[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run SKUT2 Program COF 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Skutumpah Road 2 File of DATED series: ut522.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: SK2 1 Skutumpah Road #2 PIED Text in file: SK2 2 Utah Pinyon Pine 1900M 3728-11206 __ 1410 2000 Text in file: SK2 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1406 to 2000 595 years Continuous time span is 1406 to 2000 595 years Portion with two or more series is 1410 to 2000 591 years >> SK202B 1970 absent in 1 of 14 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.164 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 19 *C* *O* Master series 1406 2000 595 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 5496 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 5492 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .766 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .372 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 1 *A* *** Mean length of series 289.3 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) SK201A 3 absent rings: 1729 1735 1736 SK202A 1 absent rings: 1991 SK202B 4 absent rings: 1899 1959 1970 1977 SK203A 5 absent rings: 1703 1716 1729 1735 1813 SK203B 10 absent rings: 1665 1703 1729 1774 1782 1813 1864 1883 1896 1899 SK204A 6 absent rings: 1670 1751 1813 1847 1861 1864 SK204B 1 absent rings: 1729 SK207B 1 absent rings: 1977 SK208B 2 absent rings: 1959 1977 SK209A 4 absent rings: 1644 1735 1751 1847 SK209B 8 absent rings: 1670 1735 1751 1847 1899 1902 1959 1977 SK210A 5 absent rings: 1894 1896 1899 1936 1951 SK210B 3 absent rings: 1899 1904 1977 SK211A 1 absent rings: 1977 SK211B 2 absent rings: 1899 2000 56 absent rings 1.019% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================================> SK201A 1 1650 2000 351 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================> SK202A 2 1786 2000 215 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================> SK202B 3 1786 2000 215 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====================> . . . SK203A 4 1650 1870 221 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. . SK203B 5 1650 1940 291 . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========================> . . . SK204A 6 1600 1870 271 . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . . . SK204B 7 1600 1750 151 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> SK206A 8 1813 2000 188 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> SK206B 9 1813 2000 188 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> SK207A 10 1800 2000 201 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> SK207B 11 1800 2000 201 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<======================================> SK208A 12 1615 2000 386 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================================> SK208B 13 1590 2000 411 . . . . . . . . <============================================> . . . SK209A 14 1406 1850 445 . . . . . . . . .<==========================================================> SK209B 15 1410 2000 591 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================================> SK210A 16 1657 2000 344 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================================> SK210B 17 1657 2000 344 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======================> SK211A 18 1760 2000 241 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======================> SK211B 19 1760 2000 241 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1450 .076 2 1500 .398 2 1550 .445 2 1600 -1.560 5 1650 .041 9 1451 .739 2 1501 1.103 2 1551 -.180 2 1601 -.217 5 1651 .965 9 1452 -.158 2 1502 -.585 2 1552 .002 2 1602 -.165 5 1652 .672 9 1453 -.395 2 1503 -2.133 2 1553 .798 2 1603 -.221 5 1653 .505 9 1454 -1.053 2 1504 -1.762 2 1554 1.323 2 1604 .845 5 1654 -3.304 9 1455 .731 2 1505 .456 2 1555 .849 2 1605 .028 5 1655 .293 9 1406 1.793 1 1456 -.346 2 1506 .004 2 1556 2.004 2 1606 .941 5 1656 .604 9 1407 .802 1 1457 -1.227 2 1507 -2.531 2 1557 1.199 2 1607 .532 5 1657 -.164 11 1408 .669 1 1458 -.176 2 1508 .292 2 1558 .480 2 1608 .466 5 1658 -.214 11 1409 .695 1 1459 .893 2 1509 .295 2 1559 -.252 2 1609 -.193 5 1659 .335 11 1410 .593 2 1460 .996 2 1510 .495 2 1560 .875 2 1610 .207 5 1660 .888 11 1411 -1.190 2 1461 1.824 2 1511 .563 2 1561 .580 2 1611 .258 5 1661 .785 11 1412 .341 2 1462 1.055 2 1512 -.992 2 1562 -.882 2 1612 .892 5 1662 .244 11 1413 -.225 2 1463 -.344 2 1513 -1.878 2 1563 -1.958 2 1613 -.609 5 1663 -.931 11 1414 -1.569 2 1464 -1.635 2 1514 .315 2 1564 -1.977 2 1614 .289 5 1664 .380 11 1415 -1.151 2 1465 -.277 2 1515 .864 2 1565 -.713 2 1615 -.321 6 1665 -.730 11 1 1416 -.401 2 1466 -.199 2 1516 1.856 2 1566 -.301 2 1616 .007 6 1666 .330 11 1417 .880 2 1467 -1.551 2 1517 1.547 2 1567 -2.703 2 1617 .727 6 1667 -.838 11 1418 -.595 2 1468 .075 2 1518 .897 2 1568 -.272 2 1618 .660 6 1668 -.317 11 1419 -1.426 2 1469 1.672 2 1519 1.158 2 1569 1.075 2 1619 .648 6 1669 -1.061 11 1420 .803 2 1470 1.167 2 1520 .526 2 1570 .943 2 1620 .674 6 1670 -2.676 11 2 1421 .323 2 1471 -2.435 2 1521 .614 2 1571 .484 2 1621 .108 6 1671 .069 11 1422 -.363 2 1472 -.168 2 1522 -.010 2 1572 1.793 2 1622 -.230 6 1672 .433 11 1423 .653 2 1473 .174 2 1523 -1.643 2 1573 .207 2 1623 -.769 6 1673 .959 11 1424 .551 2 1474 1.366 2 1524 -.953 2 1574 -.045 2 1624 -.927 6 1674 1.303 11 1425 -.170 2 1475 .978 2 1525 -.463 2 1575 -.665 2 1625 -.242 6 1675 -.171 11 1426 .101 2 1476 .961 2 1526 -1.146 2 1576 .118 2 1626 -1.811 6 1676 -.129 11 1427 .076 2 1477 .885 2 1527 -2.393 2 1577 -.029 2 1627 -.410 6 1677 1.027 11 1428 -.131 2 1478 -.454 2 1528 -.965 2 1578 -.720 2 1628 -.926 6 1678 .848 11 1429 .239 2 1479 -.534 2 1529 -.689 2 1579 -1.374 2 1629 -.471 6 1679 .053 11 1430 1.545 2 1480 -.700 2 1530 .344 2 1580 .921 2 1630 .270 6 1680 .982 11 1431 1.535 2 1481 -1.404 2 1531 .682 2 1581 1.512 2 1631 .356 6 1681 .653 11 1432 1.014 2 1482 -3.363 2 1532 .145 2 1582 1.087 2 1632 -1.299 6 1682 .523 11 1433 .093 2 1483 -.153 2 1533 -.095 2 1583 -.064 2 1633 1.173 6 1683 .780 11 1434 .133 2 1484 .506 2 1534 -.614 2 1584 -.580 2 1634 -.502 6 1684 -1.013 11 1435 -.339 2 1485 .908 2 1535 -.313 2 1585 1.564 2 1635 .751 6 1685 -1.387 11 1436 .356 2 1486 .203 2 1536 -.861 2 1586 .474 2 1636 .163 6 1686 -2.883 11 1437 -.096 2 1487 -.724 2 1537 .439 2 1587 -1.589 2 1637 -.943 6 1687 .491 11 1438 .297 2 1488 .655 2 1538 .892 2 1588 -1.950 2 1638 .105 6 1688 .030 11 1439 -.455 2 1489 .697 2 1539 1.888 2 1589 .724 2 1639 .221 6 1689 -.049 11 1440 -1.510 2 1490 .053 2 1540 1.932 2 1590 .511 3 1640 .966 6 1690 -.142 11 1441 -.510 2 1491 1.318 2 1541 1.120 2 1591 -.078 3 1641 .664 6 1691 -.383 11 1442 1.633 2 1492 .284 2 1542 -.586 2 1592 .131 3 1642 .199 6 1692 .733 11 1443 .901 2 1493 .774 2 1543 -.836 2 1593 -1.246 3 1643 .407 6 1693 -.265 11 1444 .018 2 1494 -1.580 2 1544 .554 2 1594 .363 3 1644 -.423 6 1 1694 .775 11 1445 -.006 2 1495 -.145 2 1545 -.451 2 1595 -1.312 3 1645 .510 6 1695 .517 11 1446 -.290 2 1496 -.457 2 1546 -1.687 2 1596 -.057 3 1646 .010 6 1696 .304 11 1447 -3.632 2 1497 1.250 2 1547 -.698 2 1597 .571 3 1647 .929 6 1697 .885 11 1448 -1.778 2 1498 1.715 2 1548 -1.594 2 1598 .533 3 1648 -1.726 6 1698 -1.285 11 1449 1.576 2 1499 .581 2 1549 -1.517 2 1599 .932 3 1649 .212 6 1699 .243 11 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .129 11 1750 -.523 11 1800 -.947 16 1850 .931 18 1900 -.476 15 1950 -.144 14 1701 .861 11 1751 -.965 10 3 1801 -.382 16 1851 .642 17 1901 .452 15 1951 -1.712 14 1 1702 .604 11 1752 .078 10 1802 .548 16 1852 .716 17 1902 -1.791 15 1 1952 1.100 14 1703 -4.149 11 2 1753 -.084 10 1803 -1.512 16 1853 1.092 17 1903 -.203 15 1953 -.514 14 1704 .224 11 1754 -.717 10 1804 .317 16 1854 .339 17 1904 -2.042 15 1 1954 .804 14 1705 .613 11 1755 -1.937 10 1805 -1.744 16 1855 .538 17 1905 .355 15 1955 -.061 14 1706 .591 11 1756 -.542 10 1806 .174 16 1856 -.260 17 1906 .654 15 1956 -1.418 14 1707 -.811 11 1757 -.441 10 1807 .433 16 1857 -1.156 17 1907 .966 15 1957 .617 14 1708 .186 11 1758 .330 10 1808 -1.274 16 1858 -1.009 17 1908 .721 15 1958 .906 14 1709 -.943 11 1759 .668 10 1809 -.089 16 1859 -.840 17 1909 .168 15 1959 -1.774 14 3 1710 .704 11 1760 .838 12 1810 .586 16 1860 -1.288 17 1910 .380 15 1960 .052 14 1711 .279 11 1761 -.301 12 1811 1.152 16 1861 -1.910 17 1 1911 1.116 15 1961 -.644 14 1712 .245 11 1762 -.034 12 1812 -.001 16 1862 .751 17 1912 .649 15 1962 .690 14 1713 .438 11 1763 -1.204 12 1813 -1.574 18 3 1863 .401 17 1913 .348 15 1963 -1.263 14 1714 .373 11 1764 .506 12 1814 .570 18 1864 -.911 17 2 1914 .632 15 1964 -.767 14 1715 -.993 11 1765 -.633 12 1815 -.020 18 1865 .173 17 1915 .586 15 1965 .207 14 1716 -.673 11 1 1766 .890 12 1816 1.397 18 1866 .948 17 1916 .762 15 1966 .145 14 1717 -.455 11 1767 1.352 12 1817 1.066 18 1867 1.107 17 1917 .584 15 1967 .484 14 1718 .615 11 1768 1.327 12 1818 -.046 18 1868 1.515 17 1918 .010 15 1968 .816 14 1719 1.233 11 1769 .991 12 1819 1.060 18 1869 1.465 17 1919 .279 15 1969 1.271 14 1720 1.505 11 1770 -.172 12 1820 -1.269 18 1870 .402 17 1920 1.029 15 1970 -.164 14 1<< 1721 -.394 11 1771 .465 12 1821 .069 18 1871 -.982 15 1921 -.370 15 1971 .350 14 1722 -1.868 11 1772 .778 12 1822 -1.470 18 1872 .154 15 1922 .090 15 1972 .612 14 1723 .082 11 1773 -1.334 12 1823 -.377 18 1873 -.450 15 1923 .362 15 1973 1.375 14 1724 .679 11 1774 -1.130 12 1 1824 -.424 18 1874 .046 15 1924 -2.235 15 1974 -.366 14 1725 .928 11 1775 1.013 12 1825 .850 18 1875 .571 15 1925 -1.556 15 1975 .866 14 1726 1.079 11 1776 .108 12 1826 .443 18 1876 .110 15 1926 -.625 15 1976 -.006 14 1727 .848 11 1777 -.616 12 1827 -.230 18 1877 .220 15 1927 -.240 15 1977 -5.197 14 6 1728 .286 11 1778 -.205 12 1828 1.380 18 1878 -.377 15 1928 .781 15 1978 .284 14 1729 -2.568 11 4 1779 -.376 12 1829 -.450 18 1879 -.642 15 1929 -.740 15 1979 .572 14 1730 .238 11 1780 -1.736 12 1830 -.381 18 1880 -.239 15 1930 .165 15 1980 .994 14 1731 .438 11 1781 .302 12 1831 -1.983 18 1881 -.766 15 1931 -.200 15 1981 .096 14 1732 .529 11 1782 -1.252 12 1 1832 .774 18 1882 -1.649 15 1932 .970 15 1982 .207 14 1733 .161 11 1783 .034 12 1833 .566 18 1883 -2.661 15 1 1933 .216 15 1983 .748 14 1734 .476 11 1784 1.344 12 1834 -.228 18 1884 .542 15 1934 -.911 15 1984 -.964 14 1735 -2.325 11 4 1785 -.789 12 1835 .247 18 1885 1.458 15 1935 .785 15 1985 .522 14 1736 -1.772 11 1 1786 .752 14 1836 .188 18 1886 1.046 15 1936 -1.036 15 1 1986 .050 14 1737 -.431 11 1787 1.307 14 1837 .246 18 1887 .380 15 1937 -1.342 15 1987 -.048 14 1738 .844 11 1788 -.761 14 1838 .769 18 1888 .086 15 1938 .213 15 1988 .665 14 1739 -.246 11 1789 -.755 14 1839 .174 18 1889 .806 15 1939 -.422 15 1989 -.676 14 1740 -.299 11 1790 -.303 14 1840 .580 18 1890 1.310 15 1940 .244 15 1990 -1.651 14 1741 .289 11 1791 .919 14 1841 -1.081 18 1891 .975 15 1941 1.081 14 1991 -1.327 14 1 1742 -.996 11 1792 .661 14 1842 -.273 18 1892 .795 15 1942 1.172 14 1992 .335 14 1743 .817 11 1793 1.298 14 1843 .167 18 1893 .311 15 1943 1.116 14 1993 .901 14 1744 1.029 11 1794 .123 14 1844 .707 18 1894 -.642 15 1 1944 .849 14 1994 .220 14 1745 1.414 11 1795 .914 14 1845 -.554 18 1895 -.046 15 1945 .095 14 1995 1.024 14 1746 1.142 11 1796 -.827 14 1846 -.068 18 1896 -2.233 15 2 1946 -1.997 14 1996 -1.355 14 1747 1.669 11 1797 .946 14 1847 -3.323 18 3 1897 .360 15 1947 -.041 14 1997 .350 14 1748 -.451 11 1798 .149 14 1848 .363 18 1898 .644 15 1948 .064 14 1998 .856 14 1749 -.410 11 1799 .405 14 1849 1.284 18 1899 -3.000 15 6 1949 1.179 14 1999 .743 14 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 2000 -.804 14 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1450-----@ 1500------B 1550------B 1451--------C 1501---------D 1551---a 1452---a 1502--b 1552----@ 1453---b 1503i 1553--------C 1454-d 1504g 1554----------E 1455--------C 1505------B 1555--------C 1406----------G 1456---a 1506----@ 1556----------H 1407--------C 1457-e 1507j 1557----------E 1408--------C 1458---a 1508------A 1558-------B 1409--------C 1459---------D 1509------A 1559---a 1410-------B 1460---------D 1510-------B 1560---------C 1411-e 1461----------G 1511-------B 1561-------B 1412------A 1462---------D 1512-d 1562-d 1413---a 1463---a 1513h 1563h 1414f 1464g 1514------A 1564h 1415-e 1465---a 1515---------C 1565--c 1416---b 1466---a 1516----------G 1566---a 1417---------D 1467f 1517----------F 1567k 1418--b 1468-----@ 1518---------D 1568---a 1419-f 1469----------G 1519----------E 1569---------D 1420--------C 1470----------E 1520-------B 1570---------D 1421------A 1471j 1521-------B 1571-------B 1422---a 1472---a 1522----@ 1572----------G 1423-------C 1473-----A 1523g 1573-----A 1424-------B 1474----------E 1524-d 1574----@ 1425---a 1475---------D 1525--b 1575--c 1426-----@ 1476---------D 1526-e 1576-----@ 1427-----@ 1477---------D 1527j 1577----@ 1428----a 1478--b 1528-d 1578--c 1429-----A 1479--b 1529--c 1579-e 1430----------F 1480--c 1530------A 1580---------D 1431----------F 1481-f 1531--------C 1581----------F 1432---------D 1482m 1532-----A 1582---------D 1433-----@ 1483----a 1533----@ 1583----@ 1434-----A 1484-------B 1534--b 1584--b 1435---a 1485---------D 1535---a 1585----------F 1436------A 1486-----A 1536-c 1586-------B 1437----@ 1487--c 1537------B 1587f 1438------A 1488-------C 1538---------D 1588h 1439--b 1489--------C 1539----------H 1589--------C 1440f 1490----@ 1540----------H 1590-------B 1441--b 1491----------E 1541---------D 1591----@ 1442----------G 1492------A 1542--b 1592-----A 1443---------D 1493--------C 1543--c 1593-e 1444----@ 1494f 1544-------B 1594------A 1445----@ 1495----a 1545--b 1595-e 1446---a 1496--b 1546g 1596----@ 1447o 1497----------E 1547--c 1597-------B 1448g 1498----------G 1548f 1598-------B 1449----------F 1499-------B 1549f 1599---------D PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600f 1650----@ 1700-----A 1750--b 1800-d 1850---------D 1900--b 1950----a 1601---a 1651---------D 1701---------C 1751-d 1801---b 1851-------C 1901------B 1951g 1602---a 1652--------C 1702-------B 1752-----@ 1802-------B 1852--------C 1902g 1952---------D 1603---a 1653-------B 1703q 1753----@ 1803f 1853---------D 1903---a 1953--b 1604--------C 1654m 1704-----A 1754--c 1804------A 1854------A 1904h 1954--------C 1605----@ 1655------A 1705-------B 1755h 1805g 1855-------B 1905------A 1955----@ 1606---------D 1656-------B 1706-------B 1756--b 1806-----A 1856---a 1906-------C 1956-f 1607-------B 1657---a 1707--c 1757---b 1807------B 1857-e 1907---------D 1957-------B 1608-------B 1658---a 1708-----A 1758------A 1808-e 1858-d 1908--------C 1958---------D 1609---a 1659------A 1709-d 1759--------C 1809----@ 1859--c 1909-----A 1959g 1610-----A 1660---------D 1710--------C 1760--------C 1810-------B 1860-e 1910------B 1960----@ 1611-----A 1661--------C 1711------A 1761---a 1811----------E 1861h 1911---------D 1961--c 1612---------D 1662-----A 1712-----A 1762----@ 1812----@ 1862--------C 1912-------C 1962--------C 1613--b 1663-d 1713------B 1763-e 1813f 1863------B 1913------A 1963-e 1614------A 1664------B 1714------A 1764-------B 1814-------B 1864-d 1914-------C 1964--c 1615---a 1665--c 1715-d 1765--c 1815----@ 1865-----A 1915-------B 1965-----A 1616----@ 1666------A 1716--c 1766---------D 1816----------F 1866---------D 1916--------C 1966-----A 1617--------C 1667--c 1717--b 1767----------E 1817---------D 1867---------D 1917-------B 1967-------B 1618-------C 1668---a 1718-------B 1768----------E 1818----@ 1868----------F 1918----@ 1968--------C 1619-------C 1669-d 1719----------E 1769---------D 1819---------D 1869----------F 1919------A 1969----------E 1620--------C 1670k 1720----------F 1770---a 1820-e 1870------B 1920---------D 1970---a 1621-----@ 1671----@ 1721---b 1771-------B 1821----@ 1871-d 1921---a 1971------A 1622---a 1672------B 1722g 1772--------C 1822-f 1872-----A 1922-----@ 1972-------B 1623--c 1673---------D 1723-----@ 1773-e 1823---b 1873--b 1923------A 1973----------F 1624-d 1674----------E 1724--------C 1774-e 1824---b 1874----@ 1924i 1974---a 1625---a 1675---a 1725---------D 1775---------D 1825--------C 1875-------B 1925f 1975---------C 1626g 1676----a 1726---------D 1776-----@ 1826------B 1876-----@ 1926--c 1976----@ 1627---b 1677---------D 1727--------C 1777--b 1827---a 1877-----A 1927---a 1977u 1628-d 1678--------C 1728------A 1778---a 1828----------F 1878---b 1928--------C 1978------A 1629--b 1679----@ 1729j 1779---b 1829--b 1879--c 1929--c 1979-------B 1630------A 1680---------D 1730-----A 1780g 1830---b 1880---a 1930-----A 1980---------D 1631------A 1681-------C 1731------B 1781------A 1831h 1881--c 1931---a 1981-----@ 1632-e 1682-------B 1732-------B 1782-e 1832--------C 1882g 1932---------D 1982-----A 1633----------E 1683--------C 1733-----A 1783----@ 1833-------B 1883k 1933-----A 1983--------C 1634--b 1684-d 1734-------B 1784----------E 1834---a 1884-------B 1934-d 1984-d 1635--------C 1685-f 1735i 1785--c 1835-----A 1885----------F 1935--------C 1985-------B 1636-----A 1686l 1736g 1786--------C 1836-----A 1886---------D 1936-d 1986----@ 1637-d 1687-------B 1737---b 1787----------E 1837-----A 1887------B 1937-e 1987----@ 1638-----@ 1688----@ 1738--------C 1788--c 1838--------C 1888-----@ 1938-----A 1988-------C 1639-----A 1689----@ 1739---a 1789--c 1839-----A 1889--------C 1939---b 1989--c 1640---------D 1690----a 1740---a 1790---a 1840-------B 1890----------E 1940-----A 1990g 1641-------C 1691---b 1741------A 1791---------D 1841-d 1891---------D 1941---------D 1991-e 1642-----A 1692--------C 1742-d 1792-------C 1842---a 1892--------C 1942----------E 1992------A 1643------B 1693---a 1743--------C 1793----------E 1843-----A 1893------A 1943---------D 1993---------D 1644---b 1694--------C 1744---------D 1794-----@ 1844--------C 1894--c 1944--------C 1994-----A 1645-------B 1695-------B 1745----------F 1795---------D 1845--b 1895----@ 1945-----@ 1995---------D 1646----@ 1696------A 1746---------E 1796--c 1846----@ 1896i 1946h 1996-e 1647---------D 1697---------D 1747----------G 1797---------D 1847m 1897------A 1947----@ 1997------A 1648g 1698-e 1748--b 1798-----A 1848------A 1898-------C 1948----@ 1998---------C 1649-----A 1699-----A 1749---b 1799------B 1849----------E 1899l 1949----------E 1999--------C PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 2000--c PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1449 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SK201A 1650 2000 .54 .74 .81 .75 .73 .76 .77 .78 .82 .85 2 SK202A 1786 2000 .80 .87 .89 .86 .81 3 SK202B 1786 2000 .64 .65 .89 .85 .83 4 SK203A 1650 1870 .48 .56 .75 .69 .78 .85 .80 .84 5 SK203B 1650 1940 .75 .82 .85 .81 .78 .85 .74 .73 .85 .65 6 SK204A 1600 1870 .36 .59 .70 .78 .86 .81 .72 .77 .75 .77 7 SK204B 1600 1750 .53 .80 .84 .79 .84 .85 8 SK206A 1813 2000 .82 .81 .82 .86 9 SK206B 1813 2000 .68 .71 .87 .86 10 SK207A 1800 2000 .79 .83 .85 .82 11 SK207B 1800 2000 .86 .87 .86 .81 12 SK208A 1615 2000 .75 .82 .81 .80 .85 .87 .89 .81 .68 .72 .89 .84 13 SK208B 1590 2000 .24B .64 .79 .80 .80 .79 .81 .72 .77 .81 .78 .88 .78 14 SK209A 1406 1850 .33 .59 .67 .73 .78 .77 .68 .51 .53 .71 .78 .83 .91 .88 .86 .91 .82 .82 15 SK209B 1410 2000 .33 .59 .67 .73 .78 .77 .75 .48 .44 .62 .74 .79 .79 .82 .81 .84 .81 .79 .89 .85 16 SK210A 1657 2000 .88 .90 .92 .86 .84 .86 .80 .77 .71 .62 17 SK210B 1657 2000 .74 .71 .76 .81 .73 .77 .77 .79 .75 .68 18 SK211A 1760 2000 .81 .73 .77 .77 .87 .65 19 SK211B 1760 2000 .71 .76 .77 .79 .85 .87 Av segment correlation .33 .59 .67 .73 .78 .77 .72 .41 .54 .72 .73 .77 .83 .82 .78 .79 .78 .80 .84 .78 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1900 1925 1950 1975 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 SK201A 1650 2000 .77 .69 .74 .75 2 SK202A 1786 2000 .67 .74 .85 .86 3 SK202B 1786 2000 .76 .68 .75 .74 5 SK203B 1650 1940 .54 8 SK206A 1813 2000 .80 .70 .66 .67 9 SK206B 1813 2000 .80 .84 .92 .92 10 SK207A 1800 2000 .79 .80 .79 .80 11 SK207B 1800 2000 .82 .80 .67 .72 12 SK208A 1615 2000 .66 .67 .73 .70 13 SK208B 1590 2000 .61 .66 .64 .65 15 SK209B 1410 2000 .82 .81 .78 .81 16 SK210A 1657 2000 .63 .76 .76 .77 17 SK210B 1657 2000 .65 .78 .84 .85 18 SK211A 1760 2000 .54 .83 .87 .88 19 SK211B 1760 2000 .81 .81 .89 .89 Av segment correlation .71 .75 .78 .79 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== SK201A 1650 to 2000 351 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .746) is: Lower 1654 -.017 1701 -.004 1995 -.004 1698 -.004 Higher 1977 .014 1703 .013 1729 .006 1899 .004 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.568 11 4 1735 -2.325 11 4 1736 -1.772 11 1 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1654 +6.7 SD; 1813 +3.1 SD; 1847 -6.1 SD; 1956 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK202A 1786 to 2000 215 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .807) is: Lower 1921 -.007 1940 -.006 1991 -.006 1880 -.004 Higher 1899 .013 1847 .011 1977 .009 1959 .004 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1991 -1.327 14 1 =================================================================================================================================== SK202B 1786 to 2000 215 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .790) is: Lower 1810 -.046 1969 -.009 1934 -.007 1970 -.005 Higher 1977 .019 1899 .016 1924 .006 1959 .005 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -3.000 15 6 1959 -1.774 14 3 1970 -.164 14 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1810 -8.5 SD; 1934 +3.2 SD; 1970 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK203A 1650 to 1870 221 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .757) is: Lower 1662 -.010 1686 -.010 1665 -.009 1765 -.007 Higher 1703 .027 1847 .011 1735 .009 1729 .009 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1703 -4.149 11 2 1716 -.673 11 1 1729 -2.568 11 4 1735 -2.325 11 4 1813 -1.574 18 3 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1665 +3.4 SD; 1670 +3.2 SD; 1686 +4.7 SD; 1813 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK203B 1650 to 1940 291 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .768) is: Lower 1665 -.014 1924 -.011 1937 -.009 1774 -.008 Higher 1703 .016 1899 .012 1654 .007 1729 .005 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1665 -.730 11 1 1703 -4.149 11 2 1729 -2.568 11 4 1774 -1.130 12 1 1782 -1.252 12 1 1813 -1.574 18 3 1864 -.911 17 2 1883 -2.661 15 1 1896 -2.233 15 2 1899 -3.000 15 6 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1665 -6.1 SD; 1729 -5.8 SD; 1774 -6.2 SD; 1924 +4.2 SD; 1937 +4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK204A 1600 to 1870 271 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .733) is: Lower 1640 -.006 1621 -.006 1603 -.005 1808 -.004 Higher 1703 .018 1729 .008 1847 .007 1670 .006 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1670 -2.676 11 2 1751 -.965 10 3 1813 -1.574 18 3 1847 -3.323 18 3 1861 -1.910 17 1 1864 -.911 17 2 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1621 +3.3 SD; 1654 +3.4 SD; 1703 -8.2 SD; 1751 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK204B 1600 to 1750 151 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .751) is: Lower 1695 -.013 1629 -.008 1607 -.008 1612 -.007 Higher 1654 .019 1648 .008 1670 .008 1735 .006 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.568 11 4 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1629 +3.7 SD; 1729 -6.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK206A 1813 to 2000 188 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .767) is: Lower 1998 -.009 1981 -.007 1970 -.006 1968 -.005 Higher 1847 .013 1899 .008 1977 .007 1959 .006 =================================================================================================================================== SK206B 1813 to 2000 188 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .823) is: Lower 1822 -.009 1826 -.007 1921 -.007 1864 -.006 Higher 1977 .029 1899 .006 1847 .006 1924 .005 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1822 +3.3 SD; 1823 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK207A 1800 to 2000 201 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .797) is: Lower 1989 -.015 1914 -.010 1990 -.007 1800 -.006 Higher 1977 .032 1924 .006 1896 .004 1946 .004 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1989 +4.3 SD; 1990 +3.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK207B 1800 to 2000 201 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .831) is: Lower 1950 -.007 1981 -.005 1800 -.004 1983 -.004 Higher 1977 .029 1847 .006 1902 .003 1831 .002 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1950 +3.2 SD; 1977 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK208A 1615 to 2000 386 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .773) is: Lower 1805 -.006 2000 -.005 1925 -.004 1944 -.004 Higher 1899 .009 1654 .006 1729 .004 1735 .004 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1703 +3.0 SD; 1805 +4.0 SD; 1910 -4.5 SD; 1925 -5.1 SD; 1977 +4.3 SD; 1990 -5.3 SD; 2000 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK208B 1590 to 2000 411 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1590 1639 3 -.03 -.10 .07 .02 .02 .14 .14 -.11 .21 -.28 .24|-.08 .11 .33*-.02 .04 .01 -.35 .19 -.20 .05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .708) is: Lower 1593 -.012 1959 -.011 1595 -.008 1920 -.006 Higher 1977 .015 1899 .008 1654 .008 1847 .007 1590 to 1639 segment: Lower 1593 -.100 1595 -.054 1592 -.026 1597 -.023 Higher 1626 .080 1600 .068 1633 .029 1634 .020 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1959 -1.774 14 3 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1593 +4.5 SD; 1595 +5.2 SD; 1596 +3.5 SD; 1654 -6.9 SD; 1703 +4.0 SD; 1937 -4.6 SD; 1959 -7.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK209A 1406 to 1850 445 years Series 14 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1406 to 1409 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .710) is: Lower 1422 -.008 1441 -.008 1428 -.008 1421 -.007 Higher 1703 .012 1847 .009 1447 .006 1654 .005 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1644 -.423 6 1 1735 -2.325 11 4 1751 -.965 10 3 1847 -3.323 18 3 [E] Outliers 9 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1420 +3.4 SD; 1421 +5.2 SD; 1434 +3.6 SD; 1441 +5.3 SD; 1482 -4.5 SD; 1587 +3.5 SD; 1627 +3.1 SD; 1644 -5.4 SD; 1670 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK209B 1410 to 2000 591 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .743) is: Lower 1422 -.007 1428 -.006 1441 -.006 1421 -.006 Higher 1977 .014 1847 .005 1447 .004 1899 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1421 1422 4.0 SD [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1670 -2.676 11 2 1735 -2.325 11 4 1751 -.965 10 3 1847 -3.323 18 3 1899 -3.000 15 6 1902 -1.791 15 1 1959 -1.774 14 3 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1421 -5.2 SD; 1422 +3.5 SD; 1428 +4.2 SD; 1441 -5.3 SD; 1471 +3.1 SD; 1482 +4.5 SD; 1977 -6.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK210A 1657 to 2000 344 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .795) is: Lower 1977 -.008 1921 -.007 1887 -.005 1882 -.004 Higher 1703 .013 1899 .005 1735 .004 1896 .002 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1894 -.642 15 1 1896 -2.233 15 2 1899 -3.000 15 6 1936 -1.036 15 1 1951 -1.712 14 1 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1977 +3.4 SD; 1990 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK210B 1657 to 2000 344 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .786) is: Lower 1928 -.008 1715 -.007 1890 -.005 1921 -.004 Higher 1977 .022 1899 .008 1729 .004 1735 .004 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -3.000 15 6 1904 -2.042 15 1 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1672 +3.1 SD; 1703 +3.3 SD; 1715 +4.1 SD; 1977 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK211A 1760 to 2000 241 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .771) is: Lower 1921 -.056 1911 -.005 1822 -.005 1785 -.004 Higher 1977 .034 1899 .013 1847 .004 1896 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1921 1922 4.5 SD [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1977 -5.197 14 6 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1822 +3.2 SD; 1921 -9.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== SK211B 1760 to 2000 241 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .826) is: Lower 1798 -.009 1800 -.008 1776 -.004 1764 -.004 Higher 1977 .020 1899 .011 1924 .003 1959 .003 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 -5.1 SD 1977 1978 4.8 SD [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1899 -3.000 15 6 2000 -.804 14 1 >> WARNING: Last ring in series is ABSENT [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1800 +3.3 SD; 1977 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Skutumpah Road 2 16:15 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 SK201A 1650 2000 351 14 0 .746 .28 .66 .117 .591 .351 2.45 .313 -.062 1 2 SK202A 1786 2000 215 9 0 .807 .69 1.96 .332 .759 .316 2.58 .463 -.014 1 3 SK202B 1786 2000 215 9 0 .790 .58 1.66 .383 .859 .382 2.54 .435 -.024 1 4 SK203A 1650 1870 221 8 0 .757 .30 .77 .162 .526 .478 2.57 .403 -.033 1 5 SK203B 1650 1940 291 11 0 .768 .32 .95 .159 .556 .435 2.53 .383 -.037 3 6 SK204A 1600 1870 271 10 0 .733 .37 1.46 .291 .870 .392 2.39 .260 -.022 2 7 SK204B 1600 1750 151 6 0 .751 .34 1.04 .164 .726 .328 2.46 .335 -.023 1 8 SK206A 1813 2000 188 8 0 .767 .62 1.42 .317 .753 .313 2.62 .405 -.014 1 9 SK206B 1813 2000 188 8 0 .823 .61 1.35 .266 .694 .296 2.38 .314 -.010 1 10 SK207A 1800 2000 201 8 0 .797 .60 1.25 .212 .351 .371 2.56 .328 -.028 1 11 SK207B 1800 2000 201 8 0 .831 .47 1.33 .214 .524 .384 2.43 .293 -.044 1 12 SK208A 1615 2000 386 16 0 .773 .55 1.58 .249 .745 .287 2.54 .391 -.007 1 13 SK208B 1590 2000 411 17 1 .708 .54 1.30 .264 .760 .324 2.49 .270 -.039 1 14 SK209A 1406 1850 445 18 0 .710 .33 1.14 .192 .725 .405 2.54 .395 -.026 1 15 SK209B 1410 2000 591 24 0 .743 .32 1.12 .171 .657 .393 2.39 .254 -.015 1 16 SK210A 1657 2000 344 14 0 .795 .43 1.50 .255 .686 .451 2.47 .327 -.041 1 17 SK210B 1657 2000 344 14 0 .786 .46 1.72 .301 .727 .420 2.46 .277 -.043 1 18 SK211A 1760 2000 241 10 0 .771 .62 3.28 .497 .874 .314 2.45 .316 -.050 1 19 SK211B 1760 2000 241 10 0 .826 .52 1.55 .299 .767 .353 2.42 .289 -.042 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5496 222 1 .766 .45 3.28 .246 .695 .372 2.62 .332 -.030 - = [ COFECHA SKUT2COF ] = -