 .89 .94 .90 .78 .81 .84 16 HCL16B 1753 1999 .72 .82 .82 .82 .90 .83 .80 .88 .85 Av segment correlation .77 .75 .83 .85 .85 .89 .88 .83 .79 .83 .78 .79 .89 .82 .78 .83 .80 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== HCL03A 1717 to 1999 283 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .820) is: Lower 1996 -.010 1830 -.007 1841 -.005 1822 -.004 Higher 1977 .012 1974 .004 1780 .004 1936 .002 [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.603 10 4 1780 -2.185 14 7 1822 -.700 16 1 1824 -1.222 16 4 1856 -1.203 15 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1864 -2.353 15 10 1879 -1.393 15 5 1899 -4.193 14 10 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1830 +4.9 SD; 1841 +3.9 SD; 1843 -5.2 SD; 1847 +3.9 SD; 1977 -5.2 SD; 1996 -7.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL03B 1717 to 1999 283 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .812) is: Lower 1936 -.006 1800 -.006 1825 -.005 1801 -.005 Higher 1977 .013 1996 .007 1899 .005 1729 .004 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.603 10 4 1856 -1.203 15 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1864 -2.353 15 10 1879 -1.393 15 5 1899 -4.193 14 10 [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1739 +3.3 SD; 1800 +4.6 SD; 1801 +4.4 SD; 1825 +4.1 SD; 1826 +3.1 SD; 1840 +3.1 SD; 1936 +4.2 SD; 1937 +3.7 SD; 1963 +3.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL06A 1569 to 1999 431 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .782) is: Lower 1665 -.020 1709 -.005 1856 -.004 1965 -.004 Higher 1707 .005 1654 .005 1686 .005 1899 .004 [D] 17 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1632 -2.868 6 1 1665 -1.329 6 2 1707 -3.052 8 2 1735 -1.967 10 6 1780 -2.185 14 7 1813 -2.199 16 1 1820 -1.503 16 1 1824 -1.222 16 4 1829 -.483 16 2 1841 -1.649 16 2 1864 -2.353 15 10 1879 -1.393 15 5 1882 -1.791 14 1 1883 -1.610 14 1 1896 -1.629 14 2 1899 -4.193 14 10 1974 -2.269 13 2 [E] Outliers 11 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1613 -6.3 SD; 1665-13.1 SD; 1670 +3.2 SD; 1703 +3.1 SD; 1709 +4.5 SD; 1829 -4.7 SD; 1841 -7.0 SD; 1856 +4.5 SD; 1963 +3.6 SD; 1965 -4.7 SD; 1977 +4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL06B 1507 to 1999 493 years Series 4 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1507 to 1568 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .812) is: Lower 1994 -.010 1670 -.005 1665 -.005 1923 -.005 Higher 1977 .006 1654 .005 1707 .005 1686 .004 [D] 18 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1665 -1.329 6 2 1707 -3.052 8 2 1729 -2.603 10 4 1735 -1.967 10 6 1780 -2.185 14 7 1824 -1.222 16 4 1847 -2.263 16 4 1856 -1.203 15 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1861 -.813 15 3 1864 -2.353 15 10 1879 -1.393 15 5 1894 -.929 14 1 1896 -1.629 14 2 1899 -4.193 14 10 1936 -1.972 14 2 1953 -.861 13 1 1977 -4.301 13 6 [E] Outliers 15 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1602 +3.2 SD; 1654 -5.0 SD; 1665 -7.6 SD; 1669 +3.7 SD; 1670 +5.6 SD; 1703 +3.9 SD; 1799 +3.4 SD; 1824 -4.9 SD; 1899 +3.1 SD; 1900 +3.4 SD; 1902 +4.5 SD; 1923 -5.5 SD; 1927 +3.5 SD; 1977 -8.1 SD; 1994 -8.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL08A 1768 to 1999 232 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .841) is: Lower 1825 -.015 1994 -.008 1800 -.005 1933 -.004 Higher 1977 .014 1974 .004 1902 .004 1899 .004 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1977 -4.301 13 6 1994 -.203 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1996 -2.670 13 4 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1770 +3.2 SD; 1800 +3.0 SD; 1813 +3.2 SD; 1825 -8.5 SD; 1916 +3.1 SD; 1994 -4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL08B 1772 to 1999 228 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .780) is: Lower 1825 -.024 1996 -.023 1994 -.011 1780 -.008 Higher 1899 .019 1974 .007 1847 .005 1902 .005 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1974 -2.269 13 2 1977 -4.301 13 6 1986 -.013 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1994 -.203 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1772 +4.7 SD; 1773 +4.3 SD; 1780 +4.1 SD; 1813 +3.8 SD; 1825-10.4 SD; 1924 +3.2 SD; 1986 -4.6 SD; 1994 -5.3 SD; 1996 +6.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL09A 1800 to 1999 200 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .858) is: Lower 1986 -.018 1800 -.010 1994 -.006 1825 -.006 Higher 1977 .014 1974 .005 1864 .004 1963 .004 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1857 -1.812 15 7 1864 -2.353 15 10 1899 -4.193 14 10 1977 -4.301 13 6 1986 -.013 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1994 -.203 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1996 -2.670 13 4 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1800 -6.6 SD; 1986 -7.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL09B 1793 to 1999 207 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .871) is: Lower 1986 -.024 1802 -.008 1991 -.006 1990 -.004 Higher 1977 .012 1899 .010 1974 .004 1902 .004 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1864 -2.353 15 10 1899 -4.193 14 10 1977 -4.301 13 6 1986 -.013 13 3 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1996 -2.670 13 4 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1802 -4.7 SD; 1986 -8.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL10A 1692 to 1880 189 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .858) is: Lower 1751 -.008 1752 -.004 1761 -.004 1750 -.004 Higher 1703 .014 1729 .005 1707 .005 1735 .004 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -1.967 10 6 1856 -1.203 15 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1864 -2.353 15 10 1871 -1.100 15 1 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1735 -4.8 SD; 1751 +4.2 SD; 1752 +3.3 SD; 1825 +3.1 SD; 1842 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL10B 1686 to 1950 265 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .891) is: Lower 1943 -.004 1825 -.003 1687 -.003 1818 -.003 Higher 1703 .007 1707 .004 1735 .003 1899 .002 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -1.967 10 6 1847 -2.263 16 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1864 -2.353 15 10 1899 -4.193 14 10 1902 -2.576 14 1 1936 -1.972 14 2 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1825 +3.5 SD; 1920 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL12A 1590 to 1850 261 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .798) is: Lower 1829 -.012 1770 -.011 1670 -.006 1595 -.005 Higher 1707 .008 1729 .006 1686 .005 1735 .005 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.603 10 4 1735 -1.967 10 6 1742 -1.589 10 1 1770 -.260 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1780 -2.185 14 7 1829 -.483 16 2 1847 -2.263 16 4 [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1595 +4.2 SD; 1613 +3.6 SD; 1654 +4.3 SD; 1670 -8.5 SD; 1742 -4.7 SD; 1755 +3.2 SD; 1770 -7.0 SD; 1827 +3.3 SD; 1829 -7.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL12B 1590 to 1999 410 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .848) is: Lower 1591 -.004 1590 -.004 1827 -.004 1612 -.003 Higher 1977 .005 1996 .003 1670 .002 1899 .002 [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1780 -2.185 14 7 1841 -1.649 16 2 1847 -2.263 16 4 1857 -1.812 15 7 1861 -.813 15 3 1864 -2.353 15 10 1879 -1.393 15 5 1899 -4.193 14 10 1956 -2.127 13 2 1977 -4.301 13 6 1996 -2.670 13 4 [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1590 +4.1 SD; 1591 +4.8 SD; 1668 +3.3 SD; 1703 +3.4 SD; 1827 +4.2 SD; 1831 +3.5 SD; 1841 -6.1 SD; 1977 -5.2 SD; 1996 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL14A 1611 to 1999 389 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .832) is: Lower 1977 -.020 1857 -.003 1833 -.002 1840 -.002 Higher 1899 .007 1703 .006 1654 .005 1670 .004 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1670 -3.194 6 2 1773 -1.627 14 1 1780 -2.185 14 7 1824 -1.222 16 4 1861 -.813 15 3 1864 -2.353 15 10 1899 -4.193 14 10 1956 -2.127 13 2 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1813 +3.3 SD; 1840 +3.5 SD; 1857 +3.7 SD; 1977 +9.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL14B 1611 to 1999 389 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .827) is: Lower 1961 -.007 1990 -.006 1996 -.005 1977 -.004 Higher 1899 .008 1703 .006 1670 .004 1686 .004 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1670 -3.194 6 2 1735 -1.967 10 6 1899 -4.193 14 10 1961 .227 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1963 -2.005 13 1 1970 -.170 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 12 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1612 +3.5 SD; 1613 +3.6 SD; 1703 -5.1 SD; 1763 +3.1 SD; 1902 +3.3 SD; 1961 -6.2 SD; 1970 -4.8 SD; 1971 +4.1 SD; 1974 +3.1 SD; 1977 +5.6 SD; 1990 +5.4 SD; 1996 +3.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL16A 1753 to 1999 247 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .857) is: Lower 1969 -.006 1999 -.004 1918 -.003 1934 -.003 Higher 1899 .012 1977 .011 1902 .004 1847 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1996 -6.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== HCL16B 1753 to 1999 247 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .817) is: Lower 1998 -.009 1753 -.007 1924 -.003 1996 -.003 Higher 1902 .005 1780 .004 1899 .003 1956 .003 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1780 -2.185 14 7 1998 .350 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1753 -4.6 SD; 1921 +3.1 SD; 1977 -8.7 SD; 1998 -5.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== [*] All segments correlate highest as dated with correlation with master series over .3281 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Lower Henderson 16:12 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 HCL03A 1717 1999 283 11 0 .820 .51 1.22 .250 .495 .488 2.42 .303 -.045 1 2 HCL03B 1717 1999 283 11 0 .812 .51 1.35 .249 .458 .462 2.62 .373 -.013 1 3 HCL06A 1569 1999 431 17 0 .782 .38 1.14 .225 .686 .482 2.44 .286 -.029 1 4 HCL06B 1507 1999 493 17 0 .812 .28 .70 .129 .468 .466 2.33 .281 -.020 1 5 HCL08A 1768 1999 232 9 0 .841 .74 2.76 .491 .825 .405 2.50 .348 -.012 1 6 HCL08B 1772 1999 228 9 0 .780 .70 2.29 .440 .778 .430 2.63 .425 -.040 1 7 HCL09A 1800 1999 200 7 0 .858 .63 1.61 .325 .526 .518 2.53 .423 -.044 1 8 HCL09B 1793 1999 207 8 0 .871 .71 1.64 .364 .538 .480 2.59 .436 -.060 1 9 HCL10A 1692 1880 189 8 0 .858 .59 1.57 .324 .542 .535 2.59 .392 -.025 1 10 HCL10B 1686 1950 265 11 0 .891 .51 1.50 .280 .495 .577 2.55 .440 -.013 1 11 HCL12A 1590 1850 261 11 0 .798 .33 .72 .144 .487 .460 2.56 .381 -.017 1 12 HCL12B 1590 1999 410 16 0 .848 .46 1.59 .253 .659 .465 2.47 .314 -.012 1 13 HCL14A 1611 1999 389 15 0 .832 .36 1.17 .192 .524 .499 2.72 .425 -.026 1 14 HCL14B 1611 1999 389 15 0 .827 .53 1.34 .237 .390 .462 2.52 .377 -.005 1 15 HCL16A 1753 1999 247 9 0 .857 .70 1.85 .278 .477 .351 2.50 .387 -.041 1 16 HCL16B 1753 1999 247 9 0 .817 .66 1.32 .250 .391 .384 2.40 .290 -.030 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 4754 183 0 .828 .50 2.76 .259 .543 .467 2.72 .358 -.025 - = [ COFECHA LHENDCOF ] = -