[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run ROUND Program COF 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Round Valley Draw File of DATED series: ut520.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: RVD 1 Round Valley Draw PIED Text in file: RVD 2 Utah Pinyon Pine 2000M 3725-11153 __ 1561 2000 Text in file: RVD 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1561 to 1999 439 years Continuous time span is 1561 to 1999 439 years Portion with two or more series is 1566 to 1999 434 years >> RVD02A 1783 absent in 2 of 19 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.187 >> RVD02A 1787 absent in 1 of 19 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is 1.064 >> RVD02B 1783 absent in 2 of 19 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.187 >> RVD03A 1889 absent in 4 of 24 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .594 >> RVD06A 1889 absent in 4 of 24 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .594 >> RVD06B 1889 absent in 4 of 24 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .594 >> RVD17A 1648 absent in 1 of 9 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .278 >> RVD17A 1733 absent in 1 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .257 >> RVD17B 1665 absent in 1 of 14 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .347 >> RVD17B 1913 absent in 1 of 24 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .070 >> RVD18C 1834 absent in 2 of 22 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.138 >> RVD19A 1834 absent in 2 of 22 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.138 >> RVD34B 1889 absent in 4 of 24 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .594 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 26 *C* *O* Master series 1561 1999 439 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 7614 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 7609 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .803 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .499 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 7 *A* *** Mean length of series 292.8 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) RVD01B 2 absent rings: 1882 1883 RVD02A 9 absent rings: 1722 1780 1783 1787 1931 1934 1936 1990 1996 RVD02B 17 absent rings: 1722 1729 1735 1739 1748 1761 1783 1813 1820 1847 1854 1858 1864 1882 1883 1896 1899 RVD03A 7 absent rings: 1735 1847 1864 1883 1889 1896 1899 RVD03B 11 absent rings: 1654 1735 1773 1847 1871 1931 1934 1953 1956 1967 1977 RVD06A 10 absent rings: 1729 1820 1847 1871 1882 1883 1889 1896 1899 1977 RVD06B 8 absent rings: 1722 1729 1847 1864 1883 1889 1896 1899 RVD08A 5 absent rings: 1864 1883 1899 1977 1996 RVD16A 4 absent rings: 1847 1861 1896 1899 RVD16B 8 absent rings: 1813 1820 1845 1854 1882 1883 1896 1899 RVD17A 18 absent rings: 1626 1648 1670 1707 1722 1729 1733 1735 1761 1820 1847 1854 1879 1882 1883 1896 1899 1977 RVD17B 13 absent rings: 1626 1654 1665 1670 1729 1861 1864 1879 1882 1883 1896 1904 1913 RVD18A 11 absent rings: 1780 1796 1847 1858 1864 1882 1883 1896 1899 1902 1977 RVD18B 6 absent rings: 1626 1686 1722 1729 1735 1761 RVD18C 10 absent rings: 1834 1841 1854 1858 1864 1879 1882 1896 1899 1902 RVD19A 9 absent rings: 1820 1834 1845 1864 1882 1883 1896 1899 1977 RVD20A 10 absent rings: 1820 1854 1858 1879 1882 1883 1894 1896 1899 1902 RVD20B 1 absent rings: 1899 RVD21A 3 absent rings: 1861 1882 1883 RVD29A 1 absent rings: 1899 RVD29B 1 absent rings: 1847 RVD30A 6 absent rings: 1686 1722 1729 1847 1896 1899 RVD33B 14 absent rings: 1707 1722 1729 1735 1761 1770 1788 1820 1845 1847 1871 1879 1896 1899 RVD34A 7 absent rings: 1690 1707 1722 1729 1735 1736 1773 RVD34B 13 absent rings: 1722 1735 1761 1847 1858 1864 1871 1883 1889 1896 1899 1959 1977 204 absent rings 2.679% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. RVD01A 1 1661 1999 339 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. RVD01B 2 1692 1999 308 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. RVD02A 3 1652 1999 348 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. RVD02B 4 1652 1999 348 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==============================> . . RVD03A 5 1611 1920 310 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. RVD03B 6 1611 1999 389 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. RVD06A 7 1707 1999 293 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. RVD06B 8 1707 1999 293 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. RVD08A 9 1850 1999 150 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================>. RVD16A 10 1728 1999 272 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================>. RVD16B 11 1728 1999 272 . . . . . . . . . . . .<==========================================>. RVD17A 12 1566 1999 434 . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======================================>. RVD17B 13 1596 1999 404 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. RVD18A 14 1628 1999 372 . . . . . . . . . . . .<====================> . . . . . RVD18B 15 1561 1770 210 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. RVD18C 16 1800 1999 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. RVD19A 17 1800 1999 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================================> . RVD20A 18 1633 1980 348 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===============================> . RVD20B 19 1665 1989 325 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. RVD21A 20 1853 1999 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. RVD29A 21 1820 1999 180 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================>. RVD29B 22 1820 1999 180 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================================>. RVD30A 23 1589 1999 411 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. RVD33B 24 1700 1999 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================> . . . . RVD34A 25 1600 1830 231 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. RVD34B 26 1650 1999 350 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1600 -1.129 5 1650 -.979 10 1601 -.645 5 1651 .961 10 1602 .144 5 1652 .107 12 1603 -1.025 5 1653 .601 12 1604 .958 5 1654 -3.400 12 2 1605 .345 5 1655 .405 12 1606 .109 5 1656 .833 12 1607 -.269 5 1657 .076 12 1608 .404 5 1658 -1.053 12 1609 .724 5 1659 -.273 12 1610 1.215 5 1660 .855 12 1561 .401 1 1611 -.185 7 1661 .722 13 1562 .453 1 1612 -.792 7 1662 .884 13 1563 -1.851 1 1613 -1.438 7 1663 .129 13 1564 -.572 1 1614 -.354 7 1664 .575 13 1565 2.086 1 1615 -.133 7 1665 .347 14 1<< 1566 .792 2 1616 -.316 7 1666 -.038 14 1567 -1.747 2 1617 .180 7 1667 -.600 14 1568 -.149 2 1618 .629 7 1668 -.464 14 1569 .444 2 1619 .925 7 1669 -1.282 14 1570 .693 2 1620 -.883 7 1670 -3.397 14 2 1571 1.540 2 1621 1.746 7 1671 -.570 14 1572 -1.478 2 1622 .717 7 1672 .257 14 1573 -.179 2 1623 .005 7 1673 .706 14 1574 -.722 2 1624 .070 7 1674 1.495 14 1575 -.025 2 1625 .829 7 1675 .099 14 1576 -.212 2 1626 -.931 7 3 1676 -.554 14 1577 .553 2 1627 -.345 7 1677 .599 14 1578 1.015 2 1628 .435 8 1678 .728 14 1579 -.652 2 1629 -.021 8 1679 .145 14 1580 .786 2 1630 .427 8 1680 .363 14 1581 .686 2 1631 -.758 8 1681 .928 14 1582 .786 2 1632 -2.625 8 1682 .763 14 1583 -.883 2 1633 .976 9 1683 1.109 14 1584 -2.457 2 1634 .455 9 1684 -.388 14 1585 -2.501 2 1635 1.466 9 1685 -1.679 14 1586 1.114 2 1636 .346 9 1686 -2.926 14 2 1587 1.005 2 1637 -1.204 9 1687 .873 14 1588 .893 2 1638 -1.338 9 1688 .374 14 1589 1.126 3 1639 -.624 9 1689 .065 14 1590 -.088 3 1640 .878 9 1690 -.735 14 1 1591 -.662 3 1641 -.091 9 1691 .041 14 1592 -.715 3 1642 .092 9 1692 .534 15 1593 .493 3 1643 -.273 9 1693 -.681 15 1594 .703 3 1644 .336 9 1694 .366 15 1595 -.729 3 1645 .209 9 1695 .501 15 1596 1.012 4 1646 -.043 9 1696 -.110 15 1597 -1.184 4 1647 .887 9 1697 .901 15 1598 .037 4 1648 .278 9 1<< 1698 -1.947 15 1599 .978 4 1649 .758 9 1699 .356 15 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .218 16 1750 -.127 20 1800 -.705 21 1850 .341 23 1900 -.359 24 1950 -.276 23 1701 1.268 16 1751 -.657 20 1801 -.183 21 1851 .227 23 1901 -.252 24 1951 -.728 23 1702 .996 16 1752 .305 20 1802 1.025 21 1852 1.007 23 1902 -2.242 24 3 1952 1.356 23 1703 -2.824 16 1753 -.119 20 1803 -.138 21 1853 1.101 24 1903 .165 24 1953 -.947 23 1 1704 .933 16 1754 -.099 20 1804 1.001 21 1854 -.479 24 5 1904 -1.605 24 1 1954 .406 23 1705 .685 16 1755 -1.340 20 1805 -2.074 21 1855 .339 24 1905 .238 24 1955 .490 23 1706 -.028 16 1756 .423 20 1806 -.300 21 1856 .077 24 1906 .496 24 1956 -2.522 23 1 1707 -2.168 18 3 1757 -.331 20 1807 .939 21 1857 -.302 24 1907 .948 24 1957 .870 23 1708 .183 18 1758 .515 20 1808 -1.287 21 1858 -.908 24 5 1908 .286 24 1958 1.152 23 1709 -1.671 18 1759 .669 20 1809 -.054 21 1859 -.381 24 1909 .013 24 1959 -2.036 23 1 1710 .267 18 1760 .937 20 1810 .289 21 1860 -.985 24 1910 .817 24 1960 .663 23 1711 .274 18 1761 -2.389 20 5 1811 1.438 21 1861 -1.585 24 3 1911 1.081 24 1961 -.523 23 1712 .596 18 1762 -.085 20 1812 .551 21 1862 1.009 24 1912 .511 24 1962 .188 23 1713 .257 18 1763 -1.622 20 1813 -1.424 21 2 1863 -.175 24 1913 .070 24 1<< 1963 -.281 23 1714 .325 18 1764 1.149 20 1814 .376 21 1864 -.813 24 9 1914 1.460 24 1964 -.485 23 1715 -.840 18 1765 -.228 20 1815 .211 21 1865 .294 24 1915 .550 24 1965 .217 23 1716 -.688 18 1766 .579 20 1816 1.045 21 1866 .895 24 1916 1.064 24 1966 .008 23 1717 -.139 18 1767 .048 20 1817 .901 21 1867 .851 24 1917 .702 24 1967 -.454 23 1 1718 .382 18 1768 .777 20 1818 -.691 21 1868 1.370 24 1918 -.916 24 1968 .702 23 1719 .480 18 1769 .774 20 1819 .955 21 1869 1.015 24 1919 -.225 24 1969 1.356 23 1720 1.365 18 1770 -.424 20 1 1820 -2.089 23 7 1870 -.205 24 1920 .601 24 1970 -.529 23 1721 .039 18 1771 1.185 19 1821 .777 23 1871 -1.266 24 4 1921 -.317 23 1971 -1.493 23 1722 -2.266 18 9 1772 .331 19 1822 -1.323 23 1872 .971 24 1922 .581 23 1972 .266 23 1723 .737 18 1773 -1.992 19 2 1823 -.834 23 1873 -.308 24 1923 .524 23 1973 .778 23 1724 .794 18 1774 -.326 19 1824 -.238 23 1874 .521 24 1924 -2.047 23 1974 -.725 23 1725 .595 18 1775 1.215 19 1825 .908 23 1875 .901 24 1925 -1.901 23 1975 1.203 23 1726 1.015 18 1776 -.346 19 1826 .856 23 1876 .220 24 1926 .583 23 1976 .847 23 1727 .982 18 1777 .552 19 1827 .009 23 1877 .277 24 1927 .115 23 1977 -3.643 23 7 1728 -.610 20 1778 -.012 19 1828 1.186 23 1878 .241 24 1928 .930 23 1978 1.104 23 1729 -2.447 20 9 1779 .235 19 1829 -1.640 23 1879 -1.190 24 5 1929 -.948 23 1979 .507 23 1730 .969 20 1780 -2.274 19 2 1830 -.376 23 1880 -.094 24 1930 -.236 23 1980 -.070 23 1731 .375 20 1781 .287 19 1831 -1.290 22 1881 -.567 24 1931 -1.083 23 2 1981 .469 22 1732 .282 20 1782 -.193 19 1832 .731 22 1882 -1.854 24 11 1932 .694 23 1982 .265 22 1733 .257 20 1<< 1783 -.187 19 2<< 1833 .844 22 1883 -1.842 24 14 1933 -.345 23 1983 .505 22 1734 1.114 20 1784 1.555 19 1834 -.138 22 2<< 1884 .503 24 1934 -1.574 23 2 1984 -.991 22 1735 -2.006 20 8 1785 -.651 19 1835 -.048 22 1885 .879 24 1935 .438 23 1985 .499 22 1736 -.693 20 1 1786 .630 19 1836 .684 22 1886 .452 24 1936 -2.134 23 1 1986 .203 22 1737 -.526 20 1787 1.064 19 1<< 1837 .539 22 1887 -.097 24 1937 .200 23 1987 1.000 22 1738 .996 20 1788 -1.738 19 1 1838 1.057 22 1888 .618 24 1938 1.196 23 1988 .554 22 1739 -.840 20 1 1789 -1.056 19 1839 .917 22 1889 .594 24 4<< 1939 -.973 23 1989 -.528 22 1740 -.241 20 1790 -.417 19 1840 .982 22 1890 1.083 24 1940 .329 23 1990 -2.553 21 1 1741 .805 20 1791 1.082 19 1841 -.870 22 1 1891 1.203 24 1941 1.272 23 1991 -1.336 21 1742 -1.439 20 1792 .563 19 1842 -.247 22 1892 1.149 24 1942 .793 23 1992 .843 21 1743 1.048 20 1793 1.381 19 1843 -.008 22 1893 .457 24 1943 .266 23 1993 .388 21 1744 .168 20 1794 .314 19 1844 .469 22 1894 -1.032 24 1 1944 .718 23 1994 -.564 21 1745 .346 20 1795 .482 19 1845 -1.337 22 3 1895 .695 24 1945 .472 23 1995 1.305 21 1746 .973 20 1796 -2.193 19 1 1846 .551 22 1896 -1.802 24 15 1946 -1.066 23 1996 -1.798 21 2 1747 1.225 20 1797 .170 19 1847 -2.858 22 12 1897 .845 24 1947 -.015 23 1997 .722 21 1748 -1.770 20 1 1798 -.178 19 1848 .514 22 1898 .556 24 1948 .398 23 1998 .573 21 1749 1.347 20 1799 .366 19 1849 .953 22 1899 -2.444 24 17 1949 1.212 23 1999 .409 21 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1561------B 1562------B 1563g 1564--b 1565----------H 1566--------C 1567g 1568---a 1569------B 1570--------C 1571----------F 1572-f 1573---a 1574--c 1575----@ 1576---a 1577-------B 1578---------D 1579--c 1580--------C 1581--------C 1582--------C 1583--d 1584j 1585j 1586----------D 1587---------D 1588---------D 1589----------E 1590----@ 1591--c 1592--c 1593------B 1594--------C 1595--c 1596---------D 1597-e 1598----@ 1599---------D PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600-e 1650-d 1700-----A 1750---a 1800--c 1850------A 1900---a 1950---a 1601--c 1651---------D 1701----------E 1751--c 1801---a 1851-----A 1901---a 1951--c 1602-----A 1652----@ 1702---------D 1752-----A 1802---------D 1852---------D 1902i 1952----------E 1603-d 1653-------B 1703k 1753----@ 1803---a 1853----------D 1903-----A 1953-d 1604---------D 1654n 1704---------D 1754----@ 1804---------D 1854--b 1904-f 1954------B 1605------A 1655------B 1705-------C 1755-e 1805h 1855------A 1905-----A 1955------B 1606----@ 1656--------C 1706----@ 1756------B 1806---a 1856----@ 1906-------B 1956j 1607---a 1657----@ 1707i 1757---a 1807---------D 1857---a 1907---------D 1957--------C 1608------B 1658-d 1708-----A 1758-------B 1808-e 1858-d 1908-----A 1958----------E 1609--------C 1659---a 1709g 1759-------C 1809----@ 1859---b 1909----@ 1959h 1610----------E 1660--------C 1710-----A 1760---------D 1810-----A 1860-d 1910--------C 1960-------C 1611---a 1661--------C 1711-----A 1761j 1811----------F 1861-f 1911---------D 1961--b 1612--c 1662---------D 1712-------B 1762----@ 1812-------B 1862---------D 1912-------B 1962-----A 1613-f 1663----A 1713-----A 1763f 1813-f 1863---a 1913----@ 1963---a 1614---a 1664-------B 1714-----A 1764----------E 1814------B 1864--c 1914----------F 1964--b 1615---a 1665------A 1715--c 1765---a 1815-----A 1865-----A 1915-------B 1965-----A 1616---a 1666----@ 1716--c 1766-------B 1816---------D 1866---------D 1916---------D 1966----@ 1617-----A 1667--b 1717---a 1767----@ 1817---------D 1867--------C 1917--------C 1967--b 1618-------C 1668--b 1718------B 1768--------C 1818--c 1868----------E 1918-d 1968--------C 1619---------D 1669-e 1719------B 1769--------C 1819---------D 1869---------D 1919---a 1969----------E 1620--d 1670n 1720----------E 1770---b 1820h 1870---a 1920-------B 1970--b 1621----------G 1671--b 1721----@ 1771----------E 1821--------C 1871-e 1921---a 1971-f 1622--------C 1672-----A 1722i 1772-----A 1822-e 1872---------D 1922-------B 1972-----A 1623----@ 1673--------C 1723--------C 1773h 1823--c 1873---a 1923-------B 1973--------C 1624----@ 1674----------F 1724--------C 1774---a 1824---a 1874-------B 1924h 1974--c 1625--------C 1675----@ 1725-------B 1775----------E 1825---------D 1875---------D 1925h 1975----------E 1626-d 1676--b 1726---------D 1776---a 1826--------C 1876-----A 1926-------B 1976--------C 1627---a 1677-------B 1727---------D 1777-------B 1827----@ 1877-----A 1927----@ 1977o 1628------B 1678--------C 1728--b 1778----@ 1828----------E 1878-----A 1928---------D 1978----------D 1629----@ 1679-----A 1729j 1779-----A 1829g 1879-e 1929-d 1979-------B 1630------B 1680------A 1730---------D 1780i 1830---b 1880----@ 1930---a 1980----@ 1631--c 1681---------D 1731------B 1781-----A 1831-e 1881--b 1931-d 1981------B 1632j 1682--------C 1732-----A 1782---a 1832--------C 1882g 1932--------C 1982-----A 1633---------D 1683----------D 1733-----A 1783---a 1833--------C 1883g 1933---a 1983-------B 1634------B 1684---b 1734----------D 1784----------F 1834---a 1884-------B 1934-f 1984-d 1635----------F 1685g 1735h 1785--c 1835----@ 1885--------D 1935------B 1985-------B 1636------A 1686l 1736--c 1786-------C 1836-------C 1886------B 1936i 1986-----A 1637-e 1687--------C 1737--b 1787---------D 1837-------B 1887----@ 1937-----A 1987---------D 1638-e 1688------A 1738---------D 1788g 1838---------D 1888-------B 1938----------E 1988-------B 1639--b 1689----@ 1739--c 1789-d 1839---------D 1889-------B 1939-d 1989--b 1640--------D 1690--c 1740---a 1790---b 1840---------D 1890---------D 1940-----A 1990j 1641----@ 1691----@ 1741--------C 1791---------D 1841--c 1891----------E 1941----------E 1991-e 1642----@ 1692-------B 1742-f 1792-------B 1842---a 1892----------E 1942--------C 1992--------C 1643---a 1693--c 1743---------D 1793----------F 1843----@ 1893------B 1943-----A 1993------B 1644------A 1694------A 1744-----A 1794-----A 1844------B 1894-d 1944--------C 1994--b 1645-----A 1695-------B 1745------A 1795------B 1845-e 1895--------C 1945------B 1995----------E 1646----@ 1696----@ 1746---------D 1796i 1846-------B 1896g 1946-d 1996g 1647---------D 1697---------D 1747----------E 1797-----A 1847k 1897--------C 1947----@ 1997--------C 1648-----A 1698h 1748g 1798---a 1848-------B 1898-------B 1948------B 1998-------B 1649--------C 1699------A 1749----------E 1799------A 1849---------D 1899j 1949----------E 1999------B PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 RVD01A 1661 1999 .83 .78 .85 .83 .76 .79 .74 .83 .94 .93 .88 .88 .89 2 RVD01B 1692 1999 .82 .85 .87 .82 .84 .78 .82 .91 .89 .80 .80 .85 3 RVD02A 1652 1999 .66 .71 .63 .31A .21B .70 .77 .65 .73 .62 .28B .25B .36B 4 RVD02B 1652 1999 .70 .52 .58 .62 .52 .64 .65 .66 .64 .65 .74 .80 .85 5 RVD03A 1611 1920 .81 .82 .86 .90 .93 .93 .94 .96 .95 .92 .89 .80 6 RVD03B 1611 1999 .72 .80 .78 .84 .93 .86 .85 .90 .92 .85 .86 .88 .82 .81 .82 7 RVD06A 1707 1999 .64 .69 .78 .83 .87 .90 .87 .82 .74 .78 .86 8 RVD06B 1707 1999 .51 .71 .82 .91 .89 .89 .89 .93 .80 .80 .92 9 RVD08A 1850 1999 .86 .84 .82 .88 .86 10 RVD16A 1728 1999 .84 .84 .89 .89 .87 .90 .92 .89 .82 .83 11 RVD16B 1728 1999 .78 .78 .82 .76 .75 .87 .92 .83 .78 .82 12 RVD17A 1566 1999 .72 .71 .76 .52 .44 .72 .85 .86 .89 .84 .77 .70 .68 .85 .84 .83 .86 13 RVD17B 1596 1999 .75 .78 .78 .65 .83 .90 .87 .88 .90 .87 .83 .79 .82 .88 .87 .90 14 RVD18A 1628 1999 .91 .91 .89 .92 .94 .81 .81 .91 .80 .78 .88 .74 .76 .86 15 RVD18B 1561 1770 .74 .75 .63 .83 .91 .91 .93 .86 16 RVD18C 1800 1999 .80 .63 .69 .85 .79 .79 .86 17 RVD19A 1800 1999 .79 .64 .66 .87 .84 .84 .88 18 RVD20A 1633 1980 .85 .87 .89 .95 .92 .91 .94 .83 .62 .55 .84 .90 .88 .89 19 RVD20B 1665 1989 .92 .91 .91 .91 .89 .89 .82 .76 .79 .85 .87 .86 .91 20 RVD21A 1853 1999 .92 .78 .75 .76 .80 21 RVD29A 1820 1999 .73 .80 .77 .83 .83 .83 .87 22 RVD29B 1820 1999 .58 .69 .75 .86 .83 .82 .83 23 RVD30A 1589 1999 .73 .75 .90 .91 .82 .86 .86 .79 .77 .82 .86 .89 .92 .85 .79 .83 24 RVD33B 1700 1999 .87 .73 .74 .90 .90 .91 .85 .86 .82 .80 .86 25 RVD34A 1600 1830 .03B .28A .56 .83 .83 .74 .67 .73 .69 26 RVD34B 1650 1999 .50 .83 .90 .91 .86 .87 .90 .90 .86 .76 .78 .80 .81 Av segment correlation .73 .73 .64 .74 .75 .81 .82 .80 .78 .84 .81 .79 .81 .84 .80 .79 .84 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== RVD01A 1661 to 1999 339 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .836) is: Lower 1847 -.008 1761 -.006 1722 -.006 1690 -.005 Higher 1670 .005 1686 .003 1729 .003 1899 .002 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1690 +3.5 SD; 1722 +3.2 SD; 1761 +3.5 SD; 1847 -7.3 SD; 1990 -5.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD01B 1692 to 1999 308 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .832) is: Lower 1722 -.008 1788 -.005 1761 -.005 1834 -.004 Higher 1990 .004 1956 .004 1899 .003 1780 .003 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1722 +3.5 SD; 1847 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD02A 1652 to 1999 348 years Series 3 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1725 1774 0 -.01 -.26 .04 .25 .06 .01 -.13 -.12 .11 -.05 .31* .00 .15 -.12 -.14 -.06 .10 -.02 .04 -.07 -.15 1750 1799 2 .07 -.09 .19 .00 .04 .05 -.04 -.32 .25 -.37 .21|-.18 .31*-.02 -.14 .19 -.22 .10 -.08 .13 -.04 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1900 1949 -6 -.02 -.16 .00 -.05 .30* .16 .02 .10 -.01 -.15 .28| .02 -.06 -.08 .00 -.12 -.12 -.05 -.09 .02 -.06 1925 1974 -3 -.06 .01 .00 -.28 .40 -.02 -.42 .47*-.20 -.21 .25|-.05 .01 .04 .02 .08 -.08 -.09 .13 .03 -.11 1950 1999 -3 .05 .02 -.02 -.19 .33 -.10 -.44 .59*-.19 -.26 .36| - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .566) is: Lower 1962 -.012 1787 -.011 1748 -.011 1773 -.009 Higher 1990 .008 1722 .008 1956 .007 1654 .007 1725 to 1774 segment: Lower 1748 -.073 1771 -.066 1773 -.059 1749 -.043 Higher 1729 .063 1735 .039 1763 .037 1742 .031 1750 to 1799 segment: Lower 1787 -.073 1773 -.060 1771 -.058 1788 -.046 Higher 1780 .083 1796 .061 1763 .037 1784 .037 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1917 -.038 1946 -.032 1942 -.029 1915 -.023 Higher 1936 .066 1902 .052 1934 .049 1931 .020 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1962 -.067 1973 -.038 1969 -.036 1946 -.028 Higher 1956 .062 1936 .055 1934 .045 1959 .038 1950 to 1999 segment: Lower 1962 -.052 1973 -.029 1969 -.029 1991 -.016 Higher 1990 .089 1956 .036 1996 .035 1959 .022 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1787 1788 4.0 SD [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1722 -2.266 18 9 1780 -2.274 19 2 1783 -.187 19 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1787 1.064 19 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1931 -1.083 23 2 1934 -1.574 23 2 1936 -2.134 23 1 1990 -2.553 21 1 1996 -1.798 21 2 [E] Outliers 16 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1748 +5.8 SD; 1762 +3.3 SD; 1771 -5.0 SD; 1773 +5.0 SD; 1787 -6.0 SD; 1788 +4.5 SD; 1831 +3.1 SD; 1865 +3.2 SD; 1879 -5.1 SD; 1917 -4.6 SD; 1946 +3.6 SD; 1962 -7.0 SD; 1963 +3.4 SD; 1973 -4.6 SD; 1977 +3.5 SD; 1990 -7.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD02B 1652 to 1999 348 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .724) is: Lower 1783 -.014 1707 -.009 1780 -.005 1709 -.005 Higher 1977 .009 1899 .005 1847 .005 1761 .005 [D] 17 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1735 -2.006 20 8 1739 -.840 20 1 1748 -1.770 20 1 1761 -2.389 20 5 1783 -.187 19 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1813 -1.424 21 2 1820 -2.089 23 7 1847 -2.858 22 12 1854 -.479 24 5 1858 -.908 24 5 1864 -.813 24 9 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1707 +4.7 SD; 1709 +3.6 SD; 1773 +3.2 SD; 1774 +3.0 SD; 1780 +3.5 SD; 1783 -7.7 SD; 1924 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD03A 1611 to 1920 310 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .877) is: Lower 1620 -.008 1889 -.006 1645 -.004 1911 -.003 Higher 1847 .003 1703 .003 1686 .003 1632 .002 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.006 20 8 1847 -2.858 22 12 1864 -.813 24 9 1883 -1.842 24 14 1889 .594 24 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1620 -5.4 SD; 1654 -6.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD03B 1611 to 1999 389 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .834) is: Lower 1773 -.010 1620 -.007 1967 -.006 1924 -.002 Higher 1977 .006 1654 .005 1847 .003 1703 .003 [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1654 -3.400 12 2 1735 -2.006 20 8 1773 -1.992 19 2 1847 -2.858 22 12 1871 -1.266 24 4 1931 -1.083 23 2 1934 -1.574 23 2 1953 -.947 23 1 1956 -2.522 23 1 1967 -.454 23 1 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1620 -5.4 SD; 1773 -8.3 SD; 1967 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD06A 1707 to 1999 293 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .811) is: Lower 1889 -.008 1929 -.007 1925 -.006 1924 -.005 Higher 1977 .006 1990 .005 1899 .005 1847 .004 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.447 20 9 1820 -2.089 23 7 1847 -2.858 22 12 1871 -1.266 24 4 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1889 .594 24 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1716 +3.0 SD; 1796 -4.7 SD; 1889 -4.6 SD; 1925 +3.2 SD; 1929 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD06B 1707 to 1999 293 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .827) is: Lower 1929 -.016 1889 -.007 1716 -.007 1767 -.006 Higher 1956 .004 1729 .004 1899 .004 1990 .003 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1847 -2.858 22 12 1864 -.813 24 9 1883 -1.842 24 14 1889 .594 24 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1716 +3.7 SD; 1847 -4.7 SD; 1929 -7.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD08A 1850 to 1999 150 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .863) is: Lower 1864 -.005 1923 -.005 1990 -.004 1854 -.004 Higher 1977 .016 1899 .006 1956 .006 1936 .005 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1864 -.813 24 9 1883 -1.842 24 14 1899 -2.444 24 17 1977 -3.643 23 7 1996 -1.798 21 2 =================================================================================================================================== RVD16A 1728 to 1999 272 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .874) is: Lower 1966 -.007 1961 -.002 1758 -.002 1933 -.002 Higher 1899 .003 1956 .003 1761 .003 1780 .002 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1847 -2.858 22 12 1861 -1.585 24 3 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 -5.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD16B 1728 to 1999 272 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .812) is: Lower 1847 -.013 1984 -.007 1953 -.007 1751 -.006 Higher 1899 .004 1729 .004 1977 .004 1990 .004 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1813 -1.424 21 2 1820 -2.089 23 7 1845 -1.337 22 3 1854 -.479 24 5 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 8 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1748 -5.6 SD; 1751 +3.6 SD; 1761 -4.8 SD; 1808 +3.0 SD; 1847 +4.8 SD; 1929 +3.2 SD; 1953 +3.5 SD; 1984 +3.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD17A 1566 to 1999 434 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .744) is: Lower 1648 -.039 1654 -.007 1650 -.006 1871 -.006 Higher 1977 .009 1670 .007 1847 .005 1707 .003 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1647 1648 -4.6 SD 1648 1649 4.4 SD [D] 18 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1626 -.931 7 3 1648 .278 9 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1670 -3.397 14 2 1707 -2.168 18 3 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1733 .257 20 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1735 -2.006 20 8 1761 -2.389 20 5 1820 -2.089 23 7 1847 -2.858 22 12 1854 -.479 24 5 1879 -1.190 24 5 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 12 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1620 +3.5 SD; 1626 -4.9 SD; 1648-12.5 SD; 1650 +4.2 SD; 1652 +3.4 SD; 1654 +4.7 SD; 1658 -6.1 SD; 1671 -4.5 SD; 1684 +3.0 SD; 1748 +3.3 SD; 1805 +3.4 SD; 1871 +4.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD17B 1596 to 1999 404 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .800) is: Lower 1665 -.022 1913 -.020 1626 -.009 1748 -.004 Higher 1670 .006 1654 .006 1977 .005 1847 .004 [D] 13 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1626 -.931 7 3 1654 -3.400 12 2 1665 .347 14 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1670 -3.397 14 2 1729 -2.447 20 9 1861 -1.585 24 3 1864 -.813 24 9 1879 -1.190 24 5 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1904 -1.605 24 1 1913 .070 24 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 8 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1617 +4.1 SD; 1626 -6.0 SD; 1654 -5.3 SD; 1665 -8.3 SD; 1676 +3.0 SD; 1684 +3.0 SD; 1748 +3.5 SD; 1913 -8.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD18A 1628 to 1999 372 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .869) is: Lower 1936 -.006 1795 -.005 1959 -.003 1790 -.003 Higher 1670 .004 1686 .003 1977 .003 1847 .003 [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1780 -2.274 19 2 1796 -2.193 19 1 1847 -2.858 22 12 1858 -.908 24 5 1864 -.813 24 9 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1902 -2.242 24 3 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1654 -6.5 SD; 1936 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD18B 1561 to 1770 210 years Series 15 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1561 to 1565 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .811) is: Lower 1626 -.035 1620 -.008 1601 -.006 1632 -.006 Higher 1654 .011 1670 .010 1686 .008 1761 .006 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1626 -.931 7 3 1686 -2.926 14 2 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1735 -2.006 20 8 1761 -2.389 20 5 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1620 +3.0 SD; 1626 -8.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD18C 1800 to 1999 200 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .771) is: Lower 1834 -.016 1854 -.011 1841 -.009 1847 -.007 Higher 1977 .019 1902 .006 1956 .005 1882 .005 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1834 -.138 22 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1841 -.870 22 1 1854 -.479 24 5 1858 -.908 24 5 1864 -.813 24 9 1879 -1.190 24 5 1882 -1.854 24 11 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1902 -2.242 24 3 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1834 -6.4 SD; 1841 -6.0 SD; 1847 +3.2 SD; 1854 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD19A 1800 to 1999 200 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .833) is: Lower 1834 -.010 1841 -.008 1852 -.007 1849 -.007 Higher 1977 .014 1959 .004 1902 .004 1899 .004 [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -2.089 23 7 1834 -.138 22 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1845 -1.337 22 3 1864 -.813 24 9 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1834 -4.6 SD; 1841 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD20A 1633 to 1980 348 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .867) is: Lower 1847 -.010 1871 -.009 1854 -.003 1853 -.003 Higher 1654 .004 1670 .004 1703 .003 1686 .003 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -2.089 23 7 1854 -.479 24 5 1858 -.908 24 5 1879 -1.190 24 5 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 1894 -1.032 24 1 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1902 -2.242 24 3 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 +4.5 SD; 1871 +4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD20B 1665 to 1989 325 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .875) is: Lower 1847 -.007 1883 -.006 1853 -.004 1796 -.004 Higher 1977 .006 1670 .004 1956 .002 1722 .002 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 +3.7 SD; 1883 +3.5 SD; 1936 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD21A 1853 to 1999 147 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .818) is: Lower 1919 -.028 1959 -.010 1925 -.010 1945 -.003 Higher 1977 .008 1924 .005 1882 .004 1883 .004 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1861 -1.585 24 3 1882 -1.854 24 11 1883 -1.842 24 14 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1919 -5.9 SD; 1959 +3.2 SD; 1990 -4.5 SD; 1991 -6.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD29A 1820 to 1999 180 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .814) is: Lower 1820 -.008 1882 -.008 1821 -.006 1928 -.005 Higher 1977 .011 1899 .008 1956 .006 1847 .006 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 -5.3 SD; 1991 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD29B 1820 to 1999 180 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .768) is: Lower 1821 -.010 1820 -.007 1847 -.006 1822 -.004 Higher 1956 .008 1899 .008 1977 .006 1902 .005 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1847 -2.858 22 12 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 -7.8 SD; 1871 -4.7 SD; 1959 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD30A 1589 to 1999 411 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .837) is: Lower 1847 -.005 1956 -.003 1808 -.003 1789 -.003 Higher 1670 .005 1654 .004 1686 .004 1977 .004 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1686 -2.926 14 2 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1847 -2.858 22 12 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1599 +3.3 SD; 1627 +3.2 SD; 1847 -7.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD33B 1700 to 1999 300 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .843) is: Lower 1845 -.007 1771 -.007 1773 -.005 1770 -.005 Higher 1977 .007 1847 .004 1761 .003 1722 .003 [D] 14 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1707 -2.168 18 3 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1735 -2.006 20 8 1761 -2.389 20 5 1770 -.424 20 1 1788 -1.738 19 1 1820 -2.089 23 7 1845 -1.337 22 3 1847 -2.858 22 12 1871 -1.266 24 4 1879 -1.190 24 5 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1770 -5.5 SD; 1845 -5.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD34A 1600 to 1830 231 years Series 25 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1600 1649 5 -.16 .09 .02 .10 .23 -.17 .14 -.03 .11 .09 .03|-.28 -.02 .03 .00 .27*-.03 -.04 -.20 -.03 -.07 1625 1674 0 .02 .05 .08 .05 .00 -.08 -.22 -.24 .19 .07 .28*-.28 .06 .12 .06 .09 .01 -.01 -.09 .00 -.11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .587) is: Lower 1634 -.013 1613 -.013 1654 -.010 1640 -.007 Higher 1707 .011 1780 .010 1722 .008 1773 .008 1600 to 1649 segment: Lower 1613 -.050 1634 -.046 1640 -.028 1637 -.022 Higher 1632 .090 1635 .036 1621 .036 1625 .023 1625 to 1674 segment: Lower 1634 -.062 1640 -.032 1664 -.027 1652 -.027 Higher 1670 .058 1632 .050 1674 .035 1635 .022 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1690 -.735 14 1 1707 -2.168 18 3 1722 -2.266 18 9 1729 -2.447 20 9 1735 -2.006 20 8 1736 -.693 20 1 1773 -1.992 19 2 [E] Outliers 10 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1600 +3.1 SD; 1613 +5.2 SD; 1614 +3.3 SD; 1637 +3.3 SD; 1642 +3.2 SD; 1654 +4.8 SD; 1670 +4.1 SD; 1690 -4.8 SD; 1707 -4.9 SD; 1773 -6.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== RVD34B 1650 to 1999 350 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .797) is: Lower 1654 -.024 1659 -.009 1664 -.007 1924 -.006 Higher 1977 .009 1847 .004 1722 .003 1707 .003 [D] 13 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1722 -2.266 18 9 1735 -2.006 20 8 1761 -2.389 20 5 1847 -2.858 22 12 1858 -.908 24 5 1864 -.813 24 9 1871 -1.266 24 4 1883 -1.842 24 14 1889 .594 24 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1896 -1.802 24 15 1899 -2.444 24 17 1959 -2.036 23 1 1977 -3.643 23 7 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1654 +6.9 SD; 1659 -4.7 SD; 1670 +3.7 SD; 1761 -5.8 SD; 1924 +3.1 SD; 1977 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Round Valley Draw 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 RVD01A 1661 1999 339 13 0 .836 .82 2.25 .332 .450 .375 2.45 .350 .034 1 2 RVD01B 1692 1999 308 12 0 .832 .66 1.72 .279 .390 .413 2.50 .416 .014 1 3 RVD02A 1652 1999 348 13 5 .566 .39 1.08 .197 .533 .435 2.54 .319 -.044 2 4 RVD02B 1652 1999 348 13 0 .724 .35 1.20 .227 .689 .559 2.64 .479 -.020 1 5 RVD03A 1611 1920 310 12 0 .877 .39 1.15 .182 .250 .528 2.55 .346 -.030 1 6 RVD03B 1611 1999 389 15 0 .834 .34 1.00 .180 .495 .506 2.50 .344 -.040 1 7 RVD06A 1707 1999 293 11 0 .811 .38 .86 .175 .244 .535 2.68 .446 -.023 1 8 RVD06B 1707 1999 293 11 0 .827 .44 1.12 .216 .383 .513 2.54 .419 -.040 1 9 RVD08A 1850 1999 150 5 0 .863 .26 .51 .100 .198 .475 2.48 .424 -.029 1 10 RVD16A 1728 1999 272 10 0 .874 .55 1.57 .303 .579 .476 2.58 .394 -.036 1 11 RVD16B 1728 1999 272 10 0 .812 .49 1.89 .318 .595 .551 2.68 .459 -.032 1 12 RVD17A 1566 1999 434 17 0 .744 .43 1.48 .247 .545 .542 2.48 .308 -.010 1 13 RVD17B 1596 1999 404 16 0 .800 .55 3.97 .430 .678 .500 2.59 .365 -.010 1 14 RVD18A 1628 1999 372 14 0 .869 .42 1.28 .226 .507 .521 2.45 .346 -.004 1 15 RVD18B 1561 1770 210 8 0 .811 .50 1.46 .294 .602 .486 2.56 .381 .010 1 16 RVD18C 1800 1999 200 7 0 .771 .35 .77 .161 .353 .543 2.58 .437 -.054 1 17 RVD19A 1800 1999 200 7 0 .833 .53 1.36 .294 .364 .638 2.53 .469 -.040 1 18 RVD20A 1633 1980 348 14 0 .867 .36 .97 .180 .362 .534 2.59 .449 -.002 1 19 RVD20B 1665 1989 325 13 0 .875 .50 1.62 .261 .476 .471 2.60 .446 -.022 1 20 RVD21A 1853 1999 147 5 0 .818 .56 1.13 .239 .608 .360 2.57 .442 .041 1 21 RVD29A 1820 1999 180 7 0 .814 .78 1.94 .358 .725 .333 2.48 .337 -.059 1 22 RVD29B 1820 1999 180 7 0 .768 .64 1.45 .232 .469 .352 2.50 .319 -.020 1 23 RVD30A 1589 1999 411 16 0 .837 .43 .98 .168 .159 .444 2.54 .320 -.018 1 24 RVD33B 1700 1999 300 11 0 .843 .33 .76 .162 .085 .637 2.58 .446 -.023 1 25 RVD34A 1600 1830 231 9 2 .587 .19 .38 .084 .181 .534 2.57 .485 -.013 5 26 RVD34B 1650 1999 350 13 0 .797 .27 .65 .129 .185 .569 2.63 .388 .001 2 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 7614 289 7 .803 .45 3.97 .231 .427 .499 2.68 .392 -.017 - = [ COFECHA ROUNDCOF ] = -