# Tibetan Plateau 440 Year August-September Temperature Reconstructions #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Service for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program # National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # Template Version 3.0 # Encoding: UTF-8 # NOTE: Please cite Publication, and Online_Resource and date accessed when using these data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigators, Title, and Online_Resource and date accessed. # # Online_Resource: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/28911 # Description: NOAA Landing Page # Online_Resource: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/asia/china/duan2019tibet-temp-model.txt # Description: NOAA location of the template # # Original_Source_URL: # Description: # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Archive: Climate Reconstructions # # Dataset DOI: # # Parameter_Keywords: air temperature #-------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2020-01-31 #-------------------- # File_Last_Modified_Date # Date: 2020-02-06 #-------------------- # Title # Study_Name: Tibetan Plateau 440 Year August-September Temperature Reconstructions #-------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Duan, J.; Ma, Z.; Li, L.; Zheng, Z. #-------------------- # Description_Notes_and_Keywords # Description: Tibetan Plateau August-September tree-ring-based surface air temperature reconstructions (1572-2014 CE), plus climate model simulations (2006-2049). # RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (wrt 1986-2005), respectively. # File updated 6-Feb-2020 to round data values to 4 decimal places. #-------------------- # Publication # Authors: Jianping Duan, Zhuguo Ma, Lun Li, Ziyan Zheng # Published_Date_or_Year: 2019-06-27 # Published_Title: August-September Temperature Variability on the Tibetan Plateau: Past, Present, and Future # Journal_Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres # Volume: 124 # Edition: # Issue: 12 # Pages: 6057-6068 # Report_Number: # DOI: 10.1029/2019JD030444 # Online_Resource: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030444 # Full_Citation: # Abstract: To assess the recent warming on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), some tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions have been performed. However, most of the previous studies focused on the local or regional scale. In this study, we analyzed the recent variability of August-September temperature using observations from 79 TP meteorological stations, and the observed records were extended back to 1,572 based on a tree-ring maximum density network comprising 17 sites. Moreover, the future August-September temperature scenarios on the TP are also presented using the ensemble mean of five regional climate models. The tree-ring maximum late-wood density network shows good capacity to reconstruct the August-September temperature variability at the spatial scale of the whole TP (i.e., 79-station average; r1951-2014 = 0.80, P < 0.01). The reconstruction suggests that the instrumental epoch is the warmest interval of August-September over the past four and a half centuries on the TP, and the decadal-scale August-September warming since the 1960s is unprecedented. The ensemble simulation of five regional climate models indicates that persistent August-September warming will occur on the TP in the future. The magnitude of August-September warming is approximately 1.56 ± 0.30C and 3.02 ± 0.29C over the period 2006-2049 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and P8.5 scenarios, respectively. These results imply a further ecological and environmental change on the TP linked to the persistent warming in the future. #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: National Key Research and Development Program of China # Grant: 2016YFA0600404 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: National Natural Science Foundation of China # Grant: 41875113, 41471035, 41101043 #------------------ # Site_Information # Site_Name: Tibetan Plateau # Location: Asia>Eastern Asia> Tibetan Plateau # Country: China # Northernmost_Latitude: 40 # Southernmost_Latitude: 26 # Easternmost_Longitude: 105 # Westernmost_Longitude: 78 # Elevation: #------------------ # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Duan2019Tibet-Temp-model # Earliest_Year: 2006 # Most_Recent_Year: 2049 # Time_Unit: CE # Core_Length: # Notes: #------------------ # Chronology_Information # Chronology: # #---------------- # Variables # # Data variables follow are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Data line variables format: one per line, shortname-tab-variable components (what, material, error, units, seasonality, data type,detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data, free text) # ## age_CE age, , , year Common Era, , Paleoclimate Modeling, , ,N, ## RCP4.5 air temperature, , , degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP4.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP4.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 ## RCP4.5+1SE air temperature, , +1RMSE, degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP4.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP4.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 ## RCP4.5-1SE air temperature, , -1RMSE, degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP4.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP4.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 ## RCP8.5 air temperature, , , degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP8.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP8.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 ## RCP8.5+1SE air temperature, , +1RMSE, degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP8.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP8.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 ## RCP8.5-1SE air temperature, , -1RMSE, degrees C, August-September,Paleoclimate Modeling,anomalized,,N, RCP8.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP8.5 scenarios; anomalies with respect to 1986-2005 # #---------------- # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing Values: # Notes: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean model-simulated August-September mean temperature based based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (wrt 1986-2005), respectively. # age_CE RCP4.5 RCP4.5+1SE RCP4.5-1SE RCP8.5 RCP8.5+1SE RCP8.5-1SE 2006 0.2613 0.6821 -0.1596 1.7770 2.5656 0.9885 2007 0.4278 0.6421 0.2135 0.6783 0.8370 0.5195 2008 1.1849 1.5054 0.8643 0.5268 0.6926 0.3610 2009 1.0910 1.4272 0.7549 -0.1661 -0.1191 -0.2130 2010 0.7399 0.9468 0.5330 1.1827 1.4740 0.8915 2011 0.6716 0.9639 0.3793 1.2431 1.4731 1.0132 2012 0.2808 0.6020 -0.0405 0.7953 1.0782 0.5124 2013 2.5558 2.8907 2.2208 1.2296 1.6818 0.7774 2014 1.7397 2.2670 1.2123 0.9583 1.3010 0.6156 2015 0.4671 0.6829 0.2514 0.5565 0.7773 0.3357 2016 0.5591 0.7863 0.3318 1.9755 2.5617 1.3893 2017 1.7412 2.1032 1.3792 0.9268 1.2017 0.6519 2018 0.8734 1.1507 0.5960 1.2527 1.4850 1.0205 2019 0.4195 0.5983 0.2406 1.1536 1.2889 1.0183 2020 1.9491 2.1918 1.7064 1.2969 1.5434 1.0505 2021 0.9071 1.2158 0.5985 2.6196 3.4701 1.7692 2022 1.5436 1.7214 1.3658 2.3457 2.6059 2.0854 2023 1.9716 2.1452 1.7980 2.4213 3.1755 1.6671 2024 0.5987 0.7966 0.4008 1.8118 2.1351 1.4885 2025 1.3586 1.4801 1.2371 1.5669 1.6628 1.4711 2026 1.1384 1.2719 1.0049 1.5720 1.8296 1.3143 2027 2.2840 2.6661 1.9019 2.7211 3.4329 2.0093 2028 2.0928 2.2154 1.9702 1.7785 1.8611 1.6959 2029 1.6015 1.9166 1.2865 1.5212 1.6848 1.3575 2030 0.7707 1.0163 0.5250 2.6580 3.3236 1.9924 2031 1.7181 2.0289 1.4073 2.0381 2.3632 1.7130 2032 2.0756 2.3488 1.8024 2.1477 2.6396 1.6558 2033 1.1277 1.3466 0.9087 2.3634 2.7008 2.0260 2034 1.0743 1.1764 0.9722 1.2700 1.6295 0.9104 2035 1.7599 2.2278 1.2919 2.4394 2.9122 1.9666 2036 2.1528 2.5341 1.7715 3.2291 3.7984 2.6597 2037 2.8428 3.3352 2.3504 3.8465 4.3270 3.3661 2038 1.7601 2.1671 1.3531 3.2864 3.7839 2.7890 2039 1.7459 1.8835 1.6082 2.7086 3.1762 2.2411 2040 1.0414 1.2571 0.8256 3.2207 3.9071 2.5342 2041 2.0576 2.2269 1.8883 2.3733 2.6609 2.0856 2042 1.3979 1.7674 1.0284 3.0078 3.3504 2.6652 2043 1.8265 2.1187 1.5342 4.0474 4.6769 3.4180 2044 1.8847 2.1886 1.5808 3.3233 3.7745 2.8721 2045 1.5579 1.7229 1.3929 2.8640 3.1220 2.6061 2046 2.4691 2.9381 2.0000 3.2664 3.6476 2.8852 2047 3.1520 3.5612 2.7427 3.7997 4.3900 3.2095 2048 2.8060 3.2891 2.3229 3.7016 4.1318 3.2715 2049 2.0242 2.3799 1.6685 3.0708 3.4908 2.6508