Seward Composite - ak115 Additional Site Information Rosanne D'Arrigo Rob Wilson Gordon Jacoby Notes: Seward Composite, includes sites Alpine View, Death Valley, Hey Bear, and Hey Bear Upper. Project Title "Synthesis of Three Decades of Research on Tree Growth in Northern Forests in relation to Global Climatic Change" Reference: D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby. 2006. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352. COFECHA output: Chronology file name : AK115.CRN Measurement file name : AK115.RWL Date checked : 25APR12 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1389 Ending year : 2001 Principal investigators: Rosanne D'Arrigo Rob Wilson Gordon Jacoby Site name : Seward Composite Site location : Alaska Species information : PCGL WHITE SPRUCE Latitude : 6510 Longitude : -16215 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.648 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.207 Avg standard deviation : 0.202 Avg autocorrelation : 0.775 Number dated series : 53 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 20 Pct problem segments : 4.73 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Seward Composite 13:59 Wed 25 Apr 2012 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 HBB1B.se 1790 2001 .75 .70 .56 .69 .71 .80 .81 .71 2 AV01B.se 1797 2001 .56 .57 .61 .83 .87 .89 .82 .67 3 AV02A.se 1759 1960 .82 .84 .77 .73 .81 .82 .79 .76 4 AV03B.se 1849 1948 .54 .78 .80 .84 5 AV05B.se 1724 2001 .59 .58 .56 .43 .30B .46 .68 .69 .64 .47 .11B 6 AV15B.se 1831 2001 .75 .80 .71 .74 .75 .27B 7 AV16A.se 1819 2001 .31A .28A .78 .90 .82 .61 .59 8 AV18A.se 1809 2001 .76 .72 .85 .88 .73 .60 .70 9 AV18B.se 1790 2001 .66 .72 .60 .55 .62 .54 .41 .56 10 AV19A.se 1800 1999 .69 .73 .72 .71 .80 .80 .81 11 AV21A.se 1793 1926 .47 .42 .53 .81 .83 .82 12 AV21B.se 1794 1927 .53 .48 .47 .58 .69 .66 13 AV29A.se 1802 2001 .31A .56 .82 .79 .71 .78 .80 14 AV29B.se 1809 1973 .50 .56 .84 .89 .83 .77 15 DV?A1.se 1389 1569 .48 .34 .40 16 DV00A.se 1475 1645 .64 .58 .72 .53 .40 .47 17 DV00B.se 1479 1745 .61 .64 .74 .51 .41 .53 .40 .29B .42 .58 18 DV06A.se 1500 1682 .16B .27A .40 .42 .63 .60 .53 19 DV22B.se 1599 1935 .57 .55 .59 .53 .61 .60 .53 .54 .60 .57 .60 .80 .83 .83 20 DV29B.se 1771 1906 .46 .51 .41 .51 .74 .74 21 HB05B.se 1699 2001 .86 .86 .83 .83 .76 .40 .40 .79 .80 .81 .80 .62 22 HB07B.se 1821 2001 .27A .28A .72 .77 .73 .77 .68 23 HB13C.s 1623 2001 .52 .52 .53 .51 .51 .58 .60 .72 .62 .52 .70 .68 .66 .44 .28B 24 HB16A.se 1763 2001 .61 .67 .68 .60 .66 .76 .73 .56 .46 25 HB16B.se 1687 2001 .69 .70 .59 .47 .65 .65 .56 .72 .78 .73 .57 .44 26 HB20B.se 1859 1961 .45 .46 .60 .63 27 HB24B.se 1710 1849 .67 .64 .49 .45 .62 28 HB24B.se 1875 1959 .62 .67 .67 29 HB27A.se 1720 2001 .59 .63 .63 .48 .42 .58 .69 .72 .45 .30A .64 30 HB31A.se 1808 2001 .65 .48 .46 .50 .51 .46 .67 31 HB32A.se 1776 2001 .67 .60 .54 .83 .90 .90 .82 .78 32 HB32B.se 1697 1976 .69 .65 .63 .65 .64 .65 .74 .77 .85 .78 .62 .61 33 HBU02A.s 1819 1936 .47 .50 .78 .67 .62 34 HBU05A.s 1770 2001 .37 .46 .71 .72 .85 .90 .89 .89 .90 35 HBU05B.s 1753 2001 .65 .71 .70 .66 .75 .81 .86 .83 .76 36 HBU06.se 1723 1893 .66 .65 .66 .74 .69 .56 .59 37 HBU07B.s 1800 2001 .49 .52 .80 .83 .75 .63 .58 38 HBU08A.s 1765 1999 .25B .26A .28B .20B .52 .68 .77 .81 .61 39 HBU14A.s 1608 1769 .58 .44 .48 .45 .57 .74 40 HBU14B.s 1618 1807 .57 .58 .57 .64 .63 .62 .57 .57 41 HBU22A.s 1801 2001 .78 .64 .71 .79 .83 .80 .84 42 HBU22B.s 1864 2001 .78 .78 .81 .84 .82 43 HBU23A.s 1882 2001 .50 .72 .66 .65 44 HBU25B.s 1708 2001 .57 .70 .67 .67 .67 .67 .65 .64 .66 .64 .59 45 HBU25C.s 1728 2001 .69 .71 .74 .66 .66 .59 .63 .73 .49 .44 46 HBU26A.s 1823 2001 .43 .42 .67 .75 .84 .75 .80 47 HBU27A.s 1828 2001 .66 .77 .82 .90 .84 .58 48 HBU27A2. 1796 1984 .79 .72 .64 .65 .72 .89 .79 .76 49 HBU28.se 1880 1992 .78 .86 .90 .86 50 HBU30A.s 1840 1933 .40 .73 .80 .80 51 HBU30B.s 1854 1953 .69 .69 .69 .69 52 HBU32A.s 1740 2001 .73 .77 .85 .78 .68 .82 .89 .88 .79 .71 53 HBU34A.s 1850 2001 .52 .57 .79 .75 .68 Av segment correlation .58 .43 .53 .48 .45 .55 .52 .49 .61 .63 .65 .59 .62 .57 .56 .71 .75 .76 .69 .63 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Seward Composite 13:59 Wed 25 Apr 2012 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1975 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 HBB1B.se 1790 2001 .71 2 AV01B.se 1797 2001 .67 5 AV05B.se 1724 2001 .11B 6 AV15B.se 1831 2001 .26B 7 AV16A.se 1819 2001 .59 8 AV18A.se 1809 2001 .70 9 AV18B.se 1790 2001 .53 13 AV29A.se 1802 2001 .77 21 HB05B.se 1699 2001 .63 22 HB07B.se 1821 2001 .66 23 HB13C.s 1623 2001 .27B 24 HB16A.se 1763 2001 .44 25 HB16B.se 1687 2001 .44 29 HB27A.se 1720 2001 .64 30 HB31A.se 1808 2001 .67 31 HB32A.se 1776 2001 .77 34 HBU05A.s 1770 2001 .91 35 HBU05B.s 1753 2001 .75 37 HBU07B.s 1800 2001 .59 41 HBU22A.s 1801 2001 .84 42 HBU22B.s 1864 2001 .82 43 HBU23A.s 1882 2001 .66 44 HBU25B.s 1708 2001 .59 45 HBU25C.s 1728 2001 .44 46 HBU26A.s 1823 2001 .79 47 HBU27A.s 1828 2001 .57 52 HBU32A.s 1740 2001 .70 53 HBU34A.s 1850 2001 .68 Av segment correlation .61 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Seward Composite 13:59 Wed 25 Apr 2012 Page 12 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 HBB1B.se 1790 2001 212 9 0 .729 .46 1.17 .221 .850 .182 2.79 .383 -.053 1 2 AV01B.se 1797 2001 205 9 0 .764 .67 1.47 .188 .687 .176 2.52 .326 -.024 1 3 AV02A.se 1759 1960 202 8 0 .777 .55 1.58 .243 .831 .199 2.47 .286 -.051 1 4 AV03B.se 1849 1948 100 4 0 .754 .74 1.27 .226 .769 .158 2.41 .315 -.032 1 5 AV05B.se 1724 2001 278 12 3 .464 .51 1.22 .217 .824 .197 2.69 .415 -.027 1 6 AV15B.se 1831 2001 171 7 2 .636 .43 .74 .152 .811 .175 2.57 .424 -.011 1 7 AV16A.se 1819 2001 183 8 2 .654 .65 1.75 .352 .900 .199 2.56 .388 -.032 1 8 AV18A.se 1809 2001 193 8 0 .758 .51 1.34 .255 .879 .195 2.57 .390 -.021 2 9 AV18B.se 1790 2001 212 9 0 .564 .48 1.47 .291 .916 .212 2.51 .435 -.034 2 10 AV19A.se 1800 1999 200 7 0 .757 .69 1.82 .330 .814 .227 2.61 .414 -.012 1 11 AV21A.se 1793 1926 134 6 0 .686 1.11 2.18 .334 .744 .182 2.48 .387 -.012 2 12 AV21B.se 1794 1927 134 6 0 .588 1.00 1.87 .367 .799 .202 2.50 .431 -.011 1 13 AV29A.se 1802 2001 200 8 1 .670 .56 1.17 .201 .749 .200 2.49 .329 .019 2 14 AV29B.se 1809 1973 165 6 0 .751 .66 1.20 .202 .623 .207 2.58 .336 .015 2 15 DV?A1.se 1389 1569 181 3 0 .454 .30 .67 .105 .722 .195 2.60 .364 .010 1 16 DV00A.se 1475 1645 171 6 0 .565 .37 .68 .119 .432 .282 2.64 .418 -.019 1 17 DV00B.se 1479 1745 267 10 1 .505 .35 .70 .110 .566 .240 2.60 .341 -.038 1 18 DV06A.se 1500 1682 183 7 2 .389 .45 1.11 .207 .854 .197 2.66 .482 -.031 3 19 DV22B.se 1599 1935 337 14 0 .632 .28 .68 .118 .777 .223 2.77 .353 -.022 2 20 DV29B.se 1771 1906 136 6 0 .610 .40 .93 .196 .832 .225 2.58 .372 -.026 1 21 HB05B.se 1699 2001 303 13 0 .724 .28 .72 .124 .798 .227 2.43 .267 -.011 2 22 HB07B.se 1821 2001 181 8 2 .646 .43 .80 .114 .683 .176 2.54 .324 -.019 1 23 HB13C.s 1623 2001 379 16 2 .567 .30 .53 .084 .676 .172 2.52 .251 -.035 1 24 HB16A.se 1763 2001 239 10 0 .625 .48 1.45 .297 .916 .205 2.53 .350 -.050 3 25 HB16B.se 1687 2001 315 13 0 .630 .52 1.37 .253 .883 .198 2.51 .369 -.046 2 26 HB20B.se 1859 1961 103 4 0 .539 .73 1.65 .326 .772 .220 2.55 .486 .019 1 27 HB24B.se 1710 1849 140 5 0 .577 .29 .75 .112 .742 .204 2.92 .508 -.023 1 28 HB24B.se 1875 1959 85 3 0 .623 .23 .60 .111 .838 .253 2.61 .501 -.030 1 29 HB27A.se 1720 2001 282 12 1 .566 .38 1.46 .202 .866 .211 2.62 .430 -.033 2 30 HB31A.se 1808 2001 194 8 0 .531 .51 1.35 .255 .866 .180 2.46 .329 -.010 1 31 HB32A.se 1776 2001 226 9 0 .774 .55 1.67 .237 .793 .217 2.52 .336 -.029 2 32 HB32B.se 1697 1976 280 12 0 .680 .38 .96 .156 .769 .208 2.55 .348 -.019 2 33 HBU02A.s 1819 1936 118 5 0 .556 .96 2.37 .454 .864 .181 2.73 .461 -.025 1 34 HBU05A.s 1770 2001 232 10 0 .765 .37 .73 .148 .834 .194 2.52 .359 -.055 4 35 HBU05B.s 1753 2001 249 10 0 .744 .37 .86 .166 .855 .214 2.66 .402 -.013 2 36 HBU06.se 1723 1893 171 7 0 .632 .57 1.23 .162 .654 .174 2.70 .455 -.039 1 37 HBU07B.s 1800 2001 202 8 0 .681 .57 1.28 .253 .870 .174 2.47 .314 -.062 1 38 HBU08A.s 1765 1999 235 9 4 .525 .52 1.27 .234 .829 .203 2.69 .442 .007 1 39 HBU14A.s 1608 1769 162 6 0 .529 .37 .88 .122 .693 .194 2.63 .427 -.037 1 40 HBU14B.s 1618 1807 190 8 0 .591 .32 1.06 .137 .700 .223 2.76 .423 -.043 1 41 HBU22A.s 1801 2001 201 8 0 .785 .61 1.39 .221 .714 .210 2.69 .419 -.069 1 42 HBU22B.s 1864 2001 138 6 0 .794 .67 1.22 .218 .742 .177 2.52 .384 -.036 1 43 HBU23A.s 1882 2001 120 5 0 .587 .63 1.23 .166 .540 .192 2.78 .450 -.007 1 44 HBU25B.s 1708 2001 294 12 0 .616 .30 .72 .127 .782 .231 2.50 .284 -.044 1 45 HBU25C.s 1728 2001 274 11 0 .620 .27 .74 .124 .799 .238 2.61 .349 -.037 2 46 HBU26A.s 1823 2001 179 8 0 .686 .73 1.61 .236 .753 .175 2.63 .421 -.004 1 47 HBU27A.s 1828 2001 174 7 0 .763 .46 1.59 .268 .833 .231 2.64 .482 -.057 2 48 HBU27A2. 1796 1984 189 8 0 .729 .47 1.58 .243 .806 .249 2.70 .490 -.041 1 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Seward Composite 13:59 Wed 25 Apr 2012 Page 13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 49 HBU28.se 1880 1992 113 4 0 .830 .55 .90 .181 .485 .275 2.43 .418 -.018 1 50 HBU30A.s 1840 1933 94 4 0 .677 .73 1.19 .233 .618 .226 2.67 .377 -.053 1 51 HBU30B.s 1854 1953 100 4 0 .690 .68 1.52 .286 .764 .227 2.67 .511 -.021 1 52 HBU32A.s 1740 2001 262 11 0 .784 .32 .73 .115 .708 .224 2.65 .401 -.032 2 53 HBU34A.s 1850 2001 152 6 0 .660 .72 1.94 .457 .924 .194 2.96 .459 .035 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 10440 423 20 .648 .48 2.37 .202 .775 .207 2.96 .382 -.027