***** Note: 1901 value for series 11, core SK106A, corrected from 332 to 070 4/17/2004 ***** [] Dendrochronology Program Library Run SKUT1 Program COF 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Skutumpah Road 1 File of DATED series: ut521.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: SK1 1 Skutumpah Road #1 PIED Text in file: SK1 2 Utah Pinyon Pine 1800M 3730-11204 __ 1590 1998 Text in file: SK1 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1590 to 2000 411 years Continuous time span is 1590 to 2000 411 years Portion with two or more series is 1624 to 2000 377 years >> SK105A 1747 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is 1.133 >> SK106A 1682 absent in 1 of 2 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.095 >> SK106A 1751 absent in 1 of 13 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.125 >> SK106A 1873 absent in 1 of 20 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.087 >> SK108B 1723 absent in 1 of 10 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .188 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 21 *C* *O* Master series 1590 2000 411 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5097 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5063 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .793 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .381 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 0 *A* *** Mean length of series 242.7 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) SK101A 3 absent rings: 1956 1974 1977 SK101B 2 absent rings: 1761 1763 SK103A 1 absent rings: 1990 SK103B 3 absent rings: 1899 1984 1996 SK104B 2 absent rings: 1896 1899 SK105A 4 absent rings: 1747 1761 1883 1996 SK106A 14 absent rings: 1638 1670 1676 1682 1751 1773 1820 1873 1883 1899 1953 1956 1977 1996 SK108A 2 absent rings: 1729 1773 SK108B 6 absent rings: 1723 1773 1847 1864 1883 1896 SK109B 2 absent rings: 1864 1977 SK110A 2 absent rings: 1977 1990 SK110B 5 absent rings: 1899 1956 1974 1977 1990 46 absent rings .902% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================> . SK101A 1 1739 1980 242 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================> . . . SK101B 2 1715 1883 169 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> SK102A 3 1811 2000 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> SK102B 4 1938 2000 63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================> SK103A 5 1707 2000 294 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================> SK103B 6 1707 2000 294 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> SK104A 7 1731 2000 270 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> SK104B 8 1734 2000 267 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> SK105A 9 1720 2000 281 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> SK105B 10 1720 2000 281 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================================> SK106A 11 1590 2000 411 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> SK107A 12 1804 2000 197 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> SK107B 13 1804 2000 197 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================> . . SK108A 14 1711 1930 220 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================> . . SK108B 15 1711 1930 220 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================> SK109A 16 1705 2000 296 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================================> SK109B 17 1624 2000 377 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> SK110A 18 1794 2000 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> SK110B 19 1794 2000 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> SK111A 20 1790 2000 211 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================> SK111B 21 1798 2000 203 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1600 -5.674 1 1650 .575 2 1601 -2.071 1 1651 .471 2 1602 -.616 1 1652 -.633 2 1603 .463 1 1653 -1.053 2 1604 .786 1 1654 -3.517 2 1605 .533 1 1655 .499 2 1606 1.055 1 1656 .456 2 1607 .777 1 1657 -.172 2 1608 .782 1 1658 -.005 2 1609 1.370 1 1659 .194 2 1610 1.003 1 1660 .111 2 1611 .178 1 1661 .994 2 1612 .335 1 1662 .709 2 1613 -.781 1 1663 .781 2 1614 .900 1 1664 .370 2 1615 .917 1 1665 .751 2 1616 -.035 1 1666 -.842 2 1617 .159 1 1667 -.222 2 1618 .124 1 1668 -.723 2 1619 -1.282 1 1669 -.224 2 1620 .416 1 1670 -4.273 2 1 1621 1.194 1 1671 -.616 2 1622 .773 1 1672 .708 2 1623 .296 1 1673 1.002 2 1624 -.534 2 1674 1.126 2 1625 .337 2 1675 .303 2 1626 -3.231 2 1676 -.661 2 1 1627 -.387 2 1677 .618 2 1628 .236 2 1678 .633 2 1629 .610 2 1679 .343 2 1630 -.241 2 1680 1.095 2 1631 -.224 2 1681 1.016 2 1632 .084 2 1682 -.095 2 1<< 1633 -.041 2 1683 .977 2 1634 -.035 2 1684 .499 2 1635 .910 2 1685 -.731 2 1636 .174 2 1686 -2.752 2 1637 -.137 2 1687 1.039 2 1638 -3.062 2 1 1688 .747 2 1639 .053 2 1689 -.005 2 1590 -.067 1 1640 1.134 2 1690 -.370 2 1591 .907 1 1641 .501 2 1691 -.648 2 1592 -.403 1 1642 .774 2 1692 -.172 2 1593 -1.387 1 1643 .615 2 1693 -.778 2 1594 1.339 1 1644 1.049 2 1694 .112 2 1595 .023 1 1645 1.080 2 1695 -.844 2 1596 .678 1 1646 -.979 2 1696 -1.175 2 1597 -.001 1 1647 .981 2 1697 .575 2 1598 .876 1 1648 -1.009 2 1698 -.752 2 1599 -.022 1 1649 .627 2 1699 .999 2 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .793 2 1750 -.097 13 1800 -.319 17 1850 .533 20 1900 -.737 19 1950 -.547 18 1701 .635 2 1751 -.125 13 1<< 1801 -.228 17 1851 .547 20 1901 .684 19 1951 -.859 18 1702 1.007 2 1752 -.140 13 1802 .548 17 1852 1.058 20 1902 -1.371 19 1952 .619 18 1703 -1.663 2 1753 .254 13 1803 -1.164 17 1853 1.184 20 1903 .012 19 1953 -.780 18 1 1704 .817 2 1754 -.219 13 1804 .464 19 1854 .444 20 1904 -1.859 19 1954 .678 18 1705 1.408 3 1755 -.765 13 1805 -.261 19 1855 .802 20 1905 .084 19 1955 .021 18 1706 .741 3 1756 -.311 13 1806 .175 19 1856 -.288 20 1906 .782 19 1956 -1.927 18 3 1707 -.380 5 1757 -.439 13 1807 .219 19 1857 -1.303 20 1907 .986 19 1957 .318 18 1708 -.235 5 1758 .316 13 1808 -1.144 19 1858 -1.028 20 1908 .829 19 1958 .727 18 1709 -1.661 5 1759 .257 13 1809 -.599 19 1859 -.640 20 1909 .412 19 1959 -1.682 18 1710 .304 5 1760 .209 13 1810 .140 19 1860 -.774 20 1910 .974 19 1960 .142 18 1711 .963 7 1761 -1.320 13 2 1811 1.119 20 1861 -1.413 20 1911 1.111 19 1961 -.277 18 1712 .417 7 1762 -.632 13 1812 -.106 20 1862 .780 20 1912 .271 19 1962 .971 18 1713 .441 7 1763 -1.514 13 1 1813 -1.170 20 1863 .219 20 1913 -.076 19 1963 -.814 18 1714 -.020 7 1764 .259 13 1814 .755 20 1864 -1.669 20 2 1914 .747 19 1964 -.609 18 1715 -.993 8 1765 .183 13 1815 .277 20 1865 .145 20 1915 .018 19 1965 .325 18 1716 -.802 8 1766 1.232 13 1816 1.572 20 1866 1.022 20 1916 .646 19 1966 -.027 18 1717 -.640 8 1767 .990 13 1817 .891 20 1867 .625 20 1917 .294 19 1967 .683 18 1718 .746 8 1768 1.043 13 1818 -.150 20 1868 1.290 20 1918 -.002 19 1968 .868 18 1719 .796 8 1769 1.003 13 1819 .823 20 1869 1.010 20 1919 -.703 19 1969 1.230 18 1720 1.129 10 1770 .241 13 1820 -2.002 20 1 1870 -.189 20 1920 .571 19 1970 -.113 18 1721 -.797 10 1771 .782 13 1821 -.491 20 1871 -1.461 20 1921 .395 19 1971 .308 18 1722 -1.116 10 1772 .618 13 1822 -1.265 20 1872 .681 20 1922 .281 19 1972 -.227 18 1723 .188 10 1<< 1773 -2.658 13 3 1823 -.071 20 1873 -.087 20 1<< 1923 .251 19 1973 .574 18 1724 .738 10 1774 -.649 13 1824 -1.633 20 1874 .820 20 1924 -1.844 19 1974 -.751 18 2 1725 .785 10 1775 .789 13 1825 .101 20 1875 .940 20 1925 -2.235 19 1975 .621 18 1726 1.092 10 1776 .467 13 1826 .378 20 1876 -.265 20 1926 -.487 19 1976 .392 18 1727 .661 10 1777 -.059 13 1827 -.150 20 1877 .004 20 1927 -.413 19 1977 -5.384 18 5 1728 .145 10 1778 .116 13 1828 1.220 20 1878 .059 20 1928 .859 19 1978 .175 18 1729 -2.237 10 1 1779 -.092 13 1829 -.632 20 1879 -.274 20 1929 -1.495 19 1979 .373 18 1730 -.574 10 1780 -1.083 13 1830 -.250 20 1880 -.220 20 1930 -.239 19 1980 .927 18 1731 .611 11 1781 .100 13 1831 -.745 20 1881 -1.049 20 1931 -.168 17 1981 .634 17 1732 .731 11 1782 -.683 13 1832 .822 20 1882 -1.366 20 1932 .675 17 1982 -.092 17 1733 .267 11 1783 .245 13 1833 .604 20 1883 -2.503 20 3 1933 .181 17 1983 .806 17 1734 .864 12 1784 1.088 13 1834 -.021 20 1884 .125 19 1934 -.371 17 1984 -.427 17 1 1735 -1.903 12 1785 -1.062 13 1835 .924 20 1885 1.127 19 1935 .649 17 1985 .337 17 1736 -1.219 12 1786 .266 13 1836 .348 20 1886 .685 19 1936 -.885 17 1986 .027 17 1737 -.415 12 1787 1.211 13 1837 .184 20 1887 .108 19 1937 -.713 17 1987 -.057 17 1738 .853 12 1788 -1.029 13 1838 .366 20 1888 .382 19 1938 .054 18 1988 .398 17 1739 -.529 13 1789 -1.887 13 1839 .605 20 1889 1.037 19 1939 -.544 18 1989 -.094 17 1740 -.552 13 1790 -1.618 14 1840 1.186 20 1890 1.424 19 1940 .071 18 1990 -1.679 17 3 1741 .594 13 1791 .297 14 1841 -.539 20 1891 .959 19 1941 .778 18 1991 -.760 17 1742 -1.289 13 1792 .931 14 1842 -.468 20 1892 .863 19 1942 .891 18 1992 .546 17 1743 .721 13 1793 .975 14 1843 -.080 20 1893 .321 19 1943 1.097 18 1993 .539 17 1744 .863 13 1794 .169 16 1844 .628 20 1894 -.956 19 1944 .871 18 1994 .267 17 1745 .929 13 1795 .947 16 1845 -.819 20 1895 .055 19 1945 .427 18 1995 1.399 17 1746 1.108 13 1796 -.230 16 1846 -.113 20 1896 -2.112 19 2 1946 -.998 18 1996 -1.627 17 3 1747 1.133 13 1<< 1797 .764 16 1847 -3.683 20 1 1897 .350 19 1947 .329 18 1997 .402 17 1748 -1.207 13 1798 .392 17 1848 .679 20 1898 .323 19 1948 .195 18 1998 .525 17 1749 .227 13 1799 .720 17 1849 .677 20 1899 -2.846 19 4 1949 .684 18 1999 .822 17 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 2000 -.972 17 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1590----@ 1591---------D 1592---b 1593-f 1594----------E 1595----@ 1596-------C 1597----@ 1598---------D 1599----@ PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600w 1650-------B 1700--------C 1750----@ 1800---a 1850-------B 1900--c 1950--b 1601h 1651------B 1701-------C 1751---@ 1801---a 1851-------B 1901-------C 1951-c 1602--b 1652--c 1702---------D 1752---a 1802-------B 1852----------D 1902-e 1952-------B 1603------B 1653-d 1703g 1753-----A 1803-e 1853----------E 1903----@ 1953--c 1604--------C 1654n 1704--------C 1754---a 1804------B 1854------B 1904g 1954-------C 1605-------B 1655-------B 1705----------F 1755--c 1805---a 1855--------C 1905----@ 1955----@ 1606----------D 1656------B 1706--------C 1756---a 1806-----A 1856---a 1906--------C 1956h 1607--------C 1657---a 1707---b 1757--b 1807-----A 1857-e 1907---------D 1957------A 1608--------C 1658----@ 1708---a 1758------A 1808-e 1858-d 1908--------C 1958--------C 1609----------E 1659-----A 1709g 1759-----A 1809--b 1859--c 1909------B 1959g 1610---------D 1660-----@ 1710------A 1760-----A 1810-----A 1860--c 1910---------D 1960-----A 1611-----A 1661---------D 1711---------D 1761-e 1811----------D 1861-f 1911----------D 1961---a 1612------A 1662--------C 1712------B 1762--c 1812----@ 1862--------C 1912-----A 1962---------D 1613--c 1663--------C 1713------B 1763f 1813-e 1863-----A 1913----@ 1963-c 1614---------D 1664------A 1714----@ 1764-----A 1814--------C 1864g 1914--------C 1964--b 1615---------D 1665--------C 1715-d 1765-----A 1815-----A 1865-----A 1915----@ 1965------A 1616----@ 1666-c 1716-c 1766----------E 1816----------F 1866---------D 1916-------C 1966----@ 1617-----A 1667---a 1717--c 1767---------D 1817---------D 1867-------C 1917------A 1967-------C 1618-----@ 1668--c 1718--------C 1768----------D 1818---a 1868----------E 1918----@ 1968---------C 1619-e 1669---a 1719--------C 1769---------D 1819--------C 1869---------D 1919--c 1969----------E 1620------B 1670q 1720----------E 1770-----A 1820h 1870---a 1920-------B 1970---@ 1621----------E 1671--b 1721--c 1771--------C 1821--b 1871f 1921------B 1971------A 1622--------C 1672--------C 1722-d 1772-------B 1822-e 1872-------C 1922-----A 1972---a 1623------A 1673---------D 1723-----A 1773k 1823----@ 1873----@ 1923-----A 1973-------B 1624--b 1674----------E 1724--------C 1774--c 1824g 1874--------C 1924g 1974--c 1625------A 1675------A 1725--------C 1775--------C 1825----@ 1875---------D 1925i 1975-------B 1626m 1676--c 1726----------D 1776------B 1826------B 1876---a 1926--b 1976------B 1627---b 1677-------B 1727-------C 1777----@ 1827---a 1877----@ 1927---b 1977v 1628-----A 1678-------C 1728-----A 1778-----@ 1828----------E 1878----@ 1928---------C 1978-----A 1629-------B 1679------A 1729i 1779----@ 1829--c 1879---a 1929f 1979------A 1630---a 1680----------D 1730--b 1780-d 1830---a 1880---a 1930---a 1980---------D 1631---a 1681---------D 1731-------B 1781----@ 1831--c 1881-d 1931---a 1981-------C 1632----@ 1682----@ 1732--------C 1782--c 1832--------C 1882-e 1932-------C 1982----@ 1633----@ 1683---------D 1733-----A 1783-----A 1833-------B 1883j 1933-----A 1983--------C 1634----@ 1684-------B 1734---------C 1784----------D 1834----@ 1884-----A 1934---a 1984--b 1635---------D 1685--c 1735h 1785-d 1835---------D 1885----------E 1935-------C 1985------A 1636-----A 1686k 1736-e 1786-----A 1836------A 1886-------C 1936-d 1986----@ 1637---a 1687----------D 1737--b 1787----------E 1837-----A 1887-----@ 1937--c 1987----@ 1638l 1688--------C 1738---------C 1788-d 1838------A 1888------B 1938----@ 1988------B 1639----@ 1689----@ 1739--b 1789h 1839-------B 1889----------D 1939--b 1989----@ 1640----------E 1690---a 1740--b 1790f 1840----------E 1890----------F 1940----@ 1990g 1641-------B 1691--c 1741-------B 1791------A 1841--b 1891---------D 1941--------C 1991--c 1642--------C 1692---a 1742-e 1792---------D 1842--b 1892---------C 1942---------D 1992-------B 1643-------B 1693--c 1743--------C 1793---------D 1843----@ 1893------A 1943----------D 1993-------B 1644----------D 1694-----@ 1744---------C 1794-----A 1844-------C 1894-d 1944---------C 1994-----A 1645----------D 1695-c 1745---------D 1795---------D 1845-c 1895----@ 1945------B 1995----------F 1646-d 1696-e 1746----------D 1796---a 1846---@ 1896h 1946-d 1996g 1647---------D 1697-------B 1747----------E 1797--------C 1847o 1897------A 1947------A 1997------B 1648-d 1698--c 1748-e 1798------B 1848-------C 1898------A 1948-----A 1998-------B 1649-------C 1699---------D 1749-----A 1799--------C 1849-------C 1899k 1949-------C 1999--------C PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 2000-d PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SK101A 1739 1980 .69 .69 .83 .76 .74 .86 .84 .71 .79 .79 2 SK101B 1715 1883 .75 .70 .60 .70 .70 .74 .74 3 SK102A 1811 2000 .49 .61 .78 .74 .61 .71 .85 .85 4 SK102B 1938 2000 .81 .78 .80 5 SK103A 1707 2000 .92 .92 .85 .85 .84 .84 .85 .77 .71 .82 .87 .87 6 SK103B 1707 2000 .87 .90 .86 .89 .90 .88 .86 .81 .69 .72 .57 .56 7 SK104A 1731 2000 .74 .75 .81 .85 .88 .91 .82 .70 .79 .90 .90 8 SK104B 1734 2000 .80 .72 .72 .84 .90 .90 .82 .77 .65 .78 .79 9 SK105A 1720 2000 .60 .64 .76 .87 .89 .91 .94 .86 .59 .59 .88 .88 10 SK105B 1720 2000 .88 .88 .88 .86 .82 .84 .87 .82 .61 .56 .87 .88 11 SK106A 1590 2000 .40 .41 .45 .66 .83 .84 .87 .89 .90 .92 .87 .76 .77 .75 .75 .80 12 SK107A 1804 2000 .83 .88 .91 .75 .47 .58 .80 .81 13 SK107B 1804 2000 .82 .82 .88 .83 .63 .62 .88 .88 14 SK108A 1711 1930 .80 .79 .81 .90 .89 .87 .92 .88 .86 15 SK108B 1711 1930 .73 .83 .82 .91 .91 .89 .92 .79 .74 16 SK109A 1705 2000 .89 .91 .92 .92 .91 .92 .93 .81 .58 .70 .78 .78 17 SK109B 1624 2000 .58 .58 .58 .72 .87 .81 .77 .84 .80 .80 .88 .82 .69 .76 .78 .78 18 SK110A 1794 2000 .75 .79 .83 .88 .84 .70 .82 .83 .81 19 SK110B 1794 2000 .76 .73 .73 .93 .89 .84 .78 .79 .80 20 SK111A 1790 2000 .49 .70 .81 .91 .89 .76 .64 .79 .80 21 SK111B 1798 2000 .77 .78 .81 .87 .89 .81 .76 .87 .87 Av segment correlation .49 .50 .51 .69 .82 .80 .79 .81 .81 .83 .88 .82 .70 .72 .81 .81 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== SK101A 1739 to 1980 242 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .786) is: Lower 1767 -.011 1974 -.010 1833 -.007 1923 -.006 Higher 1977 .011 1773 .009 1899 .008 1956 .004 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1956 -1.927 18 3 1974 -.751 18 2 1977 -5.384 18 5 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1752 +3.2 SD; 1767 -5.0 SD; 1847 +3.4 SD; 1899 -5.1 SD; 1974 -5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK101B 1715 to 1883 169 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .691) is: Lower 1761 -.019 1773 -.018 1793 -.010 1835 -.007 Higher 1729 .008 1883 .008 1735 .006 1864 .006 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1761 -1.320 13 2 1763 -1.514 13 1 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1722 +3.8 SD; 1761 -7.3 SD; 1763 -7.3 SD; 1773 +4.1 SD; 1822 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK102A 1811 to 2000 190 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .697) is: Lower 1816 -.012 1888 -.011 1814 -.011 1929 -.009 Higher 1977 .052 1899 .017 1820 .007 1959 .007 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1813 +3.3 SD; 1816 -4.7 SD; 1823 +3.2 SD; 1847 +4.4 SD; 1925 -4.7 SD; 1929 +3.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK102B 1938 to 2000 63 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .782) is: Lower 1987 -.026 1990 -.020 1956 -.015 1985 -.014 Higher 1977 .139 1959 .004 1969 .004 2000 .004 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1990 +3.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK103A 1707 to 2000 294 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .820) is: Lower 1990 -.019 1924 -.007 1919 -.006 1873 -.003 Higher 1847 .006 1977 .006 1773 .004 1996 .004 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1990 -1.679 17 3 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1919 -6.2 SD; 1924 +3.6 SD; 1990 -8.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK103B 1707 to 2000 294 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .785) is: Lower 1977 -.046 1984 -.007 1947 -.004 1983 -.004 Higher 1847 .011 1899 .008 1773 .006 1820 .005 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 4.4 SD [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -2.846 19 4 1984 -.427 17 1 1996 -1.627 17 3 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1773 -5.6 SD; 1947 +4.3 SD; 1977 +8.7 SD; 1978 +5.1 SD; 1984 -6.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK104A 1731 to 2000 270 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .826) is: Lower 1917 -.009 1942 -.009 1748 -.007 1841 -.004 Higher 1977 .019 1847 .006 1899 .006 1956 .003 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1748 +3.7 SD; 1847 -6.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK104B 1734 to 2000 267 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .806) is: Lower 1968 -.009 1833 -.008 1795 -.005 1970 -.005 Higher 1977 .028 1899 .008 1847 .007 1820 .004 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1896 -2.112 19 2 1899 -2.846 19 4 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1949 +3.0 SD; 1968 -4.9 SD; 1970 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK105A 1720 to 2000 281 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .792) is: Lower 1747 -.023 1748 -.016 1929 -.016 1981 -.006 Higher 1977 .028 1847 .009 1899 .006 1996 .005 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1747 1748 4.8 SD [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1747 1.133 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1761 -1.320 13 2 1883 -2.503 20 3 1996 -1.627 17 3 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1747 -7.7 SD; 1748 +4.2 SD; 1761 -5.8 SD; 1929 +5.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK105B 1720 to 2000 281 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .823) is: Lower 1929 -.012 1959 -.007 1914 -.004 1938 -.003 Higher 1977 .020 1773 .004 1924 .003 1847 .003 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 -6.6 SD 1977 1978 6.9 SD [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1929 +4.9 SD; 1959 +4.5 SD; 1977 -7.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK106A 1590 to 2000 411 years Series 11 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1590 to 1623 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .750) is: Lower 1751 -.021 1686 -.010 1666 -.009 1654 -.006 Higher 1977 .019 1847 .009 1773 .006 1638 .006 [D] 14 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1638 -3.062 2 1 Present in series 17 SK109B time span 1624 to 2000 1670 -4.273 2 1 Present in series 17 SK109B time span 1624 to 2000 1676 -.661 2 1 Present in series 17 SK109B time span 1624 to 2000 1682 -.095 2 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow Present in series 17 SK109B time span 1624 to 2000 1751 -.125 13 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1773 -2.658 13 3 1820 -2.002 20 1 1873 -.087 20 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1883 -2.503 20 3 1899 -2.846 19 4 1953 -.780 18 1 1956 -1.927 18 3 1977 -5.384 18 5 1996 -1.627 17 3 [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1634 +3.6 SD; 1654 +6.9 SD; 1655 +3.7 SD; 1666 -5.7 SD; 1686 +7.0 SD; 1698 +3.9 SD; 1751 -9.7 SD; 1820 -5.6 SD; 1901 +4.3 SD Note: 1901 value corrected from 332 to 070 4/17/2004 =================================================================================================================================== SK107A 1804 to 2000 197 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .755) is: Lower 1929 -.011 1941 -.009 1949 -.009 1921 -.008 Higher 1977 .022 1847 .017 1899 .012 1959 .006 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1917 +3.1 SD; 1919 +3.8 SD; 1929 -6.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK107B 1804 to 2000 197 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .812) is: Lower 1937 -.011 1918 -.009 1957 -.005 1921 -.003 Higher 1977 .035 1847 .012 1899 .006 1820 .006 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK108A 1711 to 1930 220 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .869) is: Lower 1924 -.008 1927 -.005 1821 -.003 1740 -.003 Higher 1847 .008 1773 .004 1729 .004 1820 .003 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.237 10 1 1773 -2.658 13 3 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1773 -5.4 SD; 1927 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK108B 1711 to 1930 220 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .830) is: Lower 1924 -.015 1723 -.010 1929 -.009 1718 -.006 Higher 1773 .009 1847 .009 1820 .005 1896 .004 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1723 .188 10 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1773 -2.658 13 3 1847 -3.683 20 1 1864 -1.669 20 2 1883 -2.503 20 3 1896 -2.112 19 2 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1723 -4.9 SD; 1924 -8.6 SD; 1929 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK109A 1705 to 2000 296 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .826) is: Lower 1996 -.012 1918 -.008 1984 -.004 1946 -.003 Higher 1977 .009 1847 .007 1773 .006 1899 .003 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1918 -5.0 SD; 1996 -6.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK109B 1624 to 2000 377 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .766) is: Lower 1666 -.012 1979 -.006 1686 -.006 1759 -.005 Higher 1977 .026 1670 .008 1773 .005 1638 .004 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1864 -1.669 20 2 1977 -5.384 18 5 [E] Outliers 8 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1629 +3.8 SD; 1630 +4.1 SD; 1631 +4.3 SD; 1654 -6.9 SD; 1666 +5.7 SD; 1686 -7.0 SD; 1938 +3.0 SD; 1979 -4.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK110A 1794 to 2000 207 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .797) is: Lower 1990 -.026 1927 -.006 1803 -.006 1989 -.004 Higher 1977 .034 1820 .006 1899 .006 1996 .006 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1977 -5.384 18 5 1990 -1.679 17 3 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1924 +3.2 SD; 1925 +3.6 SD; 1990 -7.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK110B 1794 to 2000 207 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .812) is: Lower 1974 -.013 1847 -.007 1969 -.006 1964 -.005 Higher 1899 .010 1996 .005 1820 .005 1896 .004 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -2.846 19 4 1956 -1.927 18 3 1974 -.751 18 2 1977 -5.384 18 5 1990 -1.679 17 3 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 +4.7 SD; 1956 -4.7 SD; 1974 -6.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK111A 1790 to 2000 211 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .767) is: Lower 1797 -.018 1958 -.011 1838 -.010 1960 -.005 Higher 1977 .037 1847 .012 1896 .005 1959 .005 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1790 +3.8 SD; 1813 -4.8 SD; 1825 +3.3 SD; 1838 -4.6 SD; 1925 -4.5 SD; 1958 +5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK111B 1798 to 2000 203 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .832) is: Lower 1934 -.005 1804 -.004 1970 -.004 1850 -.004 Higher 1977 .028 1847 .011 1899 .005 1820 .004 =================================================================================================================================== [*] All segments correlate highest as dated with correlation with master series over .3281 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Skutumpah Road 1 16:14 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 SK101A 1739 1980 242 10 0 .786 .46 .98 .196 .579 .378 2.69 .416 -.035 1 2 SK101B 1715 1883 169 7 0 .691 .56 1.31 .225 .565 .344 2.49 .362 -.020 3 3 SK102A 1811 2000 190 8 0 .697 .68 1.29 .252 .551 .293 2.65 .381 -.034 1 4 SK102B 1938 2000 63 3 0 .782 .45 .97 .141 .403 .282 2.39 .404 -.015 4 5 SK103A 1707 2000 294 12 0 .820 .60 1.48 .286 .579 .392 2.43 .333 -.037 1 6 SK103B 1707 2000 294 12 0 .785 .52 1.15 .216 .416 .408 2.83 .388 -.037 1 7 SK104A 1731 2000 270 11 0 .826 .54 1.61 .258 .643 .335 2.58 .338 -.026 2 8 SK104B 1734 2000 267 11 0 .806 .53 1.43 .236 .579 .353 2.53 .329 -.016 1 9 SK105A 1720 2000 281 12 0 .792 .77 2.52 .470 .749 .431 2.46 .331 -.036 1 10 SK105B 1720 2000 281 12 0 .823 .77 1.73 .357 .645 .376 2.36 .230 -.016 1 11 SK106A 1590 2000 411 16 0 .750 .63 3.32 .336 .422 .482 2.88 .381 -.013 1 12 SK107A 1804 2000 197 8 0 .755 .62 1.58 .267 .610 .315 2.53 .399 -.016 1 13 SK107B 1804 2000 197 8 0 .812 .74 1.81 .337 .690 .330 2.46 .350 -.016 1 14 SK108A 1711 1930 220 9 0 .869 .51 1.27 .240 .357 .491 2.50 .384 -.003 1 15 SK108B 1711 1930 220 9 0 .830 .49 1.17 .235 .409 .530 2.49 .366 -.005 1 16 SK109A 1705 2000 296 12 0 .826 .60 1.32 .235 .568 .336 2.48 .343 -.035 1 17 SK109B 1624 2000 377 16 0 .766 .47 1.90 .372 .878 .343 2.48 .278 -.027 1 18 SK110A 1794 2000 207 9 0 .797 .70 1.79 .402 .803 .349 2.46 .339 -.055 2 19 SK110B 1794 2000 207 9 0 .812 .56 1.73 .345 .754 .437 2.55 .488 -.049 1 20 SK111A 1790 2000 211 9 0 .767 .68 3.34 .429 .586 .295 3.09 .370 -.024 2 21 SK111B 1798 2000 203 9 0 .832 .53 1.39 .284 .753 .331 2.57 .367 -.028 2 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5097 212 0 .793 .59 3.34 .300 .603 .381 3.09 .355 -.026 - = [ COFECHA SKUT1COF ] = -