# California Current Winter Index (CCWI) 576 Year Reconstruction #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # NOTE: Please cite Publication, and Online_Resource and date accessed when using these data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigators, Title, and Online_Resource and date accessed. # # # Online_Resource: http://ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/17013 # # Original_Source_URL: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/black2014ccwi-physical.txt # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Archive: Climate Reconstructions #-------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2014-09-19 #-------------------- # Title # Study_Name: California Current Winter Index (CCWI) 576 Year Reconstruction #-------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Black, B.A.; Sydeman, W.J.; Frank, D.C.; Griffin, D.; Stahle, D.W.; García-Reyes, M.; Rykaczewski, R.R.; Bograd, S.J.; Peterson, W.T. #-------------------- # Description_and_Notes # Description: A 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling. # # Dataset 1 is the Physical time series used to calculate California Current Winter Index (CCWI). Mean winter (Jan-Mar) upwelling index (m3 s-1 100m-1) # averaged across two locations: 36ºN, 122ºW and 39ºN, 125ºW (UW_36N_39N). Mean winter precipitation (inches) averaged across NOAA NCDC California Divisions # 4 and 6 (Div_4_6_precip). Winter sea level at San Francisco (1898-2008) calculated from 238,367 hourly observations; records were at least 95% complete # for each year except 1978 (34%). A positive linear trend (R2 = 0.46) was removed given its possible association to tectonic processes or anthropogenic # sea-level rise (sea_level_detrended); values are dimensionless and have a mean of one. Winter Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), defined as the difference # in sea level pressure anomalies (monthly sea level pressure minus climatology) between the North Pacific High [35N,130W] and Darwin, Australia [10S,130E]. # The California Current Winter Index (CCWI) is defined as the leading principal component of winter sea level, winter upwelling, and winter NOI. # # Monthly-averaged values of Coastal Upwelling Index were obtained from the NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory at # http://www.pfel.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/upwelling/upwelling.html # # Monthly-averaged values of the Northern Oscillation Index were obtained from the NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory at # http://www.pfel.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html # # San Francisco sea level data were obtained from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center at http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/ # # Monthly averaged precipitation data (California Divisions 4 and 6) were obtained from: the National Climatic Data Center at # http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp # # Dataset 2 is the Marine biological time series. Winter copepod index, common murre egg laying date, Cassin’s auklet egg laying date, common murre # fledgling success, a splitnose rockfish otolith chronology, and the leading principal component (PC1bio) for all these marine biological time series # except copepods. Rockfish chronologies were generated by applying standard dendrochronology techniques to otolith growth-increment widths. # Seabird egg laying dates and breeding success (offspring pair-1) are from the Farallon Islands, approximately 48 km west of San Francisco Bay # (37.7°N, 123.0°W). The Copepod Community Index is the leading axis of a Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling ordination performed on a matrix of copepod # species abundance. Samples were collected 9 km offshore of Newport, Oregon (44.651°N; 124.181°W) on a biweekly to monthly basis beginning in 1996. # # The splitnose rockfish chronology and supporting data are available at NOAA Paleoclimatology Sclerochronology section at # http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/sclerochronology.html; a description of chronology-development procedures can be found in: # B. A. Black et al., Global Change Biol. 17, 2536-2545 (2011). # # A description of the Copepod Community Index can be found in: # J. E. Keister, E. Di Lorenzo, C. A. Morgan, V. Combes, W. T. Peterson, Global Change Biol. 17, 2498-2511 (2011). # # A description of the seabird laying dates and breeding success can be found in: # I. Schroeder, W. J. Sydeman, N. Sarkar, S. J. Bograd, F. B. Schwing, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 393, 211-223 (2009) and # B. A. Black et al., Global Change Biol. 17, 2536-2545 (2011). # # # Dataset 3 is the California Current Winter Index (CCWI) reconstruction from tree-ring data (see Table S2 in Black et al. 2014 # for a complete list of tree-ring chronologies used in the reconstruction). A nested bootstrapping approach (n=10,000 iterations) # was repeated at each change in sample depth (3 to 16). For each iteration, chronologies were randomly selected with replacement # and averaged into a composite chronology. Calendar years shared with CCWI (1948-2003) were randomly sampled with replacement and # the CCWI reconstruction was predicted using a rise-to-maximum function: CCWI reconstruction = a*(1-exp(-b*oak composite chronology)). # The 14 ensemble medians (Figure S4) were spliced together to form the final nested reconstruction. The ensemble median (the reconstruction) # is labeled P50 and bolded; also shown are the 1st, 5th, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. # # Dataset 4 is the California Current Winter Index (CCWI) reconstruction running standard deviation. The running standard deviation (21-year window) # was calculated for each ensemble member of the CCWI reconstruction (see Methods). The median of these 10,000 runs is labeled P50 and bolded; # also shown are the 1st, 5th, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. # # #-------------------- # Publication # Authors: Bryan A. Black, William J. Sydeman, David C. Frank, Daniel Griffin, David W. Stahle, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Steven J. Bograd, William T. Peterson # Published_Date_or_Year: 2014-09-19 # Published_Title: Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem # Journal_Name: Science # Volume: 345 # Edition: # Issue: 6203 # Pages: 1498-1502 # DOI: 10.1126/science.1253209 # Online_Resource: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6203/1498.short # Full_Citation: # Abstract: Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Science Foundation # Grant: 1130125 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration # Grant: Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: CALFED Ecosystem Restoration Program # Grant: ERP02-P30 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: NF-UBC Nereus Program # Grant: #------------------ # Site_Information # Site_Name: Central California Current Ecosystem # Location: North America>United States>California # Country: USA # Northernmost_Latitude: 39.0 # Southernmost_Latitude: 36.0 # Easternmost_Longitude: -121.0 # Westernmost_Longitude: -124.0 # Elevation: 0 m #------------------ # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Black2014CCWI-Physical # Earliest_Year: 1895 # Most_Recent_Year: 2008 # Time_Unit: AD # Core_Length: m # Notes: #------------------ # Chronology: # # # #---------------- # Variables # # Data variables follow that are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Data line variables format: Variables list, one per line, shortname-tab-longname-tab-longname components (9 components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, archive, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data) # ##age_AD age, , , Year AD, , , , ,N ##UW_36N_39N Upwelling index averaged across two locations: 36ºN - 122ºW and 39ºN - 125ºW, , , m3 s-1 100m-1, Jan-March, , , ,N ##Div_4_6_precip California Climate Divisions 4 and 6 precipitation, , , inches, Jan-March, , , ,N ##Sea_level_detrended Sea Level at San Francisco, , , , , , , detrended,N ##NOI Northern Oscillation Index, , , , Jan-March, , , difference in sea level pressure anomalies (monthly sea level pressure minus climatology) between the North Pacific High [35N-130W] and Darwin Australia [10S-130E],N ##CCWI California Current Winter Index (CCWI), , , , , , , leading principal component of winter sea level - winter upwelling - winter NOI,N # #---------------- # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing Values: # age_AD UW_36N_39N Div_4_6_precip sea_level_detrended NOI CCWI 1895 5.248333333 1896 3.43 1897 3.415 1898 1.13 0.971194991 1899 2.778333333 0.969406227 1900 1.671666667 1.008688756 1901 3.66 1.025655156 1902 2.811666667 0.994006678 1903 3.716666667 1.012114068 1904 3.503333333 0.997466343 1905 5.31 1.046449066 1906 6.793333333 1.035257256 1907 6.713333333 1.032149478 1908 3.128333333 0.996293078 1909 8.728333333 1.022113042 1910 2.916666667 0.981848827 1911 8.035 1.018872904 1912 2.825 0.997422924 1913 2.656666667 0.976515864 1914 6.503333333 1.033197753 1915 5.971666667 1.042708747 1916 7.943333333 1.015330228 1917 2.71 0.978718706 1918 3.928333333 0.988376615 1919 3.126666667 1.002332971 1920 3.005 0.988126259 1921 3.245 0.993448044 1922 4.105 0.984965568 1923 1.548333333 0.971943071 1924 1.828333333 0.969176963 1925 2.26 0.983083948 1926 2.645 1.015518531 1927 3.698333333 0.99028211 1928 2.15 0.990660202 1929 1.811666667 0.974545602 1930 3.835 1.006887822 1931 2.333333333 0.994556475 1932 2.81 0.985258453 1933 2.701666667 0.967188792 1934 1.705 0.987523814 1935 3.235 0.997050393 1936 3.905 1.000551693 1937 5.506666667 0.998041419 1938 6.19 1.022417641 1939 2.465 0.953800748 1940 5.448333333 1.026114675 1941 6.756666667 1.08097873 1942 2.331666667 1.022819687 1943 5.175 1.005356291 1944 3.726666667 0.988914991 1945 3.175 0.976727262 1946 30.5 1.956666667 0.975121913 1947 14.83333333 1.295 0.991153843 1948 35.66666667 1.795 0.979736493 1.593 0.611619992 1949 23.33333333 2.903333333 0.992268798 2.784 0.417886951 1950 20 2.903333333 0.966122518 2.604 0.697908608 1951 44.16666667 2.006666667 0.988427744 2.561 0.704905422 1952 38.16666667 5.413333333 1.017504341 0.817333333 0.070951274 1953 51.5 1.35 0.987936237 3.983666667 0.950230394 1954 8 4.018333333 1.006345362 0.099333333 -0.234853865 1955 38.16666667 2.281666667 0.975225025 4.792333333 1.032945815 1956 30.5 2.706666667 0.991149057 2.708333333 0.514106041 1957 17.5 3.095 0.991641577 -1.028 -0.041642115 1958 -41.66666667 5.98 1.04386471 -6.447666667 -2.021455922 1959 46 2.815 1.010716885 0.783 0.253539648 1960 31.16666667 2.875 0.989179169 0.796333333 0.350017884 1961 24.33333333 1.376666667 0.984878792 1.615333333 0.405498549 1962 8 4.466666667 0.997777284 0.753666667 -0.055565115 1963 2.833333333 3.171666667 1.000348785 0.343 -0.196081917 1964 72.83333333 1.775 0.971280269 4.566666667 1.493762111 1965 34.16666667 1.588333333 1.007073222 2.295666667 0.309894602 1966 17.66666667 1.33 0.994694546 0.248333333 0.052911156 1967 22.16666667 3.208333333 1.009495534 2.646 0.164824065 1968 -5.666666667 2.215 1.006424982 -0.841333333 -0.503970091 1969 2.666666667 7.251666667 1.043185472 -3.308333333 -1.133885309 1970 -9.833333333 3.111666667 1.018853179 -2.294333333 -0.868250578 1971 41.5 1.065 0.958936757 5.415 1.351051 1972 21.33333333 0.456666667 0.986264845 2.475 0.439047589 1973 15.33333333 5.283333333 1.030240105 -2.631 -0.737087653 1974 12.16666667 3.47 1.001485602 1.574333333 0.033204259 1975 18.83333333 3.171666667 0.98371991 1.216333333 0.310578118 1976 47.5 1.771666667 0.972178793 4.408 1.149318435 1977 53.66666667 1.673333333 0.964176653 3.099666667 1.194941286 1978 -25.66666667 7.521666667 1.032520989 -6.627333333 -1.692653147 1979 7.166666667 4.913333333 1.00435551 -1.614333333 -0.396867474 1980 16.66666667 6.558333333 1.034034557 -4 -0.911627782 1981 -4.666666667 3.495 1.000096886 -2.697 -0.601340148 1982 3.666666667 4.705 1.012190109 -1.235333333 -0.503276258 1983 -57.16666667 7.308333333 1.091735833 -10.65333333 -3.273653927 1984 30.5 0.656666667 1.003096332 2.851 0.373393228 1985 44.66666667 1.741666667 0.978215153 3.563333333 0.947886824 1986 -24.83333333 4.935 1.031189109 -3.617333333 -1.353130601 1987 4.333333333 2.553333333 0.989324637 -2.405333333 -0.318555746 1988 49.66666667 1.45 0.985349839 3.437666667 0.904444421 1989 15.66666667 1.781666667 0.958748405 3.327333333 0.814698977 1990 35.33333333 2.098333333 0.976936433 1.579666667 0.642518894 1991 10.83333333 4.49 0.987284324 -1.199 -0.085886904 1992 -16.33333333 4.681666667 1.040621001 -6.965666667 -1.716581124 1993 0.666666667 7.011666667 1.038904021 -5.469666667 -1.327011932 1994 12.66666667 2.635 0.985491989 -0.120666667 0.072027527 1995 -28 7.47 1.046624597 -6.339 -1.875475775 1996 6.333333333 4.16 1.011370322 -1.300666667 -0.466078085 1997 68.16666667 2.591666667 1.006567669 1.866 0.696495686 1998 -6 7.876666667 1.06767173 -7.541333333 -1.999245119 1999 29.66666667 2.738333333 0.982044012 2.766 0.628173953 2000 18 4.558333333 0.990887703 -0.246333333 0.055379418 2001 27.33333333 4.105 0.982891541 1.392 0.445686962 2002 30.16666667 1.176666667 0.971806312 2.484666667 0.73851672 2003 12 2.24 0.991125075 -1.053333333 -0.106217619 2004 20.66666667 2.46 0.997435961 1.411333333 0.175157153 2005 10 5.516666667 1.014566454 -2.547333333 -0.5910254 2006 29.16666667 3.443333333 1.003133615 2.09 0.277433559 2007 100.6666667 1.42 0.95868376 5.123666667 2.062927558 2008 78.16666667 3.618333333 0.966899663 5.051 1.667535529