Well's Draw, Utah - ut527 Additional Information Steve Gray Purpose of Collection: Climatology - Snowpack reconstruction Reference: Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, C.A. Woodhouse, J.L. Betancourt, D.B. Fagre, J.S. Littell, E. Watson, B.H. Luckman, and L.J. Graumlich. 2011. The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. Sciencexpress, Published online 9 June 2011. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201570 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : UT527.CRN Measurement file name : UT527.RWL Date checked : 07JUN11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 887 Ending year : 2001 Principal investigators: Steve Gray Site name : Well's Draw Site location : Utah Species information : PIED PINYON Latitude : 3950 Longitude : -11010 Elevation : 2145M Series intercorrelation: 0.824 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.436 Avg standard deviation : 0.101 Avg autocorrelation : 0.549 Number dated series : 31 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 0 Pct problem segments : 0.00 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw 16:55 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 950 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 wed401a 1416 2001 .82 .82 6 wed404b 1392 2000 .69 .65 .70 7 wed412a 1363 1772 .65 .68 .74 .56 9 wed403a 1272 1750 .81 .86 .87 .86 .84 .85 .83 .83 10 wed730b 1262 1578 .78 .83 .82 .85 .85 .84 .88 .87 11 wed535b 1396 2001 .80 .80 .83 13 wed531a 887 2001 .58 .55 .41 .63 .78 .54 .52 .70 .57 .59 .82 .83 .76 .61 .65 .80 .86 .83 .83 .88 14 wed534a 952 2001 .65 .66 .47 .66 .77 .69 .70 .76 .83 .85 .71 .56 .75 .82 .71 .71 .77 .82 .81 .73 15 wed411b 1357 1817 .89 .84 .83 .88 16 wed533a 1346 2001 .88 .90 .85 .84 .90 18 wed731b 1337 1953 .76 .82 .75 .75 .80 19 wed411a 1329 1823 .78 .85 .84 .86 .90 20 wed729b 1290 1651 .77 .76 .92 .83 .68 .76 .85 21 wed533b 1339 2001 .84 .86 .84 .84 .87 24 wed535a 1420 2001 .89 .89 25 wed813b 1279 1668 .73 .74 .81 .87 .83 .85 .91 27 wed403b 1307 1636 .84 .88 .96 .94 .93 .93 28 wed534c 1154 1398 .74 .83 .87 .79 .80 .77 .71 .84 .87 29 wed534b 1061 1447 .79 .76 .82 .76 .79 .86 .81 .71 .64 .55 .62 .85 .87 .88 .84 30 wed730a 1213 1546 .79 .80 .73 .81 .83 .85 .85 .87 .89 .86 31 wed730d 1190 1682 .79 .80 .81 .83 .87 .84 .82 .80 .84 .89 .86 Av segment correlation .62 .60 .44 .64 .78 .66 .68 .74 .73 .78 .80 .75 .76 .76 .76 .83 .84 .81 .83 .83 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw 16:55 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 wed727a 1888 2000 .62 .91 .92 2 wed536b 1890 2001 .78 .84 .88 3 wed527a 1455 2001 .67 .86 .68 .73 .83 .64 .60 .78 .83 .84 .84 .84 .90 .90 .86 .86 .87 .83 .85 .89 4 wed728a 1559 2001 .78 .81 .83 .86 .90 .90 .81 .85 .92 .92 .90 .90 .90 .75 .76 .83 5 wed401a 1416 2001 .88 .80 .81 .87 .63 .65 .76 .78 .82 .75 .70 .81 .88 .90 .89 .88 .88 .82 .79 .86 6 wed404b 1392 2000 .76 .72 .69 .75 .79 .74 .74 .82 .77 .78 .81 .81 .84 .88 .83 .83 .83 .73 .74 .81 7 wed412a 1363 1772 .56 .77 .81 .77 .51 .51 .73 .78 .81 .82 .77 .80 8 wed531d 1475 2001 .85 .88 .86 .88 .83 .81 .85 .86 .88 .89 .90 .93 .93 .91 .92 .92 .91 .89 .87 9 wed403a 1272 1750 .87 .92 .89 .85 .84 .82 .84 .82 .83 .82 .82 .82 10 wed730b 1262 1578 .83 .81 .79 .84 .84 11 wed535b 1396 2001 .90 .75 .70 .87 .85 .80 .80 .86 .92 .88 .89 .93 .94 .91 .89 .91 .89 .86 .88 .90 12 wed404a 1487 1980 .88 .82 .73 .78 .71 .72 .82 .87 .85 .75 .79 .90 .89 .87 .88 .87 .77 .67 .68 13 wed531a 887 2001 .89 .89 .87 .87 .92 .90 .89 .90 .90 .85 .87 .88 .91 .92 .89 .88 .88 .88 .91 .90 14 wed534a 952 2001 .73 .81 .80 .83 .89 .88 .82 .80 .87 .88 .85 .83 .88 .87 .87 .90 .85 .67 .82 .84 15 wed411b 1357 1817 .90 .90 .87 .83 .79 .83 .88 .86 .86 .87 .86 .84 .88 .79 16 wed533a 1346 2001 .90 .91 .67 .70 .89 .88 .87 .84 .82 .70 .62 .76 .90 .87 .83 .83 .86 .94 .91 .90 17 wed811q 1543 2001 .86 .85 .87 .83 .87 .92 .87 .84 .85 .88 .86 .86 .89 .91 .84 .87 .90 18 wed731b 1337 1953 .77 .71 .70 .53 .38 .57 .74 .71 .72 .54 .54 .69 .76 .79 .70 .65 .70 .80 .78 .73 19 wed411a 1329 1823 .89 .91 .91 .91 .89 .83 .80 .84 .89 .87 .89 .87 .88 .95 20 wed729b 1290 1651 .88 .90 .90 .81 .82 .90 .86 .83 21 wed533b 1339 2001 .89 .89 .87 .83 .85 .88 .85 .83 .79 .79 .89 .92 .92 .92 .91 .84 .82 .87 .91 .91 22 wed529a 1641 2001 .81 .82 .89 .92 .91 .92 .94 .94 .94 .92 .92 .92 .94 23 wed529b 1624 2001 .81 .82 .81 .81 .84 .86 .91 .91 .88 .90 .92 .92 .91 .94 24 wed535a 1420 2001 .86 .86 .90 .90 .90 .83 .79 .84 .84 .88 .92 .94 .93 .91 .93 .93 .91 .89 .91 .85 25 wed813b 1279 1668 .88 .83 .83 .86 .85 .82 .79 .73 26 wed401b 1471 2001 .73 .77 .82 .83 .71 .68 .74 .82 .85 .82 .72 .81 .89 .89 .90 .86 .85 .79 .77 .85 27 wed403b 1307 1636 .90 .91 .91 .92 .87 .90 .91 30 wed730a 1213 1546 .88 .87 .84 31 wed730d 1190 1682 .87 .83 .82 .88 .88 .72 .66 .83 .88 Av segment correlation .83 .84 .82 .82 .80 .78 .79 .82 .85 .82 .81 .84 .89 .89 .87 .87 .87 .82 .84 .86 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw 16:55 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1950 1975 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 wed727a 1888 2000 .64 .57 2 wed536b 1890 2001 .85 .87 3 wed527a 1455 2001 .80 .82 4 wed728a 1559 2001 .85 .85 5 wed401a 1416 2001 .85 .86 6 wed404b 1392 2000 .74 .70 8 wed531d 1475 2001 .87 .87 11 wed535b 1396 2001 .91 .90 12 wed404a 1487 1980 .71 13 wed531a 887 2001 .86 .87 14 wed534a 952 2001 .71 .74 16 wed533a 1346 2001 .86 .88 17 wed811q 1543 2001 .86 .87 21 wed533b 1339 2001 .78 .81 22 wed529a 1641 2001 .87 .88 23 wed529b 1624 2001 .88 .88 24 wed535a 1420 2001 .73 .76 26 wed401b 1471 2001 .88 .89 Av segment correlation .81 .82 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Well's Draw 16:55 Tue 07 Jun 2011 Page 13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 wed727a 1888 2000 113 5 0 .647 .26 .53 .104 .380 .434 2.74 .435 -.005 1 2 wed536b 1890 2001 112 5 0 .829 .23 .44 .084 .377 .363 2.57 .477 -.027 1 3 wed527a 1455 2001 547 22 0 .810 .25 .81 .116 .494 .400 2.64 .347 .010 1 4 wed728a 1559 2001 443 18 0 .846 .21 .55 .080 .257 .402 2.75 .393 .004 2 5 wed401a 1416 2001 586 24 0 .815 .17 .42 .076 .581 .366 2.64 .388 .026 1 6 wed404b 1392 2000 609 25 0 .761 .23 .70 .108 .694 .358 2.44 .285 .001 1 7 wed412a 1363 1772 410 16 0 .691 .24 .59 .088 .568 .300 2.49 .305 .015 6 8 wed531d 1475 2001 527 21 0 .885 .21 .65 .118 .545 .506 2.69 .388 .022 1 9 wed403a 1272 1750 479 20 0 .848 .22 .77 .118 .704 .386 2.63 .388 .006 1 10 wed730b 1262 1578 317 13 0 .836 .19 .67 .110 .722 .407 2.44 .335 -.011 1 11 wed535b 1396 2001 606 25 0 .866 .24 .94 .148 .507 .484 2.93 .427 .010 1 12 wed404a 1487 1980 494 20 0 .795 .20 .51 .079 .547 .340 2.56 .356 .019 1 13 wed531a 887 2001 1115 42 0 .788 .17 .75 .104 .532 .540 2.55 .258 -.004 1 14 wed534a 952 2001 1050 42 0 .786 .16 .70 .076 .585 .434 2.54 .338 .000 9 15 wed411b 1357 1817 461 18 0 .851 .23 .73 .108 .686 .372 2.54 .341 .012 1 16 wed533a 1346 2001 656 27 0 .847 .21 .61 .107 .606 .437 2.64 .330 .023 1 17 wed811q 1543 2001 459 19 0 .862 .30 .85 .131 .501 .379 2.65 .367 .004 1 18 wed731b 1337 1953 617 25 0 .725 .13 .28 .049 .416 .376 2.49 .294 -.010 1 19 wed411a 1329 1823 495 19 0 .871 .20 .71 .122 .769 .402 2.48 .304 .014 1 20 wed729b 1290 1651 362 15 0 .837 .23 1.00 .143 .617 .540 2.67 .440 -.006 1 21 wed533b 1339 2001 663 27 0 .872 .20 .53 .103 .482 .525 2.72 .394 .026 1 22 wed529a 1641 2001 361 15 0 .892 .23 .75 .114 .291 .540 2.64 .382 -.014 1 23 wed529b 1624 2001 378 16 0 .882 .26 .78 .131 .447 .493 2.58 .373 .005 1 24 wed535a 1420 2001 582 24 0 .890 .22 .59 .107 .339 .527 2.67 .410 .023 1 25 wed813b 1279 1668 390 15 0 .819 .22 .73 .128 .698 .469 2.49 .352 -.006 1 26 wed401b 1471 2001 531 22 0 .814 .17 .42 .071 .534 .363 2.60 .307 .018 1 27 wed403b 1307 1636 330 13 0 .895 .19 .58 .099 .567 .482 2.63 .465 .004 1 28 wed534c 1154 1398 245 9 0 .807 .13 .28 .052 .428 .433 2.43 .297 -.016 1 29 wed534b 1061 1447 387 15 0 .782 .14 .32 .055 .432 .397 2.45 .279 .000 1 30 wed730a 1213 1546 334 13 0 .855 .19 .67 .112 .729 .445 2.46 .320 -.016 1 31 wed730d 1190 1682 493 20 0 .836 .19 .69 .115 .735 .448 2.54 .337 -.042 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 15152 610 0 .824 .20 1.00 .101 .549 .436 2.93 .349 .005