Southern Jordan Precipitation Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Southern Jordan Precipitation Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 5/2007 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Ramzi Touchan, The University of Arizona IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2007-047 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Touchan, R., et al. 2007. Southern Jordan Precipitation Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2007-047. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Touchan, R., D. Meko, and M.K. Hughes. 1999. A 396-Year Reconstruction of Precipitation in Southern Jordan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 49-59, February 1999. ABSTRACT: Water resources are the lifeblood of the Near East region. Careful planning and management of water resources in dry land regions requires information on the likelihood of extreme events, especially prolonged drought. It is essential to understand the variability of climate on time scales of decades to centuries to assign reasonable probabilities to such events. Tree-ring analysis is one way to increase our knowledge of the climate variability beyond the short period covered by the instrumental data. In this paper, we reconstruct October-May precipitation from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan to gain a longterm (A.D. 1600-1995) perspective on runs of dry years and on time series fluctuations in precipitation averaged over several years. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. The longest reconstructed drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 217.4 mm, was four years, compared with three years for the 1946-95 instrumental data. A Monte Carlo analysis designed to account for uncertainty in the reconstruction indicates a lower than 50 percent chance that the region has experienced drought longer than five years in the past 400 years. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Southern Jordan PERIOD OF RECORD: 1600 - 1995 AD DESCRIPTION: October-May precipitation reconstruction derived from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan. Tree Ring Site: Dana Reserve and Tor Al-Iraq Data available from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html The reconstruction equation, derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices, explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. DATA: Southern Jordan Precipitation Reconstruction Year October-May Precipitation, mm. 1600 217.951 1601 247.583 1602 241.485 1603 280.725 1604 213.962 1605 247.812 1606 235.972 1607 287.283 1608 302.255 1609 197.622 1610 301.698 1611 296.175 1612 232.725 1613 226.573 1614 220.992 1615 296.175 1616 167.659 1617 206.773 1618 217.348 1619 204.493 1620 264.121 1621 131.377 1622 278.915 1623 356.273 1624 276.096 1625 181.689 1626 233.371 1627 226.992 1628 240.15 1629 379.369 1630 269.046 1631 291.56 1632 200.194 1633 284.379 1634 263.147 1635 220.177 1636 192.754 1637 217.75 1638 252.2 1639 231.011 1640 256.191 1641 236.19 1642 201.679 1643 270.791 1644 275.077 1645 341.136 1646 295.628 1647 190.629 1648 153.715 1649 267.806 1650 227.833 1651 193.826 1652 302.255 1653 303.655 1654 241.485 1655 285.959 1656 163.832 1657 335.511 1658 230.585 1659 245.08 1660 298.924 1661 357.592 1662 307.607 1663 286.488 1664 147.32 1665 307.039 1666 255.011 1667 239.485 1668 283.592 1669 243.951 1670 286.223 1671 266.572 1672 296.449 1673 333.965 1674 267.312 1675 271.292 1676 252.433 1677 396.203 1678 237.283 1679 261.934 1680 129.688 1681 291.83 1682 272.045 1683 269.793 1684 228.676 1685 264.365 1686 313.922 1687 284.641 1688 112.7 1689 345.576 1690 224.283 1691 117.592 1692 160.24 1693 376.229 1694 300.863 1695 321.85 1696 291.83 1697 245.987 1698 137.968 1699 242.379 1700 264.854 1701 217.75 1702 194.723 1703 239.264 1704 263.147 1705 230.798 1706 271.292 1707 206.582 1708 278.915 1709 366.622 1710 328.761 1711 260.727 1712 224.076 1713 197.988 1714 264.61 1715 316.836 1716 208.306 1717 307.891 1718 279.173 1719 260.006 1720 290.217 1721 247.355 1722 229.311 1723 280.984 1724 259.047 1725 255.246 1726 210.434 1727 289.147 1728 239.264 1729 194.184 1730 134.446 1731 255.719 1732 244.854 1733 134.074 1734 279.689 1735 316.543 1736 284.116 1737 253.133 1738 305.06 1739 332.119 1740 359.911 1741 334.582 1742 278.915 1743 318.597 1744 283.33 1745 210.823 1746 327.852 1747 268.054 1748 153.431 1749 342.399 1750 213.173 1751 216.947 1752 317.128 1753 282.024 1754 276.096 1755 162.026 1756 229.947 1757 264.854 1758 265.589 1759 215.35 1760 346.856 1761 256.665 1762 260.246 1763 137.587 1764 292.1 1765 185.248 1766 256.191 1767 181.019 1768 250.806 1769 251.27 1770 219.365 1771 280.207 1772 236.845 1773 254.54 1774 261.934 1775 223.662 1776 318.008 1777 316.251 1778 111.046 1779 224.283 1780 233.155 1781 166.578 1782 177.377 1783 193.111 1784 200.935 1785 284.116 1786 136.826 1787 283.854 1788 257.377 1789 184.054 1790 305.907 1791 385.018 1792 183.375 1793 236.19 1794 234.018 1795 396.569 1796 236.408 1797 314.793 1798 425.41 1799 316.251 1800 143.162 1801 364.26 1802 283.33 1803 405.833 1804 219.771 1805 244.854 1806 244.176 1807 242.603 1808 249.881 1809 243.276 1810 189.576 1811 287.018 1812 205.82 1813 210.045 1814 157.016 1815 265.344 1816 222.632 1817 303.374 1818 289.949 1819 236.627 1820 301.698 1821 398.405 1822 375.187 1823 335.821 1824 288.08 1825 217.348 1826 215.151 1827 128.853 1828 329.674 1829 298.372 1830 312.187 1831 188.528 1832 333.965 1833 268.549 1834 243.051 1835 367.3 1836 300.863 1837 163.983 1838 225.946 1839 299.753 1840 244.402 1841 316.251 1842 250.343 1843 255.482 1844 272.296 1845 174.775 1846 212.386 1847 179.355 1848 189.576 1849 294.81 1850 274.316 1851 256.428 1852 292.91 1853 251.734 1854 166.425 1855 305.907 1856 240.372 1857 244.628 1858 213.37 1859 226.573 1860 220.584 1861 319.186 1862 252.666 1863 234.668 1864 283.854 1865 164.135 1866 291.83 1867 234.018 1868 225.738 1869 241.039 1870 144.224 1871 175.909 1872 256.191 1873 188.877 1874 242.379 1875 283.068 1876 346.215 1877 234.451 1878 305.907 1879 241.262 1880 279.173 1881 356.602 1882 356.602 1883 181.521 1884 277.887 1885 243.951 1886 239.264 1887 224.283 1888 246.215 1889 296.449 1890 261.934 1891 311.899 1892 300.03 1893 258.092 1894 221.81 1895 124.064 1896 311.611 1897 285.959 1898 236.408 1899 236.845 1900 302.535 1901 303.374 1902 207.346 1903 234.668 1904 258.569 1905 315.959 1906 255.955 1907 232.725 1908 379.369 1909 253.133 1910 245.987 1911 313.054 1912 235.319 1913 225.529 1914 229.523 1915 235.972 1916 192.754 1917 372.425 1918 416.083 1919 271.543 1920 208.691 1921 289.949 1922 234.668 1923 249.65 1924 277.63 1925 246.898 1926 201.866 1927 208.691 1928 276.096 1929 232.94 1930 298.096 1931 215.748 1932 220.584 1933 168.747 1934 293.181 1935 176.887 1936 136.826 1937 247.126 1938 230.798 1939 263.39 1940 327.549 1941 255.482 1942 263.147 1943 326.039 1944 315.667 1945 307.607 1946 279.431 1947 208.306 1948 251.502 1949 192.043 1950 223.662 1951 271.292 1952 334.892 1953 169.684 1954 315.667 1955 220.381 1956 266.08 1957 288.613 1958 135.944 1959 265.835 1960 202.613 1961 235.754 1962 199.64 1963 115.439 1964 214.952 1965 232.081 1966 235.102 1967 331.812 1968 301.419 1969 388.591 1970 158.035 1971 333.348 1972 406.208 1973 207.346 1974 391.835 1975 327.246 1976 144.49 1977 360.577 1978 190.806 1979 403.59 1980 238.823 1981 303.374 1982 259.526 1983 367.3 1984 148.825 1985 266.572 1986 306.756 1987 140.023 1988 216.947 1989 201.307 1990 251.502 1991 296.449 1992 323.042 1993 245.533 1994 243.726 1995 324.537