Bavarian Forest Spring-Summer Precipitation Reconstructions ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Bavarian Forest Spring-Summer Precipitation Reconstructions LAST UPDATE: 4/2005 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Rob Wilson, Edinburgh University IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2005-037 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Wilson, R.J.S., et al.. 2005. Bavarian Forest Spring-Summer Precipitation Reconstructions. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2005-037. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Wilson, R.J.S., B.H. Luckman, and J. Esper. 2005. A 500 Year Dendroclimatic Reconstruction of Spring-Summer Precipitation from the lower Bavarian Forest Region, Germany. International Journal of Climatology Vol.25, pp. 611–630. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1150 ABSTRACT: This paper presents a 500 year March-August precipitation reconstruction for the Bavarian Forest region of southeast Germany based on a composite, well-replicated data set of 676 living and historical tree-ring width series from Norway spruce. Two versions of the chronology are developed. The cubic smoothing spline (SPL) chronology, standardized with a fixed 80 year spline function, retains decadal and higher frequency variation. The regional curve standardization (RCS) chronology uses regional curve standardization to retain additional lower frequency variation from the same data. Calibration (1879–1978) of these chronologies with March–August precipitation indicates they explain 40% (SPL) and 34% (RCS) of the variability in the instrumental precipitation record. The SPL reconstruction models the high-frequency variation better, whereas the RCS reconstruction tracks the low-frequency trends more robustly. It suggests that spring–summer precipitation was above the long-term average for the periods 1730–1810 and 1870–2000, about average between 1560 and 1610 and that significantly drier periods occurred during 1510–60, 1610–35, 1660–1730 and 1830–70. The low-frequency trends of the RCS reconstruction during the 19th century were verified by comparison with a regional precipitation series derived from 14 long precipitation records from central Europe. Better verification results were obtained using the original (non-homogenized) records over this interval. These results suggest that some low-frequency variability may have been removed during correction of these early records. Periods of synchronous decadal variability were observed between the SPL series and independent dendroclimatic reconstructions from central Europe. The RCS reconstruction is the first dendroclimatic precipitation reconstruction in Europe to capture low-frequency information. These long-term trends, however, are difficult to verify owing to the paucity of other proxy precipitation records in central Europe that portray low-frequency information. Further verification and testing of the RCS reconstruction will require the development of additional reconstructions from tree-rings (or other proxy data series) that similarly target low-frequency variability. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Bavarian Forest Region, Germany, West-central Europe. PERIOD OF RECORD: 1480-1978 AD FUNDING SOURCES: JE was supported by SNF (Grant No.2100–066628) and NCCR Climate, Switzerland. DESCRIPTION: 500 year March-August precipitation reconstructions for the Bavarian Forest region of southeast Germany, based on a data set of 676 living and historical tree-ring width series from Norway spruce. Two versions of the chronology and reconstruction are developed. The cubic smoothing spline (SPL) chronology, standardized with a fixed 80 year spline function, retains decadal and higher frequency variation. The regional curve standardization (RCS) chronology uses regional curve standardization to retain additional lower frequency variation from the same data. Calibration (1879-1978) of these chronologies with March-August precipitation indicates they explain 40% (SPL) and 34% (RCS) of the variability in the instrumental precipitation record. The SPL reconstruction models the high-frequency variation better, whereas the RCS reconstruction tracks the low-frequency trends more robustly. DATA: Bavarian Forest March-August Precipitation Reconstructions Column 1: Year Column 2: Precipitation Reconstruction based on cubic smoothing spline (SPL) chronology Column 3: Precipitation Reconstruction based on regional curve standardization (RCS) chronology Year SPL RCS 1480 460.6 503.2 1481 511.3 547.0 1482 530.8 485.8 1483 416.9 324.7 1484 490.9 430.7 1485 523.0 404.0 1486 511.1 411.9 1487 580.2 492.4 1488 560.4 436.2 1489 607.2 546.3 1490 448.4 393.9 1491 508.9 525.9 1492 544.3 519.5 1493 558.0 468.8 1494 497.5 464.2 1495 573.3 494.7 1496 562.8 520.9 1497 551.3 493.3 1498 429.8 405.9 1499 557.1 499.3 1500 607.0 561.5 1501 571.8 528.6 1502 439.0 424.1 1503 408.3 400.6 1504 459.5 405.3 1505 562.1 513.1 1506 548.1 513.9 1507 479.9 429.4 1508 478.4 441.3 1509 574.0 531.7 1510 583.0 512.8 1511 578.9 516.7 1512 461.0 403.0 1513 439.9 393.8 1514 463.9 399.6 1515 571.8 501.2 1516 440.2 394.4 1517 438.7 410.9 1518 444.5 390.2 1519 484.4 439.7 1520 504.9 459.7 1521 606.6 528.7 1522 512.1 455.4 1523 517.1 463.6 1524 513.5 467.6 1525 387.9 376.9 1526 602.4 502.6 1527 571.9 498.1 1528 584.5 497.5 1529 562.4 493.2 1530 510.9 463.9 1531 505.3 459.0 1532 483.9 427.5 1533 592.1 520.9 1534 480.5 430.4 1535 467.2 410.8 1536 427.3 385.7 1537 512.2 444.0 1538 405.8 366.4 1539 485.9 410.1 1540 425.2 375.2 1541 532.0 447.9 1542 607.2 511.2 1543 509.5 454.7 1544 486.4 449.5 1545 568.8 487.1 1546 404.0 357.5 1547 452.0 433.7 1548 441.9 402.5 1549 483.3 424.7 1550 510.1 480.7 1551 470.9 425.5 1552 427.9 403.9 1553 581.5 502.0 1554 430.4 424.0 1555 526.0 428.1 1556 472.2 427.1 1557 637.3 538.9 1558 551.9 525.3 1559 439.9 407.5 1560 464.0 435.3 1561 545.1 473.9 1562 620.2 546.9 1563 598.7 528.6 1564 473.8 459.5 1565 596.5 524.0 1566 514.6 490.3 1567 427.7 403.3 1568 577.0 483.9 1569 481.8 453.2 1570 550.2 501.9 1571 447.5 431.4 1572 449.9 415.3 1573 517.9 444.4 1574 596.4 546.1 1575 569.1 544.0 1576 545.2 491.3 1577 473.1 462.6 1578 473.0 425.1 1579 573.4 543.4 1580 426.7 434.0 1581 430.1 414.5 1582 542.4 482.3 1583 384.0 397.2 1584 494.0 461.4 1585 547.0 509.8 1586 469.1 456.5 1587 532.0 472.2 1588 624.1 542.4 1589 551.2 528.9 1590 446.2 420.2 1591 567.6 522.6 1592 585.8 514.4 1593 561.0 531.3 1594 433.4 423.5 1595 371.0 333.1 1596 467.1 438.0 1597 544.4 466.3 1598 587.3 504.3 1599 528.8 485.3 1600 522.0 456.7 1601 599.8 567.1 1602 430.2 435.9 1603 353.8 321.0 1604 577.9 523.6 1605 631.9 577.5 1606 618.6 562.3 1607 509.6 491.2 1608 439.8 444.8 1609 594.4 500.9 1610 431.3 418.5 1611 442.3 423.0 1612 597.7 521.6 1613 660.6 526.7 1614 445.8 410.8 1615 419.0 402.8 1616 330.5 311.9 1617 552.8 484.1 1618 579.4 465.3 1619 501.6 440.5 1620 507.9 439.3 1621 528.3 471.9 1622 591.3 513.7 1623 484.9 397.2 1624 471.7 409.5 1625 503.8 409.1 1626 503.7 420.7 1627 599.8 511.5 1628 563.4 490.5 1629 482.7 451.1 1630 403.6 394.1 1631 470.1 430.6 1632 565.0 500.1 1633 511.7 469.2 1634 522.6 486.1 1635 432.1 413.1 1636 336.0 327.9 1637 546.3 480.6 1638 437.4 414.5 1639 635.9 551.9 1640 619.6 539.3 1641 539.1 508.0 1642 499.7 469.0 1643 445.1 426.6 1644 480.5 461.3 1645 513.7 440.7 1646 520.7 454.6 1647 484.8 457.3 1648 554.4 501.3 1649 598.0 515.0 1650 498.9 465.3 1651 478.2 439.6 1652 400.9 385.0 1653 431.3 391.5 1654 606.5 505.1 1655 554.6 487.3 1656 538.8 462.7 1657 574.4 515.6 1658 519.8 490.9 1659 507.8 457.5 1660 432.8 402.8 1661 572.2 510.2 1662 594.4 529.1 1663 559.8 489.6 1664 490.1 448.6 1665 395.0 378.7 1666 488.0 432.7 1667 527.1 461.0 1668 482.9 432.5 1669 417.3 383.6 1670 511.3 437.2 1671 484.0 424.3 1672 471.5 430.2 1673 600.9 518.2 1674 653.4 561.0 1675 591.7 516.6 1676 400.5 383.5 1677 436.1 384.7 1678 541.4 477.1 1679 464.3 419.0 1680 571.4 471.2 1681 481.2 448.0 1682 594.7 499.8 1683 422.8 400.8 1684 388.2 364.5 1685 554.9 473.4 1686 455.1 400.1 1687 435.0 376.2 1688 560.0 472.6 1689 579.1 487.6 1690 516.5 456.3 1691 549.5 477.1 1692 607.6 530.2 1693 571.5 499.5 1694 437.0 411.0 1695 541.8 458.6 1696 519.2 449.0 1697 454.1 400.1 1698 443.9 387.4 1699 577.9 473.3 1700 535.7 445.6 1701 512.3 440.7 1702 487.6 423.9 1703 573.1 466.6 1704 510.7 419.3 1705 503.7 438.1 1706 444.2 378.9 1707 414.6 325.8 1708 504.6 406.5 1709 572.8 441.7 1710 563.2 457.7 1711 514.4 439.8 1712 609.1 508.4 1713 619.8 510.0 1714 485.0 422.8 1715 467.0 419.7 1716 493.9 416.9 1717 463.4 430.9 1718 351.5 329.1 1719 415.9 391.5 1720 524.5 461.4 1721 573.2 501.2 1722 590.8 534.6 1723 474.2 436.6 1724 508.2 453.0 1725 477.6 444.7 1726 511.7 452.5 1727 564.9 496.8 1728 326.2 317.4 1729 535.1 441.2 1730 555.9 491.4 1731 463.9 453.0 1732 542.5 498.3 1733 521.9 502.6 1734 656.3 599.4 1735 571.2 542.0 1736 529.9 506.6 1737 598.2 553.6 1738 594.7 568.3 1739 437.6 449.3 1740 506.8 466.0 1741 577.4 546.1 1742 478.2 469.3 1743 526.9 483.2 1744 510.3 481.1 1745 451.6 426.6 1746 360.2 352.5 1747 520.4 460.5 1748 449.4 425.9 1749 594.7 523.6 1750 508.9 472.6 1751 512.7 478.8 1752 515.9 475.9 1753 360.1 383.5 1754 572.2 500.7 1755 499.2 463.2 1756 452.2 461.9 1757 489.8 484.1 1758 519.7 458.6 1759 531.2 497.4 1760 494.7 462.3 1761 525.7 468.4 1762 458.2 444.3 1763 550.7 515.9 1764 474.9 444.6 1765 565.3 507.5 1766 487.9 468.5 1767 510.3 493.1 1768 524.5 491.7 1769 654.9 595.6 1770 636.9 592.0 1771 595.7 582.8 1772 516.1 497.0 1773 305.7 314.5 1774 538.4 501.3 1775 485.9 463.4 1776 471.6 464.3 1777 525.1 503.0 1778 446.5 436.4 1779 482.1 466.2 1780 522.5 516.3 1781 491.6 502.3 1782 487.7 494.5 1783 527.0 527.7 1784 426.5 460.3 1785 619.9 588.3 1786 550.2 535.6 1787 507.9 503.0 1788 457.1 451.0 1789 518.9 478.1 1790 442.4 446.6 1791 557.3 517.5 1792 480.4 476.5 1793 468.7 466.6 1794 379.3 377.5 1795 564.5 515.0 1796 569.2 539.3 1797 509.2 501.1 1798 576.1 541.9 1799 543.0 530.1 1800 505.8 507.7 1801 593.1 562.3 1802 497.3 484.8 1803 478.7 476.0 1804 588.4 543.7 1805 594.2 550.9 1806 507.5 483.4 1807 394.4 418.8 1808 548.2 511.0 1809 549.5 500.5 1810 478.3 458.8 1811 420.6 421.5 1812 422.5 414.6 1813 579.2 519.0 1814 529.5 495.0 1815 541.6 503.6 1816 549.7 506.1 1817 515.8 477.2 1818 456.4 430.8 1819 488.2 454.5 1820 504.4 456.1 1821 511.2 463.2 1822 436.8 403.0 1823 466.4 419.9 1824 605.4 525.0 1825 525.2 474.7 1826 482.6 450.4 1827 446.8 414.5 1828 601.8 542.5 1829 552.3 503.6 1830 532.3 492.5 1831 611.1 550.1 1832 515.3 477.1 1833 484.2 441.1 1834 374.8 332.9 1835 438.9 366.1 1836 457.8 387.0 1837 472.6 400.2 1838 506.8 444.2 1839 500.7 450.1 1840 521.1 474.0 1841 481.0 426.0 1842 468.7 419.4 1843 624.6 543.1 1844 600.2 536.9 1845 561.6 497.5 1846 487.0 451.4 1847 553.0 498.6 1848 485.1 450.3 1849 455.1 415.4 1850 517.3 461.6 1851 531.4 476.4 1852 529.9 477.7 1853 591.8 510.4 1854 566.0 500.1 1855 466.1 419.7 1856 504.5 435.1 1857 430.1 397.3 1858 442.8 391.9 1859 538.8 452.3 1860 516.9 440.8 1861 538.9 475.9 1862 491.1 434.0 1863 516.3 472.8 1864 478.7 458.4 1865 420.2 407.5 1866 508.8 454.7 1867 508.2 444.2 1868 431.7 403.6 1869 488.7 423.6 1870 429.1 401.5 1871 601.7 524.0 1872 569.3 525.3 1873 520.1 471.5 1874 441.4 425.5 1875 536.3 538.4 1876 491.2 460.3 1877 501.5 452.9 1878 608.9 540.5 1879 611.8 525.2 1880 559.8 535.8 1881 516.6 541.8 1882 555.6 546.4 1883 516.9 523.8 1884 479.9 472.3 1885 457.6 440.4 1886 487.3 501.9 1887 476.5 455.3 1888 547.9 493.3 1889 488.4 470.2 1890 574.2 550.5 1891 543.0 534.0 1892 471.3 486.9 1893 476.5 495.3 1894 558.0 533.4 1895 582.6 554.3 1896 591.6 576.5 1897 577.7 524.2 1898 477.8 471.3 1899 428.1 441.7 1900 477.0 477.3 1901 532.0 540.4 1902 477.6 483.2 1903 440.7 468.4 1904 439.5 453.2 1905 441.3 439.9 1906 556.2 481.6 1907 469.5 402.9 1908 465.7 465.7 1909 545.3 569.6 1910 527.2 519.8 1911 470.9 482.1 1912 570.6 567.6 1913 560.7 538.0 1914 555.3 498.7 1915 415.2 442.7 1916 525.2 553.0 1917 426.6 443.6 1918 543.5 523.1 1919 543.5 512.8 1920 464.1 481.3 1921 317.9 323.9 1922 499.1 433.4 1923 562.6 578.9 1924 575.7 575.2 1925 576.3 584.5 1926 711.8 698.7 1927 546.2 566.5 1928 461.7 478.9 1929 458.1 456.9 1930 477.7 458.1 1931 534.1 547.0 1932 569.7 562.5 1933 482.7 447.2 1934 326.6 385.7 1935 506.1 484.4 1936 568.3 581.9 1937 531.8 565.1 1938 488.0 495.6 1939 560.1 570.8 1940 556.5 555.0 1941 539.5 522.9 1942 496.5 514.5 1943 556.0 545.2 1944 519.8 476.3 1945 488.5 515.1 1946 435.4 446.2 1947 447.9 448.7 1948 415.8 436.4 1949 536.4 527.1 1950 389.2 435.4 1951 444.2 473.4 1952 447.4 449.4 1953 484.4 482.0 1954 502.6 509.5 1955 586.4 602.5 1956 585.9 617.4 1957 585.2 610.0 1958 529.3 532.1 1959 551.8 577.5 1960 464.3 493.7 1961 544.7 549.7 1962 436.8 469.5 1963 502.4 505.4 1964 388.4 410.7 1965 542.8 551.7 1966 570.8 593.3 1967 529.7 558.7 1968 532.7 559.5 1969 537.3 563.3 1970 504.0 515.2 1971 478.2 488.6 1972 523.3 512.5 1973 480.6 475.3 1974 542.5 553.5 1975 494.5 510.8 1976 365.8 380.5 1977 601.2 590.0 1978 544.9 560.6